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Background: The ability to proactively predict the epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) would facilitate efficient public health responses and may help guide patient management. Viral loads of infected people correlate with infectiousness and, therefore, could be used to predict future case rates., Aim: In this systematic review, we determine whether there is a correlation between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load) and epidemiological trends in patients diagnosed with COVID-19, and whether Ct values are predictive of future cases., Methods: A PubMed search was conducted on August 22 2022, based on a search strategy of studies reporting correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Ct values and epidemiological trends., Results: Data from 16 studies were relevant for inclusion. RT-PCR Ct values were measured from national (n = 3), local (n = 7), single-unit (n = 5), or closed single-unit (n = 1) samples. All studies retrospectively examined the correlation between Ct values and epidemiological trends, and seven evaluated their prediction model prospectively. Five studies used the temporal reproduction number (R t ) as the measure of the population/epidemic growth rate. Eight studies reported a prediction time in the negative cross-correlation between Ct values and new daily cases, with seven reporting a prediction time of ~1-3 weeks, and one reporting 33 days., Conclusion: Ct values are negatively correlated with epidemiological trends and may be useful in predicting subsequent peaks in variant waves of COVID-19 and other circulating pathogens., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Introduction: There is an increasing body of evidence surrounding the importance of a T cell-mediated response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and after COVID-19 vaccination. In this internal feasibility study, we evaluated both the total antibody (IgA, IgM, and IgG) and T cell responses in a cohort of COVID-19 convalescents and vaccinated individuals., Methods: Whole blood specimens were collected weekly from 12 subjects at different time points within/after the COVID-19 mRNA vaccination regimen, and from 4 PCR-confirmed convalescent donors to measure durability of humoral and cell-mediated immune response. T cell and antibody responses were evaluated via the QuantiFERON SARS-CoV-2 research use only (QFN SARS-CoV-2) assay which is an interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) and QIAreach Anti-SARS-CoV-2 total (Anti-CoV-2) test, respectively., Results: In a cohort of recently vaccinated individuals, subjects demonstrated robust total antibody and CD4+/CD8+ T cell response to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines when followed for 2 months post-2nd dose. In most individuals, T cell response declined between the 1st and 2nd doses suggesting a need for a booster or the completion of the 2-dose vaccine series. In a group of convalescent donors tested with QFN SARS-CoV-2 and Anti-CoV-2 tests, all patients had an antibody and T cell response up to 1 year after natural infection., Conclusion: This small feasibility study demonstrates that the QFN-SARS-CoV-2 test is able to identify CD4+ and CD8+ T cell-mediated responses in SARS-CoV-2-vaccinated subjects and those recovered from COVID-19, alongside a qualitative antibody response detectable via the QIAreach Anti-CoV2 test., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: The ability to predict likely prognosis and infectiousness for patients with COVID-19 would aid patient management decisions. Diagnosis is usually via real-time PCR, and it is unclear whether the semi-quantitative capability of this method, determining viral load through cycle threshold (Ct) values, can be leveraged., Objectives: We aim to review available knowledge on correlations between SARS-COV-2 Ct values and patient- or healthcare-related outcomes to determine whether Ct values provide useful clinical information., Sources: A PubMed search was conducted on 1 June 2020 based on a search strategy of (Ct value OR viral load) AND SARS-CoV-2. Data were extracted from studies reporting on the presence or absence of an association between Ct values, or viral loads determined via Ct value, and clinical outcomes., Content: Data from 18 studies were relevant for inclusion. One study reported on the correlation between Ct values and mortality and one study reported on the correlation between Ct values and progression to severe disease; both reported a significant association (p < 0.001 and p = 0.008, respectively). Fourteen studies reported on the correlation between Ct value or viral loads determined via Ct value and disease severity, and an association was observed in eight (57%) studies. Studies reporting on the correlation of viral load with biochemical and haematological markers showed an association with at least one marker, including increased lactate dehydrogenase (n = 4), decreased lymphocytes (n = 3) and increased high-sensitivity troponin I (n = 2). Two studies reporting on the correlation with infectivity showed that lower Ct values were associated with higher viral culture positivity., Implications: Data suggest that lower Ct values may be associated with worse outcomes and that Ct values may be useful in predicting the clinical course and prognosis of patients with COVID-19; however, further studies are warranted to confirm clinical value.

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