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Power system inertia is declining and is increasingly variable and uncertain in regions where the penetration of non-synchronous generation and interconnectors is growing. This presents a challenge to power system operators who must take appropriate actions to ensure the stability and security of power systems relying on short-term forecasts of the system’s inertial response. Existing models to forecast inertia fail to quantify uncertainty, which may prevent their utilization given the risk aversion of the system operators when handling stability issues. This paper is the first to develop a model to produce calibrated, data-driven probabilistic forecasts of the inertia contribution of transmission-connected synchronous generators. The model provides a necessary tool for system operators to quantify forecast uncertainty, allowing them to manage the risk of frequency instability cost-effectively. The paper demonstrates that the assumption of a Gaussian distribution of uncertainty applied in existing models is not acceptable to accurately forecast the inertial response and provides a satisfactory forecast model by combining non-parametric density forecasting with parametric tail distributions. Moreover, the paper shows that satisfactory predictive performance can only be achieved by adopting a rolling horizon forecast approach to deal with the rapidly changing characteristics of the inertial response in power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with a fuzzy analysis of power-flow (PF) involving uncertainties of load demands and network parameters. The crux of this paper is to propose an advanced fuzzy arithmetic. Fuzzy transformation method merges with backward–forward sweep in order to evaluate the contribution and propagation of uncertainty in IEEE 33-bus and 69-bus distribution systems. Results are validated by true intervals and random ranges. To determine true intervals, Global Optimization Problems (GOPs) are defined and solved through derivative-based and free techniques. To estimate random ranges, Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCSs) are employed. Our findings confirm that the sharpness of fuzzy intervals, tractability of computations, and applicability of possibility distributions. Following scenario-based evaluations, this paper discusses new implications of power losses, voltage profiles, optimal re-configuration, feeder extension, and reactive power compensation so that results would be beneficial to system planners and operators. Altogether, this paper provides a blueprint for a new way to handle uncertainties in a wide variety of power system problems without global optimization, linearization, and randomized simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transient stability of a power system can be significantly affected by wind power generators due to their stochastic power output and complex dynamic characteristics. This paper proposes a robust optimization approach for coordinating generation dispatch and emergency load shedding against transient instability under uncertain wind power output. The problem is modelled as a two-stage robust optimization (TSRO) model considering transient stability constraints, where the first-stage is to optimize the generation dispatch (preventive control) before a contingency and the second-stage decision is the emergency load shedding (emergency control) after the contingency occurrence under the worst case of wind power variation. To solve this TSRO problem, this paper also proposes a solution algorithm which integrates transient stability assessment and transient stability constraint construction in a column and constraint generation framework. The proposed method is validated on the New-England 39-bus system and the Nordic32 system, which shows high computational efficiency and stability robustness against uncertain wind power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microgrid's voltage regulation is of particular importance during both grid-connected and islanded modes of operation. Especially, during the islanded mode, when the support from the upstream grid is lost, stable voltage regulation is vital for the reliable operation of critical loads. This paper proposes a robust and data-driven control approach for secondary voltage control of AC microgrids in the presence of uncertainties. To this end, unfalsified adaptive control (UAC) is utilized to select the best stabilizing controller from a set of pre-designed controllers with the minimum knowledge required from the microgrid. Two microgrid test systems are simulated in MATLAB to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method under different scenarios like load change and communication link failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme events can cause severe power system damage. Resilience-driven operation of networked microgrids (MGs) has been heavily studied in literature. There is, though, little research considering the influence of resilience on decision making for planning. In this paper, a three-level model is suggested to solve the optimal sizing problem of networked MGs considering both resilience and cost. In the first level, a meta-heuristic technique based on an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) is utilized to tackle the normal sizing problem, while a time-coupled AC OPF is utilized to capture stability properties for accurate decision-making. The second and third levels are combined as a defender-attacker-defender model. In the former, the suggested AGA is utilized to generate attacking plans capturing load profile uncertainty and contingencies for load shedding maximization, while a multi-objective optimization problem is suggested for the latter to obtain a trade-off between cost and resilience. Simulations considering meshed networks and load distinction into critical and non-critical are developed to demonstrate algorithm effectiveness on capturing resilience at the planning stage and optimally sizing multiple parameters. The results indicate that higher resilience levels lead to higher investment cost, while sizing networked MGs leads to decreased investment in comparison with standalone MGs sizing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volt-VAR optimization (VVO) has been investigated extensively in power systems. However, under the era of integrated energy systems (IES), the growing interdependencies between different energy systems complicate traditional VVO. This is further hardened by incurred gas quality problems due to the hydrogen injection in IES, produced by widely applied power-to-gas (P2G) facilitates that couple between power and gas systems. This paper develops a two-stage volt-VAR-pressure optimization (VVPO) model for PV-penetrated IES to manage the variation of system voltages while managing gas quality indices. In addition to the traditional voltage regulating devices, P2G facilities, which can mitigate fluctuating PV output via converting the surplus generation into hydrogen, are also used for voltage management. A two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) based on moment information is utilized to model PV uncertainty. A semidefinite programming model is formulated and finally solved by the constraint generation algorithm. A 33-bus-20-node IES is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed VVPO on voltage management, ensured gas quality with high economic efficiency. The proposed VVPO is applicable to injecting other green gases into gas systems while ensuring power quality and enable system operators to provide low-cost but high-quality multi-energy to customers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates systemwide short-term voltage stability concerns of power systems due to the multiple parametric uncertainties in the dynamic load model. The impact of regional load