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Several studies in the literature have developed approaches to diagnose hail storms from satellite-borne passive microwave imagery and build nearly global climatologies of hail. This paper uses spaceborne Ku-band radar measurements from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) to validate several passive microwave approaches. We assess the retrievals on the basis of how tightly they constrain the radar reflectivity at −20°C and how this measured radar reflectivity aloft varies geographically. The algorithm that combines minimum 19-GHz polarization corrected temperature (PCT) with a 37-GHz PCT depression normalized by tropopause height constrains the radar reflectivity most tightly and gives the least appearance of regional biases. A retrieval that is based on a 19-GHz PCT threshold of 261K also produces tightly clustered profiles of radar reflectivity, with little regional bias. An approach using regionally adjusted minimum 37-GHz PCT performs relatively well, but our results indicate it may overestimate hail in some subtropical and midlatitude regions. A threshold applied to the minimum 37-GHz PCT (≤230 K), without any scaling by region or probability of hail, overestimates hail in the tropics and underestimates beyond the tropics. For all retrieval approaches, storms identified as having hail tended to have radar reflectivity profiles that are consistent with general expectations for hailstorms (reflectivity > 50 dBZ below the 0°C level, and > 40 dBZ extending far above 0°C). Profiles from oceanic regions tended to have more rapidly decreasing reflectivity with height than profiles from other regions. Subtropical, high-latitude, and high-terrain land profiles had the slowest decreases of reflectivity with height. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work examines the diurnal and seasonal variability of near-surface temperature and humidity at several large areas with high population density within the Maritime Continent using the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Reanalysis (BARRA) 12-km-resolution dataset that covers the period 1990–2019. The diurnal cycle is examined in detail, with a key feature being the relatively small diurnal variation of the wet-bulb temperature TWB when compared with the temperature and dewpoint temperature TD. The diurnal variability is strongly modulated by the monsoons with their increased rainfall and cloud cover. The near-surface signals associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation across the domains are relatively weak. Dry and humid temperature extremes are examined for regional and seasonal variability. The dry and moist variable extremes occur at different times of year, but each have spatially coherent structure. Significance Statement: This paper examines the climatological variations of near-surface temperature and humidity and their extremes in four locations in the "Maritime Continent." This is important because there are significant variations potentially affecting human and ecosystem health and its resilience to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a downscaling method that statistically describes a local-scale climate from largescale circulations using the case of a Korean basin during boreal winter. Specifically, since the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) affects the climate of the Korean Peninsula, we make a weather generator model describing the response of the basin climate to the monsoon strength. Moreover, it operates on the basis of a tercile probabilistic prediction of theEAWM strength to generate diverse scenarios of daily weather sequence during the season, which can be utilized in evaluation of the climate impact. We evaluate the prediction skills of operational hindcasts for several existingEAWMindices by applying a multinomial logistic regression method to choose the most suitable index for the downscaling. In the weather generator model, the precipitation model part is designed to be fully parametric. Its parameter values are allowed to vary according to the monsoon strength so that they can represent the climate variability of precipitation. In the temperature model part, the daily temporal variations of the temperature over the Korean basin are decomposed into several oscillations with different frequencies. Since the slowly varying oscillations significantly respond to the monsoon strength, the proposed downscaling scheme is based on the statistical simulation of oscillations according to the monsoon strength. The proposed downscaling scheme is evaluated in terms of the reproducibility of the climate characteristics for a given EAWM strength and the informativeness for predicting monthly climate characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the new background of climate change, it is very important to identify the characteristics of drought in North China. Based on the daily meteorological drought comprehensive index from 494 national meteorological stations in North China during 1961–2019, the drought processes and their intensity are identified by applying the "extreme" intensity–duration (EID) theory. Then, the stage variation characteristics of the drought trend, the average drought intensity, and the drought frequency are analyzed. The results show that among the five drought intensity indices the process maximum intensity demonstrates the greatest correlation coefficient with the disaster rate of drought in North China. Therefore, the process maximum intensity of drought is selected as the annual drought intensity to analyze the drought characteristics in North China. According to the climate warming trends, the study period is divided into three stages, that is, 1951–84 (stage I), 1985–97 (stage II), and 1998–2019 (stage III). The comprehensive results show that the drought intensity in North China has significant stage characteristics. In stage I, the drought shows an increasing trend in most parts of North China, but its average intensity is relatively weaker, with a lower severe drought frequency. The drought also shows an increasing trend in most parts in stage II, with a more significant increase rate than that in stage I, and the average drought intensity is the strongest and the severe drought frequency is the highest. In stage III, the drought shows a decreasing trend in some areas, and the average intensity is the weakest, with a lower severe drought frequency. Significance Statement: In this paper, we develop a drought intensity formula, the maximum intensity of drought, based on the "extreme" intensity–duration theory. The maximum intensity of drought was then calculated and selected as an annual drought intensity to analyze the drought characteristics in North China. We found that the annual drought intensity better captured the extremity and the patterns of drought process than that obtained with single indices and comprehensive indices. The results show a decreasing trend of drought in North China after 1998. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes how a combination of high-resolution numerical modeling, a robust homogenization algorithm, and local pressure observations have been used to understand and reconcile time series of daily, seasonal, and annual peak wind gusts recorded at observing sites in the Cook Strait region of New Zealand. The homogenization algorithm consists of corrections for the relocation of masts, changes in instrumentations, data acquisition and signal processing, surrounding surface roughness, and measurement heights. In addition, a statistical method, penalized maximal F test (PMFT), was used to assess the homogeneity of the wind speed time series and detect and eliminate all remaining, undocumented, artificial (i.e., nonclimatic) breakpoints. A three-dimensional time-dependent computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation was carried out using the Gerris model to characterize the turbulence environment at the mast sites and to estimate topographic speedup effects. Trends in magnitudes and frequencies of the homogenized seasonal and annual peak wind gusts are evaluated and presented for the Cook Strait region. The pressure gradients between pairs of stations were used to study the correlation between the gust wind speeds and the pressure field. A high-resolution convection-resolving numerical weather prediction model [the New Zealand Convective-Scale Model (NZCSM)] was employed to aid the interpretation of results and analyze wind trends. The trend in gust speeds is also shown to be consistent with larger-scale NCEP–NCAR reanalysis pressure trends. The homogenization algorithm showed promising results in eliminating the artificial breakpoints and trends. Overall, strong correlations were found between the homogenized gust speeds, the pressure field across the region, and NZCSM predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an updated cloud regime (CR) dataset based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6.1 cloud products, specifically, joint histograms that partition cloud fraction within distinct combinations of cloud-top pressure and cloud optical thickness ranges. The paper focuses on an edition of the CR dataset derived from our own aggregation of MODIS pixel-level cloud retrievals on an equal-area grid and prespecified 3-h UTC intervals that spatiotemporally match International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) gridded cloud data. The other edition comes from the 1° daily aggregation provided by standard MODIS Level-3 data, as in previous versions of the MODIS CRs, for easier use with datasets mapped on equal-angle grids. Both editions consist of 11 clusters whose centroids are nearly identical. We provide a physical interpretation of the new CRs and aspects of their climatology that have not been previously examined, such as seasonal and interannual variability of CR frequency of occurrence. We also examine the makeup and precipitation properties of the CRs assisted by independent datasets originating from active observations and provide a first glimpse of how MODIS CRs relate to clouds as seen by ISCCP. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: We present an updated 17-yr dataset of global cloudiness classification from the space-based MODIS instrument. This dataset exhibits similar consistency with the cloud and precipitation characteristics seen by active observations in the previous version, but its greater length allows an initial analysis of trends of cloud systems with distinct physical properties and geographical characteristics. Furthermore, custom tailoring to spatiotemporally match the ISCCP dataset enables systematic comparisons with that seminal description of cloud climatological characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observing systems consisting of a finite number of in situ monitoring stations can provide high-quality measurements with the ability to quality assure both the instruments and the data but offer limited information over larger geographic areas. This paper quantifies the spatial coverage represented by a finite set of monitoring stations by using global data--data that are possibly of lower resolution and quality. For illustration purposes, merged satellite temperature data from Microwave Sounding Units are used to estimate the representativeness of the Global Climate Observing System Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN). While many metrics exist for evaluating the representativeness of a site, the ability to have highly accurate monthly averaged data is essential for both trend detection and climatology evaluation. The calculated correlations of the monthly averaged upper-troposphere satellite-derived temperatures over the GRUAN stations with all other pixels around the globe show that the current 9 certified GRUAN stations have moderate correlations (r $ 0.7) for approximately 10% of the earth, but an expanded network incorporating another 15 stations would result in moderate correlations for just over 60% of the earth. This analysis indicates that the value of additional stations can be quantified by using historical, satellite, or model data and can be used to reveal critical gaps in current monitoring capabilities. Evaluating the value of potential additional stations and prioritizing their initiation can optimize networks. The expansion of networks can be evaluated in a manner that allows for optimal benefit on the basis of optimization theory and economic analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluation of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) dataset published monthly in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA/NCEI) climate divisional database revealed that drought frequency is being mischaracterized in climate divisions across the United States. The 3- and 6-month September SPI values were downloaded from the database for all years between 1931 and 2019; the SPI was also calculated for the same time scales and span of years following the SPI method laid out by NOAA/NCEI. Drought frequency is characterized as the total number of years that the SPI fell below 21. SPI values across 1931-90, the