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This paper is the first in a series of studies generalizing the Map of Expected Earthquakes (MEE) medium-term earthquake forecast method and analyzing the prospects for its further improvement. Over the past 35 years, the MEE method has been used in seismically active regions around the world with different tectonic conditions and seismic regimes. The average prognostic efficiency of the algorithm was shown to be 2.5 times higher than for random guessing. The MEE can be further improved and upgraded. The new methods of data processing to be implemented into the upgraded MEE will significantly increase the amount of analyzed data, take into account the specific signs of the seismic process at different depths, use lineament–domain–focal (LDF) models of the structure of seismically active zones as stationary prognostic criteria, and build three-dimensional distributions of the probability of strong earthquakes. The improvement will involve an expansion of the list of used seismological precursors that have a physically justified link with the earthquake preparation process and the development of formalized techniques for identifying these precursors in the prognostic practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider some characteristics of seismicity in the region of Southwest Alaska. The aftershock zones of the Simeonof (July 22, 2020, Mw = 7.8) and Chignik (July 29, 2021, Mw = 8.2) earthquakes are identified. The characteristics of ring-shaped seismicity structures, which formed in a few decades prior to the Chignik earthquake, are described. The location and magnitude of a large event, which could be prepared to the east of the Simeonof earthquake rupture zone, was predicted in (Kopnichev and Sokolova, 2021a) based on the parameters of these structures. An estimate of the expected magnitude (Mw = 8.2 ± 0.2) was obtained using correlation dependences between the parameters of ring-shaped structures and the magnitudes of large and great earthquakes that occurred in the East Pacific region. This forecast, which was made on the basis of the data obtained prior to October 21, 2020, was presented in the mentioned paper, which was accepted for publication before July 29, 2021. We consider possible changes of the parameters of ring-shaped structures immediately prior to the Chignik earthquake and discuss geodynamic processes that can lead to the formation of ring-shaped structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A destructive earthquake, especially if it occurs in areas of high seismic risk, in the form of certain factors, has a significant impact on the environment, including biodiversity. These factors (earthquake effects) are determined by the strength of the earthquake (manifestations of intensity on the earth's surface), local conditions (geomorphological, geological structure, level of urbanization and seismic risk, etc.), disaster-zone recovery processes (fast and effective recovery, localization and prevention of secondary consequences, environmental protection, state opportunities and political decisions, etc.). It is clear that these three important basic conditions of effects are different in different seismic regions and countries, which means that the impact of an earthquake on the environment is different. To consider the features and factors of the impact of an earthquake on the environment, the 1988 Spitak earthquake—one of the most detailed and comprehensively studied earthquakes in the world—was taken as a test object. The main purpose of this article is to highlight in more detail and more fully the possible natural and human factors of the impact of a strong earthquake on the environment and predict the extent of these impacts. Thirty-six major earthquake factors affecting the environment have been identified, which are conditionally divided into three main groups according to the time of formation and genesis: (a) purely seismic, (b) secondary seismic, and (c) post seismic. The paper also attempts to assess possible changes in these factors depending on global warming and a decrease in precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The morphostructures and paleoseismicity of the southern slope of the Kungei Ala-Too Range (Northern Tien Shan) have been studied. It has been found that the main seismogenic structures in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene were adyr (foothill) faults, that is, thrusts, strike-slips, and normal dips. With a general thrusting of block folds of the basement southwards (toward the Issyk-Kul Basin), there are also northward-moving underthrusts. The past seismic activity along the adyr faults is expressed by single seismogenic scarps, as well as by stair-like series of alluvial-proluvial and fluvioglacial surfaces, upthrown in the hanging walls of faults. In addition to the easily identifiable vertical component of slips along the faults, we have also identified significant horizontal slips, which often greatly exceed the vertical ones. In addition, a unique structure, that is, a neotectonic ramp graben bounded from the south and north by oppositely directed thrusts, was studied on the slope of the Kungei Range. The mentioned faults were also studied by trenching. It was found that in the middle–second half of the Holocene three strong morphogenetic seismic events occurred on the South Tegerek adyr fault and three strong earthquakes occurred on the North Tegerek adyr fault. The ages of four strong earthquakes were determined by the radiocarbon method. The maximum ages of the first three events are 3970–3755 BC, 220–405 AD, and 1380–1450 AD, while the minimum age of the last event is 1720–1815 AD. The magnitudes of historical and paleoearthquakes that occurred on the studied adyr faults range from M = 6.6–6.9 ± 0.5 (South Tegerek fault) to M = 6.8–7.4 ± 0.5 (Kultor adyr fault). Seismic events of similar magnitudes lead to deformations of the earth's surface and in building constructions, which can be estimated on a macroseismic scale at I ≥ IX. Our data obtained in this study can be used for a comparative analysis of similar post-platform orogens in Russia (e.g., Altay and Sayan mountains), as well as in compiling the new general seismic zoning map for the Kyrgyz Republic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data on the stress–strain state of the Earth's crust obtained by precision observations were studied using strain-gage analysis based on the geometric theory of deformation. Ground-based optical distance observations were made on one of the geodynamic polygons in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky to calculate the major axes of compression and tension. Out of ten baselines, four variants of the strain-gauge rosette were taken to calculate the invariant characteristics of deformation from measured displacements of the Earth's surface. The strain-gage analysis of the observation results made it possible to determine the main deformations and calculate the angle between the dominant loading axis and the shortening axis. Two sources of impact were proposed as factors that specify the dominant loading axis: magmatism (nearby active volcanoes) and the subduction zone (the impact of the subducting Pacific Plate). Since the region is seismically active, the analysis involved strong (M > 5.5) earthquakes to identify a possible relationship between earthquakes and deformation characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our archeoseismological investigations in the Episcopal basilica in Varna have revealed signs of seismic deformations in its walls: numerous shifts, tilts, and rotations of the wall parts around the vertical axis, as well as subvertical through-going joints cutting several stone blocks. A cluster of (at least) three seismic events occurred for a hundred years (from the early 5th to the early 6th centuries AD). Judging by kinematic indicators in the basilica structures built of high-quality stone blocks, the source of seismic motions was located north-northeast of the basilica. Strong seismic oscillations propagated apparently from the southwest. The seismic sources were along seismically active faults localized north and south of Varna. The local seismic intensity of seismic oscillations could reach Il ≤ 9 on MSK-64 scale. The intensity of the seismic oscillations increased due to unfavorable ground conditions at the location of the basilica. These data should be taken into account when assessing the seismic hazard assessment of Varna to build a new map of seismic zoning of northeastern Bulgaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]