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Scenarios are central to fisheries and aquatic conservation research on climate change. Scenarios project future greenhouse-gas emissions, which climate models translate into warming projections. Recent climate research and global development trends have significantly changed our understanding of plausible emissions pathways to 2100 and climate sensitivities to emissions. Here, we review these developments and make recommendations for scenario use in fisheries and aquatic conservation research. Although emissions pathways are uncertain, recent research suggests that scenarios producing ∼3.4–4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing by 2100 (e.g. scenarios SSP2-3.4 and SSP2-4.5/RCP4.5) might be most plausible. This corresponds to ∼2–3 degrees C global warming by 2100 with median climate sensitivities, or 1.5–4 degrees C considering climate-system uncertainties. Higher- and lower-emissions scenarios (e.g. RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) might be plausible and should be explored in research. However, high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, SSP3-7.0) seem implausible and should be used with clear rationales and caveats to ensure results are not misinterpreted by scholars, policymakers, and media. We analyse fisheries and aquatic conservation papers published from 2015 to 2022 in major journals, and find that RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 are the most commonly used scenarios, though RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 use has increased since 2020. Studies predominantly project quantitative rather than qualitative differences between these scenarios' impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South eastern Australia is a global warming hotspot, and is also home to ~70% of Australia's population and one of Australia's largest fisheries—the South East Scalefish and Shark Fishery. This fishery spans shelf to deep waters, subtropical to temperate waters, employs many gears, and interacts with over 100 species. Despite following best practice fisheries management principles, including taking an ecosystem perspective to overall fisheries interactions, management interventions have failed to arrest or recover the decline of some focal species. Using an Atlantis ecosystem model developed for the fishery over the past 20 years, this paper presents simulations that suggest climate change may be a major contributor to the trajectories seen for a number of species—such as jackass morwong (Nemadactylus macropterus), blue warehou (Seriolella brama), and gemfish (Rexea solandri). This kind of climate influence poses many challenges for fisheries management into the future, raising questions about what to do when climate change undermines or overrides fisheries management actions and objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean acidification has become one of the most intensively studied climate change topics and it is expected to have both direct and indirect impacts on species, ecosystems, and economies. Experiments have been performed on different taxa, life stages, and at different pH levels. Despite this wealth of information, several key challenges remain, including (1) uncertainty about how to incorporate current pH ranges and variability experienced by organisms into experiments, and (2) how to bring this information together to support analysis and assessments at the broader ecosystem level. Sophisticated modelling tools are needed to 'scale-up' from experimental results to regional-scale insights. This paper highlights the challenges of combining information to determine how commercially exploited species may be affected under future pH levels, and how modelling and experimental results might be better aligned, using northwest Europe and the waters around the British Isles as an example. We argue that in most cases the current evidence does not offer sufficient information into impacts at projected pH levels, and that future experiments should be designed to consider the pH levels actually experienced by organisms, as well as variability in pH. These types of study are key in safeguarding commercially exploited shellfish stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title of this paper is intended in the sense of both "seeing through things", which requires critical, reflexive thinking and also in the sense of "seeing things through", which requires tenacity and patience. I address some of the concerns that I have about how we think through, structure, and write about science and I introduce three major research areas that I have been involved in: (i) studies of population dynamics of fish in the Irish Sea that lead to work on plankton dynamics and marine ecosystems, but with the problems of marine policy and management in mind, (ii) the ICES/GLOBEC Cod and Climate Change programme, and (iii) global marine food production and the work of the IPCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supporting resilience is a common goal of natural resource management, but managing under changing conditions that requires adaptation is a modern challenge. A state-of-the-art framework for implementing an integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA), the NOAA IEA approach, is used as an example to demonstrate whether and how assessment in ecosystem-based management (EBM), as often implemented in fisheries, can be expected to facilitate planned adaptation. Using comparisons with another assessment framework developed for implementing a climate change adaptation project, the United Nations Development Programme-Global Environment Facility Adaptation Policy Framework (UNDP-GEF APF), this paper expands and operationalizes the concepts of managing for resilience versus change in EBM as presented by West et al.(2009). It first introduces a variety of terms from climate change adaptation literature to help institutionalize "planned adaptation" as a useful concept within fisheries, then presents an expanded map of adaptive management processes in EBM. Finally, it proposes steps for enhancing processes supporting planned adaptation in individual applications of EBM in fisheries. Steps include (i) recognizing interest and funding for adaptation planning as prerequisites, (ii) evaluating what information or actors are lacking to implement better planning, and (iii) determining what institutional processes within an adaptive management cycle need augmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In June 2018, >600 scientists from over 50 countries attended the Fourth International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans (ECCWO-4). ECCWO-4 provided a forum for scientists to share information, build understanding, and advance responses to climate impacts on oceans and the many people, businesses and communities that depend on them. Seven Key Messages emerging from the symposium and relevant information from recently published literature are summarized. Recent scientific advances are improving our ability to understand, project, and assess the consequences of different levels of 21st century climate change for ocean ecosystems and ocean dependent communities. Outcomes of the symposium highlighted the need for on-going engagement with stakeholders, communities, and managers when considering the trade-offs associated with tactical and strategic opportunities for adaptation to climate change. Science informed adaptation frameworks that engage the public in their development are needed for effective management of marine resources in a changing climate. The summary provides a brief overview of the advances in climate-ocean science emerging from the symposium and provides context for the contributed papers within the broader socio-ecological advances of the discipline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper follows my journey from childhood in Missouri, where I saw my first jellyfish, to the oceans of the world. Pelagic cnidarians and ctenophores (“jellies”) have been the focus of my career. I think my work has been relevant to the broader scientific community because jellies are predators and potential competitors of fish. In my early research, I quantitatively estimated the predation effects of jellies on zooplankton and ichthyoplankton. I found that most jellies are selective predators, with a few species having diets of only fish larvae or soft-bodied prey. As I learned more about the physical environment that jellies encounter, my early reductionist approach evolved into a more holistic approach. I thought the asexual multiplication from the attached polyp stage would be fundamental in determining jellyfish population size and that the effects of environmental variables could be tested experimentally. It also seemed that humans have changed the natural environment in ways favoring jellies over fish and jelly populations may have increased in developed, eutrophic, hypoxic, overfished, and warming coastal waters. Many opportunities were available that gave me a global perspective. I have persisted despite some difficulties because I love to learn and I am still having fun! [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice, J. C., and Garcia, S. M. 2011. Fisheries, food security, climate change, and biodiversity: characteristics of the sector and perspectives on emerging issues. