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Human bioclimatic comfort (HBC) is an important subject of climatology in the field of physical geography. Human bioclimatic comfort (HBC) is the feeling of satisfied and comfortable within the ambient atmospheric thermal environment. Earth climate system has been exposed to changes from the beginning, but since 19 th century human - induced factors have contributed to these changes. HBC is the combined effect of atmospheric conditions and affected by all the changes in them. Turkey is among the countries in Mediterranean region, expected to develop higher vulnerabilities to the (bio) climate hazards. Therefore, a Mediterranean city in the south of the country, Adana, was chosen as the study area. HBC assessment was made for the past (1961 - 1990), present (1991 - 2022), near (2030 - 2060) and distant future (2070 - 2100) using hourly - data from the official meteorology station between 1961 and 2022, daily data of the climate model scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index, the Rayman model and Geographic Information Systems in the spatial distribution of HBC conditions. The analysis showed that the prevalence of "cold" and "cool" stresses has decreased while that of "hot" and "very hot" stresses has increased from the past to the present in Adana. It is predicted that present conditions will continue in the near and distant future, all comfort ranges will increase to the following warm range and the ideal period for HBC conditions will be the winter season. In order to reduce the adverse HBC conditions in cities due to climate change by creating climate resilient, sustainable and healthy cities, urban design and planning principles should be followed from a geographical point of view., (© 2024. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to International Society of Biometeorology.)

This study evaluates the potential of gridded AgMERRA (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) to estimate aridity index (AI), growing degree days (GDD), and temperature seasonality (TS) for six land stations across northeast Iran. The researcher investigated the spatiotemporal variation of the AgMERRA-derived agro-climatic indices for the entire period 1981-2010 and three 10-year sub-periods for the 347 wheat harvested grid cells (0.25° × 0.25°) and their utility for agro-climate zoning in northeast Iran. Results indicated a good agreement between AgMERRA daily solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and annual total precipitation with corresponding land observations for the six studied sites. AgMERRA-derived evapotranspiration (ET o ), AI, GDD, and TS also exhibited good agreement (R 2 and d > 0.7) with the land station-derived indices for most of the locations. Annual analysis of the AI indicated a negative trend for all of the wheat harvested grid cells, but the decrease was significant (p < 0.05) only for 14.70% of grid cells, which were located in the southwest part of the studied region. The magnitude of the significant decreasing trends in annual AI was (-)0.0011 per year. The increase in aridity was due to the concurrent occurrences of positive ET o trends and negative precipitation trends. All of the wheat harvested grid cells showed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) for GDD at the rate of 24.10 °C d year -1 . The TS series demonstrated an apparent increasing trend for 99.2% of wheat harvested grid cells; however, only 16.9% of them had the significant positive trend (p < 0.05) with the average rate of 0.023 °C year -1 . The wheat harvested grid cells with increasing trend for TS were mainly distributed in the arid mountainous southern part of the study area. The 10 years sub-periods revealed that the best conditions in terms of most of the studied agro-climatic indices were found in sub-period 1981-1990 and the north Khorasan had better conditions in all three sub-periods. Based on AI, GDD, and TS, 13 major gridded agro-climatic zones were recognized in northeast Iran., (© 2021. ISB.)

Climate change is a global public health challenge. The changes in climatic factors affect the pattern and burden of tuberculosis, which is a worldwide public health problem affecting low and middle-income countries. However, the evidence related to the impact of climate change on tuberculosis is few and far between. This study is a scoping review following a five-stage version of Arksey and O'Malley's method. We searched the literature using the keywords and their combination in Google scholar, and PubMed. Climate change affects tuberculosis through diverse pathways: changes in climatic factors like temperature, humidity, and precipitation influence host response through alterations in vitamin D distribution, ultraviolet radiation, malnutrition, and other risk factors. The rise in extreme climatic events induces population displacement resulting in a greater number of vulnerable and risk populations of tuberculosis. It creates a conducive environment of tuberculosis transmission and development of active tuberculosis and disrupts tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment services. Therefore, it stands to reasons that climate change affects tuberculosis, particularly in highly vulnerable countries and areas. However, further studies and novel methodologies are required to address such a complex relationship and better understand the occurrence of tuberculosis attributable to climate change., (© 2021. ISB.)