calibration period cited by NOAA/NCEI, showed regional patterns in climate divisions that are biased toward or away from drought, according to the average values of the SPI. For both time scales examined, the majority of the climate divisions in the central, Midwest, and northeastern United States showed negative averages, indicating bias toward drought, whereas climate divisions in the western United States, the northern Midwest, and parts of the Southeast and Texas had positive averages, indicating bias away from drought. The standard deviation of the SPI also differed from the expected value of 1. These regional patterns in the NCEI's SPI values are the result of a different (sliding) calibration period, 1895-2019, instead of the cited standardized period of 1931-90. The authors recommend that the NCEI modify its SPI computational procedure to reflect the best practices identified in the benchmark papers, namely, a fixed baseline period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate predictions tailored to the wind energy sector represent an innovation in the use of climate information to better manage the future variability of wind energy resources. Wind energy users have traditionally employed a simple approach that is based on an estimate of retrospective climatological information. Instead, climate predictions can better support the balance between energy demand and supply, as well as decisions relative to the scheduling of maintenance work. One limitation for the use of the climate predictions is the bias, which has until now prevented their incorporation in wind energy models because they require variables with statistical properties that are similar to those observed. To overcome this problem, two techniques of probabilistic climate forecast bias adjustment are considered here: a simple bias correction and a calibration method. Both approaches assume that the seasonal distributions are Gaussian. These methods are linear and robust and neither requires parameter estimation-essential features for the small sample sizes of current climate forecast systems. This paper is the first to explore the impact of the necessary bias adjustment on the forecast quality of an operational seasonal forecast system, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts seasonal predictions of near-surface wind speed to produce useful information for wind energy users. The results reveal to what extent the bias adjustment techniques, in particular the calibration method, are indispensable to produce statistically consistent and reliable predictions. The forecast-quality assessment shows that calibration is a fundamental requirement for high-quality climate service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates that the split-window approach for estimating cloud properties can improve upon the methods commonly used for generating cloud temperature and emissivity climatologies from satellite imagers. Because the split-window method provides cloud properties that are consistent for day and night, it is ideally suited for the generation of a cloud climatology from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), which provides sampling roughly four times per day. While the split-window approach is applicable to all clouds, this paper focuses on its application to cirrus (high semitransparent ice clouds), where this approach is most powerful. An optimal estimation framework is used to extract estimates of cloud temperature, cloud emissivity, and cloud microphysics from the AVHRR split-window observations. The performance of the split-window approach is illustrated through the diagnostic quantities generated by the optimal estimation approach. An objective assessment of the performance of the algorithm cloud products from the recently launched space lidar [Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation/Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIPSO/CALIOP)] is used to characterize the performance of the AVHRR results and also to provide the constraints needed for the optimal estimation approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The systematic bias of the estimated average temperature using daily Tmax and Tmin records relative to the standard average temperature of four time-equidistant observations and its effect on the estimated trend of long-term temperature change have not been well understood. This paper attempts to evaluate the systematic bias across mainland China using the daily data of national observational stations. The results revealed that the positive bias of annual mean temperature was large, reaching 0.58°C nationally on average; regional average bias was lowest in the northwest arid region and highest in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau; the bias was low in spring and summer and high in autumn and winter, reaching its lowest point in mid- and late May and highest point in early November. Furthermore, the bias showed a significant upward trend in the past 50 years, with a rising rate of 0.021°C (10 yr)−1, accounting for about 12% of the overall warming as estimated from the data of the observational network; the largest positive trend bias was found in the northwest arid region, while the east monsoon region experienced the smallest change; the most remarkable increase of the bias occurred after early 1990s. These results indicate that the customarily applied method to calculate daily and monthly mean temperature using Tmax and Tmin significantly overestimates the climatological mean and the long-term trend of surface air temperature in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plotting order-ranked data is a standard technique that is used in estimating the probability of extreme weather events. Typically, observations, say, annual extremes of a period of N years, are ranked in order of magnitude and plotted on probability paper. Some statistical model is then fitted to the order-ranked data by which the return periods of specific extreme events are estimated. A key question in this method is as follows: What is the cumulative probability P that should be associated with the sample of rank m? This issue of the so-called plotting positions has been debated for almost a century, and a number of plotting rules and computational methods have been proposed. Here, it is shown that in estimating the return periods there is only one correct plotting position: P = m/(N + 1). This formula predicts much shorter return periods of extreme events than the other commonly used methods. Thus, many estimates of the weather-related risks should be reevaluated and