model uncertainty can be widespread and may mislead the whole system analysis and subsequent measures, if not properly addressed. This research discloses that the systemwide impact is related to the voltage weak areas through voltage stability modal analysis, and suggests that the impact of uncertain parameters needs to be assessed from a systems perspective, which has rarely been done in the existing practices. We thus present a three-step methodology for evaluating the systemwide uncertainty impacts: Firstly, it screens possible trajectories of all buses. The second step verifies whether the screened trajectories comply with the defined criteria, and determines the necessity of the final step. The final detailed analysis is conducted for those selected scenarios. Comprehensive studies for both the IEEE test and real Korea power systems consistently confirm the observations and demonstrate the efficacy and validity of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the transmission network expansion planning problem under uncertain demand and generation capacity. A two-stage adaptive robust optimization framework is adopted whereby the worst-case operating cost is accounted for under a given user-defined uncertainty set. This paper differs from previously reported robust solutions in two respects. First, the typically disregarded correlation of uncertainty sources is explicitly considered through an ellipsoidal uncertainty set relying on their variance-covariance matrix. In addition, we describe the analogy between the corresponding second-stage problem and a certain class of mathematical programs arising in structural reliability. This analogy gives rise to a relevant probabilistic interpretation of the second stage, thereby revealing an undisclosed feature of the worst-case setting characterizing robust optimization with ellipsoidal uncertainty sets. More importantly, a novel nested decomposition approach based on results from structural reliability is devised to solve the proposed robust counterpart, which is cast as an instance of mixed-integer trilevel programming. Numerical results from several case studies demonstrate that the effect of correlated uncertainty can be captured by the proposed robust approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A suitable probabilistic scenario set of load demand and natural characteristics of renewable energy is becoming a crucial issue in power system planning studies. Properly addressing the impact of potentially thousands of residential PV plants on the resilience and reliability needs of substations necessitates the representation of inherent relations between photovoltaics and the load throughout the long-term planning period. The optimal planning of substation expansions is achievable through proper modeling of input parameters which describes the characteristics of the service areas. In this paper, the co-existence of PV plants and the load in a service area under three different states such as daytime with clear-sky and no-fault, daytime with abnormal events, and nighttime are incorporated into the stochastic dynamic optimization problem by using scenario-based approach. The scenario tree of the problem is branched from three different bases simultaneously instead of only one as in conventional approach. This paper also combines the risk-constrained stochastic dynamic SEP problem and Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework under one roof. The comparison between integrating inherent characteristics of PV plants with and without considering abnormal events into the optimization is performed to show the impact of suitable probabilistic model on dynamic nature of investment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the statistical uncertainty of loads and power sources found in smart grids, effective computational tools for probabilistic load flow analysis and planning are now becoming indispensable. In this paper, we describe a unified simulation framework that allows quantifying the probability distributions of a set of observation variables as well as evaluating their sensitivity to potential variations in the power demands. The proposed probabilistic technique relies on the generalized polynomial Chaos algorithm and on a regionwise aggregation/description of the time-varying load profiles. It is shown how detailed statistical distributions of some important figures of merit, which includes voltage unbalance factor in distribution networks, can be calculated with a two orders of magnitude acceleration compared to standard Monte Carlo analysis. In addition, it is highlighted how the associated sensitivity analysis is of guidance for the optimal allocation and planning of new loads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the share of renewables in the grid increases, the operation of power systems becomes more challenging. The present paper proposes a method to formulate and solve chance-constrained optimal power flow while explicitly considering the full nonlinear ac power flow equations and stochastic uncertainties. We use polynomial chaos expansion to model the effects of arbitrary uncertainties of finite variance, which enables to predict and optimize the system state for a range of operating conditions. We apply chance constraints to limit the probability of violations of inequality constraints. Our method incorporates a more detailed and a more flexible description of both the controllable variables and the resulting system state than previous methods. Two case studies highlight the efficacy of the method, with a focus on satisfaction of the ac power flow equations and on the accurate computation of moments of all random variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing penetration of renewable energy, such as wind power, has brought great challenges to the power system operation due to its uncertainty. Flexibility, which measures the ability of power system to deal with the uncertainties, is critical for power system to adapt to the new era of renewable energy. The rising electrical demand of the water distribution system (WDS) creates opportunities for power system to leverage the flexibility provided by WDS. This paper investigates the water-energy relationship between these two systems and makes full use of the water pumps and tanks in the WDS to enhance the power system flexibility. Current WDS designs did not consider well the role WDS plays in the power system. This hinders the WDS from being fully used by power system to provide flexibility. An optimization model is proposed to determine the optimal tank size of WDS, which may provide the maximum available flexibility of power system. The effect of tank size on water quality is also investigated to ensure that the supplied water quality is not compromised. Moreover, a Benders-based heuristic algorithm is proposed to find the optimization solution more efficiently and to protect the data of each energy system. Results of case study highlight the merit of the proposed optimization design and the advantage of using WDS to provide flexibility for power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a distributionally robust network-constrained unit commitment (DR-NCUC) model considering AC network modeling and uncertainties of demands and renewable productions. The proposed model characterizes uncertain parameters using a data-driven ambiguity set constructed by training samples. The non-convex AC power flow equations are approximated by convex quadratic and McCormick relaxations. Since the proposed min-max-min DR-NCUC problem cannot be solved directly by available solvers, a new decomposition algorithm with proof of convergence is reported in this paper. The master problem of this algorithm is solved using both primal and dual cuts, while the max-min sub-problem is solved using the primal-dual hybrid gradient method, obviating the need for using