1. An Experiment on the Sensitivity of a Global Circulation Model
- Author
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R. Robert Rapp and M. Warshaw
- Subjects
Temperature gradient ,Atmospheric circulation ,Climatology ,General Circulation Model ,Environmental science ,Predictive capability ,Point (geometry) ,Numerical models ,Sensitivity (control systems) ,Atmospheric sciences ,The arctic - Abstract
The growth of small errors in numerical models of the atmospheric circulation destroys the detailed predictive capability of those models within a few days. Despite the failure of the models to produce accurate local predictions, it was hypothesized that a change in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient would produce discernible effects in average conditions. This paper presents the results of an experiment to test this hypothesis. The Mintz-Arakawa model was started with a standard set of initial conditions and was run 60 days. The experiment was then replicated twice, with two independent sets of random temperature variations superposed on the temperatures at the σ = 0.25 and σ = 0.75 levels. At this point, the ice of the Arctic Ocean was replaced with water at the freezing temperature. Again the model was run, starting once with the standard initial conditions (other than the ice removal) and once each with the two sets of temperature “errors” added. For the four replications with temperatu...
- Published
- 1973