Search

Forty years (1980–2019) of reanalysis data were used to investigate climatology and trends of heat stress in the Caribbean region. Represented via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a multivariate thermophysiological‐relevant parameter, the highest heat stress is found to be most frequent and geographically widespread during the rainy season (August, September, and October). UTCI trends indicate an increase of more than 0.2°C·decade−1, with southern Florida and the Lesser Antilles witnessing the greatest upward rates (0.45°C·decade−1). Correlations with climate variables known to induce heat stress reveal that the increase in heat stress is driven by increases in air temperature and radiation, and decreases in wind speed. Conditions of heat danger, as depicted by the heat index (HI), have intensified since 1980 (+1.2°C) and are found to occur simultaneously to conditions of heat stress suggesting a synergy between heat illnesses and physiological responses to heat. This work also includes the analysis of the record‐breaking 2020 heat season during which the UTCI and HI achieved above average values, indicating that local populations most likely experienced heat stress and danger higher than the ones they are used to. These findings confirm the gradual intensification of heat stress in the Caribbean and aim to provide a guidance for heat‐related policies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study considers long-term precipitation and temperature variability across the Caribbean using two gridded data sets (CRU TS 3.21 and GPCCv5). We look at trends across four different regions (Northern, Eastern, Southern and Western), for three different seasons (May to July, August to October and November to April) and for three different periods (1901-2012, 1951-2012 and 1979-2012). There are no century-long trends in precipitation in either data set, although all regions (with the exception of the Northern Caribbean) show decade-long periods of wetter or drier conditions. The most significant of these is for the Southern Caribbean region which was wetter than the 1961-1990 average from 1940 to 1956 and then drier from 1957 to 1965. Temperature in contrast shows statistically significant warming everywhere for the periods 1901-2012, 1951-2012 and for over half the area during 1979-2012. Data availability is a limiting issue over much of the region and we also discuss the reliability of the series we use in the context of what is known to be available in the CRU TS 3.21 data set. More station data have been collected but have either not been fully digitized yet or not made freely available both within and beyond the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT An index capturing the anomalies of the zonal wind at 925 hPa from 1950 to 2010 was defined to explore the relationship between the fluctuations of the Caribbean low-level jet ( CLLJ) and the main climate variability modes affecting the Intra-Americas Sea Region. El Niño Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) events, here defined using the Niño 3.4 index, are found to be the most important variability modes for the jet anomalies, in agreement with previous studies. However, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO) and the Pacific/North American ( PNA) teleconnection pattern also show significant correlations with the CLLJ anomaly index during February. The North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation ( AO) reveal a possible interaction with the jet anomalies that could be connected with the cold fronts and cold air surges arriving to the Caribbean basin from the Northern Hemisphere during winter. A composite technique is used to explain the correlations with the Pacific indexes. We found that ENSO events are connected to CLLJ anomalies by modulating the sea-level pressure ( SLP) near the east coast of the United States and the Aleutian Low. The pattern displayed by the SLP anomalies ( SLPa) is also associated with the PNA. During warm (cold) ENSO phases, negative (positive) anomalies in the SLP field over the east coast of North America produce cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulations at low levels. However, the ENSO signal in the SLPa and the PNA pattern are modulated by the phases of the PDO. Results indicate that when the ENSO and PDO are in phase (out of phase), the SLPa signal is enhanced (weakened or cancelled), affecting the CLLJ anomalies in both direction and intensity, also changing the spatial distribution of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT A workshop was held at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, in May 2012 to build capacity in climate data rescue and to enhance knowledge about climate change in the Caribbean region. Scientists brought their daily observational surface temperature and precipitation data from weather stations for an assessment of quality and homogeneity and for the calculation of climate indices helpful for studying climate change in their region. This study presents the trends in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Caribbean region for records spanning the 1961-2010 and 1986-2010 intervals. Overall, the results show a warming of the surface air temperature at land stations. In general, the indices based on minimum temperature show stronger warming trends than indices calculated from maximum temperature. The frequency of warm days, warm nights and extreme high temperatures has increased while fewer cool days, cool nights and extreme low temperatures were found for both periods. Changes in precipitation indices are less consistent and the trends are generally weak. Small positive trends were found in annual total precipitation, daily intensity, maximum number of consecutive dry days and heavy rainfall events particularly during the period 1986-2010. Correlations between indices and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation ( AMO) index suggest that temperature variability and, to a lesser extent, precipitation extremes are related to the AMO signal of the North Atlantic surface sea temperatures: stronger associations are found in August and September for the temperature indices and in June and October for some of the precipitation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a study regarding the Caribbean Low Level Jet. It discusses that the Caribbean Low Level Jet is shown to be a real and dominant climatological feature of the early summer Caribbean climate, which manifests as an intensification in the trade winds in the western Caribbean basin. The study reveals the variability in the strength and zonal extent of the Caribbean Low Level Jet which can be related to zonal sea surface temperature gradients between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the north tropical and equatorial Atlantic.

The article offers information on the climatology and the future climate change in the Caribbean region based on the global general circulation. A climatological analysis on climate variations in the Caribbean is presented, followed by discussion on climate change scenarios based on the findings from Parallel Climate Model (PCM). PCM is utilized to study the impact of the global anthropogenic carbon dioxide concentration on the Caribbean climate. Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), cloud formation and solar radiative interactions affect the volume and frequency of rainfall. A future warming is predicted to reach one degree Celsius, along with increase in rain fall during the wet season, and a possible increase in tropical storm in the region.