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This paper presents a new non-deterministic approach for multiyear distribution network reinforcement planning (DNRP) considering the uncertainty sources pertaining to loads, electricity prices, investment costs, and operation costs. Accordingly, the underlying idea of the information-gap decision theory (IGDT) is used to obtain a robust solution protected against different realizations of each uncertain variable lying in its robust region. The proposed model is capable of adjusting the robustness of the optimal solution in terms of a specific parameter designated as the budget of uncertainty. As the uncertain loads, investment and operation costs competitively tend to maximize their robust regions for a particular value of the budget of uncertainty, the normalized normal constraint (NNC) method as a proficient multi-objective optimization method is exploited in this paper to solve the proposed multiobjective IGDT-based DNRP (IGDT-DNRP) model. Mainly, the NNC method presents a set of Pareto optimal solutions rather than a single optimal solution. Accordingly, a posteriori out-of-sample analysis is introduced in this paper to find the best solution among the set of Pareto optimal solutions. The proposed IGDT-DNRP model is implemented on the IEEE 33-bus distribution network under different circumstances. Simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed nondeterministic approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extending traditional deterministic economic dispatch to incorporate significant stochastic wind power is an important but challenging task in today's power system decision making. In this paper, this issue is formulated as a chance-constrained economic dispatch (CCED) problem. Usually, in the presence of non-Gaussian correlated random variables, both the objective function and constraints are difficult to handle. To address this issue, this paper provides a novel method dealing with non-Gaussian random variables. First, the Gaussian mixture model is adopted to represent the joint probability density function of power output for multiple wind farms. Then, analytical formulae are derived that can be used for fast computation of partial derivatives of the objective function and transformation of chance constraints into linear ones. Thereafter, the CCED can be solved as a deterministic linear convex optimization with a global optimal solution. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methodology are validated via a case study with a modified IEEE 39-bus system. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

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This paper presents some results on the accuracy of normal form analysis for large deviations from the stable equilibrium point (SEP) in a power system. The results of studies on the region of convergence of Neumann series, which is required for normal form analysis, are presented. A polynomial function approximation is proposed to model the generator exciter limiter. Studies on the accuracy of higher order normal form analysis for large deviations from SEP are presented. Use of Prony analysis in addition to simulation is proposed for the verification of accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) are regarded as one of the promising resources for suppressing power fluctuations due to renewable energy (RENs). However, due to the great burdens of fully considering each users’ characteristics, it is difficult to achieve unity of the individual optimal decisions and global optimum in demand-side management (DSM). This paper proposes a game-theoretic DSM that can optimize the global power consumption schedule by individual TCL user's optimization. By integrating the prediction of REN outputs into the pricing mechanism, the proposed DSM can guide the users to make their best power consumption schedules along with intermittent REN generations, thus to smooth the tie-line power of microgrids. In this paper, a novel pricing mechanism is firstly developed based on the concave N-person game theory, which is more adaptive and flexible compared with existing game-theoretic DSM. Then, an individual's power consumption optimization and its simplified model are developed considering the constraints of the TCL model and personal preferences. The simplified model can be easily solved and achieve a fast solution in the power consumption game. An implementation framework of the proposed DSM is further developed for practical application. Finally, numerical studies verify the effectiveness of the proposed models and methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban power grids are facing many operational and expansion challenges to meet further demand growth and increased reliability requirements. Advanced transmission technologies have been considered by the electric utilities to effectively increase the utilization of existing infrastructure and operational flexibility. The focus of this paper is on VSC-HVDC technologies for urban power grid enhancement and modernization. First, a potential technical scheme is proposed for converting an existing AC circuit to DC operation, which could boost the power transfer capability of the critical transmission corridor and increase network operational flexibility. Second, this paper proposes three operation modes for the VSC-HVDC interties in urban power grids corresponding to normal, emergency and island operating conditions, respectively. An integrated, adaptive emergency control strategy (AEC) is proposed that can enable adaptive power flow responses of the VSC-HVDC intertie under varying system operating conditions and critical contingencies. The flexibility and effectiveness of the proposed operational principles of urban VSC-HVDC intertie and the corresponding control strategies are verified in PSCAD/EMTDC using a realistic urban power grid in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a systematic and general approach to model correlated stochastic processes in power systems by means of stochastic differential-algebraic equations. The paper discusses the theoretical background of stochastic differential-algebraic equations and provides a variety of examples of correlated stochastic models for power system applications. With this aim, stochastic processes with Normal and Weibull distributions are considered. The case study utilizes the well-known two-area system to demonstrate that the presence of correlation between the stochastic processes can cause instability, despite the fact that the same system is stable if the same processes are uncorrelated. The case study also considers a 1479-bus dynamic model of the all-island Irish transmission system to show the scalability of the proposed technique, and to compare scenarios with different levels of correlation among stochastic processes. Results indicate that correlation has a non-negligible impact on short-term dynamics. A high level of correlation among the processes, in fact, can give raise to instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates that false data injection (FDI) attacks are extremely limited in their ability to cause physical consequences on $N-1$ reliable power systems operating with real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) and security constrained economic dispatch (SCED). Prior work has shown that FDI attacks can be designed via an attacker-defender bi-level linear program (ADBLP) to cause physical overflows after re-dispatch using DCOPF. In this paper, it is shown that attacks designed using DCOPF fail to cause overflows on $N-1$ reliable systems because the system response modeled is inaccurate. An ADBLP that accurately models the system response is proposed to find the worst-case physical consequences, thereby modeling a strong attacker with system level knowledge. Simulation results on the synthetic Texas system with 2000 buses show that even with the new enhanced attacks, for systems operated conservatively due to $N-1$ constraints, the designed attacks only lead to post-contingency overflows. Moreover, the attacker must control a large portion of measurements and physically create a contingency in the system to cause consequences. Therefore, it is conceivable but requires an extremely sophisticated attacker to cause physical consequences on $N-1$ reliable power systems operated with RTCA and SCED. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pricing multi-interval economic dispatch of electric power under operational uncertainty is considered in this two-part paper. Part I investigates dispatch-following incentives of profit-maximizing generators and shows that, under mild conditions, no uniform-pricing scheme for the rolling-window economic dispatch provides dispatch-following incentives that avoid discriminative out-of-the-market uplifts. A nonuniform pricing mechanism, referred to as the temporal locational marginal pricing (TLMP), is proposed. As an extension of the standard locational marginal pricing (LMP), TLMP takes into account both generation and ramping-induced opportunity costs. It eliminates the need for the out-of-the-market uplifts and guarantees full dispatch-following incentives regardless of the accuracy of the demand forecasts used in the dispatch. It is also shown that, under TLMP, a price-taking market participant has incentives to bid truthfully with its marginal cost of generation. Part II of the paper extends the theoretical results developed in Part I to more general network settings. It investigates a broader set of performance measures, including the incentives of the truthful revelation of ramping limits, revenue adequacy of the operator, consumer payments, generator profits, and price volatility under the rolling-window dispatch model with demand forecast errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As power systems are undergoing a significant transformation with more uncertainties, less inertia and closer to operation limits, there is increasing risk of large outages. Thus, there is an imperative need to enhance grid emergency control to maintain system reliability and security. Towards this end, great progress has been made in developing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based grid control solutions in recent years. However, existing DRL-based solutions have two main limitations: 1) they cannot handle well with a wide range of grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies; 2) they generally lack the ability to fast adapt to new grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies, limiting their applicability for real-world applications. In this paper, we mitigate these limitations by developing a novel deep meta-reinforcement learning (DMRL) algorithm. The DMRL combines the meta strategy optimization together with DRL, and trains policies modulated by a latent space that can quickly adapt to new scenarios. We test the developed DMRL algorithm on the IEEE 300-bus system. We demonstrate fast adaptation of the meta-trained DRL polices with latent variables to new operating conditions and scenarios using the proposed method, which achieves superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art DRL and model predictive control (MPC) methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring long-term voltage stability is critical for reliable operations of power grids. High share of distributed energy resources (DERs) can create complicated system operation modes that may invalidate the traditional long-term voltage stability analysis based on typical operation modes. To address this challenge, this paper investigates how to compute the shortest path to the voltage stability boundary in the DER aggregated load space with large dispersion. Instead of working in the Euclidean space, we establish the analysis and computations on the algebraic power flow manifold to better capture the curvature change of the shortest path along the direction of losing stability. A modified optimal control framework is presented for obtaining the ground-truth of the smooth shortest path on the manifold. To efficiently and accurately solve for the shortest path, we further leverage the geometric features of the power flow manifold and propose a tri-sectional approximation model that is scalable for large-scale systems. Several numerical examples, up to the 1354-bus system, with different DER penetration levels and high dimensional renewable power injection variations are evaluated. The simulation results demonstrate that the tri-sectional approximation achieves high accuracy and efficiency to approximate the shortest path to the voltage stability boundary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a semi-analytical method to obtain the equilibrium bidding strategies for generation and demand units in a combined oligopoly and oligopsony wholesale electricity market. Such market structure is the outcome of the increasing deployment of demand response programs that facilitate active participation of demand-side players in the price-setting process. In this analysis, the concept of supply function equilibrium (SFE) is used to investigate the oligopolistic competition among generation units. The SFE model is extended and the demand function equilibrium (DFE) is obtained to study the oligopsonistic competition among demand units. The economic behavior of a market participant is formulated as a bi-level programming (BLP) problem. The imperfect competition among generation units, as well as among demand units, are modeled as a non-cooperative game. Next, a direct method is developed to calculate all candidate equilibriums of the market, and the locational marginal prices (LMPs) in terms of the bidding strategies of the market participants. The BLP problem is solved by obtaining the coordinated Pareto-dominant Nash equilibrium of the market participants’ non-cooperative games. Finally, the proposed analysis is examined in case studies. Accordingly, we report insightful observations with respect to the impact of the changes in the new market structure, at firm-level and market-level, such as in terms of mitigating market power of generation units, the market clearing prices and quantities, surplus for generation units and demand units, and potential impact on market efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many power systems, the increased penetration of inverter-based renewable generation will cause a decrease in kinetic energy storage, leading to higher frequency excursions after a power disturbance. This is the case of the future Nordic Power System (NPS). The look-ahead study reported in this paper shows that the chosen units participating in Frequency Containment Reserves (FCR) cannot keep the