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Electricity price forecasting is a difficult yet essential task for market participants in a deregulated electricity market. Rather than forecasting the value, market participants are sometimes more interested in forecasting the prediction interval of the electricity price. Forecasting the prediction interval is essential for estimating the uncertainty involved in the price and thus is highly useful for making generation bidding strategies and investment decisions. In this paper, a novel data mining-based approach is proposed to achieve two major objectives: 1) to accurately forecast the value of the electricity price series, which is widely accepted as a nonlinear time series; 2) to accurately estimate the prediction interval of the electricity price series. In the proposed approach, support vector machine (SVM) is employed to forecast the value of the price. To forecast the prediction interval, we construct a statistical model by introducing a heteroscedastic variance equation for the SVM. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to estimate model parameters. Results from the case studies on real-world price data prove that the proposed method is highly effective compared with existing methods such as GARCH models. Index Terms--Data mining, electricity market price forecasting, interval forecasting, support vector machine.

The reconstruction of power industries has brought fundamental changes to both power system operation and planning. This paper presents a new planning method using a multi-objective optimization (MOOP) technique, as well as human knowledge, to expand the transmission network in open-access schemes. The method starts with a candidate pool of feasible expansion plans. Consequent selection of the best candidates is carried out through a MOOP approach, of which multiple objectives are tackled simultaneously, aiming at integrating the market operation and planning as one unified process in context of a deregulated system. Human knowledge has been applied in both stages to ensure the selection with practical engineering and management concerns. The expansion plan from MOOP is assessed by reliability criteria before it is finalized. The proposed method has been tested with the IEEE 14-bus system, and relevant analyses and discussions have been presented. Index Terms--Electricity market, goal programming, multi-objective optimization, transmission planning.

In this paper, we study the optimal location planning of renewable distributed generation (RDG) units by taking into account the random uncertainties of renewable generation and load demand. In presence of the random uncertainties, location planning problem is naturally a two-stage stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming problem, which is hard to solve efficiently. Instead of using traditional sampling methods or robust optimization methods, we propose a novel analytical approach in this paper to solve the problem efficiently and optimally. In particular, analytical expressions are derived for efficiently evaluating the performance of a candidate RDG placement decision. In this way, the stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming problem is equivalently transformed into a deterministic integer problem, which can be solved efficiently using off-the-shelf tools. Numerical results show that the optimal RDG placement can save up to $4.2\%$ of the long-term average cost and $80.59\%$ of the line losses on the IEEE 13-bus test feeder. In addition, our proposed approach effectively reduces the computational time by $99.51\%$ on the IEEE 123 node test feeder compared with other traditional sampling-based metaheuristic approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]