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In view of the uncertainty and intermittency of wind power, this paper proposes an optimal economical dispatch (ED) model and develops a method to estimate risk and manage hybrid power systems (traditional + wind~power~systems) for the short-term (24 h) operations. The model and the method have taken into account the large wind power penetration and the wind variability. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) refid="ref1"/ algorithm with constraints is applied to solve the ED problem. Value at risk (VaR) refid="ref2"/ and integrated risk management (IRM) refid="ref3"/ are used separately to assess the risk, so that an optimal tradeoff between the profit and risk is made for the system operations. The model and the method are tested on the standard IEEE 30-bus power system and network in Shanghai. The validity of the model and the method has been approved. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

During the last decade, neural networks have emerged as one of the most powerful and accurate nonlinear models for load forecasting. However, using neural networks requires users to have in-depth knowledge to determine the model structure and parameters, which limits their wide application. To overcome this weakness, this paper proposes an integrated approach which combines a self-organizing fuzzy neural network (SOFNN) learning method with a bilevel optimization method. SOFNNs can automatically determine both the model structure and parameters, while the bilevel optimization method automatically selects the best pre-training parameters to ensure that the best fuzzy neural networks be identified. Therefore, the proposed approach is able to automatically identify the best fuzzy neural network for a given forecasting task and is much easier to use in practice. The proposed approach is tested on real-load data from the Southern Power Network of Hebei Province, China, and on the EUNITE competition data. Results show the proposed approach improves existing load forecasting models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three-phase unbalance could have significant impacts on the secure and economic operation of a low-voltage distribution system. With the deployment of smart meters and the emergence of phase switch devices (PSDs), more efficient schemes for mitigating three-phase unbalance are expected by utilizing numerous measurement data and the installed PSDs in low-voltage areas. Therefore, a bi-level optimal phase switch device placement model for mitigating three-phase unbalance is proposed in this work. In the upper-level model, the PSD placement strategy is optimized by minimizing the total costs of PSD installation and operation costs of low-voltage areas determined in the lower-level model. In the lower-level model, the operation costs of low-voltage areas for typical days are minimized based on the PSDs and their locations determined in the upper-level model. The proposed bi-level model is tested by an actual low-voltage area of Zhejiang province, China, and the effectiveness of the optimal PSD placement model for reducing the total investment and operation costs of the low-voltage area demonstrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]