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1343–1353.This paper reviews global projections to 2050 for human population growth and food production, both assuming constant climate and taking account of climate-related changes in growing conditions. It also reviews statistics on nutritional protein requirements, as well as how those requirements are met by fish on a regional basis. To meet projected food requirements, the production of fish has to increase by ∼50% from current levels. The paper also summarizes the main pressures on marine biodiversity that are expected to result from the impacts of changing climate on marine ecosystems, as well as the management measures and policy actions promoted to address those pressures. It highlights that most of the actions being proposed to address pressures on marine biodiversity are totally incompatible with the actions considered necessary to meet future food security needs, particularly in less developed parts of the world. The paper does not propose a solution to these conflicting pulls on policies for conservation and sustainable use. Rather, it emphasizes that there is a need for the two communities of experts and policy-makers to collaborate in finding a single compatible suite of policies and management measures, to allow coherent action on these crucial and difficult problems. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate change is already transforming the seascapes of our oceans by changing the energy availability and the metabolic rates of the organisms. Among the ecosystem-engineering species that structure the seascape, marine animal forests (MAFs) are the most widespread. These habitats, mainly composed of suspension feeding organisms, provide structural complexity to the sea floor, analogous to terrestrial forests. Because primary and secondary productivity is responding to different impacts, in particular to the rapid ongoing environmental changes driven by climate change, this paper presents some directions about what could happen to different MAFs depending on these fast changes. Climate change could modify the resistance or resilience of MAFs, potentially making them more sensitive to impacts from anthropic activities (i.e. fisheries and coastal management), and vice versa , direct impacts may amplify climate change constraints in MAFs. Such changes will have knock-on effects on the energy budgets of active and passive suspension feeding organisms, as well as on their phenology, larval nutritional condition, and population viability. How the future seascape will be shaped by the new energy fluxes is a crucial question that has to be urgently addressed to mitigate and adapt to the diverse impacts on natural systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European fisheries are at a critical juncture. The confluence of political change and environmental change, along with the challenges of past Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) reforms such as the landing obligation, creates a once in a generation opportunity for a paradigm shift in fisheries management in the region. This paper sets out a series of arguments for why the status quo situation for the governance of European Union fisheries, especially for shared Northeast Atlantic fisheries is very likely unsustainable under these new circumstances. At stake is confidence in, and support for the management of the regions shared fisheries, the economic viability of fisheries and sustainability of stocks. Brexit is an additional incentive to unlock the potential of existing, but little used mechanisms within the CFP to allow the reimagining of fisheries management and governance in the Northeast Atlantic. Three of these tools and mechanisms are (i) Quota swapping, (ii) Article 16 quota uplift provisions, (iii) and Article 15 flexibility mechanisms. These mechanisms can be adopted by individual Member States for fleets in their waters or in the case of quota swapping be applied across Member States and may help stabilize fisheries under these stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans was held in Santos, Brazil, in March 2015, convened by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC), and organized locally by the Oceanographic Institute, University of Sao Paulo (IO-USP). The symposium was designed to do two things. First, to get updates on new scientific developments that would address recognized uncertainties that remained from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report and to contribute to building bridges between research in the natural and social sciences in respect to the human dimensions of climate change, with a focus on coastal communities, management objectives, governance and adaptation measures. The choice of the venue in Santos, Brazil, was aimed to stimulate and widen this thematic discussion in Latin America and southern Atlantic regions, where there still are important knowledge gaps and scientific, politic and societal challenges to be overcome. The meeting was attended by 280 participants from 38 countries, contributing 336 oral and poster presentations. This paper summarizes the main outcomes of the symposium and introduces a number of papers submitted to this special issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an ever-changing environment, detecting shifts in the spatial distribution of marine fish and understanding the relative importance of climate change and biotic factors impacting fish distributions can improve fisheries management. Coincident with the significant increase in Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) abundance to a historically high levels on Georges Bank (GB) in the last decade, extreme ocean temperature increase was also observed in this region. In this study, the possible seasonal and inter-annual spatial distribution changes of haddock were investigated with >50 years of bottom trawl survey data collected in spring and fall on GB. These data were analyzed using models with spatial, different temporal, and spatio-temporal autocorrelation structures. To characterize the directional changes in haddock spatial distribution, the Center of Gravity (CG) and Area of Occupancy (AO) in each season were estimated from the best model selected by Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The results showed substantial range expansion/contraction and distribution changes in both spring and fall over time. The relative role of density dependence, age structure, and climate change in affecting haddock distribution was evaluated using a generalized additive model (GAM). It was found that density-dependent habitat selection made the greatest contribution to the variations of AO in both seasons, which is consistent with the MacCall's Basin model theory. Rising ocean temperatures played a major role in shaping a northward distribution shift in fall. GB is the southern edge of haddock distribution in the Northwest Atlantic, continued warming from climate model projections in the next 50 years in this region could make it difficult to define stock boundaries between GB and adjacent Canadian and US domestic management areas. This would subsequently impact fishery management of haddock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 10th International Conference and Workshop on Lobster Biology and Management was held in Cancún, Mexico, in May 2014. The papers included in this supplementary issue of the ICES Journal of Marine Science are a sample of the multidisciplinary nature of the conference and provide new knowledge of the biology, ecology, fisheries, and management and aquaculture of clawed, spiny, and slipper lobsters. The emphasis of the conference was climate change and its consequences for lobster biology, population dynamics, ecology, and fisheries. As noted in several papers, climate change is already affecting different lobster species by altering growth rates, sizes at maturity, the timing of reproductive processes, duration of larval development, and the timing and levels of settlement; by affecting key benthic habitat-forming species in settlement habitats; by increasing the risk of disease and impacting the behavioural ecology of lobsters, and by changing the spatial distribution of the stocks and, hence, affecting catches and the territorial behaviour of fishers. Other issues addressed at the conference included aquaculture and enhancement—the holy grails of lobster management—sustainable management strategies, and a fascinating review of the use of lobsters through human history. In addition to their economic importance, lobsters continue to provide valuable information to understand different marine environments in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An international Open Science Meeting entitled Moving in, out, and across the Subarctic and Arctic marine ecosystems: shifting boundaries of water, ice, flora, fauna, people, and institutions, took place 11–15 June 2017 in Tromsø, Norway. Organized by the Ecosystem Studies of Subarctic and Arctic Seas programme and cosponsored by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization, the primary aim of the meeting was to examine past, present, and future ecosystem responses to climate variability and ocean acidification (OA) and their effect on fishing communities, the fishing industry and fisheries management in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans and the Arctic. This symposium issue contains several papers from the meeting covering topics