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The purpose of this study was to explore the coupling coordination relationship and obstacle factors of land use functions and poverty alleviation effect in the poverty-stricken counties of Guangdong Province from 2014 to 2020. Based on the coupling coordination mechanism between land use functions and poverty alleviation effect, the evaluation index system was constructed. The entropy weight method, the coupling coordination degree model, as well as the obstacle degree model were used to measure the coupling coordination relationship and the obstacle factors. The research results indicated that the land use functions and poverty alleviation effect levels were showing a generally equivalent increasing trend. Among them, the average comprehensive evaluation index of land use functions increased from 0.239 7 to 0.268 1, with an increase of 11.85%, presenting a “core-edge” distribution pattern, and the average comprehensive evaluation index of poverty alleviation effect increased from 0.356 7 to 0.398 7, with an increase of 11.77%, which had shifted from uniform distribution to central agglomeration growth on spatial differentiation. The degree of coupling coordination increased from 0.529 0 to 0.559 8, with an increase of 5.82%, and primary coordination being the main focus. In terms of the spatial differentiation, there was a shift from overall uniform dispersion to local high-level improvement. The type of the coupling coordination was dominated by the lag type of land use functions, which was relatively evenly distributed throughout the entire region. The main obstacle factors (with obstacle degree greater than 5%) that restricted the coupling coordination of the two were relatively stable, which concentrated on cultural and social indicators. However, the obstacle degree showed a trend of increasing or decreasing in different amplitude. In conclusion, the land use functions and poverty alleviation effect in the poverty-stricken counties of Guangdong Province were still at the primary coordination level. To promote the coupling coordination of the two, the control and management of obstacle factors should be strengthened, and the policy implementation should be classified according to different coupling coordination types, such as promoting the comprehensive land consolidation across the entire region orderly, linking the poverty alleviation achievements with rural revitalization effectively, and supporting the synchronous coordination and linkage mechanism vigorously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenario simulation and prediction of future land use is an integral step in ensuring regional sustainable development. The Markov chain was adopted to predict the total area of various types of land use in 2030. As envisaged in the 14th Five-Year Plan for Guangzhou Transportation, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern of Guangzhou in 2030 by setting up natural development and traffic planning scenarios. Additionally, the land use transfer matrix and landscape index were applied to explore the properties of land use type transformation and landscape pattern under two different scenarios. The results show that traffic planning has a significant impact on the artificial surface, within 3 km of traffic line，with the area of the artificial surface under the traffic planning scenario increasing by 22.06 km2 compared with the natural development scenario, which mainly transferred from cultivated land and forest land. The artificial surface will mainly undergo extensive expansion under these two scenarios. In the natural development scenario, the spreading speed of the artificial surface in each region will be relatively consistent, while in the traffic planning scenario, the artificial surface will be concentrated in the periphery of the central urban area, and the probability of distribution far away from the city center is low. Compared with natural development scenario, traffic planning scenario has higher patch dominance and more complicated patch form, which is reflected in the artificial surface with significantly increased dominance and cultivated land and grassland with more fragmented and complex shapes. Thus, it is reasonable to utilize the PLUS model to simulate the future urban land use pattern by considering transportation planning, since the simulation results can provide essential data support and decision-making bases to underpin future territorial space management and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]