Search

Background Obesity rates are recognized to be at epidemic levels throughout much of the world, posing significant threats to both the health and financial security of many nations. The causes of obesity can vary but are often complex and multifactorial, and while many contributing factors can be targeted for intervention, an understanding of where these interventions are needed is necessary in order to implement effective policy. This has prompted an interest in incorporating spatial context into the analysis and modeling of obesity determinants, especially through the use of geographically weighted regression (GWR). Method This paper provides a critical review of previous GWR models of obesogenic processes and then presents a novel application of multiscale (M)GWR using the Phoenix metropolitan area as a case study. Results Though the MGWR model consumes more degrees of freedom than OLS, it consumes far fewer degrees of freedom than GWR, ultimately resulting in a more nuanced analysis that can incorporate spatial context but does not force every relationship to become local a priori. In addition, MGWR yields a lower AIC and AICc value than GWR and is also less prone to issues of multicollinearity. Consequently, MGWR is able to improve our understanding of the factors that influence obesity rates by providing determinant-specific spatial contexts. Conclusion The results show that a mix of global and local processes are able to best model obesity rates and that MGWR provides a richer yet more parsimonious quantitative representation of obesity rate determinants compared to both GWR and ordinary least squares.

Background Like many scientific fields, epidemiology is addressing issues of research reproducibility. Spatial epidemiology, which often uses the inherently identifiable variable of participant address, must balance reproducibility with participant privacy. In this study, we assess the impact of several different data perturbation methods on key spatial statistics and patient privacy. Methods We analyzed the impact of perturbation on spatial patterns in the full set of address-level mortality data from Lawrence, MA during the period from 1911 to 1913. The original death locations were perturbed using seven different published approaches to stochastic and deterministic spatial data anonymization. Key spatial descriptive statistics were calculated for each perturbation, including changes in spatial pattern center, Global Moran’s I, Local Moran’s I, distance to the k-th nearest neighbors, and the L-function (a normalized form of Ripley’s K). A spatially adapted form of k-anonymity was used to measure the privacy protection conferred by each method, and its compliance with HIPAA and GDPR privacy standards. Results Random perturbation at 50 m, donut masking between 5 and 50 m, and Voronoi masking maintain the validity of descriptive spatial statistics better than other perturbations. Grid center masking with both 100 × 100 and 250 × 250 m cells led to large changes in descriptive spatial statistics. None of the perturbation methods adhered to the HIPAA standard that all points have a k-anonymity > 10. All other perturbation methods employed had at least 265 points, or over 6%, not adhering to the HIPAA standard. Conclusions Using the set of published perturbation methods applied in this analysis, HIPAA and GDPR compliant de-identification was not compatible with maintaining key spatial patterns as measured by our chosen summary statistics. Further research should investigate alternate methods to balancing tradeoffs between spatial data privacy and preservation of key patterns in public health data that are of scientific and medical importance.

Background The potential spatial access to urban health services is an important issue in health geography, spatial epidemiology and public health. Computing geographical accessibility measures for residential areas (e.g. census tracts) depends on a type of distance, a method of aggregation, and a measure of accessibility. The aim of this paper is to compare discrepancies in results for the geographical accessibility of health services computed using six distance types (Euclidean and Manhattan distances; shortest network time on foot, by bicycle, by public transit, and by car), four aggregation methods, and fourteen accessibility measures. Methods To explore variations in results according to the six types of distance and the aggregation methods, correlation analyses are performed. To measure how the assessment of potential spatial access varies according to three parameters (type of distance, aggregation method, and accessibility measure), sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty analysis (UA) are conducted. Results First, independently of the type of distance used except for shortest network time by public transit, the results are globally similar (correlation >0.90). However, important local variations in correlation between Cartesian and the four shortest network time distances are observed, notably in suburban areas where Cartesian distances are less precise. Second, the choice of the aggregation method is also important: compared with the most accurate aggregation method, accessibility measures computed from census tract centroids, though not inaccurate, yield important measurement errors for 10% of census tracts. Third, the SA results show that the evaluation of potential geographic access may vary a great deal depending on the accessibility measure and, to a lesser degree, the type of distance and aggregation method. Fourth, the UA results clearly indicate areas of strong uncertainty in suburban areas, whereas central neighbourhoods show lower levels of uncertainty. Conclusion In order to accurately assess potential geographic access to health services in urban areas, it is particularly important to choose a precise type of distance and aggregation method. Then, depending on the research objectives, the choices of the type of network distance (according to the mode of transportation) and of a number of accessibility measures should be carefully considered and adequately justified.