duality theory. Also, an active set strategy is proposed to enhance the tractability of the decomposition algorithm by ignoring the subset of inactive constraints. The proposed model is applied to a 6-bus test system and the IEEE 118-bus test system under different conditions. These case studies illustrate the performance of the proposed DR-NCUC model to characterize uncertainties and the superiority of the proposed decomposition algorithm over other decomposition approaches using either primal or dual cuts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pricing multi-interval economic dispatch of electric power under operational uncertainty is considered in this two-part paper. Part I investigates dispatch-following incentives of profit-maximizing generators and shows that, under mild conditions, no uniform-pricing scheme for the rolling-window economic dispatch provides dispatch-following incentives that avoid discriminative out-of-the-market uplifts. A nonuniform pricing mechanism, referred to as the temporal locational marginal pricing (TLMP), is proposed. As an extension of the standard locational marginal pricing (LMP), TLMP takes into account both generation and ramping-induced opportunity costs. It eliminates the need for the out-of-the-market uplifts and guarantees full dispatch-following incentives regardless of the accuracy of the demand forecasts used in the dispatch. It is also shown that, under TLMP, a price-taking market participant has incentives to bid truthfully with its marginal cost of generation. Part II of the paper extends the theoretical results developed in Part I to more general network settings. It investigates a broader set of performance measures, including the incentives of the truthful revelation of ramping limits, revenue adequacy of the operator, consumer payments, generator profits, and price volatility under the rolling-window dispatch model with demand forecast errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new non-deterministic approach for multiyear distribution network reinforcement planning (DNRP) considering the uncertainty sources pertaining to loads, electricity prices, investment costs, and operation costs. Accordingly, the underlying idea of the information-gap decision theory (IGDT) is used to obtain a robust solution protected against different realizations of each uncertain variable lying in its robust region. The proposed model is capable of adjusting the robustness of the optimal solution in terms of a specific parameter designated as the budget of uncertainty. As the uncertain loads, investment and operation costs competitively tend to maximize their robust regions for a particular value of the budget of uncertainty, the normalized normal constraint (NNC) method as a proficient multi-objective optimization method is exploited in this paper to solve the proposed multiobjective IGDT-based DNRP (IGDT-DNRP) model. Mainly, the NNC method presents a set of Pareto optimal solutions rather than a single optimal solution. Accordingly, a posteriori out-of-sample analysis is introduced in this paper to find the best solution among the set of Pareto optimal solutions. The proposed IGDT-DNRP model is implemented on the IEEE 33-bus distribution network under different circumstances. Simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed nondeterministic approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A semi-analytical formulation is presented in this paper for the probability computation of branch current in multiphase systems. The developed formula is derived based on the linear power flow model in rectangular coordinates. The system uncertainty injections can be renewable energy resources or loads and are modeled using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The developed formula can be used to compute the line current violation probability as well as integrate into optimal power flow problem as chance-constraint relaxation. The proposed formula is first compared with the Matlab embedded numerical integration function to show its performance. Besides, the semi-analytical formula is validated and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method using the IEEE 123-bus system, EPRI Ckt5, and Ckt7 systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Service restoration is one of the critical functions to enable the future self-healing distribution system. To restore the distribution system in a timely and reliable manner, the realistic system operating conditions need to be accurately characterized. In this paper, two main factors that have great impacts on distribution system restoration (DSR) in practice are investigated. First, cold load pickup (CLPU), generally caused by thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), is a common phenomenon after an outage and shaped by the outage duration. However, the time-dependent behaviors of CLPU are rarely considered in literature. In this paper, the operating state evolution of TCLs after an outage is analyzed to characterize time-dependent CLPU. And the time-dependent CLPU is analytically embedded in DSR to accurately represent the actual behaviors of the restored loads. Second, it is difficult to predict loads that fluctuate during DSR due to the lack of real-time measurement data. Accordingly, a robust DSR based on the information gap decision theory (IGDT) is proposed to address this challenge, fully considering the uncertainty of CLPU. The proposed models are tested in IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders. Simulation results demonstrate that the time-dependent CLPU model and the uncertainty modeling of CLPU can accurately capture the actual behaviors of loads with TCLs after an outage, which greatly improves DSR decisions in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comprehensive scheduling framework for residential demand response (DR) programs considering both the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. In the first stage, residential customers determine the operating status of their responsive devices such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and electric water heaters (EWHs), while the distribution system operator (DSO) computes the amount of electricity to be purchased in the day-ahead electricity market. In the second stage, the DSO purchases insufficient (or sells surplus) electricity in the real-time electricity market to maintain the supply-demand balance. Due to its computational complexity and data privacy issues, the proposed model cannot be directly solved in a centralized manner, especially with a large number of uncertain scenarios. Therefore, this paper proposes a combination of stochastic programming (SP) and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm, called SP-ADMM, to decompose the original model and then solve each sub-problem in a distributed manner while considering multiple uncertain scenarios. The simulation study is performed on the IEEE 33-bus system including 121 residential houses. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for large-scale residential DR applications under weather and consumer uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wide implementation of information and communication technologies (ICT) cause power system operations exposed to cyber-attacks. Meanwhile, the tendency of integrated multi energy vectors has worsened this issue with multiple energy coupled. This paper proposes a two-stage risk-averse mitigation strategy for water-energy systems (WESs), incorporating power, natural gas and water systems against false data injection attacks (FDIA) under water-energy nexus. The FDIA on individual sub-systems is modelled through hampering false data integrity to the systems. An innovative two-stage risk-averse distributionally robust optimization (RA-DRO) is proposed to mitigate uneconomic operation and provides a coordinated optimal load shedding scheme for the nexus system security. A coherent risk measure, Conditional Value-at-Risk is incorporated into the RA-DRO to model risk. A Benders decomposition method is used to solve the original NP-hard RA-DRO problem. Case studies are demonstrated on a WES under water-energy nexus and results show that the effectiveness of the method to mitigate risks from potential FDIA and renewable uncertainties. This research provides WES operators an economic system operation tool by optimally coordinating energy infrastructures and implementing reasonable load shedding to enhance cybersecurity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As power systems are undergoing a significant transformation with more uncertainties, less inertia and closer to operation limits, there is increasing risk of large outages. Thus, there is an imperative need to enhance grid emergency control to maintain system reliability and security. Towards this end, great progress has been made in developing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based grid control solutions in recent years. However, existing DRL-based solutions have two main limitations: 1) they cannot handle well with a wide range of grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies; 2) they generally lack the ability to fast adapt to new grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies, limiting their applicability for real-world applications. In this paper, we mitigate these limitations by developing a novel deep meta-reinforcement learning (DMRL) algorithm. The DMRL combines the meta strategy optimization together with DRL, and trains policies modulated by a latent space that can quickly adapt to new scenarios. We test the developed DMRL algorithm on the IEEE 300-bus system. We demonstrate fast adaptation of the meta-trained DRL polices with latent variables to new operating conditions and scenarios using the proposed method, which achieves superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art DRL and model predictive control (MPC) methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel stochastic robust real-time power dispatch model considering wind uncertainty. In this dispatch model that incorporates automatic power generation control, system constraints are constructed with affinely adjustable robust optimization to enhance the system security, while the objective concerning the expected value of generation cost is optimized to improve the cost efficiency. The optimized objective is consistent with stochastic optimization, while the formulation for the objective is different. A Nataf conversion-based three-point estimate (NC-TPE) is adopted, which uses an approximating function to formulate the expected generation cost with deterministic estimate points. Compared to traditional stochastic sampling methods, the deterministic assessment method NC-TPE achieves an accurate formulation with more stable and efficient computation performance. The dispatch model is derived as a problem with nonconvex objective and bilinear constraints using the dual theory. To address the highly nonconvex problem, the objective and bilinear constraints are first converted to difference-of-convexity functions, and then a tailored difference-of-convexity optimization is employed to convexify the nonconvex functions, such that the original problem can be solved with an iterative quadratically constrained program. Numerical simulations demonstrate the economic superiority and robustness of the proposed model, as well as the effectiveness of the convexified solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transmission system operators (TSOs) in recent years have faced challenges in order to ensure maximum transmission capacity of the system to satisfy market needs, while maintaining operational safety and permissible impact on the environment. A great help in the decision-making process was introduced with the Dynamic Thermal Rating (DTR) – an instrument to monitor and predict the maximal allowed ampacity of the power grid based on weather measurements and forecast. However, the introduction of DTR raises a number of questions related to the accuracy and uncertainty of the results of thermal assessment and the level of acceptable risk and its management. In this paper, we present a solution for estimating DTR uncertainty, appropriate for operational use at TSOs. With the help of conductor surface temperature measurements, weather measurements and predicted weather data, we also estimate the error of the weather forecast and the DTR itself. Following the results of the data analyses, we build an operative solution for estimating the ampacity uncertainty based on Monte Carlo random simulations and integrate it into the operational environment of ELES – the operator of the Slovenian electric power transmission network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a market framework to approach economic dispatch as a subproblem in smart distribution systems. Four subproblems are associated with four different submarkets (SMs) in the presented framework. Market participants are eligible to bid in different submarkets based on the type of their distributed generation (DG) unit. To effectively tackle the conflicts among objective functions of different submarkets, the corresponding formulated subproblems are assigned to two different agents, namely distribution system operator (DSO) and a green bank agent (GBA). A communication mechanism is designed within the proposed framework such that DSO and GBA compromise their solutions and find a tradeoff to reasonably address the concerns of the four subproblems within SMs 1-4. The effectiveness of the proposed market framework is validated on a well-known 136-bus distribution system, which is modified to contain wind turbine DG aggregators, photovoltaic DG aggregators, and diesel-engine DG aggregators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern photovoltaic inverter has an active power-reactive power (Watt-VAr) control curve that is part of its management modes. The Watt-VAr curve, whose settings can be remotely modified, regulates the inverter reactive power output in function of its active power. This paper proposes the optimization of inverter segregated linear decision rules (LDRs), starting from the legacy Volt-VAr optimization in distribution networks. As opposed to classical LDRs that are interfaced with Volt-VAr optimization, the segregated LDRs are piecewise linear continuous curves that directly satisfy the reactive power capability of inverters, and their multiple segments can capture the correlation in solar power variability. The paper presents linear programming formulations for optimizing the segregated linear decision rules using stochastic optimization, robust optimization, and distributionally robust optimization. The optimization schemes are demonstrated on both meshed and radial networks, and their performance is validated via Monte-Carlo simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a multi-period active distribution network planning (ADNP) with distributed generation (DG). The objective of the proposed ADNP is to minimize the total planning cost, subject to both investment and operation constraints. The paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic optimization model to address DG uncertainties over several periods, in which the decisions are made sequentially by only using the present-stage information. A nested decomposition method is proposed which applies the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming (SDDIP) method to address computational intractabilities of the proposed ADNP approach. The presented numerical results and discussions on a 33-bus distribution system and a large-scale 906-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed ADNP method and its solution method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ever-increasing