frequency above the prescribed threshold following the outage of the largest plant. This analysis relies on a detailed model of the Northern European grid. The latter is compared to the classical single-mass equivalent, and the impact of voltage-dependent loads is assessed in some detail. Next, the paper focuses on emergency power control of the HVDC links that connect the NPS to the rest of the European grid, which can supplement or even replace part of the FCR. The proper tuning of that control is discussed. Finally, the analysis is extended to the HVDC links connecting the future North Sea Wind Power Hub under two configurations, namely low and zero inertia. The impact of outages in the latter sub-system is also assessed. The material to simulate the system with industrial software is made publicly available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a computation-efficient stochastic dynamic programming algorithm for solving energy storage price arbitrage considering variable charge and discharge efficiencies. We formulate the price arbitrage problem using stochastic dynamic programming and model real-time prices as a Markov process. Then we propose an analytical solution algorithm using a piecewise linear approximation of the value-to-go function. Our solution algorithm achieves extreme computation performance and solves the proposed arbitrage problem for one operating day in less than one second on a personal computer. We demonstrate our approach using historical price data from four price zones in New York Independent System Operator, with case studies comparing the performance of different stochastic models and storage settings. Our results show that the proposed method captures 50% to 90% of arbitrage profit compared to perfect price forecasts. In particular, our method captures more than 80% of arbitrage profit in three out of the four price zones when considering batteries with more than two-hour duration and realistic degradation cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Online transient analysis plays an increasingly important role in dynamic power grids as the renewable generation continues growing. Traditional numerical methods for transient analysis not only are computationally intensive but also require precise contingency information as input, and therefore, are not suitable for online applications. Existing online transient assessment studies focus on the determination of post-contingency system stability or stability margin. This paper develops a novel graph-learning framework, Deep-learning Neural Representation or DNR, for online prediction, of the time-series trajectories of the system states using initial system responses that can be measured by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The proposed DNR framework consists of two sequential modules: a Network Constructor that captures network dependencies among generators, and a Dynamics Predictor that predicts the system trajectories. The key to improved prediction performance is the introduction of the spatio-temporal message-passing operations into graph neural networks with structural knowledge. Its effectiveness and scalability are validated through comparative studies, demonstrating the prediction performance under different contingency scenarios for systems of different sizes. This framework provides a solution to online predicting post-fault system dynamics based on real-time PMU measurements. Additionally, it can also be applied to facilitate the offline transient simulation without simulating the entire trajectories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unified power flow controller (UPFC) gains growing application in power systems due to its power flow regulation ability. However, there is still a dilemma in the incorporation of UPFC into security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED). The modeling of UPFC involves nonlinear and nonconvex operational constraints, which is difficult to solve efficiently and accurately. Conventional methods adopted Taylor expansion or sensitivity analysis to realize the convexification of UPFC models, which leads to a loop structure and is subject to initial point choice. In this paper, a novel three-terminal injected UPFC model is proposed. In the proposed model, the voltage source variables are eliminated completely. Instead, only power injection variables are introduced to equivalently describe physical characteristics and constraints of UPFC. The nonlinear and nonconvex operational constraints of UPFC are transformed into mixed integer second-order cone form. Moreover, compared with conventional UPFC models, the control characteristic of UPFC is considered in a more accurate and practical manner in the proposed SCED, which helps to prevent potential risks of power flow over-limit under N-1 contingencies. Simulation results show the effectiveness and efficiency of the established solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high penetration of renewables has sparked new oscillatory concerns in hybrid AC/DC grids. Knowledge of the oscillation regarding its source and propagation mechanism, is crucial to system operation. In this respect, the frequency-domain modal analysis (FMA) provides a way (e.g., participation factor) to extract these oscillation properties, and has been widely applied in converter-based AC grids. Compared to AC grids, oscillation properties of hybrid AC/DC grids are much more complex. Such complexity mainly originates from the diversity of oscillation propagation behaviors in hybrid AC/DC grids, where a distinctive local-area oscillation will emerge. Therefore, a dedicated oscillation propagation analysis for hybrid AC/DC grids is desired, which is the main focus of this paper. First, the mechanism of the distinctive local-area oscillation is analyzed considering AC/DC coupled dynamics of converters. Then, a systematic method for the oscillation propagation analysis is presented, where indices for characterizing the local-area oscillation and its impact area are established. Finally, some propagation properties are discussed, by which a strategy for the online oscillation source locating is designed. Case studies are carried out in a typical hybrid AC/DC grid to validate the propagation analysis in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the diversity of power consumption patterns, the false positive rate (FPR) of data-driven electricity theft detection (ETD) methods is too high to meet practical needs, which severely restricts the engineering application of data-based methods. To reduce FPR of ETD methods based on advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), a deep neural network with low FPR (LFPR-DNN) is proposed in this paper. First, a deep model is constructed based on one-dimensional convolution and residual network, which can automatically extract features from consumption data. Then, a two-stage training scheme is used to train the network. In the first stage, the conventional gradient descent algorithm is used to update the network weights. To minimize the impact of data imbalance on detection performance, focal loss is used. Besides, grid search is used to optimize the hyper-parameters of the model. In the second stage, with FPR as the optimization objective, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to train the network. Finally, the proposed