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IMPORTANCE: Mechanisms contributing to disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis (MS) are poorly understood. Blood neurofilament light chain (NfL) level, a marker of neuroaxonal injury, correlates robustly with disease activity in people with MS (MS); however, data on the association between NfL level and disability accumulation have been conflicting. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether and when NfL levels are elevated in the context of confirmed disability worsening (CDW). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study included 2 observational cohorts: results from the Expression, Proteomics, Imaging, Clinical (EPIC) study at the University of California San Francisco (since 2004) were confirmed in the Swiss Multiple Sclerosis Cohort (SMSC), a multicenter study in 8 centers since 2012. Data were extracted from EPIC in April 2022 (sampling July 1, 2004, to December 20, 2016) and SMSC in December 2022 (sampling June 6, 2012, to September 2, 2021). The study included 2 observational cohorts in tertiary MS centers. All participants of both cohorts with available NfL results were included in the study, and no eligible participants were excluded or declined to participate. EXPOSURE: Association between NfL z scores and CDW. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: CDW was defined as Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) worsening that was confirmed after 6 or more months and classified into CDW associated with clinical relapses (CDW-R) or independent of clinical relapses (CDW-NR). Visits were classified in relation to the disability worsening events into CDW(−2) for 2 visits preceding event, CDW(−1) for directly preceding event, CDW(event) for first diagnosis of EDSS increase, and the confirmation visit. Mixed linear and Cox regression models were used to evaluate NfL dynamics and to assess the association of NfL with future CDW, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 3906 EPIC visits (609 participants; median [IQR] age, 42.0 [35.0-50.0] years; 424 female [69.6%]) and 8901 SMSC visits (1290 participants; median [IQR] age, 41.2 [32.5-49.9] years; 850 female [65.9%]) were included. In CDW-R (EPIC, 36 events; SMSC, 93 events), NfL z scores were 0.71 (95% CI, 0.35-1.07; P < .001) units higher at CDW-R(−1) in EPIC and 0.32 (95% CI, 0.14-0.49; P < .001) in SMSC compared with stable MS samples. NfL elevation could be detected preceding CDW-NR (EPIC, 191 events; SMSC, 342 events) at CDW-NR(−2) (EPIC: 0.23; 95% CI, 0.01-0.45; P = .04; SMSC: 0.28; 95% CI, 0.18-0.37; P < .001) and at CDW-NR(−1) (EPIC: 0.27; 95% CI, 0.11-0.44; P < .001; SMSC: 0.09; 95% CI, 0-0.18; P = .06). Those findings were replicated in the subgroup with relapsing-remitting MS. Time-to-event analysis confirmed the association between NfL levels and future CDW-R within approximately 1 year and CDW-NR (in approximately 1-2 years). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This cohort study documents the occurrence of NfL elevation in advance of clinical worsening and may hint to a potential window of ongoing dynamic central nervous system pathology that precedes the diagnosis of CDW.

IMPORTANCE: Diagnostic incidence data for syndromes associated with frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD) in multinational studies are urgent in light of upcoming therapeutic approaches. OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence of FTLD across Europe. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Frontotemporal Dementia Incidence European Research Study (FRONTIERS) was a retrospective cohort study conducted from June 1, 2018, to May 31, 2019, using a population-based registry from 13 tertiary FTLD research clinics from the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Spain, Bulgaria, Serbia, Germany, and Italy and including all new FTLD-associated cases during the study period, with a combined catchment population of 11 023 643 person-years. Included patients fulfilled criteria for the behavioral variant of frontotemporal dementia (BVFTD), the nonfluent variant or semantic variant of primary progressive aphasia (PPA), unspecified PPA, progressive supranuclear palsy, corticobasal syndrome, or frontotemporal dementia with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FTD-ALS). Data were analyzed from July 19 to December 7, 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Random-intercept Poisson models were used to obtain estimates of the European FTLD incidence rate accounting for geographic heterogeneity. RESULTS: Based on 267 identified cases (mean [SD] patient age, 66.70 [9.02] years; 156 males [58.43%]), the estimated annual incidence rate for FTLD in Europe was 2.36 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 1.59-3.51 cases per 100 000 person-years). There was a progressive increase in FTLD incidence across age, reaching its peak at the age of 71 years, with 13.09 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 8.46-18.93 cases per 100 000 person-years) among men and 7.88 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 5.39-11.60 cases per 100 000 person-years) among women. Overall, the incidence was higher among men (2.84 cases per 100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 1.88-4.27 cases per 100 000 person-years) than among women (1.91 cases per 100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 1.26-2.91 cases per 100 000 person-years). BVFTD was the most common phenotype (107 cases [40.07%]), followed by PPA (76 [28.46%]) and extrapyramidal phenotypes (69 [25.84%]). FTD-ALS was the rarest phenotype (15 cases [5.62%]). A total of 95 patients with FTLD (35.58%) had a family history of dementia. The estimated number of new FTLD cases per year in Europe was 12 057. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings suggest that FTLD-associated syndromes are more common than previously recognized, and diagnosis should be considered at any age. Improved knowledge of FTLD incidence may contribute to appropriate health and social care planning and in the design of future clinical trials.