Background Spatial epidemiology has been aided by advances in geographic information systems, remote sensing, global positioning systems and the development of new statistical methodologies specifically designed for such data. Given the growing popularity of these studies, we sought to review and analyze the types of spatial measurement errors commonly encountered during spatial epidemiological analysis of spatial data. Methods Google Scholar, Medline, and Scopus databases were searched using a broad set of terms for papers indexed by a term indicating location (space or geography or location or position) and measurement error (measurement error or measurement inaccuracy or misclassification or uncertainty): we reviewed all papers appearing before December 20, 2014. These papers and their citations were reviewed to identify the relevance to our review. Results We were able to define and classify spatial measurement errors into four groups: (1) pure spatial location measurement errors, including both non-instrumental errors (multiple addresses, geocoding errors, outcome aggregations, and covariate aggregation) and instrumental errors; (2) location-based outcome measurement error (purely outcome measurement errors and missing outcome measurements); (3) location-based covariate measurement errors (address proxies); and (4) Covariate-Outcome spatial misaligned measurement errors. We propose how these four classes of errors can be unified within an integrated theoretical model and possible solutions were discussed. Conclusion Spatial measurement errors are ubiquitous threat to the validity of spatial epidemiological studies. We propose a systematic framework for understanding the various mechanisms which generate spatial measurement errors and present practical examples of such errors.

Background Only very few studies have investigated the geographic distribution of psychological resilience and associated mental health outcomes after natural or man made disasters. Such information is crucial for location-based interventions that aim to promote recovery in the aftermath of disasters. The purpose of this study therefore was to investigate geographic variability of (1) posttraumatic stress (PTS) and depression in a Hurricane Sandy affected population in NYC and (2) psychological vulnerability and resilience factors among affected areas in NYC boroughs. Methods Cross-sectional telephone survey data were collected 13 to 16 months post-disaster from household residents (N = 418 adults) in NYC communities that were most heavily affected by the hurricane. The Posttraumatic Stress Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) was applied for measuring posttraumatic stress and the nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) was used for measuring depression. We applied spatial autocorrelation and spatial regimes regression analyses, to test for spatial clusters of mental health outcomes and to explore whether associations between vulnerability and resilience factors and mental health differed among New York City’s five boroughs. Results Mental health problems clustered predominantly in neighborhoods that are geographically more exposed towards the ocean indicating a spatial variation of risk within and across the boroughs. We further found significant variation in associations between vulnerability and resilience factors and mental health. Race/ethnicity (being Asian or non-Hispanic black) and disaster-related stressors were vulnerability factors for mental health symptoms in Queens, and being employed and married were resilience factors for these symptoms in Manhattan and Staten Island. In addition, parental status was a vulnerability factor in Brooklyn and a resilience factor in the Bronx. Conclusions We conclude that explanatory characteristics may manifest as psychological vulnerability and resilience factors differently across different regional contexts. Our spatial epidemiological approach is transferable to other regions around the globe and, in the light of a changing climate, could be used to strengthen the psychosocial resources of demographic groups at greatest risk of adverse outcomes pre-disaster. In the aftermath of a disaster, the approach can be used to identify survivors at greatest risk and to plan for targeted interventions to reach them.

