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Some studies on the impact of traditional land use factors on traffic crashes do not take into account the limitations of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scale. To overcome these limitations this study presents a systematic method based on multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), which considers spatial heterogeneity and spatial scale differences of different influencing factors, to explore the influence of reclassified points-of-interest (POI) on traffic crashes occurring on weekdays and weekends. Experiments were conducted on 442 communities in Hankou, Wuhan, and the performance of the proposed method was compared against traditional methods based on ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial lag model (SLM), spatial error model (SEM), and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The experiments show that the proposed method yielded the best fitness of models and more accurate model results of local coefficient estimates. The highlights of the results are as follows: There are differences in the scale of the predictor variables. Residential POI, scenic POI, and transportation POI have a global effect on traffic crashes. Commercial service POI and industrial POI affects traffic crashes at the regional scale, while public service POI affects crashes at the local scale. The local coefficient estimates from residential POI and scenic POI have little impact on traffic crashes. During weekdays, more transportation POI in the entire study area leads to more traffic crashes. While on weekends, transportation POI has a significant positive effect on crashes only in some communities. The local coefficient estimates for industrial POI vary at different periods. Commercial service POI and public service POI may increase the risk of crashes in some communities, which can be observed on weekdays and weekends. Exploring the influence of POI on traffic crashes at different periods is helpful for traffic management strategies and in reducing traffic crashes.

The outbreak of COVID-19 has constantly exposed health care workers (HCWs) around the world to a high risk of infection. To more accurately discover the infection differences among high-risk occupations and institutions, Hubei Province was taken as an example to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of HCWs at different scales by employing the chi-square test and fitting distribution. The results indicate (1) the units around the epicenter of the epidemic present lognormal distribution, and the periphery is Poisson distribution. There is a clear dividing line between lognormal and Poisson distribution in terms of the number of HCWs infections. (2) The infection rates of different types of HCWs at multiple geospatial scales are significantly different, caused by the spatial heterogeneity of the number of HCWs. (3) With the increase of HCWs infection rate, the infection difference among various HCWs also gradually increases and the infection difference becomes more evident on a larger scale. The analysis of the multi-scale infection rate and statistical distribution characteristics of HCWs can help government departments rationally allocate the number of HCWs and personal protective equipment to achieve distribution on demand, thereby reducing the mental and physical pressure and infection rate of HCWs.

As communication technology and smartphones develop, many indoor positioning applications based on Bluetooth low energy (BLE) beacons have emerged. However, in a complex BLE network, it can be challenging to select the optimal reference beacon, and accurate positioning becomes difficult. Fortunately, if the BLE network is displayed on a map, we can intuitively grasp the structure and density of the beacons in each area, which is important information for accurate positioning. Therefore, in this study we developed a map-aided indoor positioning algorithm to model the relationship between beacons in the positioning area in a parking lot. Specifically, the algorithm split all beacons into multiple cell areas to find the optimal reference beacon in that area. Then, the optimal reference beacon is used to find the preferred reference beacons among the real-time beacons. Finally, the positioning results were calculated and evaluated according to the preferred beacons. According to the results, our method can optimize the selection of reference beacons in different areas. The average positioning accuracy was 2.09 m and the results can be scored accurately. The results verify that our algorithm can effectively use map information to guide the selection of reference beacons in complex environments.

A contextual effects model, built based on Bayesian spatial modeling strategy, was used to investigate contextual effects on neighborhood burglary risks in Wuhan, China. The contextual effects denote the impact of the upper-level area on the lower-level units of analysis. These effects are often neglected in Bayesian spatial crime analysis. The contextual effects model accounts for the effects of independent variables, overdispersion, spatial autocorrelation, and contextual effects. Both the contextual effects model and the conventional Bayesian spatial model were fitted to our data. Results showed the two models had almost the same deviance information criterion (DIC). Furthermore, they identified the same set of significant independent variables and gave very similar estimates for burglary risks. Nonetheless, the contextual effects model was preferred in the sense that it provides insights into contextual effects on crime risks. Based on the contextual effects model and the map decomposition technique, we identified, worked out, and mapped the relative contribution of the neighborhood characteristics and contextual effects on the overall burglary risks. The research contributes to the increasing literature on modeling crime data by Bayesian spatial approaches.