from climate and OA, ecosystem responses to environmental change, and fisheries management including: a synthesis of the ecosystem responses to the AMO-linked cold period of the 1970s and 1980s; a novel approach to understand responses to OA in northern climes using natural carbonate chemistry gradients, such as CO2 vents, methane cold seeps, and upwelling area; the possibility that warm temperatures are allowing two generations of Calanus finmarchicus per year to be produced; a new hypothesis suggesting that in areas where sea ice disappears there could be an increase of fish species with swim bladders; results from laboratory experiments on the effects of temperature and food on Arctic and boreal fish larvae; the application of ecosystem-based management in northern regions; and a description of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration approach to marine conservation and how it affects fish populations and fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copepods form the bulk of secondary production in marine ecosystems and are a major resource for higher trophic levels. Copepods are highly sensitive to environmental changes as they are ectotherms with a short life span whose metabolism and development depend on abiotic conditions. In turn, changes in their functional structure (i.e. functional trait composition) can have impacts on ecosystems. We examined changes in the copepod functional community in the North Sea over the past five decades, using a trait-based approach. We observed a shift around 1986–1988: the copepod community was initially dominated by larger herbivores, with a long development time, diapause ability, and highest abundances in summer. This community changed abruptly after 1986–1988, to a dominance of smaller carnivore taxa, with shorter development times, less ability to enter diapause, and that display higher abundances in autumn. This rapid reorganization could be driven by higher water temperatures, lower dinoflagellate abundances, and lower nutrient concentrations. These changes could impact adjacent trophic levels, such as phytoplankton on which several species graze or fish larvae, leading to a mismatch situation with consequences for fish recruitment. Our results emphasize the impact that global and regional changes could have on coastal ecosystems through the role played by copepods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plankton community structure changes seasonally in response to the annual cycles of stratification, temperature, and primary productivity. These communities also change from year-to-year, in some cases exhibiting persistent regime shifts. How changes in physical conditions structure the plankton community and why conditions persist is a fundamental question in oceanography. Continuous plankton recorders have been used to sample the plankton community across the Gulf of Maine since 1961. Historically, this community has had a classic subarctic structure dominated by Calanus finmarchicus. However, during the 1990s, C. finmarchicus became less prominent, and a more diverse community of smaller copepods emerged. This shift was related to an influx of cold, low-salinity water. We show that a similar community shift occurred around 2012. We use high-resolution hydrographic data to link the shift to an influx of saltier water and warmer conditions. By comparing the 1990s with the recent decade, we develop a synthesis for how physical changes lead to community shifts. Our synthesis suggests that the link between the 1990s and 2010s is enhanced water column stratification. We further propose that ecological interactions link declines in C. finmarchicus with the emergence of the more diverse community, drawing parallels with classic food web ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This decade represents a critical period to profoundly rethink human–nature interactions in order to address the interwoven climate and biodiversity crises. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) demonstrate promise for increasing ecosystem resilience and reversing habitat and population declines, but outcomes vary considerably from context to context. Partially protected areas offer a compromise between ecological recovery and the social needs of local communities, but their success is contingent on an array of factors. This in-depth review summarizes 15 years of marine conservation research and impact in Lyme Bay (southwest UK), to serve as a model for the future adoption of partially protected MPAs. The findings from the UK's longest integrated socioecological monitoring MPA study are presented and supplemented by an evaluation of the whole-site management approach as a core element of Lyme Bay's achievements. The journey from research to improved monitoring and ambitious policy is illustrated within and interspersed with stories of novel discoveries, ongoing challenges, and method developments. What started as a dedicated group of community members has grown into an immense collaboration between fishers, scientists, NGOs, and regulators, and their combined efforts have sent ripple effects of positive change across the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detecting changes in the distribution and abundance of marine species that are cryptic or occurring in very low abundances is difficult, but essential for assessing their status and informing management. One way of quantifying these changes is through the collation of opportunistic records. We reconstruct the population trajectory and distribution of the common stingray Dasyatis pastinaca around Great Britain, using opportunistic records, mostly obtained by recreational anglers. We tested if D. pastinaca declined in abundance and body size in response to fishing and if their distribution has shifted northwards in response to warming seas. We obtained 518 records covering the period 1838–2020. After correcting for observation effort, D. pastinaca catches reported by anglers showed no long-term trend over 50 years, but decreased from 1970 to 1995 and an increase in abundance since 1995. While records of species occurrence were found around much of Great Britain, nearly all were from south of 54° latitude, and records have contracted southwards since 2000. No trend in maximum size through time was detected. In conclusion, we did not find support for the hypothesized declines in abundance and body size or a northward shift in distribution of D. pastinaca and instead found a southward contraction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many seabird populations are threatened by interactions with commercial fisheries, and climate change. Understanding their prey requirements and dietary flexibility in this context is important for effective conservation and management. However, changes in the methods used to assess diet, as well as the spatial and temporal coverage of monitoring schemes, may reduce our ability to detect and monitor these marine threats. To help assess conservation priorities linked to diet, we performed a systematic review of 109 albatross diet papers published between 1950 and 2016, which corresponded to 296 studies when stratified by sampling year, breeding site, and breeding species. We assessed the methods used, changes over time, and spatial and temporal sampling coverage by species and island group. Most albatross studies have focused on chick-rearing, and diet during other breeding phases is comparatively poorly known. Furthermore, chicks are more commonly sampled than adults and very rarely immature birds, all of which may differ in diet composition. There was a pronounced shift over time in the preferred method of characterising diet, from the morphological examination of prey remains to stable isotope analysis of tissue. This shift has reduced the volume of detailed taxonomic information available from morphological studies. This difference in resolution hinders the ability to detect changes in prey species, with implications for management of threatened albatrosses and for monitoring broader changes in marine ecosystems. In a knowledge gap analysis for important breeding colonies (with>5% of global population), we identified key sites where existing monitoring has provided a foundation for robust longitudinal diet studies. Maintaining and augmenting these long-term research programmes will enable analyses of the impacts of changing climate and fishing practices on seabird populations and facilitate the timely identification and implementation of management options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For decades, many Australian coastal communities have been changing, in varying degrees, from traditional "fishing towns" to "mining", "tourism", or "retirement" towns. However, environmental changes, such as climate change, have increased the vulnerability of these communities and their capacity to continue to successfully adapt is unknown. A framework for the assessment of socio-ecological vulnerability is used to provide information on the response to change in Geraldton, Western Australia. Geraldton has traditionally been a port and fishing town and has recently become a hub for the expanding mining industry. An innovative historical assessment of adaptive capacity using sustainable livelihoods analysis with indicators of social, economic, human, financial, physical, and natural capital is used to calculate socio-ecological vulnerability over time. The