The influence of climate conditions in the agricultural environment is important in evapotranspiration, water availability for plants and roots, and other processes. This research focuses on two aspects: (1) the effects of climate change on the occurrence of extreme events that may affect agricultural processes in a region in Illinois (USA), and (2) the effects of climate change on the soil water dynamics in a corn crop. Different climate scenarios developed by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, using a climate model with medium resolution-IPSL(CM5MR), provided input to simulate soil water dynamics in two fields with different drainage system layouts. The Hydrus model simulated surface flux and runoff. Results indicate that the variation of precipitation and temperature in the future may increase extreme events, representing a risk for agriculture. Hydrus simulations indicate different results accordingly to the drainage layout, suggesting that it may be necessary to make adjustments in drainage systems in the future. In general, surface flux and runoff will increase over time, and these changes are more related to extreme events than average values. Extreme event indices show vulnerability in agriculture and will be reflected in changes in the soil water dynamics, and may increase the climatic risk of corn production.

Sensing and measuring meteorological and physiological parameters of humans, animals, and plants are necessary to understand the complex interactions that occur between atmospheric processes and the health of the living organisms. Advanced sensing technologies have provided both meteorological and biological data across increasingly vast spatial, spectral, temporal, and thematic scales. Information and communication technologies have reduced barriers to data dissemination, enabling the circulation of information across different jurisdictions and disciplines. Due to the advancement and rapid dissemination of these technologies, a review of the opportunities for sensing the health effects of weather and climate change is necessary. This paper provides such an overview by focusing on existing and emerging technologies and their opportunities and challenges for studying the health effects of weather and climate change on humans, animals, and plants.

Since the first issue of the International Journal of Biometeorology in 1957, a total of 135 papers have reported on research in or of African countries. The majority of these have been on topics of animal biometeorology (36%), and the greatest proportion (24%) are situated in Nigeria. There has been a considerable increase in papers on African biometeorology since 2011, with those from this past decade accounting for 58% of all African papers in the journal. This occurs concurrent to an increase in the total number of papers published in the journal, driven by a move to the Editorial Manager system. While 66% of the papers on African biometeorology in the journal are authored by at least one person with an affiliation in the African continent, only 15 African countries are represented in the total authorship. As much of the African continent is projected to experience climatic changes exceeding the global mean, as much of the region is involved in animal and plant farming, and as seasonally-fluctuating and climatically affected diseases are common place, this low representation of work in Africa is surprising. This points to the need for greater awareness among African researchers of the discipline of biometeorology, greater involvement of African biometeorologists in International Society of Biometeorology and Commission meetings, and the inclusion of a greater number of African academics in the review process. This would be beneficial to the Society in increasing diversity and encouraging a more cosmopolitan engagement, and to the recognition of scientific development in African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this initial study of a research project, this paper seeks to understand the thermal conditions in the cities of Lisbon and Munich, specifically focusing on Urban Heat Island intensity and on thermal comfort using the Universal Thermal Climate Index modeling data at the Local Climate Zone scale. Based on these datasets, Munich has exhibited more unfavourable thermal conditions than Lisbon. In terms of UHII, both cities have shown that low, medium, and high rise compact urban areas and bare rock or paved areas have the highest values, while sparsely built areas have the lowest. These results differ from the UTCI, which indicates that in Lisbon and Munich, these sparsely built areas as well as areas with low plants and vegetation are the most uncomfortable. In Munich, the population was exposed to very strong heat stress, while Lisbon experienced strong heat stress conditions. Conversely, low, medium, and high rise compact urban areas and densely wooded areas in Munich, and scattered trees areas and large low-rise urban areas in Lisbon, have demonstrated the lowest monthly mean and average maximum values. These results will be further explored in future studies in the city of Lisbon and cross-checked with data obtained from roving missions. This will enable a more detailed temporal and local analysis., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Context: Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. Method: A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. Results: The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970–2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. Discussion: Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover change (LCC) significantly changed the local/regional temperature. This paper attempts to reveal the effects of cropland expansion in different ways on temperature change from the 1900s to 2010s in Heilongjiang Province. To reach this goal, we conducted four simulation research schemes with the coupled Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)-Noah model to investigate the warming/cooling effect of cropland expansion. The results show that cropland expansion exerted different effects with different land-use type conversions. In the last century, the areas with grassland-to-cropland and wetland-to-cropland transition show the warming effect, and the average surface temperature in Heilongjiang Province increased by 0.023 ℃ and 0.024 ℃, respectively. The areas with forest-to-cropland transition show the cooling effect, in which the average temperature decreased by 0.103 ℃. The variation of air temperature is mainly caused by the variation of surface reflectance and surface net radiation flux. The results provide evidence that cropland expansion changes to biophysical landscape characteristics, warming/cooling the land surface and thus enhancing/reducing the temperature, and lead to regional climate change eventually., (© 2022. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to International Society of Biometeorology.)

