1. Predictive Study on the Occurrence of Wheat Blossom Midges Based on Gene Expression Programming with Support Vector Machines.
- Author
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Li, Yin, Lv, Yang, Guo, Jian, Wang, Yubo, Tian, Youjin, Gao, Hua, and He, Jinrong
- Subjects
PEST control ,AGRICULTURE ,FOOD supply ,SUPPORT vector machines ,PLANT parasites - Abstract
Simple Summary: In this study, we tackled an important issue in modern farming: predicting plant pests and diseases more effectively. Traditional methods are slow and often incorrect. To improve this, we created a new method that combines two advanced techniques, named gene expression programming (GEP) and support vector machines (SVM). Think of it as creating a smart program that can learn from past pest attacks to better predict future ones. We tested our new method with data on wheat pests from Shaanxi Province, recorded from 1933 to 2010. By comparing our method to other traditional ones, we found that ours was more accurate, with a success rate of about 91% in capturing pest attacks. This means our method can help farmers understand and prepare for pest and disease threats more efficiently, saving time and resources. Our work is a step forward in making farming smarter and more prepared for challenges, which is great news for ensuring our food supplies are secure and sustainable. This study addresses the challenges in plant pest and disease prediction within the context of smart agriculture, highlighting the need for efficient data processing techniques. In response to the limitations of existing models, which are characterized by slow training speeds and a low prediction accuracy, we introduce an innovative prediction method that integrates gene expression programming (GEP) with support vector machines (SVM). Our approach, the gene expression programming—support vector machine (GEP-SVM) model, begins with encoding and fitness function determination, progressing through cycles of selection, crossover, mutation, and the application of a convergence criterion. This method uniquely employs individual gene values as parameters for SVM, optimizing them through a grid search technique to refine genetic parameters. We tested this model using historical data on wheat blossom midges in Shaanxi Province, spanning from 1933 to 2010, and compared its performance against traditional methods, such as GEP, SVM, naive Bayes, K-nearest neighbor, and BP neural networks. Our findings reveal that the GEP-SVM model achieves a leading back-generation accuracy rate of 90.83%, demonstrating superior generalization and fitting capabilities. These results not only enhance the computational efficiency of pest and disease prediction in agriculture but also provide a scientific foundation for future predictive endeavors, contributing significantly to the optimization of agricultural production strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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