As a major social issue during urban development, crime is closely related to socioeconomic, geographic, and environmental factors. Traditional crime prediction models reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of crime risks, but usually ignore the environmental context of the geographic areas where crimes occur. Therefore, it is difficult to enhance the spatial accuracy of crime prediction. We propose the use of anisotropic diffusion to include environmental factors of the evaluated geographic area in the traditional crime prediction model, thereby aiming to predict crime occurrence at a finer scale regarding spatiotemporal aspects and environmental similarity. Under different evaluation criteria, the average prediction accuracy of the proposed method is 28.8%, improving prediction accuracy by 77.5%, as compared to the traditional methods. The proposed method can provide strong policing support in terms of conducting targeted hotspot policing and fostering sustainable community development.

A critical issue in the geography of crime is the quantitative analysis of the spatial distribution of crimes which usually changes over time. In this paper, we use the concept of exchange mobility across different time periods to determine the spatial distribution of the theft rate in the city of Wuhan, China, in 2016. To this end, we use a newly-developed spatial dynamic indicator, the Local Indicator of Mobility Association (LIMA), which can detect differences in the spatial distribution of theft rate rankings over time from a distributional dynamics perspective. Our results provide a scientific reference for the evaluation of the effects of crime prevention efforts and offer a decision-making tool to enhance the application of temporal and spatial analytical methods.

Most studies of spatial colocation patterns of crime and land-use features in geographical information science and environmental criminology employ global measures, potentially obscuring spatial inhomogeneity. This study investigated the relationships of three types of crime with 22 types of land-use in Wuhan, China. First, global colocation patterns were examined. Then, local colocation patterns were examined based on the recently-proposed local colocation quotient, followed by a detailed comparison of the results. Different types of crimes were encouraged or discouraged by different types of land-use features with varying intensity, and the local colocation patterns demonstrated spatial inhomogeneity.

The prediction of suspect location enables proactive experiences for crime investigations and offers essential intelligence for crime prevention. However, existing studies have failed to capture the complex social location transition patterns of suspects and lack the capacity to address the issue of data sparsity. This paper proposes a novel location prediction model called CMoB (Crime Multi-order Bayes model) based on the spatiotemporal semantics to enhance the prediction performance. In particular, the model groups suspects with similar spatiotemporal semantics as one target suspect. Then, their mobility data are applied to estimate Markov transition probabilities of unobserved locations based on a KDE (kernel density estimating) smoothing method. Finally, by integrating the total transition probabilities, which are derived from the multi-order property of the Markov transition matrix, into a Bayesian-based formula, it is able to realize multi-step location prediction for the individual suspect. Experiments with the mobility dataset covering 210 suspects and their 18,754 location records from January to June 2012 in Wuhan City show that the proposed CMoB model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for suspect location prediction in the context of data sparsity.

A multivariate Bayesian spatial modeling approach was used to jointly model the counts of two types of crime, i.e., burglary and non-motor vehicle theft, and explore the geographic pattern of crime risks and relevant risk factors. In contrast to the univariate model, which assumes independence across outcomes, the multivariate approach takes into account potential correlations between crimes. Six independent variables are included in the model as potential risk factors. In order to fully present this method, both the multivariate model and its univariate counterpart are examined. We fitted the two models to the data and assessed them using the deviance information criterion. A comparison of the results from the two models indicates that the multivariate model was superior to the univariate model. Our results show that population density and bar density are clearly associated with both burglary and non-motor vehicle theft risks and indicate a close relationship between these two types of crime. The posterior means and 2.5% percentile of type-specific crime risks estimated by the multivariate model were mapped to uncover the geographic patterns. The implications, limitations and future work of the study are discussed in the concluding section.

