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Highlights • The annual incidence rate of the basal core promoter (BCP) double mutations is 3.8%. • The incidence rate tends to decrease with age and the peak appeared early in the life. • Nucleotide (nt) 1762 is the favoured site of the first mutation. • Viruses with a single mutation at nt 1762 or 1764 are more prone to develop double mutations., Cross-sectional analyses showed that the prevalence of basal core promoter (BCP) double mutations (nt 1762T, 1764A) of hepatitis B virus (HBV) gradually increases with age. We aimed to determine the incidence rate of the mutations over 10 years. Study subjects were selected from the Long An cohort established in 2004, including 59 with HBV with single mutations at nt 1762 or 1764 in the BCP and 342 with wild type BCP sequences at baseline. Their serum samples for analysis were obtained at the 3rd and 10th annual visits, respectively. The results showed that the annual incidence rate of BCP double mutations is 3.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4–6.2) and tends to decrease with age. The peak incidence is in the 30–34 years age-group. The incidence rate in HBeAg positive individuals (5.5%) is significantly higher than in those without HBeAg (3.4%) (P