Background Snow’s work on the Broad Street map is widely known as a pioneering example of spatial epidemiology. It lacks, however, two significant attributes required in contemporary analyses of disease incidence: population at risk and the progression of the epidemic over time. Despite this has been repeatedly suggested in the literature, no systematic investigation of these two aspects was previously carried out. Using a series of historical documents, this study constructs own data to revisit Snow’s study to examine the mortality rate at each street location and the space-time pattern of the cholera outbreak. Methods This study brings together records from a series of historical documents, and prepares own data on the estimated number of residents at each house location as well as the space-time data of the victims, and these are processed in GIS to facilitate the spatial-temporal analysis. Mortality rates and the space-time pattern in the victims’ records are explored using Kernel Density Estimation and network-based Scan Statistic, a recently developed method that detects significant concentrations of records such as the date and place of victims with respect to their distance from others along the street network. The results are visualised in a map form using a GIS platform. Results Data on mortality rates and space-time distribution of the victims were collected from various sources and were successfully merged and digitised, thus allowing the production of new map outputs and new interpretation of the 1854 cholera outbreak in London, covering more cases than Snow’s original report and also adding new insights into their space-time distribution. They confirmed that areas in the immediate vicinity of the Broad Street pump indeed suffered from excessively high mortality rates, which has been suspected for the past 160 years but remained unconfirmed. No distinctive pattern was found in the space-time distribution of victims’ locations. Conclusions The high mortality rates identified around the Broad Street pump are consistent with Snow’s theory about cholera being transmitted through contaminated water. The absence of a clear space-time pattern also indicates the water-bourne, rather than the then popular belief of air bourne, nature of cholera. The GIS data constructed in this study has an academic value and would cater for further research on Snow’s map.

Background Examining whether disease cases are clustered in space is an important part of epidemiological research. Another important part of spatial epidemiology is testing whether patients suffering from a disease are more, or less, exposed to environmental factors of interest than adequately defined controls. Both approaches involve determining the number of cases and controls (or population at risk) in specific zones. For cluster searches, this often must be done for millions of different zones. Doing this by calculating distances can lead to very lengthy computations. In this work we discuss the computational advantages of geographical grid-based methods, and introduce an open source software (FGBASE) which we have created for this purpose. Methods Geographical grids based on the Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection are well suited for spatial epidemiology because they preserve area: each cell of the grid has the same area. We describe how data is projected onto such a grid, as well as grid-based algorithms for spatial epidemiological data-mining. The software program (FGBASE), that we have developed, implements these grid-based methods. Results The grid based algorithms perform extremely fast. This is particularly the case for cluster searches. When applied to a cohort of French Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) patients, as an example, the grid based algorithms detected potential clusters in a few seconds on a modern laptop. This compares very favorably to an equivalent cluster search using distance calculations instead of a grid, which took over 4 hours on the same computer. In the case study we discovered 4 potential clusters of T1D cases near the cities of Le Havre, Dunkerque, Toulouse and Nantes. One example of environmental analysis with our software was to study whether a significant association could be found between distance to vineyards with heavy pesticide. None was found. In both examples, the software facilitates the rapid testing of hypotheses. Conclusions Grid-based algorithms for mining spatial epidemiological data provide advantages in terms of computational complexity thus improving the speed of computations. We believe that these methods and this software tool (FGBASE) will lower the computational barriers to entry for those performing epidemiological research. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1476-072X-13-46) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Malaria is a mosquito-borne parasitic disease that causes severe mortality and morbidity, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. As the vectors predominantly bite between dusk and dawn, risk of infection is determined by the abundance of P. falciparum infected mosquitoes in the surroundings of the households. Remote sensing is commonly employed to detect associations between land use/land cover (LULC) and mosquito-borne diseases. Due to challenges in LULC identification and the fact that LULC merely functions as a proxy for mosquito abundance, assuming spatially homogenous relationships may lead to overgeneralized conclusions. Methods Data on incidence of P. falciparum parasitaemia were recorded by active and passive follow-up over two years. Nine LULC types were identified through remote sensing and ground-truthing. Spatial associations of LULC and P. falciparum parasitaemia rate were described in a semi-parametric geographically weighted Poisson regression model. Results Complete data were available for 878 individuals, with an annual P. falciparum rate of 3.2 infections per person-year at risk. The influences of built-up areas (median incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.94, IQR: 0.46), forest (median IRR: 0.9, IQR: 0.51), swampy areas (median IRR: 1.15, IQR: 0.88), as well as banana (median IRR: 1.02, IQR: 0.25), cacao (median IRR: 1.33, IQR: 0.97) and orange plantations (median IRR: 1.11, IQR: 0.68) on P. falciparum rate show strong spatial variations within the study area. Incorporating spatial variability of LULC variables increased model performance compared to the spatially homogenous model. Conclusions The observed spatial variability of LULC influence in parasitaemia would have been masked by traditional Poisson regression analysis assuming a spatially constant influence of all variables. We conclude that the spatially varying effects of LULC on P. falciparum parasitaemia may in fact be associated with co-factors not captured by remote sensing, and suggest that future studies assess small-scale spatial variation of vegetation to circumvent generalised assumptions on ecological associations that may in fact be artificial. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1476-072X-13-35) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background This is the first study to describe the geographical and temporal distribution of notifiable gastrointestinal illness (NGI) in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. Understanding the distribution of NGI in space and time is important for identifying communities at high risk. Using data derived from the Northwest Territories Communicable Disease Registry (NWT CDR), a number of spatial and temporal techniques were used to explore and analyze NGI incidence from the years 1991 to 2008. Relative risk mapping was used to investigate the variation of disease risk. Scan test statistics were applied to conduct cluster identification in space, time and space-time. Seasonal decomposition of the time series was used to assess seasonal variation and trends in the data. Results There was geographic variability in the rates of NGI with higher notifications in the south compared to the north. Incidence of NGI exhibited seasonality with peaks in the fall months for most years. Two possible outbreaks were detected in the fall of 1995 and 2001, of which one coincided with a previously recognized outbreak. Overall, incidence of NGI fluctuated from 1991 to 2001 followed by a tendency for rates to decrease from 2002 to 2008. Conclusions The distribution of NGI notifications varied widely according to geographic region, season and year. While the analyses highlighted a possible bias in the surveillance data, this information is beneficial for generating hypotheses about risk factors for infection.

