Search

Birth cohorts vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) are now entering cervical cancer screening. Assessment of (pre)cancer (CIN3+) risk is needed to assess the residual screening need in vaccinated women. We estimated the lifetime (screen‐detected) CIN3+ risk under five‐yearly primary HPV screening between age 30 and 60, using HPV genotyping and histology data of 21,287 women participating in a screening trial with two HPV‐based screening rounds, 5 years apart. The maximum follow‐up after an HPV‐positive test was 9 years. We re‐estimated the CIN3+ risk after projecting direct vaccine efficacy for the bivalent and the nonavalent HPV vaccines, assuming life‐long protection. The lifetime CIN3+ risk was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.5‐4.9) and declined by 53.5% and 70.5% after bivalent vaccination without and with cross‐protection, respectively, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 1.9% (1.4‐2.4) and 1.2% (0.9‐1.5). The CIN3+ risk declined by 88.5% after nonavalent vaccination, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 0.5% (0.2‐0.7). The latter risk increased to 1.6% when vaccine protection only lasted until the first screening round at age 30. Among HPV‐positive women with abnormal adjunct cytology, the nine‐year CIN3+ risk was 16.9% (8.7‐32.4) after nonavalent vaccination. In conclusion, HPV vaccination will lead to a strong decline in the lifetime CIN3+ risk and the remaining absolute CIN3+ risk will be very low. Primary HPV testing combined with adjunct cytology at five‐year intervals still seems feasible even after nonavalent vaccination, although unlikely to be cost‐effective. Our results support a de‐intensification of screening programs in settings with high vaccination coverage., What's new? Human papillomavirus (HPV)‐based screening and vaccination are key strategies for early detection and prevention of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and cancer (CIN3+). Here the authors estimated the lifetime screen‐detected CIN3+ risk expected under different HPV vaccination scenarios using a novel statistical, data‐driven approach that deals with multiple‐type HPV infections. The model estimated that the lifetime CIN3+ risks under five‐yearly primary HPV screening will become very low in vaccinated women, in particular when protection is life‐long and provided beyond genotypes 16 and 18. These CIN3+ risks are important when defining new extended screening intervals for vaccinated cohorts.

Cytological screening has substantially decreased the cervical cancer incidence, but even better protection may be achieved by primary high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) screening. In the Netherlands, five-yearly cytological screening for women aged 30-60 years will be replaced by primary hrHPV screening in 2016. The new screening guidelines involve an extension of the screening interval from 5 to 10 years for hrHPV-negative women aged 40 or 50 years. We investigated the impact of this program change on the lifetime cancer risks in women without an hrHPV infection at age 30, 35, 40, 45 or 50 years. The time to cancer was estimated using 14-year follow-up data from a population-based screening intervention trial and the nationwide database of histopathology reports. The new screening guidelines are expected to lead to a reduced cervical cancer risk for all age groups. The average risk reduction was 34% and was smallest (25%) among women aged 35 years. The impact of hrHPV screening on the cancer risk was sensitive to the duration from cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 (CIN2/3) to cancer; a small increase in the cancer risk was estimated for women aged 35 or 40 years in case a substantial proportion of CIN2/3 showed fast progression to cancer. Our results indicate that primary hrHPV screening with a ten-yearly interval for hrHPV-negative women of age 40 and beyond will lead to a further reduction in lifetime cancer risk compared to five-yearly cytology, provided that precancerous lesions progress slowly to cancer.

We studied the health and economic effects of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing in cervical screening using a simulation model. The key data source was a Dutch longitudinal screening trial. We compared cytological testing with repeat cytology (for borderline/mildly abnormal smears) to HPV testing with cytology triage (for HPV-positive smears), combination testing (combined HPV and cytology) and cytological testing with HPV triage (for borderline/mildly abnormal smears). We varied the screening interval from 5 to 10 years. The main outcome measures were the number of cervical cancer cases, the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The base-case estimates were accompanied with ranges across 118 calibrated parameter settings (calibration criteria: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3, cancer and mortality rates). In comparison to 5-yearly cytology, 5-yearly HPV testing with cytology triage gave a reduction in the number of cancer cases of 23% (range, 9-27%). The reduction was 26% (range, 10-29%) for combination testing and 3% (range, -1 to 8%) for cytology with HPV triage. For strategies with primary HPV testing, the model also estimated a reduction in cancer cases when the screening interval was extended to 7.5 years. Five-yearly cytology with HPV triage and 5 to 7.5-yearly HPV testing with cytology triage were cost effective for the base-case settings and the majority of calibrated parameter settings (ICER below Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold of -20,000/QALY). Our model indicates that HPV testing with cytology triage is likely to be cost effective. An extension of the screening interval may be considered to control costs.