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Objective: Determinants of risk of death are highly relevant for the management strategy of individuals. We aimed to determine an algorithm for predicting risk of death in Turkish adults who have a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS)., Methods: Nine-year risk of death was estimated in 3348 middle-aged adults, followed over 8.81±4.2years. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict risk of death. Discrimination was assessed using C-statistics., Results: Death occurred in 565 subjects. In multivariable analysis, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol levels were not predictive in either sex; in women, current smoking was also not predictive. Age, presence of diabetes, systolic blood pressure ≥160mmHg and low physical activity were predictors in both sexes, beyond smoking status in men. Exclusion of coronary disease at baseline did not change risk estimates materially. Using an algorithm of the stated 7 variables showed an 11- to 18-fold spread in the absolute risk of dying among individuals in the highest than in the lowest of 4 risk score categories. C-statistics of the model using age alone was 0.790 in men, 0.808 in women (p<0.001 each), while the incorporation of 6 conventional risk factors contributed to C-index was >0.020 in males and 0.009 in females., Conclusions: In a middle-aged population with prevalent MetS, serum lipoproteins and, in women, smoking status, were not relevant for the risk of death. The contribution of conventional risk factors beyond age to estimating risk of death was modest among Turkish men, and little in women in whom autoimmune activation is operative., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Unlabelled: The role of plasma fibrinogen levels in predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS) and assessment of determinants of these levels were investigated. A total of 2234 men and women, aged 49+/-12 years, representative of Turkish adults who had plasma fibrinogen determinations, were prospectively evaluated and followed for a mean of 6.6 years. The modified Clauss method was used for assays. MetS was defined by ATPIII criteria modified for male abdominal obesity. MetS cases at baseline were excluded in prospective analyses. Median (interquartile range) fibrinogen values were 2.87 (2.29; 3.56) g/L. Fibrinogen levels predicted significantly newly developing MetS in men (RR 1.40 [95%CI 1.07; 1.83] for a 2-fold increment), after adjustment for age and smoking status, and (RR 1.32 [95%CI 0.95; 1.83] again for doubling), after additional adjustment for all 5 components of MetS. MetS was not significantly predicted by fibrinogen levels in women in either multivariable model. By regression analysis of eight covariates, not waist circumference, but systolic blood pressure, current smoking and C-reactive protein (CRP) in men, and age in women were predictors of elevated (>3.0 g/L) fibrinogen at follow-up (p<0.05 in all)., Conclusions: Plasma fibrinogen predicts MetS independently of its components in men, in contradistinction to women, and, hence, is likely one of its components. Hyperfibrinogenemia representing an inflammatory state is postulated as the underlying mechanism. Central obesity is linked to elevation in fibrinogen mainly through the mediation of blood pressure, CRP, and via being affected by cigarette smoking.

Background and Methods: We aimed to assess whether fasting plasma triglycerides independently predicted future fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a population having a high prevalence of the metabolic syndrome. In the Turkish Adult Risk Factor Study, a population-based survey, 2682 men and women 20 years of age or over with fasting triglyceride values available and free of CVD at baseline examination in 1990, were prospectively followed up till 2003/04. Triglyceride concentrations were measured by the enzymatic dry chemistry method and stratified into sex-specific quintiles. Information on the mode of death was obtained from first-degree relatives and/or health personnel of local health office. Diagnosis of coronary heart disease and stroke among survivors was based on history, physical examination of the cardiovascular system and Minnesota coding of resting electrocardiograms. A total of 120 fatal and 221 new nonfatal CVD occurred among adults (mean age 43+/-14) during a mean 9.3 years of follow-up., Results: CVD was significantly and independently predicted by the top versus the bottom fasting triglyceride quintile in logistic regression analyses when adjusted for age, sex, BMI, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, lipid-lowering medication, status of smoking and of glucose regulation (relative risk [RR] in men and all adults 2.38 and 1.79, respectively, p both <0.02). This corresponded to hazard ratios (HR) of 1.43 in men and 1.28 in men and women combined. Adjustment for HDL-cholesterol instead of total cholesterol in the same model gave also significant HRs corresponding to 1.42 in men and 1.32 in sexes combined., Conclusions: Fasting triglycerides are predictive of future CVD among men with an HR of 1.4, independent of age, diabetes, lipid-lowering medication, traditional risk factors including total cholesterol or HDL-C, in a population in which metabolic syndrome prevails. A modest independent risk increment in women did not reach significance.