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At present, there are large number of articles on the impact of COVID-19, but there are only a few articles on the impact of COVID-19 and international agriculture. Agriculture product is different from other industrial products. If domestic food cannot be self-sufficient, it must be resolved through imports. This will inevitably face the dilemma between the opening up agriculture and the risk of importing COVID-19. This paper pioneered the use of entropy method, TOPSIS method and grey correlation analysis to predict the correlation between agricultural opening to the outside world and the input and spread of COVID-19. We use the correlation matrix quantifying the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and agricultural openness to deduce that there is a significant positive correlation between the flow of agricultural products caused by China’s agricultural opening-up and the spread of COVID-19, and use the proposed matrix to predict the spread risk of COVID-19 in China. The results of the empirical analysis can provide strong evidence for decision-makers to balance the risk of COVID-19 transmission with the opening of agricultural markets, and they can take this evidence into full consideration to formulate reasonable policies. This has great implications both for preventing the spread of COVID-19 and for agricultural opening-up.

The complex relationship between environmental regulation and green technology progress has always been a hot topic of research, especially in developing countries, where the impact of environmental regulation is important. Current research is mainly concerned with the impact of the single environmental regulation on technological progress and lacks study on the diversity of environmental regulations. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the heterogeneity of the effects of different types of environmental regulation on industrial green technology progress. As China’s scale of economy and pollution emissions are both large, and the government has also made great efforts in environmental regulation, this paper takes China as the example for analyses. We first use the EBM-GML method to measure the industrial green technology progress of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2018, and then apply the panel econometric model and threshold model to empirically investigate the influence of 3 types of environmental regulation. The results show that, first, the impacts of environmental regulation on industrial green technology progress are significantly different; specifically, command-based regulation has no direct significant impact, and autonomous regulation has played a positive role, and market-based regulation’s quadratic curve effect is significant, in which the cost-based and investment-based tool presents an inverted U-sharped and U-sharped, respectively. Second, there may be a weak alternative interaction among different types of environmental regulation. Third, a market-based regulatory tool has a threshold effect; with the upgrading of environmental regulation compliance, the effect of a cost-based tool is characterized by “promotion inhibition”, and that of an investment-based tool is “inhibition promotion”. Finally, the results of regional analysis are basically consistent with those of the national analysis. Based on the study, policy enlightenment is put forward to improve regional industrial green technology progress from the perspective of environmental regulation. This paper can provide a useful analytical framework for studying the relationship between environmental regulation and technological progress in a country, especially in developing countries.