Background Built environment features of neighborhoods may be related to obesity among adolescents and potentially related to obesity-related health disparities. The purpose of this study was to investigate spatial relationships between various built environment features and body mass index (BMI) z-score among adolescents, and to investigate if race/ethnicity modifies these relationships. A secondary objective was to evaluate the sensitivity of findings to the spatial scale of analysis (i.e. 400- and 800-meter street network buffers). Methods Data come from the 2008 Boston Youth Survey, a school-based sample of public high school students in Boston, MA. Analyses include data collected from students who had georeferenced residential information and complete and valid data to compute BMI z-score (n = 1,034). We built a spatial database using GIS with various features related to access to walking destinations and to community design. Spatial autocorrelation in key study variables was calculated with the Global Moran’s I statistic. We fit conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and spatial simultaneous autoregressive error models that control for the spatial autocorrelation in the data as appropriate. Models were conducted using the total sample of adolescents as well as including an interaction term for race/ethnicity, adjusting for several potential individual- and neighborhood-level confounders and clustering of students within schools. Results We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the built environment features examined (Global Moran’s I most ≥ 0.60; all p = 0.001) but not in BMI z-score (Global Moran’s I = 0.07, p = 0.28). Because we found significant spatial autocorrelation in our OLS regression residuals, we fit spatial autoregressive models. Most built environment features were not associated with BMI z-score. Density of bus stops was associated with a higher BMI z-score among Whites (Coefficient: 0.029, p p Conclusion Some relationships between the built environment and adolescent BMI z-score were in the unexpected direction. Our findings overall suggest that the built environment does not explain a large proportion of the variation in adolescent BMI z-score or racial disparities in adolescent obesity. However, there are some differences by race/ethnicity that require further research among adolescents.

Background A retrospective case-control study was undertaken to examine the spatial risk factors for human brucellosis in Kampala, Uganda. Methods Information on age, sex and month of diagnosis was derived from records from plate agglutination tests undertaken at Mulago Hospital, Kampala. Information on Parishes (LC2s) where patients reside was sourced from the outpatient registration book. In-patient fracture cases were selected for use as controls using 1:1 matching based on the age, sex and month of diagnosis. The locations of cases and controls were obtained by calculating Cartesian coordinates of the centroids of Parish level (LC2) polygons and a spatial scan statistic was applied to test for disease clustering. Parishes were classified according to the level of urbanization as urban, peri-urban or rural. Results Significantly more females than males were found to show sero-positivity for brucellosis when compared with the sex ratio of total outpatients, in addition female brucellosis patients were found to be significantly older than the male patients. Spatial clustering of brucellosis cases was observed including around Mulago Hospital (radius = 6.8 km, p = 0.001). The influence of proximity to the hospital that was observed for brucellosis cases was not significantly different from that observed in the controls. The disease cluster was confounded by the different catchment areas between cases and controls. The level of urbanization was not associated with the incidence of brucellosis but living in a slum area was a significant risk factor among urban dwellers (odds ratio 1.97, 95% CI: 1.10-3.61). Conclusions Being female was observed to be a risk factor for brucellosis sero-positvity and among urban dwellers, living in slum areas was also a risk factor although the overall risk was not different among urban, peri-urban and rural areas of the Kampala economic zone.

