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Seagrass recovery has been reported across the globe where previously eutrophied waters have become less nutrient‐rich. In the European Wadden Sea, different recovery trajectories were found after riverine nutrient loads decreased, namely full, temporary and no recovery. We compiled intertidal seagrass presence (Zostera noltei and Z. marina) and eutrophication data for 1930–2020, to relate the seagrass trajectories and regional eutrophication differences to riverine nutrient loads, and inferred prospects for seagrass recovery.Seagrass fully recovered in the less eutrophic North Frisian region. The recovery trajectory was tightly coupled to riverine nutrient load reduction. Relative seagrass area (meadow area/region area) dropped from 10% prior to eutrophication to 2% during the eutrophication peak, increased to 7% during the nutrient reduction period and subsequently expanded to 13%. Colonization of marginal habitats was observed, indicating propagule spillover from neighbouring meadows.The more eutrophic southern regions showed no or only temporary seagrass recovery. Prospects for (limited) recovery are good in only two out of four southern regions, provided that riverine nutrient loads are further reduced by ~40% (reference: 2010–2017). Without this reduction, seagrasses may only temporarily recover and will remain vulnerable to erratic disturbances like macroalgae accumulation or storms.Historical evidence and application of habitat suitability models suggest that the potential relative seagrass area in the southern regions is low: less than 0.2% in the western Dutch region and maximum 2.4% in the Ems‐Jade region.Synthesis and applications. Within a large seascape (15,000 km2) the least eutrophicated region showed seagrass recovery upon nutrient reduction. We translated the critical riverine nutrient loads for this recovery, via regional eutrophication indicators, to loads that may enable a sustained recovery in the other regions. This technique is applicable in other complex systems, provided sufficient historical data are available. Propagule spillover exerts a positive feedback at metapopulation scale leading to acceleration of recovery. Occupied and potential seagrass habitat (e.g. assessed by the maximum recorded area in the past) are thus important landscape selection criteria for restoration, particularly when eutrophication is not yet sufficiently reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long‐term sustainability of natural and bottom‐cultured mussel beds relies on the availability of spat (i.e. juvenile mussels). Traditional spat collection methods, which disrupt the donor population and its habitat, have prompted the adoption of suspended mussel spat collectors (SMCs) as an ecologically sustainable alternative. However, practical experience has demonstrated that SMC efficiency is subject to significant spatiotemporal variability, with the underlying biotic and abiotic drivers remaining unresolved.Based on 11‐year SMC practices in the Dutch Wadden Sea, we first validated, through field experiments, the inference that larval abundance and settlement rate in seawater are the primary determinants of SMC efficiency. Secondly, we screened the key factors driving variation in SMC efficiency using an integrated dataset that includes both management options (i.e. user‐defined factors, like SMC types) and environmental conditions (i.e. site‐specific factors, such as hydrodynamics). Lastly, we developed a predictive model to explore the sensitivity of SMC efficiency to these key factors.The efficiency of SMCs was not affected by larval abundance and settlement rate, but rather regulated by management options and environmental conditions, with the key factors identified as SMC type, substrate size, mean wave height and starfish abundance.Rope‐based SMCs outperform net‐based SMCs in terms of harvest efficiency. Both types of SMCs exhibit consistent sensitivity to environmental conditions, with harvest efficiency higher in areas with lower mean wave height and fewer starfish. Increasing substrate size (i.e. rope length and net area) in these areas has the potential to further improve SMC efficiency.Synthesis and applications: Our study highlights the importance of environmental conditions over life cycle‐related factors in regulating SMC efficiency. This offers optimistic prospects for investment in larger‐scale deployment of SMCs and maximizing efficiency through site suitability assessments beforehand. The predictive model we developed can provide information for this purpose. Furthermore, strategically adjusting management options would further optimize SMC efficiency, but it is necessary to balance the associated benefits and costs. Overall, our study underscores the predictability and controllability of SMC efficiency and informs management to maximize sustainable spat supply in both mussel culture and restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land subsidence in intertidal environments may change the flooding regime and sediment composition, two drivers of the macrozoobenthic community. In the Dutch Wadden Sea, a UNESCO world heritage site, gas extraction has resulted in an average subsidence of intertidal mudflats of 2 mm year−1. These mudflats support an abundant macrozoobenthic