Tropical inland capture fisheries are susceptible to a series of vulnerabilities such as habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, pollution, overfishing, invasive species and anthropogenic climate change. A comprehensive review of the impact of climatic uncertainties on Indian inland fisheries has not been adequately attempted yet. Recent approaches emphasizing ecosystem-based management in a regional context, specific to inland fisheries for combating climatic changes, have not been reported to date. The paper presents a critical bibliometric review of the climatic vulnerabilities faced by Indian inland fishery resources and various adaptive and mitigation strategies put forward by the country for the sustainability of the resources. In this communication, a systematic review of the impact of climate change and other stressors on various inland ecosystems of the subcontinent and the ecosystem-based management strategies adopted in India is presented and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to global climate change, droughts are likely to become more frequent and more severe in many regions such as in South Africa. In Limpopo, observed high climate variability and projected future climate change will likely increase future maize production risks. This paper evaluates drought patterns in Limpopo at two representative sites. We studied how drought patterns are projected to change under future climatic conditions as an important step in identifying adaptation measures (e.g., breeding maize ideotypes resilient to future conditions). Thirty-year time horizons were analyzed, considering three emission scenarios and five global climate models. We applied the WOFOST crop model to simulate maize crop growth and yield formation over South Africa's summer season. We considered three different crop emergence dates. Drought indices indicated that mainly in the scenario SSP5-8.5 (2051–2080), Univen and Syferkuil will experience worsened drought conditions (DC) in the future. Maize yield tends to decline and future changes in the emergence date seem to impact yield significantly. A possible alternative is to delay sowing date to November or December to reduce the potential yield losses. The grain filling period tends to decrease in the future, and a decrease in the duration of the growth cycle is very likely. Combinations of changed sowing time with more drought tolerant maize cultivars having a longer post-anthesis phase will likely reduce the potential negative impact of climate change on maize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, air conditioning (AC) is the most effective means for the cooling of indoor space. However, its increased global use is problematic for various reasons. This paper explores the challenges linked to increased AC use and discusses more sustainable alternatives. A literature review was conducted applying a transdisciplinary approach. It was further complemented by examples from cities in hot climates. To analyse the findings, an analytical framework was developed which considers four societal levels—individual, community, city, and national. The main challenges identified from the literature review are as follows: environmental, organisational, socio-economical, biophysical and behavioural. The paper also identifies several measures that could be taken to reduce the fast growth of AC use. However, due to the complex nature of the problem, there is no single solution to provide sustainable cooling. Alternative solutions were categorised in three broad categories: climate-sensitive urban planning and building design, alternative cooling technologies, and climate-sensitive attitudes and behaviour. The main findings concern the problems arising from leaving the responsibility to come up with cooling solutions entirely to the individual, and how different societal levels can work towards more sustainable cooling options. It is concluded that there is a need for a more holistic view both when it comes to combining various solutions as well as involving various levels in society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under-five years old acute watery diarrhea (U5AWD) accounts for most diarrheal diseases' burden, but little is known about the adjusted effect of meteorological and socioeconomic determinants. A dataset containing the seasonal numbers of U5AWD cases at the district level of Iran is collected through MOHME. Accordingly, the district-level