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In this paper, an SIRS model with age structure is proposed for recurrent infectious diseases by incorporating infectious delay and temporary immunity delay. Analysis shows that the disease will eventually disappear when the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 < 1. No matter how the infection delay τ 1 changes, as long as the temporary immunity loss delay τ 2 = 0 , the disease transmission will only be endemic and there will be no periodic oscillations when ℛ 0 > 1. Moreover, the stability and Hopf bifurcation will appear as τ 2 increases from zero. It indicates that the duration of temporary immunity can affect the form of disease transmission within the population. Our numerical simulations verified the correctness of the theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vector-borne disease malaria is transmitted to humans by arthropod vectors (mosquitoes) and contributes significantly to the global disease burden. TV and social media play a key role to disseminate awareness among people by broadcasting awareness programs. In this paper, a nonlinear model is formulated and analyzed in which cumulative number of advertisements through TV and social media is taken as dynamical variable that propagates awareness among people to control the prevalence of vector-borne disease. The human population is partitioned into susceptible, infected and aware classes, while the vector population is divided into susceptible and infected classes. Humans become infected and new cases arise when bitten by infected vectors (mosquitoes) and susceptible vectors get infected as they bite infected humans. The feasibility of equilibria is justified and their stability conditions are discussed. A crucial parameter, basic reproduction number, which measures the disease transmission potentiality is obtained. Bifurcation analysis is performed by varying the sensitive parameters, and it is found that the proposed system shows different kinds of bifurcations, such as transcritical bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation, etc. The analysis of the model shows that reduction in vector population due to intervention of people of aware class would not efficiently reduce the infective cases, rather we have to minimize the transmission rates anyhow, to control the disease outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate an epidemic model with quarantine and recovery-age effects. Reformulating the model as an abstract nondensely defined Cauchy problem, we discuss the existence and uniqueness of solutions to the model and study the stability of the steady state based on the basic reproduction number. After analyzing the distribution of roots to a fourth degree exponential polynomial characteristic equation, we also derive the conditions of Hopf bifurcation. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider an SI epidemic model incorporating additive Allee effect and time delay. The primary purpose of this paper is to study the dynamics of the above system. Firstly, for the model without time delay, we demonstrate the existence and stability of equilibria for three different cases, i.e. with weak Allee effect, with strong Allee effect, and in the critical case. We also investigate the existence and uniqueness of Hopf bifurcation and limit cycle. Secondly, for the model with time delay, the stability of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are discussed. All the above show that both additive Allee effect and time delay have vital effects on the prevalence of the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tumor immune escape refers to the inability of the immune system to clear tumor cells, which is one of the major obstacles in designing effective treatment schemes for cancer diseases. Although clinical studies have led to promising treatment outcomes, it is imperative to design theoretical models to investigate the long-term treatment effects. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to study the interactions among tumor cells, immune escape tumor cells, and T lymphocyte. The chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy is also described by the mathematical model. Bifurcation analysis shows that there exists backward bifurcation and saddle-node bifurcation when the immune intensity is used as the bifurcation parameter. The proposed model also exhibits bistability when its parameters are located between the saddle-node threshold and backward bifurcation threshold. Sensitivity analysis is performed to illustrate the effects of different mechanisms on the backward bifurcation threshold and basic immune reproduction number. Simulation studies confirm the bifurcation analysis results and predict various types of treatment outcomes using different CAR T-cell therapy strengths. Analysis and simulation results show that the immune intensity can be used to control the tumor size, but it has no effect on the control of the immune escape tumor size. The introduction of the CAR T-cell therapy will reduce the immune escape tumor size and the treatment effect depends on the CAR T-cell therapy strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have demonstrated that immune impairment is an essential factor in viral infection for disease development and treatment. In this paper, we formulate an age-structured viral infection model with a nonmonotonic immune response and perform dynamical analysis to explore the effects of both immune impairment and virus control. The basic infection reproduction number is derived for a general viral production rate, which determines the global stability of the infection-free equilibrium. For the immune intensity, we get two important thresholds, the post-treatment control threshold and the elite control threshold. The interval between the two thresholds is a bistable interval, where there are two immune-present infected equilibria. When the immune intensity is greater than the elite control threshold, only one immune-present infected equilibrium exists and it is stable. By assuming the death rate and virus production rate of infected cells to be constants, with the immune