LFPR-DNN is verified by using the open Irish data set. Compared to other state-of-the-art classifiers, LFPR-DNN has the lowest FPR with 0.29% and the highest AUC with 99.42%. The FPR is reduced by an order of magnitude, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel repair rule set (RRS) for scheduling the power system infrastructure repair after the occurrence of extreme events. RRS is made up of multiple repair rules, each of them can be applied in arbitrary post-disaster failure scenarios to rank the repair actions by priority. A learning-to-rank technique called AdaRank is used to train the repair rules by combining the weak learners derived from the dynamic repair scheduling model. Then, RRS is constructed by iteratively clustering the training cases and retraining the repair rule for each cluster. Increasing the number of repair rules within RRS allows it to differentiate various types of failure scenarios, thereby improving its performance. Further combined with multi-label K nearest neighbor (ML-KNN) technique, RRS is able to schedule the repair without the full knowledge of real-time failure information, such as the estimated repair time. The results of case studies on IEEE-118 test systems show that the proposed method has a desirable performance compared to the exact mathematical optimization model. Moreover, it reduces the requirement for failure information while significantly improving the computational efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving the low-carbon transition of power systems requires the coordination of renewable energy generation and other emerging electricity technologies. Their technical indicators are changing rapidly since these technologies are in the initial stages of development. Determining the technical and policy targets for achieving the low-carbon transition is critical for regulators and power system planners. This paper defines this problem as a backcasting problem, whose concept is derived from environmental science research. We introduce it into the power system planning field and innovatively model it as a bi-level optimization problem. According to the characteristics of the backcasting problem, an improved barrier method is proposed to solve it efficiently. The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm are verified through case studies on a modified Garver’s 6-bus system and a realistic Northwest China power system, and they are compared with state-of-the-art solution techniques. The results of the backcasting problem provide a new perspective on the economic impacts of the low-carbon transition and are helpful in energy policy formulation for power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a hybrid data-driven method for fast solutions of preventive security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) of power systems. The proposed method formulates the SCOPF problem as constraints-satisfying training of a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agent, where the action-value function of DRL is augmented by contingency security constraints. In the training process, the proposed method hybridizes the primal-dual deep deterministic policy gradient (PD-DDPG) and the classic SCOPF model. Instead of building reward critic networks and cost critic networks via interacting with the environment (i.e., power flow equations), the actor gradients are approximated by solving KKT conditions of the Lagrangian. Finally, with the formulated sparse Jacobians of constraints and sparse Hessians of Lagrangians, the interior point method is incorporated in PD-DDPG to derive the parameters updating rule of the DRL agent. Numerical tests are carried out on a modified IEEE 57-bus system and a modified IEEE 300-bus system for critical contingencies. The results show that the well-trained DRL agent can rapidly (real-time) obtain high-quality SCOPF solutions that satisfy the security constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a wind farm, the interactions between turbines caused by wakes can significantly reduce the power output of the wind farm. Cooperative control among the turbines has the potential to improve the power output. However, existing centralized power optimization methods are computationally expensive and does not scale well for large wind farms, limiting their practical use in real-time control for time-varying wind conditions and turbine configuration (with adding or maintaining of turbines). To address this problem, this paper proposes a fully distributed power optimization method for wind farms using alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The proposed method allows the wind farm power output to be optimized in fully distributed manner with turbine-to-turbine message passing over a mesh network, guarantees the implemented control actions satisfy the control constraints of all turbines, and provably converges to a stationary point of the wind farm power optimization problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly reduce the computation time with hardly sacrificing the power gain compared with centralized method and thus is computationally efficient for real-time power optimization of large wind farms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The loss of small signal stability under parameter variation (e.g., fluctuation of loads and wind powers) can be ascribed to local bifurcations, i.e., saddle-node, Hopf, singularity-induced, and limit-induced bifurcations. Classic bifurcation calculation methods like the direct method and continuation method can only provide a bifurcation point or two-parameter bifurcation curve. Based on Galerkin method and the implicit function theorem, this paper proposes accurate polynomial approximations of bifurcation hypersurfaces in the multi-dimensional parameter space of interest. The proposed method can ensure high accuracy in this parameter space, and thus is preferable to the existing Taylor expansion-based local approximation method, given the intrinsic large-variation characteristic of wind powers. Acquired bifurcation hypersurfaces are immediately used to construct the small signal stability region of the continuous system, and then compute the stability margin for the operating point subjected to uncertainty of wind generation. Besides, the validity scope of the proposed method is analyzed, and the handling of limit-triggered equation switching as well as its computational difficulty is discussed. Computational results on the two-parameter 11-bus two-area and six-parameter IEEE 145-bus test systems validate the high accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) increase the magnitude of the electric field on the Earth’s surface (E-field) and drive geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) along the transmission lines in electric grids. These additional currents can pose severe risks, such as current distortions, transformer saturation and increased reactive power losses, each of which can lead to system unreliability. Several mitigation actions (e.g., changing grid topology) exist that can reduce the harmful GIC effects on the grids. Making such decisions can be challenging, however, because the magnitude and direction of the E-field are uncertain and non-stationary. In this paper, we model uncertain E-fields using the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach that determines optimal transmission grid operations such that the worst-case expectation of the system cost is minimized. We also capture the effect of GICs on the nonlinear AC power flow equations. For solution approaches, we develop an accelerated column-and-constraint generation (CCG) algorithm by exploiting a special structure of the support set of uncertain parameters representing the E-field. Extensive numerical experiments based on “epri-21” and “uiuc-150” systems, designed for GMD studies, demonstrate (i) the computational performance of the accelerated CCG algorithm, (ii) the superior performance of distributionally robust grid operations that satisfy nonlinear, nonconvex AC power flow equations and GIC constraints, in comparison with standard stochastic programming-based methods during the out-of-sample testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of the dynamic properties of a photovoltaic generator (PVG) on the stability of a grid-connected current-source inverter (CSI)-based photovoltaic system and presents a simple yet effective active compensator to ensure system stability. A detailed equivalent model of the PVG that considers the dynamic resistance, diffusion capacitance, series inductance, and dc cable resistance and inductance is used, and the effects of these parameters are assessed. It has been found that when the PVG operates in the constant-current region (CCR), the phase margin becomes negative in the control-to-input dynamics, which alters the stability of the dc-link current control. The change in the system dynamics when the operating point of the PVG shifts from the constant-voltage region (CVR) to CCR is verified through a detailed small-signal state-space model of the complete system. Furthermore, an active compensator is proposed to ensure stable dc-link current control operation at all operating points of the PVG. The influence of different control parameters on the integrated system dynamics is examined to determine the range of the control parameters required for stable operation. The performance of the proposed system under utility-grid fault, grid voltage parameter variation, weak grid, and changes in insolation level is also evaluated. Detailed nonlinear time-domain simulation results, using a typical utility-scale CSI-based PV system, validate the analytical results and the effectiveness of the proposed active stabilization under different operating conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper provides a novel framework to study the accuracy and stability of numerical integration schemes when employed for the time domain simulation of power systems. A matrix pencil-based approach is adopted to evaluate the error between the dynamic modes of the power system and the modes of the approximated discrete-time system arising from the application of the numerical method. The proposed approach can provide meaningful insights on how different methods compare to each other when applied to a power system, while being general enough to be systematically utilized for, in principle, any numerical method. The framework is illustrated for a handful of well-known explicit and implicit methods, while simulation results are presented based on the WSCC 9-bus system, as well as on a 1,479-bus dynamic model of the All-Island Irish Transmission System. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High renewable energy penetration increases the electricity seasonal imbalance in the long-term timescale. Power system planning needs to consider the optimal configuration of various flexibility resources and electricity balance in different timescales. The coupling of multiple timescales largely increases the computation complexity of the power system planning problem. Thus, this paper presents an efficient source-grid-storage co-planning model which incorporates a year-round hourly operation simulation. To improve the computation efficiency of the planning model, from the temporal scale, a self-adaptive compact panorama time series (CPTS) model is applied, which greatly reduces the number of variables related to short-term decisions. From the spatial scale, a network-constrained relaxed clustered unit commitment (NC-RCUC) model is introduced, which significantly reduces the number of variables related to unit commitment decisions. Case studies on the modified Garver’s 6-node system and HRP-38 system prove the validation and efficiency of the proposed model (“HRP” stands for high renewable penetration). The studies on the China power grid in 2035 demonstrate the future planning results of generation, transmission and storage in China power systems based on the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transmission system operators (TSOs) in recent years have faced challenges in order to ensure maximum transmission capacity of the system to satisfy market needs, while maintaining operational safety and permissible impact on the environment. A great help in the decision-making process was introduced with the Dynamic Thermal Rating (DTR) – an instrument to monitor and predict the maximal allowed ampacity of the power grid based on weather measurements and forecast. However, the introduction of DTR raises a number of questions related to the accuracy and uncertainty of the results of thermal assessment and the level of acceptable risk and its management. In this paper, we present a solution for estimating DTR uncertainty, appropriate for operational use at TSOs. With the help of conductor surface temperature measurements, weather measurements and predicted weather data, we also estimate the error of the weather forecast and the DTR itself. Following the results of the data analyses, we build an operative solution for estimating the ampacity uncertainty based on Monte Carlo random simulations and integrate it into the operational environment of ELES – the operator of the Slovenian electric power transmission network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wide variety of inverter control settings for solar photovoltaics (PV) causes the accurate knowledge of these settings to be difficult to obtain in practice. This paper addresses the problem of determining inverter reactive power control settings from net load advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. The estimation is first cast as fitting parameterized control curves. We argue for an intuitive and practical approach to preprocess the AMI data, which exposes the setting to be extracted. We then develop a more general approach with a data-driven reactive power disaggregation algorithm, reframing the problem as a maximum likelihood estimation for the native load reactive power. These methods form the first approach for reconstructing reactive power control settings of solar PV inverters from net load data. The constrained curve fitting algorithm is tested on 701 loads with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV systems with identical control settings. The settings are accurately reconstructed with mean absolute percentage errors between 0.425% and 2.870%. The disaggregation-based approach is then tested on 451 loads with variable BTM PV control settings. Different configurations of this algorithm reconstruct the PV inverter reactive power timeseries with root mean squared errors between 0.173 and 0.198 kVAR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel stochastic