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Understanding the demographic response of free-living animal populations to different drivers is the first step towards reliable prediction of population trends., Penguins have exhibited dramatic declines in population size, and many studies have linked this to bottom-up processes altering the abundance of prey species. The effects of individual traits have been considered to a lesser extent, and top-down regulation through predation has been largely overlooked due to the difficulties in empirically measuring this at sea where it usually occurs., For 10 years (2003-2012), macaroni penguins ( Eudyptes chrysolophus) were marked with subcutaneous electronic transponder tags and re-encountered using an automated gateway system fitted at the entrance to the colony. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling to identify the different drivers influencing survival rates and a sensitivity analysis to assess their relative importance across different life stages., Survival rates were low and variable during the fledging year (mean = 0·33), increasing to much higher levels from age 1 onwards (mean = 0·89). We show that survival of macaroni penguins is driven by a combination of individual quality, top-down predation pressure and bottom-up environmental forces. The relative importance of these covariates was age specific. During the fledging year, survival rates were most sensitive to top-down predation pressure, followed by individual fledging mass, and finally bottom-up environmental effects. In contrast, birds older than 1 year showed a similar response to bottom-up environmental effects and top-down predation pressure., We infer from our results that macaroni penguins will most likely be negatively impacted by an increase in the local population size of giant petrels. Furthermore, this population is, at least in the short term, likely to be positively influenced by local warming. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of considering multiple causal effects across different life stages when examining the survival rates of seabirds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Many far-ranging bird and mammal species aggregate in colonies to breed, and most individuals remain faithful to one colony. Here, we use modelling to explore the consequences of this site fidelity for the metapopulation dynamics of such species. 2. We develop a spatially explicit model of the annual transfer process between colonies. We apply it to different spatial arrangements of 20 identical colonies and thus demonstrate that connectivity alone can, in the short term, give rise to heterogeneity in colony size. 3. We place the annual transfer model within a state-structured population model and examine the consequences of local and global density dependence for long-term dynamics. For each scenario, we investigate the implications of the strength of site fidelity, the cost of migration and the population's intrinsic growth rate. 4. Our results suggest that, under local density dependence, site fidelity slows down the colonization process and can temporarily trap the entire population in a subset of the available potential colonies. When site fidelity is strong, the metapopulation follows a step-like trajectory. Population growth occurs only rarely because individuals must overcome their site-fidelity to found new colonies. Even though this effect is temporary, it renders the entire metapopulation vulnerable to rare catastrophic collapses. 5. Under global density dependence, site fidelity imposes competition between colonies for the limiting resource. Stochastic events lead to the dominance of certain colonies and the temporary extinction of others. If site fidelity is strong, it can permanently prevent the metapopulation from occupying all available potential colonies. 6. We conclude that, irrespective of the mechanism of population regulation, colonially breeding species that show strong site fidelity are likely to occupy only a portion of the breeding habitat available to them. Journal of Animal Ecology (2005) doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2005.00970.x [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Part II. Examines a simple model of interaction between population density and aggressiveness in Lagopus lagopus scoticus. Changes in aggressiveness as a function of population density; Kinship hypothesis for red grouse cycles; Population dynamics.

1. Impediments to animal movement are ubiquitous and vary widely in both scale and permeability. It is essential to understand how impediments alter ecological dynamics via their influence on animal behavioural strategies governing space use and, for anthropogenic features such as roads and fences, how to mitigate these effects to effectively manage species and landscapes. 2. Here, we focused primarily on barriers to movement, which we define as features that cannot be circumnavigated but may be crossed. Responses to barriers will be influenced by the movement capabilities of the animal, its proximity to the barriers, and habitat preference. We developed a mechanistic modelling framework for simultaneously quantifying the permeability and proximity effects of barriers on habitat preference and movement. 3. We used simulations based on our model to demonstrate how parameters on movement, habitat preference and barrier permeability can be estimated statistically. We then applied the model to a case study of road effects on wild mountain reindeer summer movements. 4. This framework provided unbiased and precise parameter estimates across a range of strengths of preferences and barrier permeabilities. The quality of permeability estimates, however, was correlated with the number of times the barrier is crossed and the number of locations in proximity to barriers. In the case study we found that reindeer avoided areas near roads and that roads are semi-permeable barriers to movement. There was strong avoidance of roads extending up to c. 1 km for four of five animals, and having to cross roads reduced the probability of movement by 68.6% (range 3.5-99.5%). 5. Human infrastructure has embedded within it the idea of networks: nodes connected by linear features such as roads, rail tracks, pipelines, fences and cables, many of which divide the landscape and limit animal movement. The unintended but potentially profound consequences of infrastructure on animals remain poorly understood. The rigorous framework for simultaneously quantifying movement, habitat preference and barrier permeability developed here begins to address this knowledge gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If animals moved randomly in space, the use of different habitats would be proportional to their availability. Hence, deviations from proportionality between use and availability are considered the tell-tale sign of preference. This principle forms the basis for most habitat selection and species distribution models fitted to use-availability or count data (e.g. MaxEnt and Resource Selection Functions)., Yet, once an essential habitat type is sufficiently abundant to meet an individual's needs, increased availability of this habitat type may lead to a decrease in the use/availability ratio. Accordingly, habitat selection functions may estimate negative coefficients when habitats are superabundant, incorrectly suggesting an apparent avoidance. Furthermore, not accounting for the effects of availability on habitat use may lead to poor predictions, particularly when applied to habitats that differ considerably from those for which data have been collected., Using simulations, we show that habitat use varies non-linearly with habitat availability, even when individuals follow simple movement rules to acquire food and avoid risk. The results show that the impact of availability strongly depends on the type of habitat (e.g. whether it is essential or substitutable) and how it interacts with the distribution and availability of other habitats., We demonstrate the utility of a variety of existing and new methods that enable the influence of habitat availability to be explicitly estimated. Models that allow for non-linear effects (using b-spline smoothers) and interactions between environmental covariates defining habitats and measures of their availability were best able to capture simulated patterns of habitat use across a range of environments., An appealing aspect of some of the methods we discuss is that the relative influence of availability is not defined a priori, but directly estimated by the model. This feature is likely to improve model prediction, hint at the mechanism of habitat selection, and may signpost habitats that are critical for the organism's fitness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Part I. Examines the territorial behavior and population cycles in Lagopus lagopus scoticus. Use of testosterone implants to increase aggressiveness of cocks; Spatial structuring within grouse populations; Influence of changes in aggressiveness on population cycles.