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The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is unique among monsoon systems that it features meridional evolution of the summer monsoon. In this study, we evaluate the performances of a Variable‐Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) regionally refined over eastern China (14 km) in reproducing the seasonal evolution of EASM precipitation over China. Compared with reference datasets, VR‐CESM shows better performance than the corresponding globally uniform coarse‐resolution model CESM (quasi‐uniform 1°), especially over western China where complex local topography exists. The northward monsoon migration is closely related to low‐level southerly flows and vertical moisture advection, which are more reasonably simulated in VR‐CESM. The four critical timings of the EASM (monsoon onset, withdrawal, peak, and duration) are also better captured in VR‐CESM than in CESM. The corresponding spatial Pearson correlation coefficients of the four critical timings with respect to reference datasets are about 0.1 higher in VR‐CESM than those in CESM. Both models are most accurate in simulating monsoon onset and least accurate at simulating the monsoon peak. The overestimated zonal thermal contrast in CESM is responsible for the earlier monsoon onset and excessive precipitation in September over the Yangtze River valley. Finer resolution in VR‐CESM, especially over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), appears to be a main factor in simulating better zonal thermal contrast and seasonal evolution of the EASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water management is a crucial issue in East Asia and is significantly influenced by climate change. Because East Asia's precipitation characteristics are varied and complex, it is necessary to implement the analysis of the future changes in precipitation on an objectively classified, specific sub‐regional level to effectively solve these problems. In this study, sub‐regions were objectively classified according to their precipitation characteristics, based on the present observations in East Asia. Additionally, the bias‐correction technique was applied to the regional climate model (RCM) to yield more reliable future precipitation predictions for the sub‐regions. We obtained the following four key results in this study. (1) The classified sub‐regions corresponded well to the observed annual precipitation distribution and adequately reflected the influence of the summer monsoon. The annual precipitation of the classified sub‐regions exhibited a decreasing trend in arid regions and an increasing trend in humid areas. (2) Because the bias‐corrected RCM was able to simulate annual precipitation reasonably, this technique was applied to future scenarios to analyse future changes in precipitation for each classified sub‐region. (3) Future annual precipitation will increase significantly in the region spanning from the western part of Southern China to the area around the Bohai Sea, while the temporal variations of the climatological daily precipitation indicated that sub‐regions under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) will be predicted an increase in second peaks during the summer. Hence, in the future, the EASM rain belt will be strengthened and its average location will move northward from its present location. (4) Because the high‐intensity extreme precipitation indices are expected to have a more considerable increase in all the classified sub‐regions, there is a need to solidify response measures against disasters that could arise from these changes in the East Asian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instrumental data indicate the occurrence of a dipolar pattern of precipitation anomalies between north China and the Yangtze River Valley (YRV), which was termed "northern drought (flood)—southern flood (drought)" scenario. It has been shown that this pattern occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). However, there are questions about whether this dipolar pattern also occurred during the entire Holocene, and the mechanism responsible. Addressing these questions is of fundamental importance for understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation in East Asian summer monsoon region. Numerous studies of north China have demonstrated that the mid‐Holocene was humid, and the early and late Holocene were dry. However, there are relatively few equivalent studies in the YRV. To this end, we conducted detailed geochemical analysis of an AMS 14C‐dated sediment core from Lake Nanyi in the YRV. Our results indicate humid periods at Lake Nanyi occurred during 11.5–8.0 ka and from 2.0 ka to the present, while dry conditions occurred during ~8.0–2.0 ka. These results, together with published records from Dajiuhu peatland and Heshang Cave, collectively indicate in the YRV, the mid‐Holocene (~8.0–3.0 ka) was dry, while the early and late Holocene were humid, which is the inverse of the pattern in north China. Thus, we conclude there was an asynchronous evolution of hydroclimatic changes between north China and the YRV during the Holocene. We interpret this dipolar pattern as the result of ENSO variations: in a La Niña‐like state, the Western Pacific Subtropical High retreated northeastward, which would enable the rainfall belt to move northward and result in increased (decreased) precipitation in north China (the YRV). Sea surface temperature records from the Pacific Ocean and model simulations support this mechanism: a La Niña‐like state in the mid‐Holocene resulted in more (less) precipitation in north China (the YRV). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is generally believed that water vapour from the North Atlantic transported by the mid‐latitude westerlies dominates precipitation variations in arid Central Asia, where monsoonal water vapour source is beyond the reach. This study reexamines water vapour sources for arid Central Asia based on daily reanalysis data. The results reveal two water vapour sources for arid Central Asia: the westerly water vapour transport from the North Atlantic and the monsoonal water vapour transport from the tropical Indian Ocean and South China Sea. The monsoonal transport includes two pathways: lower tropospheric water vapour along the eastern and northern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau from the tropical Indian Ocean and South China Sea, and middle‐upper tropospheric water vapour via the Tibetan Plateau from the tropical Indian Ocean. Precipitation variability during the monsoonal transport events explains 81% of the total variance. The monsoonal transport is related to a weakened East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) that is accompanied by persistent westward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high and increasing frequency of Mongolian anticyclone activities. The EASM has experienced a persistent weakening trend since 1958, causing an increasing contribution of the monsoonal water vapour transport and thereby enhancing summer precipitation in arid Central Asia. In particular, the monsoonal easterly water vapour has become the dominant source for arid Central Asia in the lower troposphere during the last decade. This study highlights the important role of the EASM in the wetting trend of summers in arid Central Asia during the past six decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional Climate‐Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model with a 30‐km horizontal resolution was applied to simulate the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and climate in China from 1980 to 2016. As compared with observations and reanalysis data, the model can reasonably reproduce the spatial distributions of the climatological mean atmospheric circulation and water vapour transport in East Asia, as well as the seasonal advance and retreat of EASM and rain bands. The correlation coefficient between the EASM circulation index in the simulation and reanalysis is.97. The model can well represent the geographic distributions of summer mean temperature and precipitation over most of China. However, model biases still exist, in particular the skill in the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin is relatively low. The simulated climatological mean temperature and precipitation deviations from observations may be related to the model's systematic circulation biases, with a thicker lower troposphere (i.e., higher temperature between 500 and 1,000 hPa) over most of China (except for the south and southwest) and a thinner one over the coastal oceans in summertime. Compared with the reanalysis, the model overestimates the land‐ocean thermal contrast, which causes the South Asian High shifted to the north and east, as well as the subtropical high and tropical convective activity located further north and persisted longer. Consequently, more water vapour transports northward, leading to more precipitation over North China–Northeast China and less precipitation over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basin. Therefore, the enhanced land‐ocean thermal contrast may be a major factor for the stronger EASM in the model, and corresponding precipitation and temperature biases in China. This analysis provides important information for further improving model performance in EASM simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction skill and source of the predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system are examined in this work based on four state‐of‐the‐art seasonal climate forecast models including BCC_CSM1.1, ECMWF_SYS4, NCEP_CFS2 and TCC_CPS2. The prediction of the climatology and interannual EASM pattern and the impact on the prediction are further investigated. It is noted that the four models have some skill in predicting summer rainfall in the East Asia, however, the skill is low on average and also largely regional dependence. The interannual variation of EASM measured by monsoon circulation index is well reproduced, implying that the broad‐scale feature/pattern of EASM has higher predictability than the detailed spatial variation of EASM rainfall. The possible sources of predictability of the interannual variability of EASM are associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the north Indian Ocean (NIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The correlation pattern of rainfall with the NIO SST is characterized by a tripole pattern from south to north of East Asia, which is different from the correlation distribution of the southern‐northern dipole with ENSO, suggesting that NIO SST may exert influence on the EASM independently. The major biases in climatology of EASM in the models are the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and weak monsoonal southerly over the coast of East Asia, which leads to the prediction bias of the Meiyu/Baiu/Changma (MBC) rainfall belt. The prediction of the interannual EASM pattern presents two deficiencies: too weak rainfall variability and northward shift of the dipole rainfall pattern (opposite variation between MBC and the northwestern Pacific), that may be caused by the biases of WPSH in the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Asian high (SAH) and the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) are two crucial systems affecting the summer rainfall over East Asia. Features of the relative vorticity of the SAH and its dynamic effect on zonal extension of the western NPSH (WNPSH) are investigated on interannual timescales using data diagnosis and numerical model experiments. Results show that two climatological centres of negative relative vorticity are observed along the northern flank of the SAH over the Tibetan Plateau and northern West Asia at 200 hPa during boreal summer. The relatively more intense centre over the Tibetan Plateau (TPV) shows a pronounced southeast‐northwest (SE‐NW) variation, indicating a SE‐NW shift of the SAH. When the SAH shifts southeastward, an anomalous anticyclone occurs over eastern China at 200 hPa. In the middle troposphere, this anomalous anticyclone is located over southern China and the northern South China Sea, leading to a westward extension of the WNPSH. A diagnostic analysis of the vorticity equation indicates that the negative relative vorticity anomalies at 500 hPa are mainly caused by the downward advection of the mean relative vorticity by anomalous sinking motions. When the SAH extends southeastward, intense convergence on the southeastern flank of the anomalous upper‐level anticyclone induces descending motions that cause downward advection of mean negative vorticity. Consequently, negative vorticity anomaly is formed at 500 hPa, leading