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During recent decades, tree mortality and dieback have been reported in forest ecosystems across global biomes. Although numerous forest species, including those of the genus Quercus, have been affected by hotter and drier conditions in the Mediterranean Basin during the last decades, there is scarce information regarding the interactive role of past management and climate across large areas of south-western Europe. Here, we examined the influence of several climatic factors (mean annual temperature, annual precipitation) over the last 3 decades, latitude, land management and site conditions on the cork oak (Quercus suber L.) population dynamics given their high ecological and economic relevance. We sampled 20 plots across contrasting environmental conditions in SW Iberian Peninsula with different land property (public vs. private) to characterize cork oak tree size, stand density, mortality ratio and regeneration. We observed widespread effects of latitude (8.9% at northern vs. 15.6% at southern plots) and land property (6.9% in private properties vs. 13.9% in public ones) on tree mortality. Tree density and basal area differed with latitude, with higher values (307.2 trees ha-1 and 38.4 m2 ha-1, respectively) at northern populations. In addition, the more intense cork-focused productive management resulted in higher tree sizes in private (mean DBH = 47.3 cm) than in public (mean DBH = 37.8 cm) plots. Tree regeneration was higher in northern forests (94.9 ± 25.2 vs. 26.0 ± 6.1 saplings ha-1 for the southern location), being this difference more pronounced in public plots. These findings highlight the importance of sustainable forest management in public and private forests for further reduction of mortality processes, as well as for enhancing the regeneration aimed to the conservation of cork oak under forecasted drier conditions of these economically invaluable Mediterranean forests.

We used Species Distribution Modeling to predict the probability of Iberian pine (Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii [Dunal] Franco) occurrences in southern Spain in response to environmental variables and to forecast the effects of climate change on their predicted geographical distribution. The ensemble modeling approach “biomod2” was used, together with present Iberian pine data, to predict the current potential distribution based on bioclimatic explanatory variables (200 m resolution) and to forecast future suitability by studying three periods (2040, 2070, and 2100), considering the Global Circulation Models BCM2, CNCM3, and ECHAM5, and the regional model EGMAM, for different scenarios (SRAB1, SRA2, SRB1). Model evaluation was performed using Kappa, True Skills Statistic (TSS), and Area Under the Curve (AUC) values. The biomod2 approach highlighted the average number of days with a minimum temperature equal to or below 0°C, annual precipitation, and aridity index as the most important variables to describe the P. nigra occurrence probability. Model performances were generally satisfactory and the highest AUC values and high stability of the results were given by GAM and GLM, but MaxEnt and the SRE model were scarcely accurate according to all our statistics. The ensemble Species Distribution Modeling of P. nigra in Andalusia predicted the highest probability of species occurrence in the eastern areas, Sierra de Cazorla being the area with the highest occurrence of P. nigra in Andalusia. In the future habitat, the general probability of P. nigra occurrence in Andalusia will decrease widely; the species is expected to lose habitat suitability at moderate altitudes and its occurrence probability will have decreased by nearly 70% on average by 2100, affected by the selected scenario. Populations in Sierra de Cazorla are those most suitable for P. nigra growth, even under the most pessimistic scenarios. It is likely that the natural southern populations of P. nigra will be very sensitive to changes in climate.

We explored the effects of tree-fall gaps caused by Heterobasidion annosum-induced tree death on the regeneration of the relict Abies pinsapo in southern Spain. We analyzed the structure and regeneration of A. pinsapo in 44 circular closed-canopy plots and 11 gaps (mean size 75 m2) located in H. annosum infection foci. We measured adult density, basal area, and height of all tree species with a diameter at breast height greater than 7.5 cm and quantified regeneration abundance. Diameter structures were analyzed using Weibull functions. A. pinsapo comprised 49-81% of total adult tree density (358-1418 trees ha-1) and total basal area (15.70-39.22 m2 ha-1). Density of A. pinsapo juveniles ranged from 129 to 416 individuals ha-1, while that of juveniles of other tree species such as Quercus ilex was much lower. A. pinsapo saplings and seedlings were more abundant within gaps than in closed-canopy sites. A. pinsapo regeneration was related to the tree species composition of the stands adjacent to gaps. The main potential species replacing A. pinsapo in H. annosum-induced gaps were, in decreasing order of importance, Quercus ilex, Q. faginea, and Juniperus oxycedrus. The current stand structure and gap-infilling processes suggest that A. pinsapo regenerates adequately within H. annosum-induced gaps. However, the relative proportion of other coexisting tree species within H. annosum-related gaps will increase substantially over time as compared with closed-canopy areas.