standardized incidence ratio and Moran's I values are calculated to detect the significant clusters of U5AWD over sixteen seasons from 2014 to 2018. Additionally, the author tested twelve Bayesian hierarchical models in order to determine which one was the most accurate at forecasting seasonal number of incidents. Iran features a number of U5AWD hotspots, particularly in the southeast. An extended spatiotemporal model with seasonally varying coefficients and space–time interaction outperformed other models, and so became the paper's proposal in modeling U5AWD. Temperature demonstrated a global positive connection with seasonal U5AWD in districts (IRR: 1.0497; 95% CrI: 1.0254–1.0748), owing to its varying effects during the winter ((IRR: 1.0877; 95% CrI: 1.0408–1.1375) and fall (IRR: 1.0866; 95% CrI: 1.0405–1.1357) seasons. Also, elevation (IRR: 0.9997; 95% CrI: 0.9996–0.9998), piped drinking water (IRR: 0.9948; 95% CrI: 0.9933–0.9964), public sewerage network (IRR: 0.9965; 95% CrI: 0.9938–0.9992), years of schooling (IRR: 0.9649; 95% CrI: 0.944–0.9862), infrastructure-to-household size ratio (IRR: 0.9903; 95% CrI: 0.986–0.9946), wealth index (IRR: 0.9502; 95% CrI: 0.9231–0.9781), and urbanization (IRR: 0.9919; 95% CrI: 0.9893–0.9944) of districts were negatively associated with seasonal U5AWD incidence. Strategically, developing geoinformation alarm systems based on meteorological data might help predict U5AWD high-risk areas. The study also anticipates increased rates of U5AWD in districts with poor sanitation and socioeconomic level. Therefore, governments should take appropriate preventative actions in these sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an analysis of adaptation to extreme climate changes using the Australian animal husbandry data. The paper finds that farmers have adapted to a hot and arid climate regime through animal husbandry. The number of sheep vastly increases into arid ecosystems while the number of beef cattle does not decline in high temperatures. In the future climate system in which Australia becomes hotter and more arid, we predict that farmers will increase by large percentages the numbers of beef cattle and/or sheep owned in order to adapt to a highly unfavorable climate condition, especially into the arid ecosystems. This paper shows how humanity has adapted to climate extremes taking into account changing ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological shifts in plant species are one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change impact on the biosphere. Modeling phenological variations of plant species over broad regions is challenging because of the varied climatic requirements of geographic populations due to local adaptation. In this study, we developed an empirical method to calibrate phenological models of temperate trees using latitude as a predictor to account for local adaptation of populations to a N-S temperature gradient. Fourteen widely distributed tree species in the eastern U.S.A. were investigated using data from the USA-National Phenology Network. We implemented the method in a basic thermal time bud break model to introduce the algorithm of the method and test its effectiveness. For each species, dates of breaking leaf buds were first predicted using a traditional non-spatial model and then with a spatial model that has the critical thermal forcing requirements calibrated for different populations at varied latitudes. As anticipated, non-spatial model predictions that assumed a uniform forcing requirement across latitudes showed consistent and systematic biases at both higher (overestimation-predictions being later) and lower (underestimation-predictions being earlier) latitudes. Spatial models that have been calibrated using our method removed the geographic biases and yielded latitudinal gradients that more closely matched those of the observations. The spatial models also reduced the overall prediction errors from an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 32.2 days to 20.4 days for the training dataset and an average root mean square error for prediction (RMSEP) of 32.2 days to 19.9 days for the testing dataset. This paper is focused on introducing the new calibration method as a preparatory step toward developing operational models that may potentially predict large-scale and range-wide phenological responses of various plant species to climatic changes with improved local accuracy., (© 2021. ISB.)