robust real-time power dispatch model considering wind uncertainty. In this dispatch model that incorporates automatic power generation control, system constraints are constructed with affinely adjustable robust optimization to enhance the system security, while the objective concerning the expected value of generation cost is optimized to improve the cost efficiency. The optimized objective is consistent with stochastic optimization, while the formulation for the objective is different. A Nataf conversion-based three-point estimate (NC-TPE) is adopted, which uses an approximating function to formulate the expected generation cost with deterministic estimate points. Compared to traditional stochastic sampling methods, the deterministic assessment method NC-TPE achieves an accurate formulation with more stable and efficient computation performance. The dispatch model is derived as a problem with nonconvex objective and bilinear constraints using the dual theory. To address the highly nonconvex problem, the objective and bilinear constraints are first converted to difference-of-convexity functions, and then a tailored difference-of-convexity optimization is employed to convexify the nonconvex functions, such that the original problem can be solved with an iterative quadratically constrained program. Numerical simulations demonstrate the economic superiority and robustness of the proposed model, as well as the effectiveness of the convexified solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a new technique for modal decomposition based solely on measurements to test systems and demonstrates the technique's capability for partitioning a power network, which determines the points of separation in an islanding strategy. The mathematical technique is called the Koopman mode analysis (KMA) and stems from a spectral analysis of the so-called Koopman operator. Here, KMA is numerically approximated by applying an Arnoldi-like algorithm recently first applied to power system dynamics. In this paper we propose a practical data-driven algorithm incorporating KMA for network partitioning. Comparisons are made with two techniques previously applied for the network partitioning: spectral graph theory which is based on the eigenstructure of the graph Laplacian, and slow-coherency which identifies coherent groups of generators for a specified number of low-frequency modes. The partitioning results share common features with results obtained with graph theory and slow-coherency-based techniques. The suggested partitioning method is evaluated with two test systems, and similarities between Koopman modes and Laplacian eigenvectors are showed numerically and elaborated theoretically. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An analytical approach and a control strategy are proposed in Part I of this two-part paper for leveraging the aggregate demand of a population of thermostatically-controlled loads (TCLs) to deliver contingency-type reserve capacity. Further, a metric is introduced to quantify the TCL users' comfort satisfaction in response to a control signal. In Part II, we address the validation of the concepts put forth in the first part of the paper. To do so, we develop an extensive set of case studies based upon a population of 10\thinspace000 electric water heaters (EWH). Here, a physically-based model is first derived for the calculation of EWHs on-time statistics. The model is then extended to calculate the probability of EWH users' comfort satisfaction. The analytical approach and control strategy presented in Part I are validated using the EWH model against Monte Carlo simulations. Further, the trade-off between demand response capacity and EWH users' comfort satisfaction is investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates a procedure of coordinated tuning of power system decentralized damping controllers based on reduced-order model (ROM). In the paper, the cross-gramian technique is applied to obtain an equivalent ROM for power systems. Once the controllers' locations are selected appropriately, the critical modes are approximated well in the reduced model. The controllers are designed on ROM using search algorithm and then tested on the unreduced system to demonstrate their availability. The benefit of adopting ROM is to decrease the complexity of objective function computation. The proposed method is tested on power systems with 4-machine and 156-machine to validate its efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a framework for online monitoring of subsynchronous oscillations using ambient sensor data from high speed sampling devices such as digital fault recorders (DFRs). Ambient data is continuously available in the form of routine system responses to random load fluctuations. This paper shows the usefulness of ambient data for tracking the frequency, damping ratio and mode shape of torsional modes related to subsynchronous resonance (SSR). Frequency domain decomposition (FDD) and recursive least square (RLS) algorithms are tested for ambient monitoring of SSR modes. IEEE second SSR benchmark model is used as the study system. Nonlinear and linearized equations of this system are analyzed for testing the performance of measurement based methods and to compare their results with respective linearized system modes. It is shown that both electrical and mechanical signals can be used for the SSR monitoring while the torsional modes are more observable in mechanical signals such as generator speeds. In addition to estimating the frequency and damping ratio, torsional mode shapes can be identified by implementing FDD as a multi-dimensional method on the speeds of the masses of the turbine shaft. The algorithms are tested on an archived real system data set from a DFR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior research has shown that autocorrelation and variance in voltage measurements tend to increase as power systems approach instability. This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which these statistical indicators provide reliable early warning of instability in power systems. First, the paper derives and validates a semi-analytical method for quickly calculating the expected variance and autocorrelation of all voltages and currents in an arbitrary power system model. Building on this approach, the paper describes the conditions under which filtering can be used to detect these signs in the presence of measurement noise. Finally, several experiments show which types of measurements are good indicators of proximity to instability for particular types of state changes. For example, increased variance in voltages can reliably indicate both proximity to a bifurcation and the location of increased stress. On the other hand, growth of autocorrelation in certain line currents is related less to a specific location of stress but, rather, is a reliable indicator of stress occurring somewhere in the system; in particular, it would be a clear indicator of approaching instability when many nodes in an area are under stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the design of the ERCOT modeling extensions to the IEC 61968/70 standards to enable Common Information Model (CIM) schema support of dynamic ratings methodologies. Implementation of dynamic ratings was driven by current economic and environmental constraints placed on the construction