framework integrates adaptive capacity with environmental change, resource dependence, and the socio-economic importance of the fished species during four census years: 1921, 1954, 1981, and 2011. The earlier years are characterized by high adaptive capacity and low socio-ecological vulnerability in keeping with strong economic growth and low unemployment rates following the First and Second WorldWars. The years 1981 and 2011 showed markedly higher socio-ecological vulnerability and lower adaptive capacities. This result was due to progressively greater exposure to climate change and the high socio-economic importance of fished species, as well as relatively poor physical, social, and natural capital. With continuing environmental and economic change, the fishing industry and the broader Geraldton population is likely to become increasingly vulnerable. Proactive rather than passive adaptation mayspeed the recovery and reduce a decline in the fishing industry and local economies. The paper briefly discusses potential adaptation in Geraldton which may be useful as a guideline for other coastal communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For most of the past 100 years, research into recruitment processes—as pioneered by Johan Hjort—has been a consistent focus of research in fisheries science. This was reflected not only in the literature but in the organizational structures and research strategies of national and international fisheries research and management institutions. Over the past decade or so, we perceived that recruitment research is fading, if not into obscurity then at least into a more marginal place in fisheries and marine research. In this paper, we assess if our perception is real by quantifying trends in scientific publications and in the work activities within ICES during specific periods extending back to the 1920s. Our analysis documents a decline in research on recruitment processes. We put forward three possible hypotheses to explain this decline: 1. All the key research questions about recruitment have been answered; 2. The volume of research on recruitment processes has declined because the answers are no longer relevant; 3. Recruitment research has been co-opted by more trendy, possibly ephemeral, and research topics. There is little evidence to support the first two of these hypotheses and we consider the third to be the most plausible. Finally, we conclude that this new terminology/repackaging of recruitment research does not bring with it new and fresh thinking and, therefore, comes at a cost that should be carefully considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and Antarctic marine systems have in common high latitudes, large seasonal changes in light levels, cold air and sea temperatures, and sea ice. In other ways, however, they are strikingly different, including their: age, extent, geological structure, ice stability, and foodweb structure. Both regions contain very rapidly warming areas and climate impacts have been reported, as have dramatic future projections. However, the combined effects of a changing climate on oceanographic processes and foodweb dynamics are likely to influence their future fisheries in very different ways. Differences in the life-history strategies of the key zooplankton species (Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean and Calanus copepods in the Arctic) will likely affect future productivity of fishery species and fisheries. To explore future scenarios for each region, this paper: (i) considers differing characteristics (including geographic, physical, and biological) that define polar marine ecosystems and reviews known and projected impacts of climate change on key zooplankton species that may impact fished species; (ii) summarizes existing fishery resources; (iii) synthesizes this information to generate future scenarios for fisheries; and (iv) considers the implications for future fisheries management. Published studies suggest that if an increase in open water during summer in Arctic and Subarctic seas results in increased primary and secondary production, biomass may increase for some important commercial fish stocks and new mixes of species may become targeted. In contrast, published studies suggest that in the Southern Ocean the potential for existing species to adapt is mixed and that the potential for the invasion of large and highly productive pelagic finfish species appears low. Thus, future Southern Ocean fisheries may largely be dependent on existing species. It is clear from this review that new management approaches will be needed that account for the changing dynamics in these regions under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

For the Blue Foods economy—those sectors that gain value from the biological productivity of the oceans such as fisheries and aquaculture—climate shocks pose an existential threat. Species range shifts, harmful algal blooms, marine heatwaves, low oxygen events, coral bleaching, and hurricanes all present a serious economic risk to these industries, and yet there exist few financial tools for managing these risks. This contrasts with agriculture, where financial tools such as insurance are widely available for managing numerous weather-related shocks. Designing financial tools to aid risk management, such as insurance, for equitable resilience against marine climate shocks will give coastal communities access to the necessary means for reducing their sensitivity to climate shocks and improving their long-term adaptive capacity. We suggest that a convergence of the insurance industry and marine sectors, fostered through collaboration with governments, academics, and NGOs will help usher in new forms of insurance, such as ocean-index or parametric insurance. These new risk-management tools have the potential to help incentivize sustainable use of living marine resources, as well as strengthening the economic resilience of coastal communities to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine fisheries worldwide. Concurrently, scientific interest has grown to understand how these systems can cope and adapt, with research shifting from examining vulnerability to assessing risks to focusing on determining and operationalizing resilience. As fisheries-climate-resilience researchers and practitioners navigating a sea of frameworks, toolkits, strategies, policy goals, and management desires, we take stock to ask: what does resilience mean to us? Drawing on our experiences in the northeast United States, we discuss the challenges and ambiguity we encounter in concepts of social-ecological resilience and explore implications for research and implementation. We bring together perspectives to discuss various approaches to resilience, highlighting shared and unique challenges we face. We outline three key considerations as we move forward in resilience research and practice: (1) the need for greater transparency and reflexivity among researchers regarding how they frame and approach resilience; (2) the value of increasing coordination and communication among fisheries groups working on these topics; and (3) the use of co-developed and co-produced resilience research and strategies. We urge for greater centring of communities in these discussions and to explicitly consider how resilience interacts with equity outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Maine Department of Marine Resources (MEDMR) is a state agency tasked with developing, conserving, researching, and promoting commercial and recreational marine fisheries across Maine's vast coastline. Close collaborations with industry members in each of the 30 or more fisheries that support Maine's coastal economy are central to MEDMR's efforts to address this suite of tasks. Here we reflect on recent decades of MEDMR's work and demonstrate how MEDMR fisheries research programmes are preparing for an uncertain future through the lens of three broadly applicable climate-driven challenges: (1) a rapidly changing marine ecosystem; (2) recommendations driven by state and federal climate initiatives; and (3) the need to share institutional knowledge with a new generation of marine resource scientists. We do this by highlighting our scientific and co-management approach to coastal Maine fisheries that have prospered, declined, or followed a unique trend over the last 25+ years. We use these examples to illustrate our lessons learned when studying a diverse array of fisheries, highlight the importance of collaborations with academia and the commercial fishing industry, and share our recommendations to marine resource scientists for addressing the climate-driven challenges that motivated this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "blue economy" idea promotes the responsible and sustainable use of coastal and marine resources. The need to balance the exploitation and economic use of these resources has moved to the top of the research agenda and management priorities for small island developing states (SIDS). SIDS face unique challenges due to their geographic, economic, and environmental characteristics. While the specific challenges can vary based on the individual SIDS, some common future challenges include (i) climate change and sea-level rise resulting from the increased frequency and intensity of storms and coastal erosion; (ii) natural disasters such as hurricanes, cyclones, tsunamis, and earthquakes, resulting in extensive