The prediction of travel times is challenging because of the sparseness of real-time traffic data and the intrinsic uncertainty of travel on congested urban road networks. We propose a new gradient–boosted regression tree method to accurately predict travel times. This model accounts for spatiotemporal correlations extracted from historical and real-time traffic data for adjacent and target links. This method can deliver high prediction accuracy by combining simple regression trees with poor performance. It corrects the error found in existing models for improved prediction accuracy. Our spatiotemporal gradient–boosted regression tree model was verified in experiments. The training data were obtained from big data reflecting historic traffic conditions collected by probe vehicles in Wuhan from January to May 2014. Real-time data were extracted from 11 weeks of GPS records collected in Wuhan from 5 May 2014 to 20 July 2014. Based on these data, we predicted link travel time for the period from 21 July 2014 to 25 July 2014. Experiments showed that our proposed spatiotemporal gradient–boosted regression tree model obtained better results than gradient boosting, random forest, or autoregressive integrated moving average approaches. Furthermore, these results indicate the advantages of our model for urban link travel time prediction.

Taxi trajectories reflect human mobility over a road network. Pick-up and drop-off locations in different time periods represent origins and destinations of trips, respectively, demonstrating the spatiotemporal characteristics of human behavior. Each trip can be viewed as a displacement in the random walk model, and the distribution of extracted trips shows a distance decay effect. To identify the spatial similarity of trips at a finer scale, this paper investigates the distribution of trips through topic modeling techniques. Firstly, trip origins and trip destinations were identified from raw GPS data. Then, different trips were given semantic information, i.e., link identification numbers with a semantic enrichment process. Each taxi trajectory was composed of a series of trip destinations corresponding to the same taxi. Subsequently, each taxi trajectory was analogous to a document consisting of different words, and all taxi’s trajectories could be regarded as document corpora, enabling a semantic analysis of massive trip destinations. Finally, we obtained different trip destination topics reflecting the spatial similarity and regional property of human mobility through LDA topic model training. The effectiveness of this approach was illustrated by a case study using a large dataset of taxi trajectories collected from 2 to 8 June 2014 in Wuhan, China.

A Bayesian random effects modeling approach was used to examine the influence of neighborhood characteristics on burglary risks in Jianghan District, Wuhan, China. This random effects model is essentially spatial; a spatially structured random effects term and an unstructured random effects term are added to the traditional non-spatial Poisson regression model. Based on social disorganization and routine activity theories, five covariates extracted from the available data at the neighborhood level were used in the modeling. Three regression models were fitted and compared by the deviance information criterion to identify which model best fit our data. A comparison of the results from the three models indicates that the Bayesian random effects model is superior to the non-spatial models in fitting the data and estimating regression coefficients. Our results also show that neighborhoods with above average bar density and department store density have higher burglary risks. Neighborhood-specific burglary risks and posterior probabilities of neighborhoods having a burglary risk greater than 1.0 were mapped, indicating the neighborhoods that should warrant more attention and be prioritized for crime intervention and reduction. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed in our concluding section.

Indoor emergency response plays a critically important role in disaster management for cities, which must consider the evacuation of people in a dynamic indoor environment. The spatial model is the foundation for the specific analysis of indoor emergency responses, such as evacuations. The current spatial model for evacuation has three primary pitfalls: (1) it primarily focuses on static spatial information, such as rooms, doors, and windows, and lacks dynamic information, such as events and sensors; (2) it mainly focuses on the horizontal space and the static scene and lacks a multi-story component that considers the different properties of stairs compared to planar areas; and (3) it places emphasis on the indoor navigation calculation with a 2D/3D network, which lacks individual properties that can support more complicated analysis, such as congestion and stagnation. In this paper, we propose a dynamic indoor field model with three typical characteristics. (1) It includes not only static information but also dynamic information, such as outdoor and indoor building geometry, sensors, fire spread, and personnel behavior. (2) It supports multi-story buildings from the macro level (building level and floor level) to the micro level (room level and individual level) based on horizontal and vertical indoor space. (3) It supports spatial calculations based on a three-dimensional space grid and can analyze potential congestion and stagnation during evacuation. We design a corresponding evacuation method that supports individual evacuation route finding and evacuation assessment. We perform a series of analyses of the applicability of the proposed model and the efficiency of the designed evacuation method based on multi-story evacuation studies. The simulation includes a total evacuation population exceeding 7000 individuals, and the analysis suggests that the new model and algorithm are effective in planning indoor emergency routes that avoid potential congestion or stagnation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]