intensity as a bifurcation parameter, the system exhibits saddle-node bifurcation, transcritical bifurcation, and backward/forward bifurcation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that dynamical systems are very useful tools to study viral diseases such as HIV, HBV, HCV, Ebola and Influenza. This paper focuses on a mathematical model of the cell-to-cell and the cell-free spread of HIV with both linear and nonlinear functional responses and logistic target cell growth. The reproduction number of each mode of transmission has been calculated and their sum has been considered as the basic reproduction number. Based on the values of the reproduction number, the local and global stabilities of the rest points are investigated. Choosing a suitable bifurcation parameter, some conditions for the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation are also obtained. Moreover, numerical simulations are presented to support the analytical results. Finally, to study the effect of the drug on the disease process, some control conditions are determined. Since two modes of transmission and both linear and nonlinear functional responses have been included in this manuscript, our obtained results are a generalization of those in the literature. Moreover, the results are obtained with weaker assumptions in comparison with the previous ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a delayed-within-host-dengue infection model with mitosis and immune response is analyzed. The basic reproduction number is calculated and a detailed discussion on the local and global dynamics of the model is conducted. By using comparison arguments, it is shown that when the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the existence of Hopf bifurcation and stability switch at the immunity-activated infection equilibrium of the model with or without delay is established. Furthermore, by means of Lyapunov functional and LaSalle's invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the immunity-activated infection equilibrium. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate the main theoretical results. The normal form is calculated to analyze some properties of the bifurcation periodic solution when the time delay is absent. Moreover, we carry out sensitivity analysis on basic reproduction number to determine crucial parameters that affect the stability of each of feasible equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an acute tick-borne disease caused by SFTS virus (SFTSV). In this paper, we use difference equations to establish a discrete tick-borne disease model with systemic and transovarial transmission. Using the method of the next generation of matrix, we get the basic reproduction number R 0 to determine whether SFTS will die out. Furthermore, we analyze the existence and stability of equilibrium points by R 0 . In addition, the transcritical bifurcation property at the disease-free equilibrium point is discussed by deriving a equation describing the flow on the center manifold. Finally, we perform numerical simulations to verify the theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates an 11-dimensional slow–fast system of multiscale COVID-19 model with interval parameters. For the slow subsystem, the local dynamics of disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE) are studied by using the fast–slow theory. Two criteria of the existence of forward and backward bifurcations are further obtained. When the basic reproduction number R 0 is less than unity, we show that bistabilities of DFE and EE for R c < R 0 < 1 can be caused by backward bifurcation. Thus, controlling R 0 below critical value R c is effective to eliminate endemic diseases. Meanwhile, the slow subsystem undergoes saddle-node bifurcation at R 0 = R c and undergoes pitchfork bifurcation at R 0 = 1 for EE. Moreover, the stability and bifurcation of the multiscale full system are established. As an application, the numerical simulations of real data of COVID-19 in Hong Kong are used to verify these results, which show that increasing vaccination rate, improving vaccine effectiveness and decreasing the fraction of individuals in risky state 2 are necessary to control the COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a diffusive SIR model with general incidence rate, saturated treatment rate and spatially heterogeneous diffusion coefficients. We first prove the global existence of bounded solutions for the model and compute the basic reproduction number. We study the local and global stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium and the uniform persistence. In the case when the diffusion rate of infected individuals is constant, we carry out a bifurcation analysis of equilibria by considering the maximal treatment rate as the bifurcation parameter. Finally, we perform some numerical simulations, which show that the solutions to our model present periodic oscillations for certain values of the parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider an HIV infection model with virus-to-cell infection, cell-to-cell transmission, intracellular delay and mitosis of uninfected cells. The basic reproduction number is calculated by using the method of the next generation matrix. By comparison arguments, it is proved that when the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the existence of Hopf bifurcation and stability switch at the chronic-infection equilibrium of the model with or without intracellular delay is established. Further, by constructing Lyapunov functionals, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the chronic-infection equilibrium when the cell-to-cell transmission is negligible. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main theoretical results. The normal form is calculated to determine the bifurcation direction and stability, as well as amplitude and period of bifurcating periodic solutions when the intracellular delay is absent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we formulate a new-age structured heroin transmission model with respect to the age of vaccination which structures the vaccine wanes rate α (a) and infection ratio of vaccination individuals σ (a). The well-posedness and the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 of our model are first presented. If ℛ 0 < 1 , the drug-free steady state ℰ 0 is locally stable and there will be multiple positive steady states due to the imperfect vaccine. If ℛ 0 > 1 , there is a unique drug spread steady state, and our model is uniformly persistent. To reveal the dynamics of our model in detail, we carry out a further analysis in some special cases, including the backward and forward bifurcation results of our model when α (a) = α and σ (a) = σ , and the unique drug-spread steady state's stability when ℛ 0 > 1. Finally, a brief conclusion and discussion are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the dynamics of a three-species food chain model with two predators infected by an infectious disease is investigated. The positivity and boundedness of the system, the existence of the equilibria and the basic reproductive number are given. Sufficient conditions for the local stability of all equilibria are obtained by analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions and taking the geometric approach, the global stability of all equilibria is proved. According to the center manifold theory, this model undergoes the phenomenon of backward and forward bifurcations in a certain range of the basic reproductive number R 0 . By taking the disease transmission coefficient of predator as bifurcation parameter, Hopf bifurcation emerges in the neighborhood of the endemic equilibrium. Furthermore, the optimal control of the disease is discussed by the Pontryagin's maximum principle. Various simulations are given to support the analytical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we improve an Ignorant-Lurker-Spreader-Removal (ILSR) rumor propagation model as in [Yang et al., 2019] in social networks with consideration to Logistic growth and two discrete delays. First, we prove the existence of equilibrium points by calculating the basic reproduction number according to the next generation matrix. Regarding the two discrete delays as bifurcating parameters, the local asymptotical stability and Hopf bifurcation of the positive equilibrium point are discussed for six different scenarios by analyzing the characteristic equations of linearized systems. Applying the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem, some important conclusions about the stability and direction of bifurcating periodic solution are given when the two time delays are equal. Subsequently we study the global stability of the equilibrium points by constructing Lyapunov functions when the two delays disappear. Finally, we verify the conclusions through numerical simulations and perform sensitivity analysis on the basic reproduction numbers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Re-emergence of cholera threatens people's health globally. However, its periodic re-emerging outbreaks are still poorly understood. In this paper, we develop a simple ordinary differential equation (ODE) model to study the cholera outbreak cycles. Our model involves both direct (i.e. human-to-human) and indirect (i.e. environment-to-human) transmission routes, due to the multiple interactions between the human host, the pathogen, and the environment. In particular, we model the pathogen searching distance as a Poisson point process, and then formulate the host-pathogen encounter (HPE) rate. A thorough mathematical analysis is performed to investigate local and global dynamics of the model. Necessary and sufficient condition under which the backward bifurcation occurs is derived. Fold, Hopf, and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcations are studied with original model parameter values to reveal their relations with model behaviors. One- and two-dimensional bifurcation diagrams are provided to categorize model dynamics with respect to its parameter values. Analytical and numerical analyses show that our simple model is sufficient to exhibit complex epidemic patterns of cholera dynamics including bistability and annual and multiannual periodic outbreaks. Our result regarding the backward bifurcation and complex dynamics of cholera epidemics highlight the challenges in the prevention and control of the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the dynamics of a vector-borne disease model with two transmission paths: direct transmission through contact and indirect transmission through vector. The direct transmission is considered to be a nonmonotone incidence function to describe the psychological effect of some severe diseases among the population when the number of infected hosts is large and/or the disease possesses high case fatality rate. The system has a disease-free equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) is less than unity and may have up to four endemic equilibria. Analytical expression representing the epidemic growth rate is obtained for the system. Sensitivity of the two transmission pathways were compared with respect to the epidemic growth rate. We numerically find that the direct transmission coefficient is more sensitive than the indirect transmission coefficient with respect to R 0 and the epidemic growth rate. Local stability of endemic equilibrium is studied. Further, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium is proved using Li and Muldowney geometric approach. The explicit condition for which the system undergoes backward bifurcation is obtained. The basic model also exhibits the hysteresis phenomenon which implies diseases will persist even when R 0 < 1 although the system undergoes a forward bifurcation and this phenomenon is rarely observed in disease models. Consequently, our analysis suggests that the diseases with multiple transmission routes exhibit bistable dynamics. However, efficient application of temporary control in bistable regions will curb the disease to lower endemicity. Additionally, numerical simulations reveal that the equilibrium level of infected hosts decreases as psychological effect increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with an age-structured HIV infection model with logistic growth for target cells