of additional electrical transmission infrastructure, thus creating a need to operate the existing equipment closer to its physical limitations. In order to effectively utilize these dynamic limits, the necessary data constructs must be modeled, so ERCOT extended the CIM representation of the balanced three-phase power system model used to operate its various grid functions, in order to support the modeling and use of dynamic ratings in its operational real-time and congestion hedging market models. This paper also explains how the process utilized in the identification and extension of the CIM model for this purpose is flexible enough for generic application within the power industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a circuit breaker (CB) aging failure model based on condition monitoring. This model is inserted into a basic CB Markov model and applied in substation reliability assessment. The proposed model can accurately incorporate the wearing status and aging process of CBs. The results from applying the proposed method to a utility substation configuration demonstrate that ignoring aging failures of CBs can lead to significant underestimation of substation unreliability. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper proposes a novel contribution factor (CF) approach to predict diversified daily peak load of low voltage (LV) substations. The CF for each LV template developed in part I of the paper is determined by a novel method—clusterwise weighted constrained regression (CWCR). It takes into account the contribution from different customer classes to substation peaks, respecting the natural difference in time and magnitude between LV substation peaks and the variance within the templates. In CWCR, intercept and coefficients are constrained to ensure that the resultant coefficients do not lead to reverse load flow and can respect zero-load substations. Cross validation is developed to validate the stability of the proposed method and prevent over fitting. The proposed method shows significant improvement in the accuracy of peak estimation over the current status quo across 800 substations of different mixes of domestic, industrial and commercial (I&C) customers. The work in the two parts of the paper is particularly useful for understanding the capabilities of LV networks to accommodate the increasing penetration of low carbon technologies without large-scale monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

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A semi-analytical formulation is presented in this paper for the probability computation of branch current in multiphase systems. The developed formula is derived based on the linear power flow model in rectangular coordinates. The system uncertainty injections can be renewable energy resources or loads and are modeled using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The developed formula can be used to compute the line current violation probability as well as integrate into optimal power flow problem as chance-constraint relaxation. The proposed formula is first compared with the Matlab embedded numerical integration function to show its performance. Besides, the semi-analytical formula is validated and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method using the IEEE 123-bus system, EPRI Ckt5, and Ckt7 systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Service restoration is one of the critical functions to enable the future self-healing distribution system. To restore the distribution system in a timely and reliable manner, the realistic system operating conditions need to be accurately characterized. In this paper, two main factors that have great impacts on distribution system restoration (DSR) in practice are investigated. First, cold load pickup (CLPU), generally caused by thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), is a common phenomenon after an outage and shaped by the outage duration. However, the time-dependent behaviors of CLPU are rarely considered in literature. In this paper, the operating state evolution of TCLs after an outage is analyzed to characterize time-dependent CLPU. And the time-dependent CLPU is analytically embedded in DSR to accurately represent the actual behaviors of the restored loads. Second, it is difficult to predict loads that fluctuate during DSR due to the lack of real-time measurement data. Accordingly, a robust DSR based on the information gap decision theory (IGDT) is proposed to address this challenge, fully considering the uncertainty of CLPU. The proposed models are tested in IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders. Simulation results demonstrate that the time-dependent CLPU model and the uncertainty modeling of CLPU can accurately capture the actual behaviors of loads with TCLs after an outage, which greatly improves DSR decisions in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comprehensive scheduling framework for residential demand response (DR) programs considering both the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. In the first stage, residential customers determine the operating status of their responsive devices such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and electric water heaters (EWHs), while the distribution system operator (DSO) computes the amount of electricity to be purchased in the day-ahead electricity market. In the second stage, the DSO purchases insufficient (or sells surplus) electricity in the real-time electricity market to maintain the supply-demand balance. Due to its computational complexity and data privacy issues, the proposed model cannot be directly solved in a centralized manner, especially with a large number of uncertain scenarios. Therefore, this paper proposes a combination of stochastic programming (SP) and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm, called SP-ADMM, to decompose the original model and then solve each sub-problem in a distributed manner while considering multiple uncertain scenarios. The simulation study is performed on the IEEE 33-bus system including 121 residential houses. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for large-scale residential DR applications under weather and consumer uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the characteristics of subsynchronous oscillation (SSO) power propagation in power systems with a large-scale wind farm integration. Based on the instantaneous power theory, a novel definition of SSO power is proposed to characterize its propagation. The SSO power contains both DC power components and AC power components. Utilizing SSO power, SSO propagation is quantitatively studied in single oscillation source systems, and further studied in multiple oscillation sources systems. Theoretical analysis reveals that in addition to the recognized impact of line impedance, power flow also affects SSO power propagation significantly. Hence, propagation impact factor is proposed for the determination of the dominant influencing element. To reveal SSO power propagation paths in a network, shunt coefficients of DC power components and AC power components are expressed respectively. Test cases under different operating conditions and a practical case are carried out to demonstrate analysis and conclusions in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wide