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Objectives: To assess changes in HIV incidence and prevalence in Caió, a rural area of Guinea-Bissau, between 1990 and 2007., Design: Three cross-sectional community surveys., Methods: In 1990, 1997, and 2007, surveys were conducted among adults. The prevalence of HIV-1 and of HIV-2 was estimated for each survey, and incidence rates were calculated for the first (1990-1997) and second period (1997-2007)., Results: The HIV-1 incidence was approximately 4.5/1000 person-years in the two periods, whereas the HIV-2 incidence decreased from 4.7 (95% confidence interval 3.6-6.2) in the first to 2.0 (95% confidence interval 1.4-3.0) per 1000 person-years in the second period (P < 0.001). HIV-1 prevalence rose from 0.5% in 1990 to 3.6% in 2007, and HIV-2 prevalence decreased from 8.3% in 1990 to 4.7% in 2007. HIV-1 prevalence was less than 2% in 15 to 24 year olds in all surveys and was highest (7.2%) in 2007 among 45 to 54 year olds. The HIV-2 prevalence was fivefold higher in older subjects (> or =45 yr) compared with those less than 45 years in both sexes in 2007., Conclusions: HIV-1 incidence is stable, and its prevalence is increasing, whereas HIV-2 incidence and prevalence are both declining. In contrast with what has been observed in other sub-Saharan countries, HIV-1 prevalence is lower in younger age groups than older age groups.

Objectives: To estimate and compare the all-cause mortality rates among HIV-1-infected, HIV-2-infected, and uninfected women and to assess the predictive value of baseline plasma viral load (PVL) and CD4 cell percentage (CD4%) for mortality., Design: Cohort study., Methods: At presentation to antenatal clinics in The Gambia in 1993-1995, pregnant women were screened for antibodies to HIV-1 and HIV-2. Seropositive subjects and a similar number of seronegative controls were enrolled, and baseline PVL and CD4% were measured. Participants were visited regularly by field-workers until 18 months after delivery and again 4-7 years later., Results: Thirty-two of 101 women infected with HIV-1, 23 of 243 infected with HIV-2, and 9 of 468 seronegative women died during a median follow-up of 6.9 years. The mortality rate was 56 deaths per 1000 person years of observation (pyo) for HIV-1-infected, 16 deaths per 1000 pyo for HIV-2-infected, and 3.1 deaths per 1000 pyo for HIV-uninfected women. After 8 years of follow-up, >50% of HIV-1-infected women were still alive. In multivariate analysis, a 1-log increase of HIV-1 PVL was associated with a 1.8-fold higher rate of mortality (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9-3.4). In HIV-2 infection, women with a high PVL (>10,000 copies/mL) had an 8.7-fold (95% CI, 2.8-28) higher rate of mortality than did those with a low PVL (<1000 copies/mL). A 10% decrease in CD4% was associated with higher mortality rates among HIV-1-infected (1.6-fold; 95% CI, 1.1-2.3) and HIV-2-infected (1.5-fold; 95% CI, 1.0-2.3) subjects., Discussion: Survival of HIV-1-infected women in The Gambia is similar to that in industrialized countries before the introduction of antiretroviral treatment. Survival of HIV-2-infected women is much better. However, women with high PVLs die as quickly as their HIV-1-infected counterparts.

Background: Identification of basic prognostic indicators of HIV infection is essential before widespread antiretroviral therapy can be implemented in low-technology settings. This study assessed how well body mass index (BMI:kg/m2) predicts survival., Methods: BMI within 3 months of HIV diagnosis was obtained from 1657 patients aged > or = 15 years, recruited in a seroprevalent clinical cohort in The Gambia since 1992 and followed up at least once. Baseline CD4+ counts and clinical assessment at time of diagnosis were done., Results: The mortality hazard ratio (HR) of those with a baseline BMI <18 compared with those with a baseline BMI > or = 18 was 3.4 (95% CI, 3.0-3.9). The median survival time of those presenting with a BMI <16 was 0.8 years, in contrast to a median survival of 8.9 years for those with a baseline BMI > or = 22. Baseline BMI <18 remained a highly significant independent predictor of mortality after adjustment for age, sex, co-trimoxazole prophylaxis, tuberculosis, reported wasting at diagnosis, and baseline CD4+ cell count (adjusted HR = 2.5, 95% CI 2.0-3.0). Sensitivity and specificity of baseline BMI <18 was comparable to that of a CD4+ count <200 in predicting mortality within 6 months of diagnosis., Discussion: BMI at diagnosis is a strong, independent predictor of survival in HIV-infected patients in West Africa. In the absence of sophisticated clinical and laboratory support, BMI may also prove a useful guide for deciding when to initiate antiretroviral therapy.