and both virus-to-cell and cell-to-cell infection routes. Based on the existence of the infection-free and infection equilibria and some rigorous analyses for the considered model, we study the asymptotic stability of these equilibria via determining the distribution of eigenvalues. We also address the persistence of the solution semi-flow by proving the existence of a global attractor. Furthermore, Hopf bifurcation occurring at the positive steady state is exploited. At last, some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the obtained results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we incorporate immune systems into an HIV model, which considers both logistic target-cell proliferation and viral cell-to-cell transmission. We study the dynamics of this model including the existence and stability of equilibria. Based on the existence of equilibria, we focus on the backward bifurcation and forward bifurcation. Considering the stability of equilibria, Hopf bifurcation is discussed by identifying the basic reproduction number R 0 as bifurcation parameter. The direction and stability of Hopf bifurcation are investigated by computing the first Lyapunov exponent. Specially, the effects of immune response on the basic reproduction number R 0 and viral dynamics are addressed by deriving the sensitivity analysis. As a result, we find that the removal rate of infected cells by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs), γ 1 , is the predominant factor of R 0 . However, we conclude from numerical results that it is unfeasible to decrease R 0 by increasing the value of γ 1 constantly. Numerical simulation is also presented to demonstrate the applicability of the theoretical predictions. These dynamics are investigated by the proposed model to point out the importance and complexity of immune responses in fighting HIV replication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers a general virus dynamics model with cell-mediated immune response and direct cell-to-cell infection modes. The model incorporates two types of intracellular distributed time delays and a discrete delay in the CTL immune response. Under certain conditions, the model exhibits a global threshold dynamics with respect to two parameters: the basic reproduction number and the reproduction number of immune response. We use suitable Lyapunov functionals and apply Lasalle's invariance principle to establish the global asymptotic stability of the two boundary equilibria. We also perform a bifurcation analysis for the positive equilibrium to show that the time delays may lead to sustained oscillations. To determine the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the periodic solutions, the method of multiple time scales is applied. Finally, we carry out numerical simulations to illustrate our results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model is proposed with a saturated treatment function. The expression of the basic reproduction number for the proposed model was obtained. The global dynamics of the proposed model was studied using the basic reproduction number and theory of dynamical systems. It is observed that proposed model exhibits backward bifurcation as multiple endemic equilibrium points exist when . The existence of backward bifurcation implies that making is not enough for disease eradication. This, in turn, makes it difficult to control the spread of cholera in the community. We also obtain a unique endemic equilibria when . The global stability of unique endemic equilibria is performed using the geometric approach. An extensive numerical study is performed to support our analytical results. Finally, we investigate two major cholera outbreaks, Zimbabwe (2008-09) and Haiti (2010), with the help of the present study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, the 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa was the largest outbreak to date. In this paper, an attempt has been made for modeling the virus dynamics using an SEIR model to better understand and characterize the transmission trajectories of the Ebola outbreak. We compare the simulated results with the most recent reported data of Ebola infected cases in the three most affected countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The epidemic model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free and unique endemic equilibria. Existence and local stability of these equilibria are explored. Using central manifold theory, it is established that the transcritical bifurcation occurs when basic reproduction number passes through unity. The proposed Ebola epidemic model provides an estimate to the potential number of future cases. The model indicates that the disease will decline after peaking if multisectorial and multinational efforts to control the spread of infection are maintained. Possible implication of the results for disease eradication and its control are discussed which suggests that proper control strategies like: (i) transmission precautions, (ii) isolation and care of infectious Ebola patients, (iii) safe burial, (iv) contact tracing with follow-up and quarantine, and (v) early diagnosis are needed to stop the recurrent outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the dynamics of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) on complex metapopulation, that is, networks of populations connected by migratory flows whose configurations are described in terms of connectivity distribution of nodes (patches) and the conditional probabilities of connections among classes of nodes sharing the same degree. The migration and transmission processes occur simultaneously. For uncorrelated networks, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the instability of the disease-free equilibrium. The existence of endemic equilibria is also discussed. Finally, the prevalence of the TB infection across the metapopulation as a function of the path connectivity is studied using numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Culling birds has always been an effective method to control the spread of avian influenza. Here, we introduce a Filippov avian-only model with culling of both