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Importance: The behavioral and cognitive symptoms of severe psychotic disorders overlap with those seen in dementia. However, shared brain alterations remain disputed, and their relevance for patients in at-risk disease stages has not been explored so far., Objective: To use machine learning to compare the expression of structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) patterns of behavioral-variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), Alzheimer disease (AD), and schizophrenia; estimate predictability in patients with bvFTD and schizophrenia based on sociodemographic, clinical, and biological data; and examine prognostic value, genetic underpinnings, and progression in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states for psychosis or recent-onset depression (ROD)., Design, Setting, and Participants: This study included 1870 individuals from 5 cohorts, including (1) patients with bvFTD (n = 108), established AD (n = 44), mild cognitive impairment or early-stage AD (n = 96), schizophrenia (n = 157), or major depression (n = 102) to derive and compare diagnostic patterns and (2) patients with CHR (n = 160) or ROD (n = 161) to test patterns' prognostic relevance and progression. Healthy individuals (n = 1042) were used for age-related and cohort-related data calibration. Data were collected from January 1996 to July 2019 and analyzed between April 2020 and April 2022., Main Outcomes and Measures: Case assignments based on diagnostic patterns; sociodemographic, clinical, and biological data; 2-year functional outcomes and genetic separability of patients with CHR and ROD with high vs low pattern expression; and pattern progression from baseline to follow-up MRI scans in patients with nonrecovery vs preserved recovery., Results: Of 1870 included patients, 902 (48.2%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 38.0 (19.3) years. The bvFTD pattern comprising prefrontal, insular, and limbic volume reductions was more expressed in patients with schizophrenia (65 of 157 [41.2%]) and major depression (22 of 102 [21.6%]) than the temporo-limbic AD patterns (28 of 157 [17.8%] and 3 of 102 [2.9%], respectively). bvFTD expression was predicted by high body mass index, psychomotor slowing, affective disinhibition, and paranoid ideation (R2 = 0.11). The schizophrenia pattern was expressed in 92 of 108 patients (85.5%) with bvFTD and was linked to the C9orf72 variant, oligoclonal banding in the cerebrospinal fluid, cognitive impairment, and younger age (R2 = 0.29). bvFTD and schizophrenia pattern expressions forecasted 2-year psychosocial impairments in patients with CHR and were predicted by polygenic risk scores for frontotemporal dementia, AD, and schizophrenia. Findings were not associated with AD or accelerated brain aging. Finally, 1-year bvFTD/schizophrenia pattern progression distinguished patients with nonrecovery from those with preserved recovery., Conclusions and Relevance: Neurobiological links may exist between bvFTD and psychosis focusing on prefrontal and salience system alterations. Further transdiagnostic investigations are needed to identify shared pathophysiological processes underlying the neuroanatomical interface between the 2 disease spectra.

Importance: Approaches are needed to stratify individuals in early psychosis stages beyond positive symptom severity to investigate specificity related to affective and normative variation and to validate solutions with premorbid, longitudinal, and genetic risk measures., Objective: To use machine learning techniques to cluster, compare, and combine subgroup solutions using clinical and brain structural imaging data from early psychosis and depression stages., Design, Setting, and Participants: A multisite, naturalistic, longitudinal cohort study (10 sites in 5 European countries; including major follow-up intervals at 9 and 18 months) with a referred patient sample of those with clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), recent-onset psychosis (ROP), recent-onset depression (ROD), and healthy controls were recruited between February 1, 2014, to July 1, 2019. Data were analyzed between January 2020 and January 2022., Main Outcomes and Measures: A nonnegative matrix factorization technique separately decomposed clinical (287 variables) and parcellated brain structural volume (204 gray, white, and cerebrospinal fluid regions) data across CHR-P, ROP, ROD, and healthy controls study groups. Stability criteria determined cluster number using nested cross-validation. Validation targets were compared across subgroup solutions (premorbid, longitudinal, and schizophrenia polygenic risk scores). Multiclass supervised machine learning produced a transferable solution to the validation sample., Results: There were a total of 749 individuals in the discovery group and 610 individuals in the validation group. Individuals included those with CHR-P (n = 287), ROP (n = 323), ROD (n = 285), and healthy controls (n = 464), The mean (SD) age was 25.1 (5.9) years, and 702 (51.7%) were female. A clinical 4-dimensional solution separated individuals based on positive symptoms, negative symptoms, depression, and functioning, demonstrating associations with all validation targets. Brain clustering revealed a subgroup with distributed brain volume reductions associated with negative symptoms, reduced performance IQ, and increased schizophrenia polygenic risk scores. Multilevel results distinguished between normative and illness-related brain differences. Subgroup results were largely validated in the external sample., Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this longitudinal cohort study provide stratifications beyond the expression of positive symptoms that cut across illness stages and diagnoses. Clinical results suggest the importance of negative symptoms, depression, and functioning. Brain results suggest substantial overlap across illness stages and normative variation, which may highlight a vulnerability signature independent from specific presentations. Premorbid, longitudinal, and genetic risk validation suggested clinical importance of the subgroups to preventive treatments.

Importance: Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear., Objectives: To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system., Design, Setting, and Participants: This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020., Main Outcomes and Measures: Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems., Results: A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results., Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.

Importance: Social and occupational impairments contribute to the burden of psychosis and depression. There is a need for risk stratification tools to inform personalized functional-disability preventive strategies for individuals in at-risk and early phases of these illnesses., Objective: To determine whether predictors associated with social and role functioning can be identified in patients in clinical high-risk (CHR) states for psychosis or with recent-onset depression (ROD) using clinical, imaging-based, and combined machine learning; assess the geographic, transdiagnostic, and prognostic generalizability of machine learning and compare it with human prognostication; and explore sequential prognosis encompassing clinical and combined machine learning., Design, Setting, and Participants: This multisite naturalistic study followed up patients in CHR states, with ROD, and with recent-onset psychosis, and healthy control participants for 18 months in 7 academic early-recognition services in 5 European countries. Participants were recruited between February 2014 and May 2016, and data were analyzed from April 2017 to January 2018., Ain Outcomes and Measures: Performance and generalizability of prognostic models., Results: A total of 116 individuals in CHR states (mean [SD] age, 24.0 [5.1] years; 58 [50.0%] female) and 120 patients with ROD (mean [SD] age, 26.1 [6.1] years; 65 [54.2%] female) were followed up for a mean (SD) of 329 (142) days. Machine learning predicted the 1-year social-functioning outcomes with a balanced accuracy of 76.9% of patients in CHR states and 66.2% of patients with ROD using clinical baseline data. Balanced accuracy in models using structural neuroimaging was 76.2% in patients in CHR states and 65.0% in patients with ROD, and in combined models, it was 82.7% for CHR states and 70.3% for ROD. Lower functioning before study entry was a transdiagnostic predictor. Medial prefrontal and temporo-parieto-occipital gray matter volume (GMV) reductions and cerebellar and dorsolateral prefrontal GMV increments had predictive value in the CHR group; reduced mediotemporal and increased prefrontal-perisylvian GMV had predictive value in patients with ROD. Poor prognoses were associated with increased risk of psychotic, depressive, and anxiety disorders at follow-up in patients in the CHR state but not ones with ROD. Machine learning outperformed expert prognostication. Adding neuroimaging machine learning to clinical machine learning provided a 1.9-fold increase of prognostic certainty in uncertain cases of patients in CHR states, and a 10.5-fold increase of prognostic certainty for patients with ROD., Conclusions and Relevance: Precision medicine tools could augment effective therapeutic strategies aiming at the prevention of social functioning impairments in patients with CHR states or with ROD.