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Connectivity of pelagic, early life stages via transport by ocean currents may affect survival chances of offspring, recruitment success, and mixing of stocks across management units. Based on drift model studies, transport patterns of particles representing exogenously feeding cod larvae in the transition area between North Sea and Baltic were investigated to (i) determine long-term trends and variability in advective transport of larvae from spawning grounds to juvenile nursery areas, (ii) estimate the degree of exchange between different management areas, and (iii) compare the results with spatial distributions of juvenile cod. The transport of particles showed considerable intra- and interannual variability, but also some general patterns of retention within and dispersion to different management areas. Good spatial overlap of particle end positions, representing potential juvenile settlement areas, with observed distributions of juveniles in bottom trawl surveys suggests that the drift simulations provide reasonable estimates of early life stage connectivity between cod populations in the investigated areas. High exchange rates of particles between management areas of up to ca. 70% suggest that cod populations in the investigated areas are demographically correlated. Results are discussed in relation to their relevance for stock structure, fish stock assessment, and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual growth zones in cod otoliths from the eastern Baltic stock are less discrete than in other cod stocks leading to biased age reading, which recently led to a failure of age-based assessment in the eastern Baltic cod stock. In this study, we explored the applicability of minor and trace element patterns in cod otoliths for age determination. By first identifying elements of interest in a stock without ageing problems, western Baltic cod, we then tested their applicability on another stock without ageing problems, North Sea cod, and finally applied this knowledge to estimate age of eastern Baltic cod. In western Baltic cod, matching patterns with respect to occurrence of minima and maxima in both otolith opacity and element concentrations were found for Cu, Zn, and Rb, and inverse patterns with Mg and Mn. No match was found for Pb, Ba, and Sr. In the test stock, the North Sea cod, the same patterns in Cu, Zn, Rb, Mg, and Mn signals occurred. All eastern Baltic cod with low visual contrast between growth zones exhibited clearly defined synchronous cycles in Cu, Zn, Rb and Pb. Using a combined finite differencing method and structural break models approach, the statistical significance of the local profile minima were identified, based on which their age could be estimated. Despite extensive environmental differences between the three areas examined, the element concentrations of Cu, Zn, and Rb were strongly correlated in all individuals with similar correlations in all three areas, suggesting that the incorporation mechanisms are the same for these elements and independent of environmental concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Baltic Sea, two genetically distinct cod populations occur, the eastern and the western Baltic cod. Since 2006, cod abundance has increased substantially in the Arkona Basin (SD 24), the potential mixing area between the two stocks management areas, presumably due to spill-over from the eastern stock. In this study, the spatio-temporal dynamics of stock mixing were analysed using shape analysis of archived otoliths. Further, the impact of eastern cod immigration on recruitment in the western Baltic Sea was investigated using hydrographic drift modelling. The percentage of eastern Baltic cod in the Arkona Basin increased from ca. 30% before 2005 to .80% in recent years. Geographic patterns in stock mixing with a pronounced east-west trend suggest that immigration occurs north of Bornholm, but propagates throughout the Arkona Basin. The immigration cannot be attributed to spawning migration, as no seasonal trend in stock mixing was observed. Based on environmental threshold levels for egg survival and time-series of hydrography data, the habitat suitable for successful spawning of eastern cod was estimated to range between 20 and 50% of the maximum possible habitat size, limited by primarily low salinity. Best conditions occurred irregularly in May-end June, interspersed with years where successful spawning was virtually impossible. Using a coupled hydrodynamic modelling and particle-tracking approach, the drift and survival of drifters representing eastern cod eggs was estimated. On average, 19%of the drifters in the Arkona Basin survive to the end of the yolk-sac stage, with mortality primarily after bottom contact due to low salinity. The general drift direction of the surviving larvae was towards the east. Therefore, it is the immigration of eastern cod, rather than larval transport, that contributes to cod recruitment in the western Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hinrichsen, H-H., Hüssy, K., and Huwer, B. 2012. Spatio-temporal variability in western Baltic cod early life stage survival mediated by egg buoyancy, hydrography and hydrodynamics. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1744–1752.To disentangle the effects of different drivers on recruitment variability of marine fish, a spatially and temporally explicit understanding of both the spawning stock size and the early life stage dynamics is required. The objectives of this study are to assess the transport of western Baltic cod early life stages as well as the variability in environmentally-mediated survival along drift routes in relation to both spatial (within and between different spawning areas) and temporal (interannual and seasonal) dynamics. A spatially and temporally highly-resolved biophysical model of the Baltic Sea was used to describe mortalities and survival success of eggs and yolk-sac larvae—represented by individual, virtual drifters—as predicted proportions of drifters that either died due to bottom contact or lethal temperatures, or that survived up to the end of the yolk-sac larval stage. The environmental conditions allowing survival of cod and yolk-sac larvae indicate that favourable conditions predominately occurred during the late spawning season, while minimum survival rates could be expected from January to March. The spatial analysis of different spawning areas revealed highest survival chances in the Kattegat, intermediate survival in the Great Belt, and only low survival in the Sound, Kiel Bay and Mecklenburg Bay. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Hüssy, K., Hinrichsen, H.-H., and Huwer, B. 2012. Hydrographic influence on the spawning habitat suitability of western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1736–1743.Recruitment variability of marine fish is influenced by the reproductive potential of the stock (i.e. stock characteristics and abundance) and the survival of early life stages, mediated by environmental conditions of both a physical (water temperature, salinity and oxygen conditions, ocean currents) and a biological nature (i.e. food, predators). The objective of this study is to assess the importance of variability in environmental conditions within different western Baltic cod spawning grounds for egg survival. Habitat identification was based on environmental threshold levels for egg survival and development and ambient hydrographical conditions at different times during the spawning season. The long-term resolution of environmental conditions allowing survival of western Baltic cod eggs indicates that favourable conditions predominantly occurred during the late spawning season in April/May, while minimum survival rates could be expected from January to March. Unsuitable time periods and habitats exhibiting the highest mortality rates are exclusively characterized by ambient water temperatures below the critical survival threshold. Despite the strong influence of water temperature on habitat suitability, the impact of habitat suitability on recruitment was not clearly defined, suggesting that other mechanisms regulate year class strength. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Temporal mismatch between the occurrence of larvae and their prey potentially affects the spatial overlap and thus the contact rates between predator and prey. This might have important consequences for growth and survival. We performed a case study investigating the influence of circulation patterns on the overlap of Baltic cod larvae with their prey. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to analyse spatio-temporally resolved drift patterns of larval Baltic cod. A coefficient of overlap between modelled larval and idealized prey distributions indicated the probability of predator–prey overlap, dependent on the hatching time of cod larvae. By performing model runs for the years 1979–1998 investigated the intra- and interannual variability of potential spatial overlap between predator and prey. Assuming uniform prey distributions, we generally found the overlap to have decreased since the mid-1980s, but with the highest variability during the 1990s. Seasonally, predator–prey overlap on the Baltic cod spawning grounds was highest in summer and lowest at the end of the cod spawning season. Horizontally variable prey distributions generally resulted in decreased overlap coefficients. Finally, we related variations in overlap patterns to the variability of Baltic cod recruitment success. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Retention or dispersion of larvae from the spawning grounds has been identified as one of the key processes influencing recruitment success in fish stocks. To examine the potential effects of transport on recruitment, numerical simulations were performed utilizing a three-dimensional physical oceanographic model of the Baltic Sea. Cod larvae were represented as Lagrangian drifters released in the deepwater region of the Bornholm Basin, the main spawning ground for Baltic cod. Simulations were performed for the major spawning seasons of 1993 and 1994, when annual and interannual variability of meteorological forcing was large. The principal goals of the modelling exercise were first to identify the physical processes influencing the demersal distribution of the early life stages and second to describe the transport of the pelagic stages in response to variations in windstress, thereby identifying the meteorological and hydrodynamic mechanisms influencing retention and/or dispersal. The results suggest that periods of low wind, especially from northern and eastern directions, retain early life stages of cod within the deepwater region of the Bornholm Basin. Periods of higher windstress and duration from the west and south resulted in a rapid transport of larvae into shallow coastal regions. Based on the results obtained from these drift experiments and a wind data time series from the meteorological station Christiansœ, a transport index has been developed, variations in annual retention/dispersal have been identified, and comparisons with variations in recruitment success are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]