damage, disruption of essential services, and lead to loss of lives and livelihoods; (iii) lack of sustainable development and economic diversification leading to reliance on few key sectors, such as tourism and agriculture, which are vulnerable to market fluctuations; (iv) energy security and renewable energy transition; as there is dependency on imported fossil fuels for their energy needs, price fluctuations and supply disruptions occurs; (v) biodiversity conservation and marine resource management; they host unique ecosystems and rich biodiversity, including coral reefs, mangroves, and marine species; and (vi) access to finance and technology; there are direct opportunities, for accessing funds to support technology development under sustainable finance projects. This themed article set attracted 14 submissions, 7 of which were accepted for publication. The topics covered fisheries, climate change effects, marine litter, and development of new technologies and finance mechanisms to support the SIDS. Overall, these contributions have emphasized the remarkable role that SIDS play in the protection and management of coastal and marine ecosystems, but also highlighted several needs and key priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf of Maine hosts the southernmost remaining population of North American Atlantic salmon. Despite extensive hatchery supplementation since the late 1800s, and more recent riverine habitat restoration efforts and fishing restrictions, US-origin Atlantic salmon populations continue to decline and have remained at low abundance over recent decades. Climate change has been identified as a critical threat to the future of US Atlantic salmon. In this study, we synthesized available information on how habitats used by Atlantic salmon across all their life stages will be affected by climate change as well as the suitability of future conditions for salmon's persistence in the region. Maintaining sufficient cool water refugia during increasing summer temperatures in riverine habitats is required for sustaining salmon in the future. Changes in groundwater quantity and temperature, which will depend on future precipitation and temperature, will be critical factors for river temperatures, as will land use and land cover. While Atlantic salmon's freshwater life stages are heavily documented, the marine phase is relatively less studied. Climate models predict basin-scale changes over the next century, but impacts to salmon are difficult to predict. Furthermore, disparate drivers and differential rates of change between freshwater and marine habitats could present an obstacle to the transition between phases in the future. We have a general understanding of migration patterns and prey preferences but lack a clear picture of how salmon respond to habitat and ecosystem-level changes associated with climate change progression. More research to understand freshwater habitat changes and salmon's marine spatiotemporal distribution responses will enhance capacities to evaluate future risks and predict impacts of climate change to US-origin Atlantic salmon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-change-driven storminess and extreme events are increasingly challenging fishers in tropical island countries. Weather-based index insurance is an emerging tool that can assist fishing communities in their recovery and adaptation to such events. In these regions, coral reefs support valuable fisheries and also provide coastal protection during extreme events. Surveying 80 fishers in Grenada, this exploratory study examined fishers' perceptions of index insurance in the context of their experiences of extreme events. We also explore perceptions of reef health and its' connections to fishing outcomes and coastal protection, given the indirect role this plays in supporting fishers' resilience through associated fisheries and storm protection. Most fishers viewed extreme events as a severe risk to their livelihoods, affecting their ability to make future plans. Fishers comprehended the links between improved reef health and positive impacts on fishing (higher catches and incomes). Several challenges regarding index insurance were raised, which centred on themes of flexibility, affordability, inclusivity, and accessibility. These could pose barriers to fishers and undermine demand for or participation in such schemes. As such, research, design, and implementation of future index insurance schemes should consider issues raised by fishers to ensure that provision is equitable and improve uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of estuarine seagrass beds as nurseries for juvenile fish has become a universal paradigm, especially for estuaries that are as important as the Chesapeake Bay. Yet, scientific tests of this hypothesis were equivocal depending on species, location, and metrics. Moreover, seagrasses themselves are under threat and one-third of seagrasses have disappeared worldwide with 65% of their losses occurring in estuaries. Although there have been extensive studies of seagrasses in the Chesapeake Bay, surprisingly few studies have quantified the relationship between seagrass as nurseries for finfish in the Bay. Of the few studies that have directly evaluated the use of seagrass nurseries, most have concentrated on single species or were of short duration. Few landscape-level or long-term studies have examined this relationship in the Bay or explored the potential effect of climate change. This review paper summarizes the seagrass habitat value as nurseries and presents recent juvenile fish studies that address the dearth of research at the long term and landscape level with an emphasis on the Chesapeake Bay. An important conclusion upon the review of these studies is that predicting the effects of climate change on fishery production remains uncertain. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Hollowed, A. B., Barange, M., Beamish, R., Brander, K., Cochrane, K., Drinkwater, K., Foreman, M., Hare, J., Holt, J., Ito, S-I., Kim, S., King, J., Loeng, H., MacKenzie, B., Mueter, F., Okey, T., Peck, M. A., Radchenko, V., Rice, J., Schirripa, M., Yatsu, A., and Yamanaka, Y. 2013. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1023–1037.This paper reviews current literature on the projected effects of climate change on marine fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities throughout the northern hemisphere. The review addresses the following issues: (i) expected impacts on ecosystem productivity and habitat quantity and quality; (ii) impacts of changes in production and habitat on marine fish and shellfish species including effects on the community species composition, spatial distributions, interactions, and vital rates of fish and shellfish; (iii) impacts on fisheries and their associated communities; (iv) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty and modelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming in many regions to project these complex responses. National and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where relative impacts by region could be compared on a hemispheric or global level. Eight research foci were identified that will improve the projections of climate impacts on fish, fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Dalpadado, P., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Stige, L. C., Bogstad, B., Knutsen, T., Ottersen, G., and Ellertsen, B. 2012. Climate effects on Barents Sea ecosystem dynamics. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: .Effects of climate variability and change on sea temperature, currents, and water mass distribution are likely to affect the productivity and structure of high-latitude ecosystems. This paper focuses on the Barents Sea (BS), a productive Arcto–boreal shelf ecosystem sustaining several ecologically and economically important fish species. The water masses in the region are classified as Atlantic, Arctic, and mixed, each having a distinct ecological signature. The pronounced increase in temperature and a reduction in the area covered by Arctic water that has taken place during the past decade have affected the ecology of the region. An increase in biomass of lipid-rich euphausiids in recent years, possibly linked to the temperature increase, has apparently provided good feeding and growth conditions for several species, including capelin and young cod. The observed reduction in Arctic zooplankton may on the other hand have negative implications for polar cod and other zooplankton predators linked to the Arctic foodweb. Despite these changes, the BS at present seems to maintain relatively stable levels of boreal zooplankton biomass and production, with no significant changes in the abundances of Calanus finmarchicus or the episodic immigrant C. helgolandicus. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Olsson, J., Bergström, L., and Gårdmark, A. 2012. Abiotic drivers of coastal fish community change during four decades in the Baltic Sea – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 961–970.Evidence for long-term change of marine ecosystems is increasing worldwide. Coastal areas harbour the socio-economically and ecologically most vital aquatic ecosystems, but are under increasing anthropogenic pressure. Little is known, however, about how environmental perturbations affect the development of coastal systems. In this paper, datasets of coastal fish communities covering almost four decades (early/mid 1970s to 2008) in three different basins of the Baltic Sea were analysed. There were clear changes in species composition over time in all but one dataset and coherence among basins in the timing of change. Changes were mainly associated with variables related to climate (water temperature, salinity, and North Atlantic Oscillation index), but less so with those reflecting nutrient status (nutrient concentrations and loading). Despite the importance of local water temperature, regional climatic variables were more important for the temporal development of communities. The results indicate that Baltic coastal fish communities have undergone large structural changes governed by processes acting on both local and regional scales. The findings suggest that ecological targets should be set accounting for long-term changes in community structure and that a common management of coastal and offshore ecosystems would be beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Farley, E. V., Starovoytov, A., Naydenko, S., Heintz, R., Trudel, M., Guthrie, C., Eisner, L., Guyon, J. R. 2011. Implications of a warming eastern Bering Sea for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1138–1146.Overwinter survival of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.) is believed to be a function of size and energetic status they gain during their first summer at sea. We test this notion for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (O. nerka), utilizing data from large-scale fisheries and oceanographic surveys conducted during mid-August to September 2002–2008 and from February to March 2009. The new data presented in this paper demonstrate size-selective mortality for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon between autumn and their first winter at sea. Differences in the seasonal energetic signatures for lipid and protein suggest that these fish are not starving, but instead the larger fish caught during winter apparently are utilizing energy stores to minimize predation. Energetic status of juvenile sockeye salmon was also strongly related to marine survival indices and years with lower energetic status apparently are a function of density-dependent processes associated with high abundance of juvenile sockeye salmon. Based on new information regarding eastern Bering Sea ecosystem productivity under a climate-warming scenario, we hypothesize that sustained increases in spring and summer sea temperatures may negatively affect energetic status of juvenile sockeye salmon, potentially resulting in increased overwinter mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Cheung, W. W. L., Dunne, J., Sarmiento, J. L., and Pauly, D. 2011. Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1008–1018.Previous global analyses projected shifts in species distributions and maximum fisheries catch potential across ocean basins by 2050 under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B. However, these studies did not account for the effects of changes in ocean biogeochemistry and phytoplankton community structure that affect fish and invertebrate distribution and productivity. This paper uses a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model that incorporates these factors to project distribution and maximum catch potential of 120 species of exploited demersal fish and invertebrates in the Northeast Atlantic. Using projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (ESM2.1) under the SRES A1B, we project an average rate of distribution-centroid shift of 52 km decade−1 northwards and 5.1 m decade−1 deeper from 2005 to 2050. Ocean acidification and reduction in oxygen content reduce growth performance, increase the rate of range shift, and lower the estimated catch potentials (10-year average of 2050 relative to 2005) by 20–30% relative to simulations without considering these factors. Consideration of phytoplankton community structure may further reduce projected catch potentials by ∼10%. These results highlight the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to biogeochemical changes and the need to incorporate likely hypotheses of their biological and ecological effects in assessing climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Higgason, K. D., and Brown, M. 2009. Local solutions to manage the effects of global climate change on a marine ecosystem: a process guide for marine resource managers. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1640–1646.The marine environment plays an important role in controlling the amount of CO2 that remains within the earth’s atmosphere, but it has not received as much attention as the terrestrial environment regarding climate-change effects, mitigation programmes, and action plans. Potential physical effects of climate change within the marine environment, including ocean acidification, changes in winds that drive upwelling and ocean circulation patterns, increasing global sea surface temperatures, and sea level rise, can result in dramatic changes within marine and coastal ecosystems. Often, marine resource managers feel overwhelmed by the magnitude of this issue and are therefore uncertain how to begin to take action. It may seem that they do not have the time, funding, or staff to take on a challenge as large as climate change, and fail to act as a result. Using NOAA’s Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary as a case study, this paper outlines the need to act now and presents an easy-to-use process guide, providing managers options to incorporate effectively the influences of climate change into management strategies, as well as mitigate these influences through community outreach and a reduction in workplace emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Rijnsdorp, A. D., Peck, M. A., Engelhard, G. H., Möllmann, C., and Pinnegar, J. K. 2009. Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1570–1583.This paper develops a framework for the study of climate on fish populations based on first principles of physiology, ecology, and available observations. Environmental variables and oceanographic features that are relevant to fish and that are likely to be affected by climate change are reviewed. Working hypotheses are derived from the differences in the expected response of different species groups. A review of published data on Northeast Atlantic fish species representing different biogeographic affinities, habitats, and body size lends support to the hypothesis that global warming results in a shift in abundance and distribution (in patterns of occurrence with latitude and depth) of fish species. Pelagic species exhibit clear changes in seasonal migration patterns related to climate-induced changes in zooplankton productivity. Lusitanian species have increased in recent decades (sprat, anchovy, and horse mackerel), especially at the northern limit of their distribution areas, while Boreal species decreased at the southern limit of their distribution range (cod and plaice), but increased at the northern limit (cod). Although the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain, available evidence suggests climate-related changes in recruitment success to be the key process, stemming from either higher production or survival in the pelagic egg or larval stage, or owing to changes in the quality/quantity of nursery habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Lorenzo, M. N., Taboada, J. J., and Iglesias, I. 2009. Sensitivity of thermohaline circulation to decadal and multidecadal variability. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1439–1447.In this paper, stochastic freshwater inputs with different variabilities are introduced into an Earth Model of Intermediate Complexity to study their effect on the behaviour of the thermohaline circulation (THC). The variability in the stochastic signal was set to be either decadal or multidecadal (70 years), based on intensity modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The results demonstrate a weakening of the THC in both the decadal and the multidecadal cases. This weakening results in a reduction in air surface temperature, mainly in the North Atlantic. Moreover, the 500-mb stream function also weakens. This causes lower rainfall in Western Europe, except in the areas most influenced by the Gulf Stream. Sea surface temperature is reduced significantly in the area around Greenland, whereas sea surface salinity is reduced around Greenland and in the Gulf Stream, but increased in the Labrador Sea and in Hudson Strait. The latter effects are more marked in the case where the variability of the inputs is multidecadal. The main implication of these results is that the natural decadal or multidecadal variability in freshwater inputs could have noticeable effects on the fate of the THC, which may be superimposed on the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Coelho, C., Silva, R., Veloso-Gomes, F., and Taveira-Pinto, F. 2009. Potential effects of climate change on northwest Portuguese coastal zones. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1497–1507.Coastal erosion is a common problem in Europe; a result of the dynamic nature of its coastal zones, of anthropogenic influences, such as coastal interventions and littoral occupation, and of the effects of climate change. The increase in the occurrence of extreme events, the weakening of river-sediment supplies, and the general acceleration of sea level rise (SLR) probably tends to aggravate coastal erosion on decadal time-scales. Describing vulnerability and risk patterns for energetic environmental actions is important for coastal planning and management to rationalize the decision-making process. To minimize negative effects, the various processes causing erosion must be understood to assess the possible prediction scenarios for coastal evolution in the medium to long term. This paper describes the application of a coastal (shoreline evolution) numerical model to a stretch of the Portuguese coast to determine the effects of various scenarios of wave action and SLR that might result from climate change over the next 25 years. We conclude that the effects of SLR are less important than changes in wave action. The numerical model was also applied in a generic situation to compare shoreline evolution with and without anthropogenic intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Capelin (Mallotus villosus) is a classic “r” adapted pelagic species that inhabits the northern boreal oceans at the margins of cold Arctic waters. The species originated in the North Pacific and colonized the North Atlantic at least once during interglacial periods of the past few million years. Capelin became the main forage species for many larger predatory fish, and also for seabirds and marine mammals. The colonizing abilities of capelin have been noted in historical anecdotes, typically in concert with climate variations. In this paper, all known shifts in distribution are catalogued. Shifts have taken place at the larval and adult stages, and some result in new spawning locations, others do not. Displacement distance relates to temperature change: log10(distancekm)=0.28×temperature change+2.16 (p<0.05, r2 =0.91). The persistence of the shifts relates to the displacement distance: log10(persistencey)=2.62×log10(distancekm)−6.56 (p<0.05, r2 =0.83). The quick and consistent response of capelin to temperature change, its importance to the North Atlantic foodweb, and established monitoring methods suggest this species as a sea “canary” for northern boreal marine ecosystem responses to climate variability and change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The efficacy of marine protected areas (MPAs) may be reduced when climate change disrupts the ecosystems and human communities around which they are designed. The effects of ocean warming on MPA functioning have received attention but less is known about how multiple climatic stressors may influence MPAs efficacy. Using a novel dataset incorporating 8.8 million oceanographic observations, we assess exposure to potentially stressful temperatures, dissolved oxygen concentrations, and pH levels across the California MPA network. This dataset covers more than two-thirds of California's 124 MPAs and multiple biogeographic domains. However, spatial-temporal and methodological patchiness constrains the extent to which systematic evaluation of exposure is possible across the network. Across a set of nine well-monitored MPAs, the most frequently observed combination of stressful conditions was hypoxic conditions (<140 umol/kg) co-occurring with low pH (<7.75). Conversely, MPAs exposed most frequently to anomalously warm conditions were less likely to experience hypoxia and low pH, although exposure to hypoxia varied throughout the 2014–2016 marine heatwaves. Finally, we found that the spatial patterns of exposure to hypoxia and low pH across the MPA network remained stable across years. This multiple stressor analysis both confirms and challenges prior hypotheses regarding MPA efficacy under global environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bering Sea is a productive large marine ecosystem that supports numerous commercial fisheries, while climate change is introducing rapid warming and freshening, especially in coastal water. The success of early life stages of marine fish can impact adult abundance levels; little is known about how behavioural or physiological plasticity in relation to environmental changes at one stage (e.g. spawning) may affect survival during subsequent stages (e.g. larvae), nor whether trade-offs exist that affect how a species demonstrates such plasticity. We utilized a statistical approach to examine phenological and geographical flexibility in spawning behaviour for four species of groundfish. In situ sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) associations were also estimated by statistical models for six species of groundfish larvae. All species exhibited greater spawning geography flexibility than phenological flexibility during the egg stage. All larval stages exhibited specific temperature and salinity associations across unique combinations of SST and SSS. These species-specific patterns, in the context of potential climate change impacts, suggest that flexibility in spawning behaviour may not adequately compensate for the presence of unfavourable habitats at the larval stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and size-selective overexploitation can alter fish size and growth, yet our understanding of how and to what extent is limited due to a lack of long-term biological data from wild populations. This precludes our ability to effectively forecast population dynamics and support sustainable fisheries management. Using modern, archived, and archaeological vertebrae dimensions and growth rings of one of the most intensely exploited populations, the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus , BFT), we estimated catch-at-size and early-life growth patterns from the 3rd century bce to the 21st century ce to understand responses to changes in its environment. We provide novel evidence that BFT juvenile growth increased between the 16th–18th, 20th, and 21st centuries, and is correlated with a warming climate and likely a decrease in stock biomass. We found it equally plausible that fisheries-induced evolution has acted to increase juvenile BFT growth, driving earlier maturation as a result of size-selective exploitation. Coincidently, we found limited evidence to suggest a long history of large ( >200 cm FL) BFT capture. Instead, we found that the catch-at-size of archaeological BFT was relatively small in comparison with more intensive, 20th and 21st century tuna trap fisheries which operated further from shore. This complex issue would benefit from studies using fine-scale biochronological analyses of otoliths and adaptation genomics, throughout the last century especially, to determine evolutionary responses to exploitation, and further disentangle the influence of temperature and biomass on fish growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the impact of marine ecosystem warming on the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton production is challenging. For example, warming can advance the progression of stratification thereby changing the availability of nutrients to surface phytoplankton, or influence the surface mixed layer depth, thus affecting light availability. Here, we use a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll remote sensing products to characterize the response of the phytoplankton community to increased temperature in the Northeast US Shelf Ecosystem. The rate of change in SST was higher in the summer than in winter in all ecoregions resulting in little change in the timing and magnitude of the spring thermal transition compared to a significant change in the autumn transition. Along with little phenological shift in spring thermal conditions, there was also no evidence of a change in spring bloom timing and duration. However, we observed a change in autumn bloom timing in the Georges Bank ecoregion, where bloom initiation has shifted from late September to late October between 1998 and 2020—on average 33 d later. Bloom duration in this ecoregion also shortened from ∼7.5 to 5 weeks. The shortened autumn bloom may be caused by later overturn in stratification known to initiate autumn blooms in the region, whereas the timing of light limitation at the end of the bloom remains unchanged.  