integration of variable wind energy requests for a power system with high flexibility. In this paper, we formulate the real-time economic dispatch problem as a multi-stage robust program to leverage flexible resources, especially energy storage systems, in a broader timescale, and also to avoid the risk of high costs in critical scenarios. The multi-stage robust program is decomposed to the dynamic programming form and the fast robust dual dynamic programming (FRDDP) algorithm is developed to solve it efficiently. To tackle the nonconvexities caused by the inter-temporal constraints of ESSs, an estimation-correction method is developed, and measures of the approximation accuracy are presented. Comprehensive case studies comprising units up to 1371 are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. Numerical results show that compared with the existing ones, the proposed multi-stage robust model achieves lower cost under the worst-case scenario and shows better scalability in large-scale systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a novel two-stage coordinated volt-pressure optimization (VPO) for integrated energy systems (IES) networked with energy hubs considering renewable energy sources. The promising power-to-gas (P2G) facilities are used for improving the interdependency of the IES. The proposed VPO contains the traditional volt-VAR optimization functionality to mitigate the voltage deviation while ensuring a satisfying gas quality due to the hydrogen mixture. In addition to the conventional voltage regulating devices, i.e., on-load tap changers and capacitor banks, P2G converter and gas storage are used to address the voltage fluctuation problem caused by renewable penetration. Moreover, an effective two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) based on Wasserstein metric is utilized to capture the renewable uncertainty with tractable robust counterpart reformulations. The Wasserstein-metric based ambiguity set enables to provide additional flexibility hedging against renewable uncertainty. Extensive case studies are conducted in a modified IEEE 33-bus system connected with a 20-node gas system. The proposed VPO provides a voltage-regulated economic operation scheme with gas quality ensured that contributes to high-quality but low-cost multi-energy supply to customers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) plans to introduce 30-minute short-term reserve (STR) to address 30 minutes system flexibility needs. Transmission bottlenecks in the power system may inhibit the deliverability of STR. Insufficient deliverable reserve may require additional operator manual adjustments, which may be uneconomic and distort the market price signal. To improve reserve deliverability, event-based zonal STR clearing model and nodal STR clearing model are proposed to distribute reserve across the grid. This paper compares reserve deliverability and market clearing prices between the zonal STR model and the nodal STR model. A new design on penalty function is proposed in this paper to reflect the true value of security constraints for reserve deployment with the consideration of multiple events. Analysis of MISO test cases shows that the zonal approach is imprecise and may not guarantee the actual post-event flows within the physical limits. Nodal STR model can improve the reserve deliverability, market efficiency, and price signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Block orders are increasingly adopted in many electricity markets as they enable power producers to implicitly express their unit commitment characteristics and address price volatility risks. However, previous work on the optimal offering problem of a price-taking producer participating in such markets has only considered the simplest type of block orders (regular block orders-RBO) and has neglected relevant realistic market regulations. This paper addresses these simplifications by proposing a new optimal offering model which also considers the more complex profile block orders (PBO) and linked block orders (LBO). This model is generic in that it can treat the block orders’ time spans either as fixed parameters (following the modelling approach of previous work) or as endogenous decision variables, which constitutes a completely novel modeling approach. The presented case studies demonstrate that this novel approach yields a tremendously lower number of binary variables and more efficient computational performance, when PBO and LBO are considered. Furthermore, the case studies analyze the physical conditions under which the introduction of different types of block orders increases the examined producer’s profit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) integration strengthens the need for a power network that can robustly handle the system’s uncertain scenarios. This paper proposes the first nonlinear novel dual-based bi-level approach for robust AC Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP) with uncertainties in RES generations and loads. It utilizes a convex relaxation and is solved by Benders Decomposition (BD), where the master determines the robust AC expansion plan. The novel dual slave for the second level of BD circumvents the issues in using conventional conic dual theory and aids in the worst-case realization of uncertainties using additional novel constraints. The proposed slave is solved using Interior Point Method (IPM), as it is not a mixed-integer problem. The proposed work includes additional linear constraints to speed up BD’s convergence and direct the master towards optimality. The approach is tested on several transmission systems, including the Indian Northern Regional Power Grid (NRPG) system. The robustness of the obtained plans is verified by Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the actual nonlinear and nonconvex AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF). The effect of the budget of uncertainty on the AC expansion plan is also investigated. A comparison with two previous works reveals the efficacy of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, accurate and efficient probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) calculation becomes more and more important to provide decision support for secure and economic operation of power systems. This paper develops a novel nonparametric probabilistic optimal power flow (N-POPF) model describing the probabilistic information by quantiles, which avoids any parametric probability distribution assumptions of random variables. A novel critical region integral method (CRIM) which combines the multiparametric programming theory and discrete integral is proposed to efficiently solve the N-POPF problem. In the CRIM, the critical region partitioning algorithm is firstly introduced into the POPF model to directly establish the mapping relationship from wind power to optimal solutions of the POPF problem. Besides, a discrete integral method is developed in the CRIM to achieve the probability convolution calculation based on quantiles. Comprehensive numerical experiments verify the superior performance of the proposed CRIM in estimation accuracy and computational efficiency, and demonstrate that N-POPF model significantly improves the accuracy of uncertainty analysis. In general, the proposed N-POPF model and CRIM form a new framework of POPF problem for power system analysis and operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel modeling framework and decomposition-based solution strategy combining stochastic programming (SP) and robust optimization (RO) to deal with multiplex uncertainties in coordinated mid- and long-term power system planning. The problem is formulated as a multi-year generation and transmission planning problem from an independent system operator (ISO)’s perspective to minimize both expansion and operational costs under binary and continuous uncertainties, ${\bf i.e.