This paper analyses how recent trends in heat waves impact heat warning systems. We performed a retrospective analysis of the challenges faced by the French heat prevention plan since 2004. We described trends based on the environmental and health data collected each summer by the French heat warning system and prevention plan. Major evolutions of the system were tracked based on the evaluations organized each autumn with the stakeholders of the prevention plan. Excess deaths numbering 8000 were observed during heat waves between 2004 and 2019, 71% of these between 2015 and 2019. We observed major changes in the characteristics, frequency and the geographical spread of heat waves since 2015. Feedbacks led to several updates of the warning system such as the extension of the surveillance period. They also revealed that risk perception remained limited among the population and the stakeholders. The sharp increase in the number of heat warnings issued per year since 2015 challenges the acceptability of the heat warnings. Recent heat waves without historical equivalent interfere with the development of evidence-based prevention strategies. The growing public health impacts heat waves emphasize the urgent need to act to adapt the population, at different levels of intervention, from individual comportments to structural modifications. A specific attention should be given to increase the resources allocated to the evaluation and the management of heat-related risks, especially considering the needs to catch with the rapid rhythm of the changing climate., (© 2021. ISB.)

Although ski tourism in China is experiencing a boom, and the number of operating ski areas has significantly increased, the influence of climate change on the future development of China's ski industry has so far largely been overlooked. This paper addresses this important gap by applying the ski season simulation model SkiSim 2.0 at 116 ski areas. Four main indicators of climate change impact were examined: ski season length, operational ski days in economically important season segments, technically produced snow and snowmaking requirements. For all ski resorts in China and all climate change scenarios, average ski seasons are projected to shorten (- 4 to - 61% RCP 4.5; - 6 to - 79% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s) while snowmaking needs increase (27 to 51% RCP 4.5; 46 to 80% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s). The results indicate that high regional differences in climate change vulnerability exist. The implications for altered competitiveness and development potential of the ski industry in China are discussed.

The International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB) has been the flagship journal in the field for the past 60+ years. However, given its interdisciplinary nature, biometeorology research has appeared in numerous publication outlets other than the IJB. This study compiles the most popular of these journals, so that early-career biometeorologists might be able to be exposed to more literature that the field has to offer. In focusing on where members of the International Society of Biometeorology's (ISB) Climate and Human Health Commission (CHH) members publish, journals with a general focus on fields such as climate, the environment, and health stand out. Many of these journals have impact factors much higher than the IJB, potentially making them more attractive for dissemination of results to a larger audience. With this paper, the authors hope that the interest in biometeorology is broadened through an expansion of known available literature, specifically with early-career researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant changes in climate variables in the last decades resulted in changes of perceived climate conditions. However, there are only few studies discussing long-lasting changes in bioclimatic conditions. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to present the temporal and spatial distribution of hazardous heat and cold stress conditions in different regions of Poland. Its focus is on long-lasting changes in such conditions in the period 1951–2018. To assess changes in hazardous thermal stress conditions, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used. UTCI values at 12 UTC hour (respectively 1 pm winter time, 2 pm summer time) were calculated daily based on air temperature, relative humidity, total cloud cover and wind speed at 24 stations representing the whole area of Poland. We found that the greatest changes were observed in minimum (1.33 °C/10 years) and average (0.52 °C/10 years) UTCI values as well as in cold stress frequency (− 4.00 days per 10 years). The changes vary seasonally and regionally. The greatest increase in UTCImin and decrease in cold stress days were noted from November to March and had the highest values in north-east and east Poland, and also in the foothills of the Carpathian Mountains. The trends in maximum UTCI are much smaller and not always positive. The spatially averaged trend in UTCImax for Poland as a whole was 0.35 °C/10 years and the increase in heat stress days was 0.80 days/10 years. The highest increases in UTCImax and heat stress days were noted in eastern and south-eastern Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses the temporal and spatial variability of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in Poland in summer. Summer is the season with the highest intensity of tourism traffic that is why it is important to determine biometeorological conditions, especially in popular tourist destinations such as coastal, mountain and urban areas, in the times of climate changes. The analysis was based on data from 18 stations of IMGW-PIB (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute), distributed evenly in the territory of the country, and representing all eight bioclimatic regions. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and cloudiness at 12 UTC from summer months: June, July and August from the years 2001–2018. Thermoneutral zone was the most frequently occurring UTCI class in Poland. It was recorded during 56–75% of summer days (with the exception of mountain stations, where it occurred on 30–35% of days). Moderate heat stress is the second most frequently occurring category with a frequency from 18 to 29% with the exception of mountain and coastal areas. Extreme and very strong cold stress occurred particularly in high mountain stations, and was sporadically observed at the coast of the Baltic Sea; however, the occurrence of such conditions decreases, which if favourable for beach tourism. No cases of extreme heat stress were recorded in any of the stations. The most unfavourable bioclimatic conditions were characteristic of the Upland Region (IV), represented by Kraków and Sandomierz, where very strong heat stress occurred with a 10% frequency. This is a limitation for urban tourism in those regions. The highest UTCI values were recorded in Kraków on 17 July 2007 and 29 July 2005. The highest number of cases with strong and very strong heat stress was recorded in 2015 as a consequence of the heat wave observed in Poland in the first half of August. In the majority of the analysed stations, in the second half of the analysed period (2010–2018), an increase in the number of days with strong and very strong heat stress was observed in comparison with the first half of period (2001–2009). The highest frequency of such days was observed in July. Based on the data, there are 4 potential periods of occurrence of such days, with two most intense being 26. July–13 August and 14–22 July. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both global climate change and urbanization trends will demand adaptation measures in cities. Large agglomerations and impacts on landscape and natural environments due to city growth will require guided densification schemes in urban areas, particularly in developing countries. Human biometeorological indices such as the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) could guide this process, as they provide a clear account of expected effects on thermal sensation from a given change in outdoor settings. However, an earlier step should optimally include an adequacy test of suggested comfort and thermal stress ranges with calibration procedures based on surveys with the target population. This paper compares obtained thermal comfort ranges for three different locations in Brazil: Belo Horizonte, 20° S, Aw climate type; Curitiba, 25.5° S, Cfb subtropical climate, both locations in elevation (above 900 m a.s.l.); and Pelotas, at sea level, latitude 32° S, with a Cfa climate type. In each city, a set of outdoor comfort field campaigns has been carried out according to similar procedures, covering a wide range of climatic conditions over different seasons of the year. Obtained results indicate a variation of neutral temperatures up to 3 °C (UTCI units) as a possible latitude and local climate effect between the southern locations relative to the northernmost location. Low UTCI values were found in the two subtropical locations for the lower threshold of the thermal comfort band as compared with the original threshold. A possible explanation for that is a longer exposure to cold conditions as buildings are seldom provided with heating systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting many living organisms; however, the responses of many of them remain unknown. In this paper, we present the results regarding the response of a bird species from the rallid family to the increased temperatures during the breeding season. We analysed the breeding data of Eurasian Coots nesting during 30 seasons between 1972 and 2019. During the study period, mean temperatures in April, the month when Coots start nesting, increased by 3.5 °C, and in months corresponding with the species breeding season by 2.6 °C. Breeding Coots advanced their earliest and median laying dates across the study period; however, the duration of their breeding season remained unchanged. We did not detect any significant temporal changes in clutch size, but clutches have become much more variable in size throughout the study period. Nest failures and production of offspring per nest did not change over the study period; however, the production of young per successful nest significantly declined. It is likely that this decline is the effect of mismatch between the period of food abundance (dipterans collected from water), and hatchling emergence, which is advanced due to change in climate. Future studies investigating the occurrence of dipteran resources at water bodies are needed to test this hypothesis.