susceptible and infected birds. The Filippov-type model is formulated by considering that no control strategy is taken if the number of infected birds is less than an infected threshold level I c ; further, we cull infected birds once the number of infected birds exceeds I c ; meanwhile, we cull susceptible birds if the number of susceptible birds exceeds a susceptible threshold level S c . The global dynamical behavior of the Filippov system, including the existence and stability of various types of equilibria, the existence of the sliding mode and its dynamics, together with bifurcation analyses with regard to local sliding bifurcations, is investigated. It is shown that model solutions ultimately converge to the positive equilibrium that lies in the region above I c , or below I c , or on I = I c , as we vary the susceptible and infected threshold values S c and I c . Our results indicate that proper combinations of the susceptible and infected threshold values based on the threshold policy can maintain the number of infected birds either below a certain threshold level or at a previously given level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have developed a class of viral infection model with cell-to-cell transmission and humoral immune response. The model addresses both immune and intracellular delays. We also constructed Lyapunov functionals to establish the global dynamical properties of the equilibria. Theoretical results indicate that considering only two intracellular delays did not affect the dynamical behavior of the model, but incorporating an immune delay greatly affects the dynamics, i.e. an immune delay may destabilize the immunity-activated equilibrium and lead to Hopf bifurcation, oscillations and stability switches. Our results imply that an immune delay dominates the intracellular delays in the model. We also investigated the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the periodic solutions by applying normal form and center manifold theory, and investigated the existence of global Hopf bifurcation by regarding the immune delay as a bifurcation parameter. Numerical simulations are carried out to support the analytical conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we propose a state-dependent impulsive model describing the susceptible individuals-triggered interventions. We find that the model with susceptible individuals-guided impulsive interventions can exhibit very complex dynamical behaviors with rich biological meanings. We note that this formulated impulsive model has disease-free periodic solution, and we can investigate the threshold dynamics by defining the control reproduction number. We study the existence and stability of the disease-free periodic solution (DFPS) for R 0 < 1. Our results show that, even if the basic reproduction number R 0 > 1 , the DFPS can still be stable when the threshold level of susceptible population S T ≤ S ¯ , indicating that with a proper chosen S T , the state-dependent impulsive strategy can effectively control the development of the infectious disease and eradicate the disease eventually. By employing the bifurcation theory, we investigate the bifurcation phenomenon near the DFPS with respect to some key parameters, and observe that a positive order-1 periodic solution can bifurcate from the DFPS via a transcritical bifurcation. By utilizing numerical simulation, we further explore the existence and stability of the positive order- k periodic solutions, and found the feasibility of stable positive order-1, order-2 and order-3 periodic solutions, that imply the existence of chaos. In particular, we find that there can be three positive order-1 periodic solutions simultaneously, in which one is stable and the other two are unstable. Our finding indicates that the comprehensive strategy combining continuous treatment with state-dependent impulsive vaccination and isolation plays a crucial role in controlling the prevalence and further spread of the infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, inorganic polymer flocculants have been developed into a new type of water treatment reagents, which are more efficient than traditional inorganic flocculants and much cheaper than organic polymer flocculants. Based on the mechanism of inorganic polymer flocculants, a diffusive model is proposed to study the chemotaxis effect on algae. The chemotaxis flux of algae depends on not only its own density, but also the density of flocculants and the density gradient of flocculants. For the spatially heterogeneous model in the absence of chemotaxis, threshold dynamics can be expressed by the basic reproduction number R 0 which describes the average number of new population generated by initial fertile algae individuals. Further, the phenomenon of backward and forward bifurcations, local asymptotic stability properties and the existence of traveling wave solutions are studied for the spatially homogeneous model in the presence of chemotaxis. Our results suggest that reducing R 0 to be smaller than one may not be sufficient to eradicate the algae. Numerical analysis reveals that the minimal wave speed may be linearly deterministic in the absence of chemotaxis, while it is not linearly deterministic in the presence of chemotaxis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study, an SIS epidemic model with a latent period of infection and media awareness as control strategy is proposed. The asymptotic stability of the model is studied for both disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium states with respect to the basic reproduction number . It is observed that the coefficient of media awareness does not affect , but significantly affects the level of endemic equilibrium. Further, the specific conditions for the existence of Hopf bifurcation have been obtained for the endemic equilibrium state. We also performed the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and state variables at endemic steady state with respect to the model parameter and identified the respective sensitive parameters. Numerical simulations have been presented in support of our analytic findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]