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The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has provided scientific stock advice based on reference points to manage fisheries in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas for decades. ICES advice integrates the precautionary approach with the objective of achieving maximum sustainable yield. Here, we examine ICES reference point evolution over the last 25 yr and provide a comprehensive empirical review of current ICES reference points for data-rich stocks (Category 1; 79 stocks). The consistency of reference point estimation with the ICES guidelines is evaluated. We demonstrate: (1) how the framework has evolved over time in an intergovernmental setting, (2) that multiple precautionary components and sources of stochasticity are included, (3) that the relationship and historical context of stock size and recruitment are crucial for non-proxy reference points, (4) that reference points are reviewed frequently, taking into account fluctuations and multiple sources of variability, (5) that there are occasional inconsistencies with the guidelines, and (6) that more comprehensive and clearer documentation is needed. Simplifying the stock-recruit typology and developing quantitative criteria would assist with this critically important classification. We recommend a well-documented, transparent, and reproducible framework, and periodic syntheses comparing applications across all stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Target and limit reference points are fundamental management components used to define sustainable harvest strategies. Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the precautionary principle underpin many reference points. Non-proxy reference points based on MSY in age-based single-species assessments depend on the stock–recruitment (SR) relationship, which can display complex variability. Current reference points ignore persistent dynamic change by assuming that the SR relationship is stationary and with constant recruitment parameters over selected time periods. We highlight Peterman's productivity method (PPM), which is capable of tracking temporal dynamics of recruitment productivity via time-varying SR parameters. We show how temporal variability in SR parameters affects fishing mortality and biomass MSY-based reference points. Implementation of PPM allows for integrated dynamic ecosystem influences in tactical management while avoiding overwrought and sometimes ephemeral mechanistic hypotheses tested on small and variable SR datasets. While some of these arguments have been made in individual papers, in our opinion the method has not yet garnered the attention that is due to it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many management bodies require applying the precautionary approach when managing marine fisheries resources to achieve sustainability and avoid exceeding limits. For data-limited stocks, however, defining and achieving management objectives can be difficult. Management procedures can be optimized towards specific management objectives with genetic algorithms. We explored the feasibility of including an objective that limited the risk of a stock falling below various limit reference points in the optimization routine for an empirical data-limited control rule that uses a biomass index, mean catch length, and includes constraints (the "rfb-rule"). This was tested through management strategy evaluation on several fish stocks representing various life-history traits. We show that risk objectives could be met, but more restrictive risk limits can lead to a potential loss of yield. Outcomes were sensitive to simulation conditions such as observation uncertainty, which can be highly uncertain in data-limited situations. The rfb-rule outperforms the method currently applied by ICES, particularly when risk limitation objectives are considered. We conclude that the application of explicit precautionary levels is useful to avoid overfishing. However, we caution against the indiscriminate use of arbitrary risk limits without scientific evaluation to analyse their impact on stock yields and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the Precautionary Approach requires providing advice that is robust to uncertainty. Therefore, when conducting stock assessment alternative, model structures and data sets are commonly considered. The primary diagnostics used to compare models are to examine residuals patterns to check goodness-of-fit and to conduct retrospective analysis to check the stability of estimates. However, residual patterns can be removed by adding more parameters than justified by the data, and retrospective patterns removed by ignoring the data. Therefore, neither alone can be used for validation, which requires assessing whether it is plausible that a system identical to the model generated the data. Therefore, we use hindcasting to estimate prediction skill, a measure of the accuracy of a predicted value unknown by the model relative to its observed value, to explore model misspecification and data conflicts. We compare alternative model structures based on integrated statistical and Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models using, as an example, Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna. Validation is not a binary process (i.e. pass or fail) but a continuum; therefore, we discuss the use of prediction skill to identify alternative hypotheses, weight ensemble models and agree on reference sets of operating models when conducting Management Strategy Evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many data-limited fish stocks worldwide require