These changes in bloom timing and duration appear to be related to the change in autumn thermal conditions and the significant shift in autumn thermal transition. These results suggest that the spring bloom phenology in this temperate continental shelf ecosystem may be more resilient to thermal climate change effects than blooms occurring in other times of the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Ocean presents many opportunities, with the blue economy projected to at least double in the next two decades. However, capitalizing on these opportunities presents significant challenges and a multi-sectoral, integrated approach to managing marine socio-ecological systems will be required to achieve the full benefits projected for the blue economy. Integrated ecosystem assessments have been identified as the best means of delivering the information upon which marine resource management decisions can be made. By their nature, these assessments are inter-disciplinary, but to date have mostly focused on the natural sciences. Inclusion of human dimensions into integrated ecosystem assessments has been lagging, but is fundamental. Here we report on a Symposium, and the articles emmanating from it that are included in this Theme Set, that address how to more effectively include human dimensions into integrated ecosystem assessments. We provide an introduction to each of the main symposium topics (governance, scenarios, indicators, participatory processes, and case studies), highlight the works that emerged from the symposium, and identify key areas in which more work is required. There is still a long way to go before we see end-to-end integrated ecosystem assessments inclusive of all the major current and potential ocean use sectors that also encompass multiple aspects of human dimensions. Nonetheless, it is also clear that progress is being made and we are developing tools and approaches, including the human dimension, that can inform management and position us to take advantage of the multi-sectoral opportunities of sustainable blue growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many long-term studies have reported changes in seabird abundance and distribution in response to climate change and various anthropogenic activities. However, a greater understanding of how species are responding to change over large spatial and temporal scales are required—particularly at high latitudes such as the Southern Ocean. We examined black-browed Thalassarche melanophris (BBAL) and light-mantled sooty Phoebetria palpebrata albatross (LMSA) observations spanning over 50 years. Both species have a wide-ranging distribution in a rapidly changing Southern Ocean. We used generalized additive models (GAMs) to investigate environmental drivers of their abundance and occurrence. Our results show that climate indices, sea surface temperature and sea surface height are the main drivers influencing the distribution and abundance of both species. The abundance of BBAL southeast of Australia was observed to be decreased substantially whereas no significant change was observed in the abundance of LMSA. Both species demonstrated contrasting distributions along their latitudinal gradient with BBAL showing early stages of a southward range shift. Our analyses suggest that responses to climate change are species-specific. These rare, long-term data have provided an understanding of species' responses to past changes in the marine environment and can provide critical information for future conservation and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Sea is among the most vulnerable semi-enclosed seas to climate change. Multiple oceanic changes occur besides warming that can generate numerous ecological, social, and economic risks, challenging fisheries management at various spatial scales—from local to international. In this study, we applied a semi-quantitative climate risk assessment (CRA) to the Mediterranean small pelagic and demersal fisheries in relation to a diversity of climate-related drivers and impacts. We assessed the risks of climate change effects on demersal and small pelagic fisheries resources, fishing operations, livelihoods, and wider social and economic implications in seven sub-regions of the Mediterranean Sea. Ocean warming, an increase in extreme weather events, and changes in vertical stratification resulted in the most important climate drivers. Overall, climate drivers present higher risks to fishing resources and livelihoods than to fishing operations and wider social and economic impacts. The study puts into evidence geographic differences in terms of the drivers and impacts, with the south-eastern Mediterranean being the sub-region with higher risk levels for both fisheries, while the north-central Mediterranean also showed important risk levels for the demersal fisheries. The study furthermore discusses the most plausible adaptive measures in management, policy, research, and livelihoods to be potentially applied to address high priority risks, as well as various implementation concerns and technical effectiveness issues. Enhancing adaptive fisheries management needs to be the primary strategy for this region to reverse the high number of overfished stocks and build resilience to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of recruitment and its variability in marine fish populations contributes to sustainable fisheries but a full understanding remains elusive. An earlier study showed that haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) stocks exhibited consistently higher variability and lower reproductive rates compared to cod (Gadus morhua) stocks in the geographic regions where they co-occurred. Thus, cod may have a higher resilience to overexploitation, whereas haddock stocks may be more likely to be rescued by chance strong recruitments events. Since that initial study, the ecosystems and stocks have experienced large structural and functional changes, as well as changes in management practice and ocean warming. Here, we updated the previous earlier analysis with new data and found that despite large changes in the ecosystems explored, the patterns of recruitment variability have persisted. Recruitment variability remains higher in haddock than in cod, and the maximum annual reproduction rate at low spawning stock biomass (SSB) remains higher in cod than in haddock, although the latter difference is now less pronounced. Despite the economic and ecological importance of cod and haddock, and their long history of scientific scrutiny, the persistent difference in their reproductive biology remains unexplained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefits of multinational agreements that address global problems, such as climate change, must not be diminished by uncritical acceptance that the action that is necessary to address all widespread problems, such as overfishing, is common, globally. Evidence-based identification of the nature and cause of threats to marine ecosystems is the essential first step in effective ocean management. Action that targets each threat across as much as possible of the area in which it arises, which may be entirely different from where it manifests, is the second. These concepts are not new, however, The High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy (HLOP) has given them increased impetus by mandating that its signatories, in addressing priority marine issues, which may vary from country to country and collectively be of global importance, must begin with addressing threats in 100% of national waters. The successful management of the world's biggest tuna resources across 50 million km2 of the Central and Western Pacific is put forward as an example of how an initial commitment to a single shared fisheries resource assessment program can provide the foundation for consensus amongst more than 40 countries on the sharing of the benefits of managed access to widespread oceanic resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environmental conditions that marine populations experience are being altered because of climate change. In particular, changes in temperature and increased variability can cause shifts in spatial distribution, leading to changes in local physiological rates and recruitment success. Yet, management of fish stocks rarely accounts for variable spatial dynamics or changes in movement rates when estimating management quantities such as stock abundance or maximum sustainable yield. To address this concern, a management strategy evaluation (MSE) was developed to evaluate the robustness of the international management system for Pacific hake, an economically important migratory stock, by incorporating spatio-temporal population dynamics. Alternative hypotheses about climate-induced changes in age-specific movement rates, in combination with three different harvest control rules (HCR), were evaluated using a set of simulations that coupled single-area estimation models with alternative operating models representing spatial stock complexity. Movement rates intensified by climate change caused a median decline in catches, increased annual catch variability, and lower average spawning biomass. Impacts varied by area and HCR, underscoring the importance of spatial management. Incorporating spatial dynamics and climate change effects into management procedures for fish stocks with spatial complexity is warranted to mitigate risk and uncertainty for exploited marine populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrative and spatialized tools for studying the effects of a wide variety of ecosystem drivers are needed to implement ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning. We developed a tool for analyzing the direct and indirect effects of anthropic activities on the structure and functioning of coastal and marine ecosystems. Using innovative modelling techniques, we ran a spatially explicit model to carry out an ecological network analysis (ENA) of the effects of climate change (CC), of an offshore wind farm (OWF) and of multiple fishing scenarios on the Bay of Seine (eastern part of the English Channel) ecosystem. ENA indices described the effects of those different drivers in a holistic and spatial way. The spatial analysis of ecosystem properties revealed local and global patterns of modifications attributed to CC, while the OWF resulted in localized changes in the ecosystem. This ability of ENA indicators to detect human-induced changes in ecosystem functioning at various spatial scales allows for a more integrative view of the effects of human activities on ecosystems. ENA indices could be used to link both local and global ecosystem changes, for a more cross-scale approach to ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]