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Abstract—The paper presents the results of many years of research on the compilation of a consolidated, refined, unified earthquake catalog for the western sector of the Russian Arctic for the entire instrumental observation period, in particular for the period from 1908 to 2020. The catalog includes data on recent seismicity in areas previously unavailable for detailed seismic monitoring. Based on the results of the study, we were able to more accurately determine the spatial distribution of seismicity in the region and compare the instrumental data with parameters of lineament-domain-focal (LDF) models of the General Seismic Zoning maps (GSZ, from Russian term abbreviated as OSR)—OSR-97 and OSR-2016. In the western sector of the Russian Arctic, the highest seismicity is observed in the continent-ocean transition zone, in the Belyi (Kvitøya) Island, Novaya Zemlya and Severnaya Zemlya archipelagos. The very shelf of the Barents and Kara Seas is characterized by rare and scattered seismicity. The configuration, the maximum possible magnitudes, and the depths of the seismogenic layers in the LDF models of OSR-97 and OSR-2016 maps are not always consistent with the instrumental data and need a correction. The consolidated refined earthquake catalog can be used as a basis for the further research aimed at seismic hazard assessment of the territory, construction of geodynamic models, and study of the stress-strain state of the Earth's crust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The paper presents the results of a study showing that anomalies in the seismic regime parameters before earthquakes of various magnitudes occur in stages. The occurrence in stages means the correlation between the times of formation and development of anomalies in various seismic regime parameters. Earthquakes in regions with two general types of tectonics are selected for analysis: in the subduction zone (Kamchatka and Japan) and in the rift zone (Iceland). The selection of regions is primarily based on the availability and quality of regional seismic catalogs. GR b-value and the composite parameter known as the RTL are used as the seismic regime parameters. The detection of spatiotemporal anomalies before the selected earthquakes is based on the known "precursory patterns" of the seismic regime parameters. Comparing the durations of the detected anomalies shows that the anomalies of b-value generally occur earlier than the RTL anomalies. Possible reasons why the anomalies occur in stages are suggested. In the vicinity of the studied earthquakes, a change in the seismogenic rupture concentration parameter within the corresponding seismic cycles is also estimated. Comparing the times at which the detected seismic regime anomalies occur with the values of the seismogenic rupture concentration parameter corresponding to these times shows that the formation of seismic regime anomalies occurs at a stage when the system of seismogenic ruptures accumulated during the seismic cycle has almost reached its critical value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The paper addresses the problems associated with the maximum earthquakes in a seismically active region. Pisarenko and Rodkin (2009; 2010; 2015) proposed an alternative to the ambiguously determined parameter of the maximum regional magnitude Mmax in the form of a clearly defined and statistically substantiated parameter of the maximum possible magnitude of an earthquake in a given region on a given future time interval T. In this work, we study the statistical characteristics of this parameter—quantiles with a given confidence level q. For the first time, the estimates for the bias, standard deviation, and root mean square deviation of these quantiles are conducted on a large set (1000) of independent samples (synthetic catalogs) with known distribution law. This allowed us to compare the true accuracy of the resulting estimates with that obtained in the case of using one catalog for which the distribution law is not known. The real efficiency of the quantile estimates is assessed from the examples with the exact known quantile values, and stability and robustness of these quantiles as an informative and important characteristic of seismic risk is demonstrated. The conducted comparisons make it possible to estimate the scatter of the quantiles in the region of large times T and with very high confidence levels q. The quantile estimates of the maximum possible events in a future time interval are substantially more robust at a stronger downward bend of the frequency–magnitude graph. A relationship is derived between the quantiles of a single earthquake and the quantiles of a maximum earthquake in the future time interval T. This relationship establishes the equivalence between the length of interval T and the level of significance (reliability) q, which in the case of heavy-tailed distributions should be taken into account in seismic risk assessment. The statistical analysis is carried out using two different methods of parameter estimation: by maximum likelihood estimation and by Bayesian approach. Both methods proved to be approximately equally efficient. Based on these methods, it is concluded that the estimate of the long-term seismic hazard for the regions with a distinctly pronounced downward bend of the frequency–magnitude graph is fairly stable and robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—To obtain realistic and correct estimates of seismic effects in the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ), a ground motion prediction equation has been developed based on the records of local earthquakes (magnitudes mb ~ 3.4–5.5, hypocentral