implementation of information and communication technologies (ICT) cause power system operations exposed to cyber-attacks. Meanwhile, the tendency of integrated multi energy vectors has worsened this issue with multiple energy coupled. This paper proposes a two-stage risk-averse mitigation strategy for water-energy systems (WESs), incorporating power, natural gas and water systems against false data injection attacks (FDIA) under water-energy nexus. The FDIA on individual sub-systems is modelled through hampering false data integrity to the systems. An innovative two-stage risk-averse distributionally robust optimization (RA-DRO) is proposed to mitigate uneconomic operation and provides a coordinated optimal load shedding scheme for the nexus system security. A coherent risk measure, Conditional Value-at-Risk is incorporated into the RA-DRO to model risk. A Benders decomposition method is used to solve the original NP-hard RA-DRO problem. Case studies are demonstrated on a WES under water-energy nexus and results show that the effectiveness of the method to mitigate risks from potential FDIA and renewable uncertainties. This research provides WES operators an economic system operation tool by optimally coordinating energy infrastructures and implementing reasonable load shedding to enhance cybersecurity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convex hull pricing has been introduced recently to increase transparency and reduce uplift payments for the U.S. wholesale markets. A convex primal formulation approach is one of the most efficient methods to obtain a high-quality convex hull price. Even though significant progress has been made, the co-optimization of energy and ancillary services is much more challenging due to the discrete nature in formulating ancillary services, for example, the regulating reserve commitment variables, which are binary introduced by some Independent System Operators (ISOs), such as Midcontinent ISO (MISO), to capture the special characteristics of certain generators, such as combined-cycle units. In this paper, we propose convex primal formulations for convex hull pricing considering regulating, spinning, and online/offline-supplemental reserves, in which the regulating reserve commitment variables are considered. Accordingly, we can solve a linear program, instead of a mixed-integer program, which is much harder to solve, to derive the minimum uplift payments and exact convex hull price for the case without general ramping constraints. For the case with general ramping constraints, an upper bound of the minimum uplift payment can also be derived. The final computational experiments on MISO cases verify the effectiveness of our approach in solution quality and computational time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent power systems literature has witnessed an intensified interest in state estimation methods that can handle a vast array of measurements from large-scale networks while maintaining performance that is commensurate with real-time requirements. When measurements are from the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), an elegant formulation of the weighted least squares problem can be cast in complex variables and solved via the Gauss-Newton (GN) method. This paper presents a Perturbed Gauss-Newton (PGN) method in complex variables that is suitable for real-time tracking of the network's state vector. The proposed PGN method is built around an entirely linear measurement model expressed in function of the complex phasor voltages, and its iterative solution scheme requires one factorization of the coefficient matrix followed by repeated forward/backward substitutions. The complex variable PGN method for state estimation can be therefore seen as the counterpart of the classical implicit bus impedance method for power flow. The paper reports numerical results of the PGN method on large-scale transmission networks having up to 9241 nodes and contrasts the proposed method with the equality constrained GN method in complex variables and a recent two-stage estimator also operating in the complex domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a multi-period active distribution network planning (ADNP) with distributed generation (DG). The objective of the proposed ADNP is to minimize the total planning cost, subject to both investment and operation constraints. The paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic optimization model to address DG uncertainties over several periods, in which the decisions are made sequentially by only using the present-stage information. A nested decomposition method is proposed which applies the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming (SDDIP) method to address computational intractabilities of the proposed ADNP approach. The presented numerical results and discussions on a 33-bus distribution system and a large-scale 906-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed ADNP method and its solution method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the growing penetration of power electronic converters in power systems, the issue of reliability becomes more critical than ever before. This paper proposes a hierarchical reliability framework to evaluate the electric power system reliability from the power electronic converter level to the overall system level. On the converter level, the reliability model of a power electronic converter is developed based on the power electronic devices it is composed of, for which various hourly based input profiles and converter topologies are considered. On the system level, reliability metrics such as expected energy not served (EENS) and loss of load expectation (LOLE) are estimated through a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Machine learning regression models, such as support vector regression (SVR), and random forests (RF) are implemented to bridge the nonlinear reliability relationship between two levels. The proposed framework is demonstrated through the modified IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) 24-bus network. Numerical results show power converter reliability should be considered as an important factor when evaluating overall system reliability performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern photovoltaic inverter has an active power-reactive power (Watt-VAr) control curve that is part of its management modes. The Watt-VAr curve, whose settings can be remotely modified, regulates the inverter reactive power output in function of its active power. This paper proposes the optimization of inverter segregated linear decision rules (LDRs), starting from the legacy Volt-VAr optimization in distribution networks. As opposed to classical LDRs that are interfaced with Volt-VAr optimization, the segregated LDRs are piecewise linear continuous curves that directly satisfy the reactive power capability of inverters, and their multiple segments can capture the correlation in solar power variability. The paper presents linear programming formulations for optimizing the segregated linear decision rules using stochastic optimization, robust optimization, and distributionally robust optimization. The optimization schemes are demonstrated on both meshed and radial networks, and their performance is validated via Monte-Carlo simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]