1. Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: a geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia
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Arjen M. Dondorp, Shalini Nair, Peter W. Gething, Georgina S Humphreys, Carol Hopkins Sibley, Shannon Takala-Harrison, Mehul Dhorda, Tim J. Anderson, Didier Menard, Mallika Imwong, M. Abul Faiz, Frank Smithuis, Benoit Witkowski, Elizabeth A. Ashley, Charles J. Woodrow, Ric N. Price, Nicholas P. J. Day, Marina McDew-White, François Nosten, Tran Tinh Hien, Jean Marie Kindermans, Paul N. Newton, Eric P. M. Grist, Kyaw Myo Tun, Ignacio Suay Mas, Mayfong Mayxay, Richard J. Maude, Rick M. Fairhurst, Jennifer A. Flegg, Nhien T. Nguyen, Philippe J Guerin, Nicholas J. White, Sasithon Pukrittayakamee, Tin Maung Hlaing, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) (WWARN), WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN), Territoires, économie, enjeux sociétaux (LARHRA TEES), LAboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes - UMR5190 (LARHRA), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 (UJML), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 (UJML), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, University of Oxford [Oxford]-Mahidol University [Bangkok], Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Oxford [Oxford], Nuffield Department of Medicine [Oxford, UK] (Big Data Institute), Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health [Oxford, UK] (Nuffield Department of Medicine), Department of Molecular Tropical Medicine and Genetics [Bangkok, Thaïlande], Faculty of Tropical Medicine [Bangkok, Thaïlande], Mahidol University [Bangkok]-Mahidol University [Bangkok], Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Trust Research Unit (LOMWRU), Mahidol University [Bangkok]-Mahosot Hospital, Texas Biomedical Research Institute, Institut Pasteur [Paris], Shoklo Malaria Research Unit [Mae Sot, Thailand] (Faculty of Tropical Medicine), Mahidol University [Bangkok]-Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), University of Oxford [Oxford]-Mahidol University [Bangkok]-Wellcome Trust-University of Oxford [Oxford]-Wellcome Trust, Global Health Division, Menzies School of Health Research, Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine [Bangkok, Thailand] (Faculty of Tropical Medicine), Mahidol University [Bangkok], University of Maryland School of Medicine, University of Maryland System, Myanmar Oxford Clinical Research Unit [Yangon, Myanmar], Laboratoire d'épidémiologie moléculaire, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge, Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP)-Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP), Laboratory of Malaria and Vector Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases-National Institutes of Health, Université de Washington Seattle, LECEMO - Les Cultures de l'Europe Méditérranéenne Occidentale - EA 3979 (LECEMO), Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3, University of Oxford [Oxford]-Churchill Hospital Oxford Centre for Haematology, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health [Oxford, UK], University of Oxford [Oxford]-University of Oxford [Oxford], Monash University [Melbourne], Texas Biomedical Research Institute [San Antonio, TX], Dev Care Foundation [Dhaka, Bangladesh], Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit [Ho Chi Minh City] (OUCRU), Defence Services Medical Research Centre [Naypyitaw, Myanmar] (DSMRC), Médecins Sans Frontières Belgique, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP), Shoklo Malaria Research Unit [Mae Sot, Thailand] (SMRU), Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Wellcome Trust-Mahidol University [Bangkok]-University of Oxford [Oxford]-Wellcome Trust-Mahidol University [Bangkok]-University of Oxford [Oxford], Menzies School of Health Research [Australia], Charles Darwin University, Faculty of Tropical Medicine [Bangkok, Thailand], Laboratory of Malaria and Vector Research [Rockville], National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [Bethesda] (NIAID-NIH), National Institutes of Health [Bethesda] (NIH)-National Institutes of Health [Bethesda] (NIH), Department of Genome Sciences [Seattle] (GS), University of Washington [Seattle], This study was supported by the UK Department for International Development, the Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network, the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The Mahidol-University Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Programme is funded by the Wellcome Trust of Great Britain. KMT was supported by a Li Ka Shing Foundation Scholarship. MI was supported by Mahidol University. EPMG was supported by the ExxonMobile Foundation. Work at Texas Biomedical Research Institute was supported by a National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant (No. R37AI048071) to TJCA and was done in facilities constructed with support from Research Facilities Improvement Program (Grants C06 RR013556 and RR017515) from the National Center for Research Resources of the NIH., and The authors thank the four anonymous reviewers for critical review of an earlier version of this manuscript. We thank the patients enrolled in the various studies in the Mekong region.
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MESH: Geography ,Health Status ,Business, Management and Accounting(all) ,MESH: Asia, Southeastern ,Distribution (economics) ,Communicable Diseases, Emerging ,Southeast asia ,0302 clinical medicine ,Anti-Infective Agents ,[SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases ,MESH: Communicable Diseases, Emerging ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Malaria, Falciparum ,Artemisinin ,Asia, Southeastern ,MESH: Plasmodium falciparum ,MESH: Health Status ,Surveillance ,Geography ,biology ,MESH: Malaria, Falciparum ,Disease Management ,Sampling (statistics) ,Artemisinins ,humanities ,3. Good health ,Smart surveillance ,Population Surveillance ,MESH: Drug Resistance ,lcsh:R858-859.7 ,Cartography ,Computer Science(all) ,medicine.drug ,General Computer Science ,Health geography ,Plasmodium falciparum ,MESH: Anti-Infective Agents ,030231 tropical medicine ,lcsh:Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics ,MESH: Disease Management ,MESH: Population Surveillance ,03 medical and health sciences ,MESH: Artemisinins ,parasitic diseases ,medicine ,Humans ,Greater Mekong Subregion ,MESH: Humans ,business.industry ,Research ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,biology.organism_classification ,medicine.disease ,General Business, Management and Accounting ,Malaria ,Drug resistance ,business - Abstract
Background Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic ‘smart surveillance’ methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently. Methods The approach uses the ‘uncertainty’ map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling. Results The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Conclusion This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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- 2016