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In power system analysis, probabilistic load flow (PLF) accounts for uncertainties stemming from power entities such as renewable generation systems and consumer demands. In this paper, we present a Gaussian Process (GP) emulator for enabling data-driven PLF on practical distribution networks (DNs) without requiring knowledge of underlying system parameters. The main novelty of our proposal lies in the kernel design process. An ideal kernel allows for greater efficiency during training and inferencing stages without being subject to common issues that include overfitting to the training dataset and poor accuracies. In this proposal, the kernel selection process is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem. This is a very difficult problem to solve as it is composed of discrete variables and non-convex constraints. We overcome these issues by proposing a best-response strategy refinement process to identify an efficient kernel configuration in an iterative manner. The convergence properties of this iterative algorithm and the approximating capabilities of the resulting GP emulator are established using potential game theoretic constructs, universal approximation theorem and representer theorem. The performance of the proposed emulator is then showcased via comprehensive simulations conducted on practical DNs and comparisons with the state-of-the-art. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the advent of the advanced metering infrastructure, electricity usage data is being continuously generated at large volumes by smart meters vastly deployed across the modern power grid. Electric power utility companies and third party entities such as smart home management solution providers gain significant insights into these datasets via machine learning (ML) models. These are then utilized to perform active/passive power demand management that fosters economical and sustainable electricity usage. Although ML models are powerful, these remain vulnerable to adversarial attacks. A novel stealthy black-box attack construction model is proposed that targets deep learning models utilized to perform non-intrusive load monitoring based on smart meter data. These attacks are practical as there is no assumption of the knowledge of training data, internal parameters, and architecture of the targeted ML model. The profound impact of the proposed stealthy attack constructions on energy analytics and decision-making processes is shown through comprehensive theoretical, practical, and comparative analysis. This work sheds light on vulnerabilities of ML models in the smart grid context and provides valuable insights for securely accommodating increasing prevalence of artificial intelligence in the modern power grid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today’s electricity grid is rapidly evolving to become highly connected and automated. These advancements have been mainly attributed to the ubiquitous communication/computational capabilities in the grid and the Internet of Things paradigm that is steadily permeating modern society. Another trend is the recent resurgence of machine learning which is especially timely for smart grid applications. However, a major deterrent in effectively utilizing machine learning algorithms is the lack of labelled training data. We overcome this issue in the specific context of smart meter data by proposing a flexible framework for generating synthetic labelled load (e.g., appliance) patterns and usage habits via a non-intrusive novel data-driven approach. We leverage on recent developments in generative adversarial networks (GAN) and kernel density estimators (KDE) to eliminate model-based assumptions that otherwise result in biases. The ensuing synthetic datasets resemble real datasets and lend to rich and diverse training/testing platforms for developing effective machine learning algorithms pertaining to consumer-side energy applications. Theoretical and practical studies presented in this paper highlight the viability and superior performance of the proposed framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolving landscape of the electricity sector along with increasing environmental concerns necessitate modern power grids to be more efficient, sustainable, and adaptive. Microgrids are typically composed of distributed energy sources which have great potential for enabling energy independence, sustainability, and flexibility. However, practical difficulties that deter the widespread deployment of microgrids include the unpredictability of local generation sources (e.g., renewables) and the lack of inertia that is naturally present in systems containing bulk synchronous plants. In this paper, we propose a near real-time microgrid coordination algorithm that allows actuating components to adapt to changing system conditions. We account for the electrical dependencies and limits in microgrid systems by constructing voltage/current balance relations in the $dq0$ frame and applying strategic decompositions to invoke the Schur’s complement and S-procedure that allow for zero duality gap. We highlight the convergence, feasibility, and scalability features of the proposed decentralized algorithm via theoretical and comparative practical simulation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proliferation of high powered electric devices is a driving force in the rising of peak power demand from electric power utilities. One way to accommodate these rising consumption patterns involves the deployment of high capacity dispatchable, but largely unsustainable peak generation systems. To avert these extravagant costs and the likelihood of grid overload, demand response (DR) strategies can be employed to curtail overall consumption, thus reducing peak patterns. In this paper, we propose a distributed real-time DR approach. The proposed method fosters seamless cooperation between DR participants for rapid convergence to expected aggregate load curtailment, while accounting for individual consumer satisfaction needs. We assess this paper through theoretical analysis based on population game theory and simulations to demonstrate its inherent flexibility, scalability, and resilience making it attractive for practical widespread deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Information and communication infrastructure will be extensively deployed to monitor and control electric power delivery components of today’s power grid. While these cyber elements enhance a utility’s ability to maintain physical stability, if a subset are compromised by adversaries, disruption may occur. In this paper, a novel framework based on the principles of differential games is proposed that demonstrates stealthy worst-case strategies for attackers to disrupt transient stability by leveraging control over distributed energy resources. We demonstrate that if the electric power utility is able to identify uncompromised components, countermeasures can exist that effectively reduce the impact of attack for a fixed time interval. Based on our results, we develop insights to construct safety margin recommendations for cyber-physical smart grid actuation elements that promote system resilience during a cyber attack. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Distributed generators (DGs) are being widely deployed in today’s power grid. These energy sources are highly variable posing practical challenges for deployment and grid management. In this paper, a novel scalable distributed power dispatch strategy is proposed to effectively manage DGs at the distribution substation level, capitalizing on the recent push to cyber-enable power grid operations. We demonstrate how the inherent separability of the power dispatch problem allows the use of dual decomposition that enables every participating DG to locally compute its dispatch strategy based on simple broadcast data by the utility. Results and comparisons indicate that the DGs are able to rapidly converge to an optimal economical dispatch vector with significantly less concentrated computational effort and communication overhead, promoting security and privacy. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]