Background Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is a major public health problem caused by various factors. It is essential to systematically investigate the epidemiological and, in particular, the ecological factors of DR-TB for its prevention and control. Studies of the ecological factors can provide information on etiology, and assist in the effective prevention and control of disease. So it is of great significance for public health to explore the ecological factors of DR-TB, which can provide guidance for formulating regional prevention and control strategies. Methods Anti-TB drug resistance data were obtained from the World Health Organization/International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (WHO/UNION) Global Project on Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance Surveillance, and data on ecological factors were collected to explore the ecological factors for DR-TB. Partial least square path modeling (PLS-PM), in combination with ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, as well as geographically weighted regression (GWR), were used to build a global and local spatial regression model between the latent synthetic DR-TB factor ("DR-TB") and latent synthetic risk factors. Results OLS regression and PLS-PM indicated a significant globally linear spatial association between "DR-TB" and its latent synthetic risk factors. However, the GWR model showed marked spatial variability across the study regions. The "TB Epidemic", "Health Service" and "DOTS (directly-observed treatment strategy) Effect" factors were all positively related to "DR-TB" in most regions of the world, while "Health Expenditure" and "Temperature" factors were negatively related in most areas of the world, and the "Humidity" factor had a negative influence on "DR-TB" in all regions of the world. Conclusions In summary, the influences of the latent synthetic risk factors on DR-TB presented spatial variability. We should formulate regional DR-TB monitoring planning and prevention and control strategies, based on the spatial characteristics of the latent synthetic risk factors and spatial variability of the local relationship between DR-TB and latent synthetic risk factors.

Background Spatial epidemiology is useful but difficult to apply in developing countries due to the low availability of digitized maps and address systems, accurate population distributions, and computational tools. A community-based mapping approach was used to demonstrate that participatory geographic information system (PGIS) techniques can provide information helpful for health and community development. Results The PGIS process allowed for the rapid determination of sectional (neighborhood) boundaries within the city of Bo, Sierra Leone. When combined with data about hospital laboratory visits, a catchment area for one hospital in Bo could be established. A survey of households from within the catchment area determined that the average population per household (about 6 individuals) was similar to that found in the 2004 census. However, we also found that the average house was inhabited by more than one household, for an average of 17.5 inhabitants per residential building, which is critical information to know when estimating population size using remote imagery that can detect and enumerate buildings. Conclusions The methods developed in this paper serve as a model for the involvement of communities in the generation of municipal maps and their application to community and health concerns.

Background Spatial cluster detection is an important tool in cancer surveillance to identify areas of elevated risk and to generate hypotheses about cancer etiology. There are many cluster detection methods used in spatial epidemiology to investigate suspicious groupings of cancer occurrences in regional count data and case-control data, where controls are sampled from the at-risk population. Numerous studies in the literature have focused on childhood leukemia because of its relatively large incidence among children compared with other malignant diseases and substantial public concern over elevated leukemia incidence. The main focus of this paper is an analysis of the spatial distribution of leukemia incidence among children from 0 to 14 years of age in Ohio from 1996–2003 using individual case data from the Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System (OCISS). Specifically, we explore whether there is statistically significant global clustering and if there are statistically significant local clusters of individual leukemia cases in Ohio using numerous published methods of spatial cluster detection, including spatial point process summary methods, a nearest neighbor method, and a local rate scanning method. We use the K function, Cuzick and Edward's method, and the kernel intensity function to test for significant global clustering and the kernel intensity function and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic in SaTScan to test for significant local clusters. Results We found some evidence, although inconclusive, of significant local clusters in childhood leukemia in Ohio, but no significant overall clustering. The findings from the local cluster detection analyses are not consistent for the different cluster detection techniques, where the spatial scan method in SaTScan does not find statistically significant local clusters, while the kernel intensity function method suggests statistically significant clusters in areas of central, southern, and eastern Ohio. The findings are consistent for the different tests of global clustering, where no significant clustering is demonstrated with any of the techniques when all age cases are considered together. Conclusion This comparative study for childhood leukemia clustering and clusters in Ohio revealed several research issues in practical spatial cluster detection. Among them, flexibility in cluster shape detection should be an issue for consideration.

