1. Forecasting the Expansion of Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China Using the MaxEnt Model.
- Author
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Mao, Jianxiang, Meng, Fanhua, Song, Yunzhe, Li, Dongliang, Ji, Qinge, Hong, Yongcong, Lin, Jia, and Cai, Pumo
- Subjects
BACTROCERA ,TEPHRITIDAE ,DIPTERA ,SEASONAL temperature variations ,CITRUS fruit industry - Abstract
Simple Summary: Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) is a significant pest of commercial citrus crops. It is a univoltine and oligophagous species widely distributed in Japan and China. In this study, the potential distribution of the B. tsuneonis population under current and different future climate change scenarios was modeled using MaxEnt software (v. 3.4.1) and optimized using R software (v. 4.3.2). Under current climate conditions, the potentially suitable areas were mainly concentrated in Central, South, and East China. The total area of habitats suitable for this pest was predicted to increase in the future climate scenarios. The centroid of the total suitable habitat for this pest gradually shifted westward and northward. Our findings provide new insights that could aid the monitoring of B. tsuneonis in China. The invasive pest, Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake), has become a significant threat to China's citrus industry. Predicting the area of potentially suitable habitats for B. tsuneonis is essential for optimizing pest control strategies that mitigate its impact on the citrus industry. Here, existing distribution data for B. tsuneonis, as well as current climate data and projections for four future periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were obtained. The distribution of B. tsuneonis under current and different climate change scenarios in China was predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model, ArcGIS, and the ENMeval data package. Model accuracy was assessed using ROC curves, and the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of the pest were identified based on the percent contribution. When the regularization multiplier (RM) was set to 1.5 and the feature combination (FC) was set to LQH, a model with lower complexity was obtained. Under these parameter settings, the mean training AUC was 0.9916, and the mean testing AUC was 0.9854, indicating high predictive performance. The most influential environmental variables limiting the distribution of B. tsuneonis were the Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio18) and Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) (Bio4). Under current climatic conditions, potentially suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis in China covered an area of 215.9 × 10
4 km2 , accounting for 22.49% of the country's land area. Potentially suitable habitat was primarily concentrated in Central China, South China, and East China. However, under future climatic projections, the area of suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis exhibited varying degrees of expansion. Furthermore, the centroid of the total suitable habitat for this pest gradually shifted westward and northward. These findings suggest that B. tsuneonis will spread to northern and western regions of China under future climate changes. The results of our study indicate that climate change will have a major effect on the invasion of B. tsuneonis and have implications for the development of strategies to control the spread of B. tsuneonis in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2024
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