community that offers important resources for birds and fish. The area is managed through the 'hand on the tap' principle, meaning that human activities should be halted if they affect the natural values. To what extent land subsidence affects sediment and macrozoobenthos remains unknown and is increasingly important given sea level rise.Taking advantage of a large‐scale monitoring program, we evaluated the effect of anthropogenically caused subsidence on sediment composition and macrozoobenthos. Nearly 4600 points were sampled yearly (2008–2020) across the Dutch Wadden Sea, allowing us to compare sediment composition and macrozoobenthos biomass within and outside the subsidence area while controlling for the main drivers of these variables. We also compared population trends within and outside the subsidence area for 31 species with different habitat use.Mud fraction was 3% higher within the subsided area and median grain size decreased at 1 μm year−1 while remaining constant in other mudflats. This had no effect on the total biomass of macrozoobenthos. Within the subsidence area, however, the biomass of species that use deeper areas increased compared to outside, and the opposite was true for species using shallower habitat.Policy implications: Land subsidence is related to changes in median grain size and macrozoobenthic community composition. However, because thresholds have not been defined, it is not clear if this requires management actions. For a successful implementation of the 'hand on the tap' principle in the Wadden Sea, it is necessary to define beforehand the relevant variables that represent the natural values, implement proper monitoring and define thresholds above which effects are not acceptable. We propose median grain size, mud fraction and macrozoobenthic composition as good measures of the natural values of the Wadden Sea, and the methods used here as a way for identifying anthropogenic effects on them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Triggered by the disappearance of the bivalve‐eating red knots Calidris canutus from feeding areas in the western Dutch Wadden Sea after these intertidal flats were exposed to the harvesting of edible cockles Cerastoderma edule by shallow‐draft suction dredging vessels, the admission of such dredging practices in this state nature monument, RAMSAR‐site and area designated protection under the EC Habitat and Bird Directives became an issue of politicized and heated societal debate in the 1990s and early 2000s. In the absence of focussed scientific research yielding peer‐reviewed papers, the few published studies on the issue were 'side‐products' of a long‐term study on foraging ecology and population dynamics of red knots.In their contribution, van der Meer and Folmer criticized some of the statistical analyses in, what they consider, key papers leading to the closure of these forms of shellfish‐harvesting in the Dutch Wadden Sea.The material provided by van der Meer and Folmer represents useful hindsight, further analytical sophistication and a (in our view biased) literature review, and thus raises new issues of concern, while leaving intact the arguments for concern about harmful ecological effects of large‐scale suction‐dredging in protected intertidal areas.Policy implications. We conclude that, even in the light of the statistical concerns expressed by van der Meer and Folmer, there is still reasonable doubt on an absence of harmful ecological effects of suction‐dredging. This means that the eventual precautionary ruling on suction‐dredging for cockles in the protected Dutch Wadden Sea would remain perfectly valid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the impacts of disturbance over large areas and long time periods is crucial for nature management, but also challenging since impacts depend on both wildlife responses to disturbance and on the spatiotemporal distribution of disturbance sources. Combined tracking of animals and disturbance sources enables quantification of wildlife responses as a function of the distance to a disturbance source. We provide a framework to derive such distance–response curves and combine those with disturbance source presence data to quantify energetic costs of disturbance at a landscape scale.We tracked 90 Eurasian Oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus and all aircraft in a military training area in the Dutch Wadden Sea. We quantified distance–response curves estimating flight probability and additional displacement for five types of aircraft activities, by comparing bird movement prior to aircraft presence with movement during aircraft presence. We then used the distance–response curves to map mean and variation in additional daily energy expenditure due to cumulative aircraft disturbance across the landscape for a 700‐day period.Flight probability and displacement responses differed strongly among aircraft activities and decreased from transport aeroplanes, through bombing jets, helicopters, jets to small civil aeroplanes. Since the most disturbing aircraft activities were also the rarest ones, mean additional daily energy expenditure did not exceed 0.25%. However, days with substantial (>1%) additional expenditure occurred between 0.1% and 3.7% of all days across high‐tide roosts in the tidal basin. Notably, expenditure