Background Utilization of spatial statistics and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technologies remain underrepresented in the community-engagement literature, despite its potential role in informing community outreach efforts and in identifying populations enthusiastic to participate in biomedical and health research. Such techniques are capable not only of examining the epidemiological relationship between the environment and a disease, but can also focus limited resources and strategically inform where on the landscape outreach efforts may be optimized. Methods These analyses present several spatial statistical techniques among the HealthStreet population, a community-engaged organization with aims to link underrepresented populations to medical and social care as well as opportunities to participate in University-sponsored research. Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) and Getis-Ord Gi*(d) statistics are utilized to examine where cancer-related “hot spots” exist among minority and non-minority HealthStreet respondents within Alachua County, Florida, United States (US). Interest in research is also reported, by minority status and lifetime history of cancer. Results Overall, spatial clustering of cancer was observed to vary by minority status, suggesting disparities may exist among minorities and non-minorities in regards to where cancer is occurring. Specifically, significant hot spots of cancer were observed among non-minorities in more urban areas throughout Alachua County, Florida, US while more rural clusters were observed among minority members, specifically west and southwest of urban city limits. Conclusions These results may help focus future outreach efforts to include underrepresented populations in health research, as well as focus preventative and palliative oncological care. Further, global community engaged studies and community outreach efforts outside of the United States may use similar methods to focus limited resources and recruit underrepresented populations into health research. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1476-072X-13-39) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background The geographical structure of an epidemic is ultimately a consequence of the drivers of the epidemic and the population susceptible to the infection. The ‘know your epidemic’ concept recognizes this geographical feature as a key element for identifying populations at higher risk of HIV infection where prevention interventions should be targeted. In an effort to clarify specific drivers of HIV transmission and identify priority populations for HIV prevention interventions, we conducted a comprehensive mapping of the spatial distribution of HIV infection across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methods The main source of data for our study was the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 20 countries from SSA. We identified and compared spatial clusters with high and low numbers of HIV infections in each country using Kulldorff spatial scan test. The test locates areas with higher and lower numbers of HIV infections than expected under spatial randomness. For each identified cluster, a likelihood ratio test was computed. A P-value was determined through Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the statistical significance of each cluster. Results Our results suggest stark geographic variations in HIV transmission patterns within and across countries of SSA. About 14% of the population in SSA is located in areas of intense HIV epidemics. Meanwhile, another 16% of the population is located in areas of low HIV prevalence, where some behavioral or biological protective factors appear to have slowed HIV transmission. Conclusions Our study provides direct evidence for strong geographic clustering of HIV infection across SSA. This striking pattern of heterogeneity at the micro-geographical scale might reflect the fact that most HIV epidemics in the general population in SSA are not far from their epidemic threshold. Our findings identify priority geographic areas for HIV programming, and support the need for spatially targeted interventions in order to maximize the impact on the epidemic in SSA.

Background Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV) is an alphavirus with high pathogenicity in both humans and horses. Florida continues to have the highest occurrence of human cases in the USA, with four fatalities recorded in 2010. Unlike other states, Florida supports year-round EEEV transmission. This research uses GIS to examine spatial patterns of documented horse cases during 2005–2010 in order to understand the relationships between habitat and transmission intensity of EEEV in Florida. Methods Cumulative incidence rates of EEE in horses were calculated for each county. Two cluster analyses were performed using density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN). The first analysis was based on regional clustering while the second focused on local clustering. Ecological associations of EEEV were examined using compositional analysis and Euclidean distance analysis to determine if the proportion or proximity of certain habitats played a role in transmission. Results The DBSCAN algorithm identified five distinct regional spatial clusters that contained 360 of the 438 horse cases. The local clustering resulted in 18 separate clusters containing 105 of the 438 cases. Both the compositional analysis and Euclidean distance analysis indicated that the top five habitats positively associated with horse cases were rural residential areas, crop and pastureland, upland hardwood forests, vegetated non-forested wetlands, and tree plantations. Conclusions This study demonstrates that in Florida tree plantations are a focus for epizootic transmission of EEEV. It appears both the abundance and proximity of tree plantations are factors associated with increased risk of EEE in horses and therefore humans. This association helps to explain why there is are spatially distinct differences in the amount of EEE horse cases across Florida.