}$ , system component contingency and load/generation variation. N- $\bf {k}$ contingencies are captured in RO using the reformulated contingency criteria, while the load/generation uncertainty is considered in SP embedded with RO using operating scenarios generated from the historical data with spatiotemporal correlations. The original hybrid model is highly intractable, but the intractability can be relieved by the proposed decomposition strategy based on the column-and-constraint generation and L-shaped algorithms. We apply our model to perform long-term system planning under extremely high renewable penetration and investigate the case of 100% renewables in long-term planning. Numerical experiments on multi-scale test systems verify the efficacy of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing need for new optimization methods to facilitate the reliable and cost-effective operation of power systems with intermittent renewable energy resources. In this paper, we formulate the robust AC optimal power flow (RAC-OPF) problem as a two-stage robust optimization problem with recourse. This problem amounts to a nonconvex infinite-dimensional optimization problem that is computationally intractable, in general. Under the assumption that there is adjustable generation or load at every bus in the power transmission network, we develop a technique to approximate RAC-OPF from within by a finite-dimensional semidefinite program by restricting the space of recourse policies to be affine in the uncertain problem data. We establish a sufficient condition under which the semidefinite program returns an affine recourse policy that is guaranteed to be feasible for the original RAC-OPF problem. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed optimization method on the WSCC 9-bus and IEEE 14-bus test systems with different levels of renewable resource penetration and uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a computationally efficient algorithm which speeds up the probabilistic power flow (PPF) problem by exploiting the inherently low-rank nature of the voltage profile in electrical power distribution networks. The algorithm is accordingly termed the Accelerated-PPF (APPF), since it can accelerate “any” sampling-based PPF solver. As the APPF runs, it concurrently generates a low-dimensional subspace of orthonormalized solution vectors. This subspace is used to construct and update a reduced order model (ROM) of the full nonlinear system, resulting in a highly efficient simulation for future voltage profiles. When constructing and updating the subspace, the power flow problem must still be solved on the full nonlinear system. In order to accelerate the computation of these solutions, a Neumann expansion of a modified power flow Jacobian is implemented. Applicable when load bus injections are small, this Neumann expansion allows for a considerable speed up of Jacobian system solves during the standard Newton iterations. APPF test results, from experiments run on the full IEEE 8500-node test feeder, are finally presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 20 years, the rapid integration of renewable energy has resulted in electricity markets that are increasingly complex, interconnected, and uncertain. Similar to the banking system's financial crisis in 2008 due to chained reactions, severe financial losses due to uncertainty at a large renewable farm could induce significant financial losses at other market participants. The spread of such financial shocks can be worsened by centralized market clearing, and systemic risks consequently germinate in electricity market operations. Therefore, our previous work has compared systemic risk with systematic risk in the electricity market with uncertainties. However, the scope of our previous work has been limited to risk indices. This paper aims to broaden the study by proposing the theoretical foundation of systemic risk analysis in electricity markets with uncertainties. First, an electricity market financial network is defined to describe the cash inflow/outflow of all participants, and the financial contagion is employed to model the interlinks between different entities. Then, two financial properties, financial resilience and financial reliability, are proposed to evaluate the systemic risk in market settlements with uncertainties. Finally, the proposed theoretical foundation of systemic risk is demonstrated on the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system with 70% renewable penetration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainties in renewable generation make accurate load forecast essential for reliable power system operation. This paper considers energy imbalance market (EIM), where market players are allowed to procure energy ahead of time and trade the mismatch due to forecast error and strategic behaviors. The ISO sets the trading prices according to the market conditions, and pursues various system-level objectives. We first identify the power-law relationship between data volume and forecast accuracy, which enables the formulation of forecast cost model. Then, we cast the interactions in the EIM in the Stackelberg game framework with the ISO acting as the leader. We offer explicit subgame perfect equilibrium among the players in EIM, and derive the sufficient condition for the existence of unique equilibrium. Then, we show that this equilibrium, if exists, supports the maximal social welfare and under certain conditions, minimizes the total mismatch. We further examine the local and global impacts of the forecast errors under mild conditions, together with robustness analysis. Such analysis provides mechanism design guidelines for the ISO to enable the data sharing and forecast method sharing among market players in the EIM. Numerical studies further examine the effectiveness, robustness and sensitivity of the subgame. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new deep learning (DL) based model-free robust method for bulk system on-line load restoration with high penetration of wind power. Inspired by the iterative calculation of the two-stage robust load restoration model, the deep neural network (DNN) and deep convolutional neural network (CNN) are respectively designed to find the worst-case system condition of a load pickup decision and evaluate the corresponding security. In order to find the optimal result within a limited number of checks, a load pickup checklist generation (LPCG) algorithm is developed to ensure the optimality. Then, the fast robust load restoration strategy acquisition is achieved based on the designed one-line strategy generation (OSG) algorithm. The proposed method finds the optimal result in a model-free way, holds the robustness to handle uncertainties, and provides real-time computation. It can completely replace conventional robust optimization and supports on-line robust load restoration which better satisfies the changeable restoration process. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using the IEEE 30-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system, showing high computational efficiency and considerable accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies have focused on assessing the transient and steady-state voltage stability status of dynamic systems simultaneously. This motivated us to propose a new concept referred to as joint voltage stability assessment (JVSA). Towards this end, this paper proposes a novel data-driven JVSA method considering load uncertainty. It combines multiple convolutional neural networks (multi-CNNs) and a novel variational Bayes (VB) inference for better JVSA accuracy. First, the multi-CNN model is utilized to fast estimate the maximum voltage deviations during the transient and steady-state process. Uncertain load scenarios and system topology under $N$ -1 contingency with are chosen as inputs of each CNN model. Second, estimated voltage deviations are put into the VB inference to automatically infer the transient and steady-state voltage stability status. To validate its effectiveness, numerical simulations are performed on the modified WECC 179-bus system by comparing with benchmark algorithms. It is demonstrated that the proposed data-driven JVSA method is more accurate and faster than the conventional VSA method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New resource mix, e.g., renewable resources, are imposing operational complexities to modern power systems by intensifying uncertainty and variability in the system net load. This issue has motivated independent system operators (ISOs), e.g., California ISO (CAISO), to add flexible ramping products (FRPs) to their day-ahead (DA) market models. Such structural changes in the DA market formulation require further analyses and detailed design to ensure adequate operational flexibility, market efficiency, and reliability. This paper conducts a comprehensive study to: (a) augment existing DA market models with enhanced FRP design to schedule ramp capabilities that are more adaptive with respect to the real-time (RT) 15-min net load variability and uncertainty, and (b) design corresponding market payment policies that accurately reflect the value of the added flexibility through enhanced FRP design. The proposed FRP design can be implemented in present-day system operations with minimal disruption to existing DA market models. Performance of the proposed DA market model, which includes the enhanced FRP design, is compared against the DA market model with existing FRP design through a validation methodology based on RT unit commitment model. This validation methodology mimics fifteen-minute markets of CAISO. The proposed method is tested on an IEEE 118-bus test system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the installation of electronically interconnected renewable energy resources grows rapidly in power systems, system frequency maintenance and control become challenging problems to maintain the system reliability in bulk power systems. As two of the most important frequency control actions in the control centers of independent system operators (ISOs) and utilities, the interaction between Economic Dispatch (ED) and Automatic Generation Control (AGC) attracts more and more attention. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization based framework to measure the system flexibility by considering the interaction between two hierarchical processes (i.e., ED and AGC). We propose a cutting plane algorithm with the reformulation technique to obtain seven different indices of the system. In addition, we study the impacts of several system factors (i.e., the budget of operational cost, ramping capability, and transmission line capacity) and show numerically how these factors can influence the system flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers an event-triggered mechanism (ETM) for multiple frequency services of electric vehicles (EVs) in smart grids (SGs). A new model of a SG with an ETM and multiple agents of EVs is introduced. ETM is deployed to reduce the load on network bandwidth. EVs are incorporated in both secondary and primary frequency services to suppress frequency fluctuations in the system. The behaviours of EV owners are also considered by using batteries SOC controls. Then, a mathematical model of the system is derived which contains parametric uncertainties due to the incorporation of SOC control, an ETM variable arising from ETM control, and a time-varying delay in both the state and control input vectors. We derive new Lyapunov stability and stabilizability conditions to ensure robust $H_{\infty }$ performance of the closed-loop system. The conditions are derived based on various mathematical tools including relaxed Jensen inequality, free weighting matrix technique, reciprocally convex approach, and matrix inequality for uncertainties. An effective procedure is proposed based on an approach using the state transformation and tractable linear matrix inequalities to synthesis robust static output feedback controller gains. Extensive simulations of a SG with three agents of EVs are undertaken to validate of our proposed control scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model is used for power system day-ahead scheduling. However, current SCUC model uses a static network to deliver power and meet demand optimally. A dynamic network can provide a lower optimal cost and alleviate network congestion. However, due to the computational complexity and the lack of effective algorithms, network reconfiguration has not been included in the SCUC model yet. This paper presents a novel approach to handle the computational complexity in security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) with corrective network reconfiguration (CNR) while considering the scalability through accelerated-decomposition approach with fast screening non-critical sub-problems of SCUC-CNR. The proposed approach provides substantial computational benefits and is also applicable to SCUC. Simulation results on the IEEE 24-bus system show that the proposed methods are substantially faster without the loss in solution quality while the scalability benefits are demonstrated using larger cases: the IEEE 73-bus system, IEEE 118-bus system and Polish system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reduced level of system inertia due to renewable integration increases the need for cost-effective provision of ancillary services, such as Frequency Response (FR). In this paper a closed-form solution to the differential equation describing frequency dynamics is proposed, which allows to obtain frequency-security algebraic constraints to be implemented in optimization routines. This is done while considering any finite number of FR services with distinguished characteristics, such as different delivery times and activation delays. The problem defined by these frequency-security constraints can be formulated as a Mixed-Integer Second-Order Cone Program (MISOCP), which can be efficiently handled by off-the-shelf conic optimization solvers. This paper also takes into account the uncertainty in inertia contribution from the demand side by formulating the frequency-security conditions as chance constraints, for which an exact convex reformulation is provided. Finally, case studies highlighting the effectiveness of this frequency-secured formulation are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic optimization can be used to model predictable but uncertain element failures, in an attempt to enhance system reliability in power system operation and planning. In practical applications, such as preventive operation during severe weather, the uncertainty set is often very large. This will lead to two challenges: (i) every possible scenario cannot be practically identified; and (ii) the computational demands of stochastic optimization with a large scenario set cannot be met. To address these challenges, this paper develops a multidimensional scenario selection method, which creates a rather small but representative set of scenarios. The developed method makes use of failure features as well as network features of the elements that may fail, to achieve a superior performance. The simulations studies on a synthetic large-scale Texas system, show the dominant performance of the method compared to existing algorithms in the literature, as well as common industry practices. Due to its effectiveness, the method presented in this paper enables computationally efficient implementation of stochastic power system operation and planning software tools. Such stochastic tools will improve system reliability and efficiency through enhanced use of the existing resources, without requiring any expensive system