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Due to the rapid development of distributed renewable generation, an effective risk assessment and early warning mechanism for active distribution networks is of great significance to maintain the system reliability and enhance energy grid resilience. In this paper, a novel risk assessment model is proposed to assess the probability of potential disturbances to the grid and provide accurate advice for trading prosumers’ renewable energy. The model can compute node failure probability (FP) for transmission networks as well as the area FP for distribution networks, while combining the two perspectives by topology analysis. A weather threshold value is first derived to define the extreme weather condition. Then the FP of transmission lines is calculated by joint probability models under four instances of extreme climate. For distribution networks, the weather influence is obtained by applying the Rare Events Logistic Regression model initially. Then the equipment fault related to the geographical feature is captured using feeder taxonomy and hierarchical clustering. Furthermore, the accidental factor as a new parameter is introduced to evaluate the vandalism, vegetation, and operating fault to the grid. Finally, the warning information and advice for customers will be presented after fault chain analysis. The FP for a specific area in Australia is analyzed in case studies to verify the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a property rights model for electric transmission is proposed and its properties analyzed. The proposed rights, called "border flow rights," support financial hedging of transmission risk and merchant transmission expansion through associated financial rights, called "contracts for differences of differences." These financial rights allow for forward trading of both energy and transmission by a unified exchange, avoiding the bifurcation in current markets between decentralized long-term energy trading and centralized long-term transmission trading. Such long-term trading can help to support the financing of both generation and transmission assets. We consider incentive properties of such a right in the absence of lumpiness, economies of scale, and market power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]