Background A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. Results This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. Conclusions The GAM permutation testing methods provide a regression-based alternative to the spatial scan statistic. Across all hypotheses examined in this research, the GAM methods had competing or greater power estimates and sensitivities exceeding that of the spatial scan statistic.

Background: Cluster detection is an important part of spatial epidemiology because it can help identifying environmental factors associated with disease and thus guide investigation of the aetiology of diseases. In this article we study three methods suitable for detecting local spatial clusters: (1) a spatial scan statistic (SaTScan), (2) generalized additive models (GAM) and (3) Bayesian disease mapping (BYM). We conducted a simulation study to compare the methods. Seven geographic clusters with different shapes were initially chosen as high-risk areas. Different scenarios for the magnitude of the relative risk of these areas as compared to the normal risk areas were considered. For each scenario the performance of the methods were assessed in terms of the sensitivity, specificity, and percentage correctly classified for each cluster. Results: The performance depends on the relative risk, but all methods are in general suitable for identifying clusters with a relative risk larger than 1.5. However, it is difficult to detect clusters with lower relative risks. The GAM approach had the highest sensitivity, but relatively low specificity leading to an overestimation of the cluster area. Both the BYM and the SaTScan methods work well. Clusters with irregular shapes are more difficult to detect than more circular clusters. Conclusion: Based on our simulations we conclude that the methods differ in their ability to detect spatial clusters. Different aspects should be considered for appropriate choice of method such as size and shape of the assumed spatial clusters and the relative importance of sensitivity and specificity. In general, the BYM method seems preferable for local cluster detection with relatively high relative risks whereas the SaTScan method appears preferable for lower relative risks. The GAM method needs to be tuned (using cross-validation) to get satisfactory results.

Background Childhood cancer is the main cause of disease-related death in children in Spain. Although little is known about the etiology, environmental factors are potential explanations for a fraction of the cases. Previous studies have shown pesticides to be associated with childhood cancer. The difficulty of collecting personal environmental exposure data is an important limitation; this lack of information about pesticides motivates the development of new methods to subrogate this exposure. We developed a crop exposure index based on geographic information to study the relationship between exposure to different types of crops and risk of childhood tumors. Methods We conducted a population-based case–control study of childhood cancer covering 3350 cases and 20,365 controls in two Spanish regions. We used CORINE Land Cover to obtain data about agricultural land use. We created a 1 km buffer around every child and calculated the percentage of crop surface within the buffer (Global Crop Index) for total crops and for individual types of crops. We fitted mixed multiple unconditional logistic regression models by diagnostic group. Results We found excess of risk among children living in the proximity of crops. For total crops our results showed excesses of risk for almost all diagnostic groups and increasing risk with increasing crop index value. Analyses by region and individual type of crop also showed excess of risk. Conclusion The results suggest that living in the proximity of cultivated land could be a risk factor for several types of cancer in children. This study was funded by Spain’s Health Research Fund (Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria—FIS 12/01416) and Scientific Foundation of the Spanish Association Against Cancer (Fundación Científica de la Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer (AECC)—EVP-1178/14). Sí

Disease prevalence models have been widely used to estimate health, lifestyle and disability characteristics for small geographical units when other data are not available. Yet, knowledge is often lacking about how to make informed decisions around the specification of such models, especially regarding spatial assumptions placed on their covariance structure. This paper is concerned with understanding processes of spatial dependency in unexplained variation in chronic morbidity. 2011 UK census data on limiting long-term illness (LLTI) is used to look at the spatial structure in chronic morbidity across England and Wales. The variance and spatial clustering of the odds of LLTI across local authority districts (LADs) and middle layer super output areas are measured across 40 demographic cross-classifications. A series of adjacency matrices based on distance, contiguity and migration flows are tested to examine the spatial structure in LLTI. Odds are then modelled using a logistic mixed model to examine the association with district-level covariates and their predictive power. The odds of chronic illness are more dispersed than local age characteristics, mortality, hospitalisation rates and chance alone would suggest. Of all adjacency matrices, the three-nearest neighbour method is identified as the best fitting. Migration flows can also be used to construct spatial weights matrices which uncover non-negligible autocorrelation. Once the most important characteristics observable at the LAD-level are taken into account, substantial spatial autocorrelation remains which can be modelled explicitly to improve disease prevalence predictions. Systematic investigation of spatial structures and dependency is important to develop model-based estimation tools in chronic disease mapping. Spatial structures reflecting migration interactions are easy to develop and capture autocorrelation in LLTI. Patterns of spatial dependency in the geographical distribution of LLTI are not comparable across ethnic groups. Ethnic stratification of local health information is needed and there is potential to further address complexity in prevalence models by improving access to disaggregated data.