to a westward extension of the WNPSH. Results from the experiments using an idealized anomalous atmospheric general circulation model further demonstrate that the upper‐level anomalous anticyclone associated with a southeastward extension of the SAH triggers an anomalous anticyclone at the middle level, causing a westward extension of the WNPSH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The abilities of three models (Climate Forecast System version 2 [CFSv2], Canadian Coupled Climate Model version 3 [CanCM3] and Canadian Coupled Climate Model version 4 [CanCM4]) in the North American Multimodel Ensemble for the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) forecast were evaluated with their 29‐year hindcast data (1982–2010). Many EASM features including monsoon precipitation centres, large‐scale monsoon circulations and monsoon onset and retreat are generally captured by the three models and their ensemble mean, and the multimodel ensemble has the best performance. Since the East Asian domain includes the tropical western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) and the subtropical continent monsoon, two well‐known monsoon indices, the WNPSM index (WNPSMI) and EASM index (EASMI), and their associated low‐level winds and precipitation anomalies are well forecasted by the models. However, the forecast performance generally decreases as the leads increase, and the performance of EASMI is not as good as that of WNPSMI. CFSv2 forecasts well at leads up to 6 months whereas the skill of CanCM3 (CanCM4) decreases rapidly when the lead increases to 2 months (3 months). The failure of CanCM3 is mainly attributed to the poor forecast of the relationship of EASMI with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Northern Indian Ocean‐western North Pacific (WNP) sea surface temperature anomaly. However, the causes of the poor forecast of CanCM4 for EASMI require further investigation. Sources of the forecast error (FE), which is the difference between model and observation for monsoon precipitation, are more significant than those of the predictability error (PE), which originates from the initial condition error, indicating that model deficiency plays a dominant role in limiting the EASM precipitation forecast. However, the PE cannot be neglected over the tropical western Pacific in CFSv2, over the WNP in CanCM3 and over the Tibetan Plateau in CanCM4. As the lead time increases, the FE does not remarkably change whereas the PE decreases significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the daily precipitation data of the Huai River basin (HRB) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1960 to 2014, the study examines the spatio‐temporal characteristics of summer extreme precipitation (SEP), explores the statistical relationship between the changes of SEP in the HRB and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and further investigates the circulation characteristics which are most conducive to extreme precipitation under different EASM backgrounds. The main results are as follows: (a) summer extreme precipitation indices (SEPI) of PNL90 and PQ90 mainly increased (although not significant) in the HRB from 1960 to 2014, and the weakening of EASM may be the reason for the upwards trend. (b) The characteristics of SEP are quite different between the north and the south of the HRB, and SEPI mainly negatively correlates with East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) in the south but positively correlates in the north. (c) Extreme precipitation may occur under both strong and weak summer monsoon backgrounds in the HRB, but the circulation configurations are different. The differences between high and low SEP are mainly associated with the intensity of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) for the weak EASM years, while the differences mainly lie in the position of WPSH for the strong EASM years. Extreme precipitation may occur under both strong and weak East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) backgrounds in the Huai River basin, but the circulation configurations are different. Four types of combinations (A, B, C, D) between summer extreme precipitation (SEP) and EASM are classified. The differences between high and low SEP mainly lie in the intensity of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) for the weak EASM years, while the differences mainly lie in the position of WPSH for the strong EASM years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a large impact on the succeeding East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variability via modulating the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclonic anomaly. This study reveals that spring northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) has a prominent modulation of the ENSO–EASM relationship. When the spring NTA SST anomalies are of the same sign as the preceding winter equatorial central‐eastern Pacific SST anomalies, the ENSO–EASM connection is strong. The connection between ENSO and EASM becomes very weak when the spring NTA and preceding winter equatorial central‐eastern Pacific SST anomalies are opposite. This result implies that it is crucial to consider the spring NTA SST status when forecasting the EASM based on the winter equatorial central‐eastern Pacific SST. The modulation of spring NTA SST anomalies on the ENSO–EASM relation is through its destructive or constructive contribution to the anomalous anticyclone over the WNP. When the spring NTA SST anomalies and the equatorial central‐eastern Pacific SST anomalies have the same (opposite) signs, the summer WNP anticyclonic anomaly generated by the ENSO was largely enhanced (weakened) by the spring NTA SST‐generated atmospheric anomalies, which result in strong (weak) influence of ENSO on the EASM variability. From the above figure, it shows that spring northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST has a pronounced modulation of the relationship between preceding ENSO and following EASM. When winter Niño3.4 SST and spring NTA SST anomalies have the same (opposite) sign, the ENSO–EASM connection is strong (weak). The modulation of spring NTA SST anomalies on the ENSO–EASM relation is through its destructive or constructive contribution to the anomalous anticyclone over the WNP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]