distances R ~ 15–220 km) obtained by Ulan-Ude and Severomuisk seismic stations. At the first step, in our previous works, using stochastic simulation of the accelerograms of the recorded local earthquakes we estimated the regional parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves (stress drop in an earthquake source, quality function of the medium, geometrical spreading, wave attenuation at high frequencies, local site amplification, etc). These parameters were then used to generate a set of earthquake accelerograms over a wide range of magnitudes (Mw ~ 4.0–8.0) and distances (R ~ 1–200 km) on a rock site, and a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) describing the dependence of peak ground accelerations (PGA) and peak ground velocities (PGV) on magnitude and distance are constructed. The obtained PGA estimates are compared with those estimated from GMPE recommended for BRZ by the international Global Earthquake Model (GEM) project. The scatter of the estimates obtained based on GEM GMPE indicates the relevance of developing the own GMPEs for Russian regions based on the records of local earthquakes. The GMPE derived in this work can be used for seismic hazard assessment in the BRZ eastern part and will be updated as new data are acquired. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—Deep earthquakes occur in subduction zones—they play a key role in the global tectonic model. There are only a few places on the Earth where deep-focus seismicity is observed on the continents in small localized areas at a considerable distance from the present-day subduction zones, in particular in the Vrancea region of the Carpathians. The strongest deep Vrancea earthquakes are felt at a distance of over 1000 km. They essentially define the seismic hazard for the East European platform, where either there are no local focal zones or these zones have small magnitudes. Therefore, studying deep Carpathian earthquakes is very important for adequate assessment of seismic hazard for the East European platform. We assume that although the strongest deep Carpathian earthquakes have been studied quite fully and thoroughly, not all existing information has been exhausted. The search for previously unknown primary sources may reveal new information about the macroseismic effect and, consequently, lead to more reliable and accurate earthquake parameter evaluations. This article examines the 1838 deep Carpathian earthquake using the original descriptions from primary sources. The earthquake magnitude has been determined by means of a new approach based on minimizing the discrepancies between the calculated and observed shaking intensities at all localities. It is shown that the magnitude of the 1838 earthquake is underestimated in the published catalogs by about 0.5 unit. We believe that the main reason is that the previously used macroseismic data in the far-field zone are not sufficiently complete. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of modeling the stress-strain state for the epicentral zone of the earthquake that occurred on December 26, 2003 in the southeast of Iran in the city of Bam, Kerman province, before and after the rupture are presented. It is shown that the source of the earthquake is located in the zone of high stresses, whereas the emerged rupture traces this zone on the surface and corresponds to its length. The aftershocks are localized in the area of the maximal stress drop after the formation of the rupture. The drop in the stress stimulates the release of the accumulated tectonic stresses during the subsequent aftershock process. The obtained results can be useful for the deterministic approach to seismic hazard assessment and forecasting, as well as for setting up the geophysical observations intended for forecasting the strong crustal earthquakes in the continental regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The technology which is being developed based on the seismic entropy method for monitoring and forecasting the earthquakes in the territory of Russia is described. This technology relies on seismostatistics and makes it possible to automate the monitoring system and to efficiently tap the networks of ground-based and ground-and-satellite-based observations of operative precursors. The main seismic systems responsible for the preparation of the strong earthquakes with magnitudes М ≥ 5.5 are described. The track and energy diagrams constructed for each seismic system provide the means for monitoring the preparation and forecasting the strong earthquakes in the real-time mode. Forty-four seismic systems controlling almost all seismically hazardous regions in Russia were identified and tested in real time during the period from 2010 to 2015. The guidelines for the practical application of the results of monitoring and forecasting are developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 − M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from −1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of −1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the magnitudes which, according to USLE, corresponded to the probability of exceedance 1% and 10% during 50 years or, if the reliable estimate is absent, the maximal magnitudes reported during the instrumental period. As a result, the seismic hazard maps for the Himalayas and the adjacent regions in terms of standard seismic zoning were constructed. Based on these calculations, in order to exemplify the method, we present a series of seismic risk maps taking into account the population density prone to seismic hazard and the dependence of the risk on the vulnerability as a function of population density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]