upgrade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing penetrations of renewable energy in the electricity sector and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the transportation sector have increased the interests in introducing new methods to deal with uncertainties in power system studies. In this paper, a new distributionally robust optimization (DRO) via scenario wise ambiguity set is proposed to develop a collaborative bidding strategy for intermittent resources such as hydroelectric generation, wind farms, solar farms and electric vehicle aggregator in the day-ahead energy market. The proposed scenario wise ambiguity set is based on Wasserstein distance and is capable of considering both distributional information and statistical distance metric information in the ambiguity set. In this context, the robust counterpart of proposed DRO applying scenario based affine recourse approximation is developed in this paper. The proposed methodology is applied on a 3-bus test system as well as IEEE 118-bus test system to corroborate the effectiveness of the novel DRO model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is hard to obtain precise wind power forecasting due to the chaotic nature of weather systems. Prediction intervals become an efficient tool to quantify the uncertainty involved in wind power forecasting. Traditional central prediction intervals are widely produced by forecasters, however, which might be conservative with respect to interval width and not well fit the practical conditions. This paper develops a novel adaptive bilevel programming (ABP) model, with extreme learning machine based quantile regression as the follower's problem and tuning hyperparameters of quantile proportions as the leader's problem. The proposed ABP model aims at minimizing the average interval width subject to well calibration. In order to overcome the difficulties in disposing of the intractable nested structure of bilevel programming, the ABP model is equivalently transformed into a single-level nonlinear programming problem with bilinear terms. An improved spatial branch-and-bound (ISBB) algorithm is proposed to efficiently solve the reformulated bilinear programming problem. In the ISBB algorithm, an innovative bounds tightening method is developed to tighten the convex relaxation of the bilinear constraint and enhance the convergence. Experimental studies based on actual wind farm of USA under four seasons show the significant effectiveness and high robustness of the developed ABP model, as well as the excellent global optimum attainment and convergence performance of the proposed ISBB algorithm. Moreover, the widely used traditional interval scores are first verified to be prejudiced in probabilistic wind power forecasting evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flexibility is a widely used term in planning process and real-time operation. The existing research on flexibility uses different techniques to study flexibility property from different aspects. While studying a property from various viewpoints increases the understanding on the subject, we need a consistent theoretical framework to consolidate the ideas generated in the field, compare and contrast results, and build on for future analysis. Based on the insights of the nature of flexibility, this paper proposes a unified framework for defining and measuring flexibility in power system. Under the proposed framework, we propose a flexibility metric which evaluates the largest variation range of uncertainty that the system can accommodate. Such a metric takes into account transmission network and system operations constraints, which are critical to assessing flexibility, but are often ignored in literature. A robust optimization technique is used to calculate the proposed metrics. While the illustrative example presented in this paper focuses on the flexibility in real-time system operation in the presence of wind and load uncertainty, this framework can generally be applicable to long-term studies such as system planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision models used in wholesale electricity markets are advancing to manage adequately distributed storage on the grid and grapple with increasing stochasticity and variability in net-load. The goal of this paper is to address these three issues jointly, by introducing a continuous-time stochastic multi-stage reserve unit commitment. Compared to the conventional unit commitment (UC) formulation, the one we propose a) accommodates storage devices with limited energy capacity, b) addresses load uncertainty through a multi-variate scenario tree, and c) models, through a piece-wise polynomial approximation, continuous-time changes in load and generation. In numerical simulations, we compare the system operating cost of our approach relative to relaxations of our proposed formulation, including the conventional UC. The comparisons show the relative impact of the three modeling pillars of our formulation, aimed at capturing storage constraints, uncertainty, and ramping events with inter-hourly variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing necessity for new long-term planning models to adequately assess the flexibility requirements of significant levels of short-term operational uncertainty in power systems with large shares of variable renewable energy. In this context, this paper proposes an adaptive robust optimization model for the generation and transmission expansion planning problem. The proposed model has a two-stage structure that separates investment and operational decisions, over a given planning horizon. The key attribute of this model is the representation of daily operational uncertainty through the concept of representative days and the design of uncertainty sets that determine load and renewable power over such days. This setup allows an effective representation of the flexibility requirements of a system with large shares of variable renewable energy, and the consideration of a broad range of operational conditions. To efficiently solve the problem, the column and constraint generation method is employed. Extensive computational experiments on a 20-bus and a 149-bus representation of the Chilean power system over a 20-year horizon show the computational efficiency of the proposed approach, and the advantages as compared to a deterministic model with representative days, due to an effective spatial placement of both variable resources and flexible resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a two-timescale multi-objective coordinated volt/var optimization system for active distribution networks with renewable energy resources (RESs). In the hourly timescale, power loss and the number of control actions of on-load tap changers and (switchable) shunt capacitors for 24 h are minimized by coordinating on-load tap changers, (switchable) shunt capacitors, and reactive power outputs of RESs. A three-step method consisting of global search, user preference, and local search is adopted to solve the corresponding multi-objective mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. A rolling volt/var optimization is executed every 6 h, considering the day-ahead RES forecast errors. In the 15-min timescale, the RES reactive powers are optimized with RES uncertainties explicitly taken into consideration to minimize the pilot-bus voltage deviation under all representative scenarios. The pilot buses are those buses whose voltage magnitudes capture the network voltage profile. In this paper, a linear method is applied to quickly identify a set of pilot buses, and the impact of the identified pilot bus on the entire network voltage profile is evaluated. The IEEE 33-bus distribution network is used to evaluate the proposed two-timescale volt/var optimization formulations and methods with promising results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]