management advice. Simple empirical management procedures have been used to manage data-limited fisheries but do not necessarily ensure compliance with maximum sustainable yield objectives and precautionary principles. Genetic algorithms are efficient optimization procedures for which the objectives are formalized as a fitness function. This optimization can be included when testing management procedures in a management strategy evaluation. This study explored the application of a genetic algorithm to an empirical catch rule and found that this approach could substantially improve the performance of the catch rule. The optimized parameterization and the magnitude of the improvement were dependent on the specific stock, stock status, and definition of the fitness function. The genetic algorithm proved to be an efficient and automated method for tuning the catch rule and removed the need for manual intervention during the optimization process. Therefore, we conclude that the approach could also be applied to other management procedures, case-specific tuning, and even data-rich stocks. Finally, we recommend the phasing out of the current generic ICES "2 over 3" advice rule in favour of case-specific catch rules of the form tested here, although we caution that neither works well for fast-growing stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the management of fish spawning aggregations (FSAs) often requires a precautionary approach that initially emphasizes conservation, understanding the dynamics of spawning and interactions with fishing activities can help identify long-term management solutions that balance conservation with utilization. We designed a parsimonious, per-recruit model to evaluate the potential effects of seven time-closure scenarios implemented during the spawning season on egg-production-per-recruit (EPR; a conservation metric) and yield-per-recruit (YPR; a fisheries metric) of Gulf corvina (Cynoscion othonopterus), a vulnerable marine fish that experiences persistent overfishing at its only known spawning grounds in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Five of seven scenarios provided measurable increases in EPR (11–48%) and were accompanied by proportional increases in YPR (29–36%) that resulted in a sustainable fishery. Increased mortality of juveniles and small adults through targeted fishing or as bycatch in other fisheries, however, would erode both the fisheries and conservation benefits of these time closures. Our results demonstrate that information on spawning and fishing activities can be combined with stakeholder input to identify regulations that permit the sustainable harvesting of FSAs. Furthermore, the implementation of brief, temporal fishing effort restrictions can represent a viable, less restrictive alternative to marine protected areas for the management of FSAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The endangered New Zealand sea lion, Phocarctos hookeri is killed as incidental bycatch in a trawl fishery operating near their second largest population on Campbell Island in New Zealand's sub-Antarctic. Using the Potential Biological Removal (PBR) procedure to assess the sustainability of this bycatch for the sea lion population on Campbell Island indicated that annual bycatch estimates, particularly following the implementation of bycatch mitigation measures, are below the PBR threshold of 25 (derived using a precautionary approach). Preliminary Population Viability Analysis (PVA) modelling supported the finding that current bycatch levels, especially given a strong male bias (98%) in bycatch, are sustainable for this population. Models showed that reducing pup mortality through management actions, such as installing ramps in wallows where large numbers of pups drown, would lead to increased population growth. While obtaining more accurate data on population status and demographic parameters for the Campbell Island population should be a priority, this will take many years of research. The PBR and PVA tools demonstrate that contemporary conservation management should continue to focus on increasing pup survival while maintaining mitigation approaches that have reduced bycatch to low levels, together with high observer coverage to sustain confidence in annual bycatch estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the evidence attributing sentience-pain-suffering to aquatic animals. The objective is to inform readers of the current state of affairs, to direct attention to where research is needed, and to identify "wicked" questions that are difficult to resolve unequivocally. By separating the ethical from the scientific debate, applying organized skepticism to the latter, and taking a pragmatic approach that does not depend on resolving the "wicked" questions, we hope to focus and strengthen research on aquatic animal welfare. A second but closely-related objective is to briefly summarize the research used to support the regulations governing the welfare of aquatic animals, particularly its limitations. If you interact with aquatic animals, these regulations already affect you. If the regulatory environment continues on its current trajectory (adding more aquatic animal taxa to those already regulated), activity in some sectors could be severely restricted, even banned. There are surely some lively debates and tough choices ahead. In the end, extending legal protection to aquatic animals is a societal choice, but that choice should not be ascribed to strong support from a body of research that does not yet exist, and may never exist, and the consequences of making that decision must be carefully weighed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]