particularly spiked on days with transport aeroplane activity (up to 8.5%).Synthesis and applications. We quantified cumulative energetic flight costs due to aircraft disturbance and found that these were low and unlikely to impact survival of oystercatchers in our study area. Our results provide evidence that the legal minimum flight height of 450 m for small civil aeroplanes effectively limits the disturbance of oystercatchers. Mitigation should focus on limiting the number of days when disturbance has a high impact by reducing rare but highly disturbing activities, especially transport aeroplanes. Our approach can be applied to other species and disturbance sources that are automatically tracked, for example boats and walkers, ultimately to quantify the entire anthropogenic disturbance landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the dramatic eutrophication-induced decline of intertidal seagrasses in the 1970s, the Wadden Sea has shown diverging developments. In the northern Wadden Sea, seagrass beds have expanded and become denser, while in the southern Wadden Sea, only small beds with low shoot densities are found. A lack of documentation of historical distributions hampers conservation management. Yet, the recovery in the northern Wadden Sea provides opportunity to construct robust habitat suitability models to support management., We tuned habitat distribution models based on 17 years of seagrass surveys in the northern Wadden Sea and high-resolution hydrodynamics and geomorphology for the entire Wadden Sea using five machine learning approaches. To obtain geographically transferable models, hyperparameters were tuned on the basis of prediction accuracy assessed by non-random, spatial cross-validation. The spatial cross-validation methodology was combined with a consensus modelling approach., The predicted suitability scores correlated amongst each other and with the hold-out observations in the training area indicating that the models converged and were transferable across space. Prediction accuracy was improved by averaging the predictions of the best models., We graphically examined the relationship between the consensus suitability score and independent presence-only data from outside the training area using the area-adjusted seagrass frequency per suitability class (continuous Boyce index). The Boyce index was positively correlated with the suitability score indicating the adequacy of the prediction methodology., We used the plot of the continuous Boyce index against habitat suitability score to demarcate three habitat classes - unsuitable, marginal and suitable - for the entire international Wadden Sea. This information is valuable for habitat conservation and restoration management., Divergence between predicted suitability and actual distributions from the recent past indicates that unaccounted factors limit seagrass development in the southern Wadden Sea., Synthesis and applications. Our methodology and data enabled us to produce a robust and validated consensus habitat suitability model. We identified highly suitable areas where intertidal seagrass meadows may establish and persist. Our work provides scientific underpinning for effective conservation planning in a dynamic landscape and sets monitoring priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Applied ecology, like conservation research, may deal with societal issues if its scientifically based interventions have societal consequences. Human utilization plays a significant role in many ecosystems, so conservation ecologists often have to act on the interface between science and society, where controversies may arise. 2. Using insights from science and technology studies, we have analysed the 15-year controversy on the ecological effects of cockle fishing in the Dutch Wadden Sea, which began around 1990 and involved nature protection and shellfish organizations, as well as several leading Dutch ecologists, in a heated debate. 3. During this controversy, evaluative research on the ecological effects of cockle fishing was undertaken by a consortium of institutes in order to contribute to the process of political decision-making by the Dutch government on cockle fishery in this area. In addition to conservational and commercial interests, ecological research itself became part of the controversy. 4. The research projects on the effects of cockle fishing during this controversy are examples of societally contextualized science, implying that interests and societal disputes are intertwined with scientific arguments. We have applied a dynamic model of contextualization in which societal stakes and scientific uncertainty are considered as the main factors determining the different contexts in which conservation research functions. 5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation research, whether it is fundamental or managerially orientated, is related to greater societal aims and interests and might easily face more or less complex societally contextualized situations. Such situations imply extended responsibilities for scientists. Not only is there a need for sound science, but also for a sound way of interacting and communicating with the societal environment. Some elements of such a notion of extended accountability are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]