Since the late 1970s, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has shown a significant weakening trend, and sustained drought has occurred across North China. Placing recent climate changes in the paleoclimatic context can better understand the EASM variations. Four δ18O sequences based on tree-ring cellulose of Chinese pine were developed from Mt. Beiwudang, North China, covering a period from 1700 to 2013. Based on a climatic response analysis, a transfer function was designed to reconstruct the relative humidity from July to August (RHJA hereafter). The RHJA spans from 1765 to 2013 and explains 49% (R2adj= 48%) of the instrumental variance during the calibration period (1961–2013, r = − 0.70, p < 0.0001). The RHJA is mainly influenced by precipitation in the summer rainy season and reflect EASM variations. Spatial representation analysis indicates that RHJA represents the dry/wet variations across North China. At the interannual scale, RHJA records many extreme dry/wet events, among which the events in 1876–1878, 1900, and the 1920s are extensive droughts. Those events correspond well to ENSO events, plus further correlation and periodicity analysis indicate that RHJA contains ENSO signals. At the interdecadal scale, RHJA shows a decreasing trend and unprecedented low values from 1981 to 2013, suggesting that the weakening of EASM since the late 1970s is unprecedented in the past 249 years. Similarly, the significantly correlating region in the spatial correlation analysis, covering the Meiyu/Baiu/Changma rainfall belt and India, have also undergone a climatic shift since the late 1970s according to previous papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the use of climatological data and published information to develop a thaw-freeze/freeze-kill indicator for fruit trees during flowering. In fruit-producing regions, when budding and flowering occur before the last spring freeze, a freeze-kill event can cause substantial losses. As spring onset is occurring earlier with climate change, thaw-freeze events have the potential to become more of a hazard both in terms of current production and in terms of potential adaptation strategies. To model the spring thaw-freeze and its magnitude or intensity, we proposed an indicator based on the accumulation of daily minimum temperature between successive freezing dates and its maximum value over the spring. This indicator was tested on apple and peach production in southern Ontario, Canada, using data from eight climate stations in southern Ontario. The indicator showed promise in its utility in that its magnitude was greater when freezing occurred after blooming and it was demonstrated to be correlated to the estimated blooming dates of apple and peach fruits grown in southern Ontario. The annual series was shown to fit the generalized extreme value distribution thereby allowing the extreme risk to be modelled and the return period to be calculated. It was also shown that the reported thaw-freeze events that caused significant apple and peach losses had a return period on the order of 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes a long-term (1991-2019) flowering period of birch in the Czech Republic. Temporal and spatial evaluation in timing of beginning and end of flowering (F begin and F end ) and flowering period (F period ) of Betula pendula were investigated in different zones of the Czech Republic. The field observations were carried out at 44 sites of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute phenological network; the detailed analysis including growing degree days (GDD) evaluation to F begin and F end onsets and time of flowering were made at 9 sites in different altitudes. The trends and Pearson's correlation coefficients between F begin (F end ) and GDDs were calculated as well. The timing of both phenological stages showed a significant advance to earlier onsets (e.g., - 7.0 d per decade at Měděnec station) and the time of flowering shortens (e.g., - 3.8 d per decade at Rokytnice station). Nevertheless, the most marked shift was observed for mountain area in the north-western and north-eastern part of the Czech Republic. In contrast, the smallest shift was found in the southern part of the Czech Republic. The shift of the GDD values fluctuates from negative to positive values. Pearson's correlation coefficients calculated for both phenophases and period of flowering of Betula pendula showed the highest values in F period (e.g., 0.846 at Modrava station) and in F end (e.g., 0.711 at Rokytnice station) as well. Thus, our results indicate due to global warming symptoms that birch pollen allergy may appear earlier in the year but for a shorter period.

Phenological models are widely used to estimate the influence of weather and climate on plant development. The goodness of fit of phenological models often is assessed by considering the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between observed and predicted dates. However, the spatial patterns and temporal trends derived from models with similar RMSE may vary considerably. In this paper, we analyse and compare patterns and trends from a suite of temperature-based phenological models, namely extended spring indices, thermal time and photothermal time models. These models were first calibrated using lilac leaf onset observations for the period 1961-1994. Next, volunteered phenological observations and daily gridded temperature data were used to validate the models. After that, the two most accurate models were used to evaluate the patterns and trends of leaf onset for the conterminous US over the period 2000-2014. Our results show that the RMSEs of extended spring indices and thermal time models are similar and about 2 days lower than those produced by the other models. Yet the dates of leaf out produced by each of the models differ by up to 11 days, and the trends differ by up to a week per decade. The results from the histograms and difference maps show that the statistical significance of these trends strongly depends on the type of model applied. Therefore, further work should focus on the development of metrics that can quantify the difference between patterns and trends derived from spatially explicit phenological models. Such metrics could subsequently be used to validate phenological models in both space and time. Also, such metrics could be used to validate phenological models in both space and time.