Background DED rate maps from diverse regions may allow us to understand world-wide spreading pattern of the disease. Only few studies compared the prevalence of DED between geographical regions in non-spatial context. Therefore, we examined the spatial epidemiological pattern of DED prevalence in South Korea using a nationally representative sample. Methods We analyzed 16,431 Korean adults aged 30 years or older of the 5th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. DED was defined as previously diagnosed by an ophthalmologist as well as symptoms experienced. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to assess the spatial pattern in the prevalence of DED, and effects of environmental factors. Results Among seven metropolitan cities and nine provinces, three metropolitan cities located in the southeast of Korea revealed the highest prevalence of DED. After adjusting for sex, age and survey year, people living in urban areas had higher risk of having DED. Adjusted odds ratio for having previously diagnosed DED was 1.677 (95% CI 1.299-2.166) for metropolitan cities and 1.580 (95% CI 1.215-2.055) for other cities compared to rural areas. Corresponding odds ratio for presenting DED symptoms was 1.388 (95% CI 1.090-1.766) for metropolitan cities and 1.271 (95% CI 0.999-1.617) for other cities. Lower humidity and longer sunshine duration were significantly associated with DED. Among air pollutants, SO2 was associated with DED, while NO2, O3, CO, and PM10 were not. Conclusion Our findings suggest that prevalence of DED can be affected by the degree of urbanization and environmental factors such as humidity and sunshine duration.

Background Geocoding methods vary among spatial epidemiology studies. Errors in the geocoding process and differential match rates may reduce study validity. We compared two geocoding methods using 8,157 Washington State addresses. The multi-stage geocoding method implemented by the state health department used a sequence of local and national reference files. The single-stage method used a single national reference file. For each address geocoded by both methods, we measured the distance between the locations assigned by each method. Area-level characteristics were collected from census data, and modeled as predictors of the discordance between geocoded address coordinates. Results The multi-stage method had a higher match rate than the single-stage method: 99% versus 95%. Of 7,686 addresses were geocoded by both methods, 96% were geocoded to the same census tract by both methods and 98% were geocoded to locations within 1 km of each other by the two methods. The distance between geocoded coordinates for the same address was higher in sparsely populated and low poverty areas, and counties with local reference files. Conclusion The multi-stage geocoding method had a higher match rate than the single-stage method. An examination of differences in the location assigned to the same address suggested that study results may be most sensitive to the choice of geocoding method in sparsely populated or low-poverty areas.

Background Testing for clustering at multiple ranges within a single dataset is a common practice in spatial epidemiology. It is not documented whether this approach has an impact on the type 1 error rate. Methods We estimated the family-wise error rate (FWE) for the difference in Ripley’s K functions test, when testing at an increasing number of ranges at an alpha-level of 0.05. Case and control locations were generated from a Cox process on a square area the size of the continental US (≈3,000,000 mi2). Two thousand Monte Carlo replicates were used to estimate the FWE with 95% confidence intervals when testing for clustering at one range, as well as 10, 50, and 100 equidistant ranges. Results The estimated FWE and 95% confidence intervals when testing 10, 50, and 100 ranges were 0.22 (0.20 - 0.24), 0.34 (0.31 - 0.36), and 0.36 (0.34 - 0.38), respectively. Conclusions Testing for clustering at multiple ranges within a single dataset inflated the FWE above the nominal level of 0.05. Investigators should construct simultaneous critical envelopes (available in spatstat package in R), or use a test statistic that integrates the test statistics from each range, as suggested by the creators of the difference in Ripley’s K functions test.