the related building codes and other related regulations updated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A geographical information system (GIS) perspective is taken to examine conceptual and methodological complications present in tornado density and probability mapping. Tornado density is defined as the inverse-distance-weighted count of tornado touchdown points or tornado-affected cells within a neighborhood area. The paper first adds a few geographic elements into the tornado definition and then characterizes tornado density as a density field in GIS that depends on predefined, modifiable areas to exist. Tornado density is therefore conceptually distinguished from both individual tornadoes and tornado probability. Three factors are identified to be vital in tornado density mapping: the neighborhood size, the distance decay function, and the choice of tornado properties. Correspondingly, 12 neighborhood sizes ranging from 20 to 360 km are tested, four distance decay functions are compared, and two tornado properties-tornado touchdown locations and pathlengths-are separately incorporated in mapping. GIS interpretations, clarifications, and demonstrations are provided for these factors to reach a thorough understanding of how the factors function and affect the resultant tornado density maps. Historical tornado data of the eastern half of the United States from 1973 to 2013 are used in these demonstrations. Uncertainty and propagation analyses are recommended for future tornado density and probability mapping, and a Monte Carlo simulation using tornado pathlength data is conducted as an example of uncertainty modeling. In all, tornado density mapping is diagnosed as a largely subjective activity, and the mapper needs to make multiple choices according to the mapping purpose, scale, and the involved tornado record data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heat such as that seen in the United States and Europe in summer 2022 can have significant impacts on human health and infrastructure. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the U.S. Army use wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) to quantify the impact of heat on workers and inform decisions on workload. WBGT is a weighted average of air temperature, natural wet-bulb temperature, and black globe temperature. A local hourly, daily, and monthly WBGT climatology will allow those planning outdoor work to minimize the likelihood of heat-related disruptions. In this study, WBGT is calculated from the ERA5 reanalysis and is validated by the Oklahoma Mesonet and found to be adequate. Two common methods of calculating WBGT from meteorological observations are compared. The Liljegren method has a larger diurnal cycle than the Dimiceli method, with a peak WBGT about 1°F higher. The high- and extreme-risk categories in the southern U.S. Great Plains (USGP) have increased from 5 days per year to 15 days from 1960 to 2020. Additionally, the largest increases in WBGT are occurring during DJF, potentially lengthening the warm season in the future. Heat wave definitions based on maximum, minimum, and mean WBGT are used to calculate heat wave characteristics and trends with the largest number of heat waves occurring in the southern USGP. Further, the number of heat waves is generally increasing across the domain. This study shows that heat wave days based on minimum WBGT have increased significantly which could have important impacts on human heat stress recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the assumptions, equations, and procedures of the RheaG weather generator algorithm (WGA). RheaG was conceived for the generation of robust daily meteorological time series, whether in static or transient climate conditions. Here we analyze its performance in four Iberian locations—Bilbao, Barcelona, Madrid, and Sevilla—with differentiated climate characteristics. To validate the RheaG WGA, we compared observed and generated meteorological time series' statistical properties of precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature for all four locations. We also compared observed and simulated rain events spell length probabilities in all four locations. Finally, RheaG includes two weather generation procedures: one in which monthly mean values for meteorological variables are unconstrained and one in which they are constrained according to a predefined baseline climate variability. Here, we compare the two weather generation procedures included in RheaG using the observed data from Barcelona. Our results present a high agreement in the statistical properties and the rain spell length probabilities between observed and generated meteorological time series. Our results show that RheaG accurately reproduces seasonal patterns of the observed meteorological time series for all four locations, and it is even able to differentiate two climatic seasons in Bilbao that are also present in the observed data. We find a trade-off between generation procedures in which the unconstrained procedure better reproduces the variability of monthly and yearly precipitation than the constrained one, but the constrained procedure is able to keep the same climatic signal across meteorological time series. Thus, the first procedure is more accurate, but the latter is able to maintain spatial autocorrelation among generated meteorological time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of soil moisture on the surface-layer atmosphere is examined in this paper by analyzing the outputs of model simulations for different initial soil moisture configurations, with particular emphasis on urban microclimate. In addition to a control case, four different soil moisture distributions within the urban and surrounding rural areas are considered in this study. Outputs from the Global Environmental Multiscale atmospheric model simulations are compared with observations from the Joint Urban 2003 experiment held in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and the relevant conclusions drawn in this paper are therefore valid for similar medium-size cities. In general, high soil moisture is found to be associated with colder near-surface temperature and lower near-surface wind speed, whereas drier soil resulted in warmer temperatures and enhanced low-level wind. Relative to urban soil moisture content, rural soil conditions are predicted to have larger impacts on both rural and urban surface-layer meteorological conditions. Dry rural and wet urban soil configurations are shown to have a strong influence on the urban-rural temperature contrast and resulted in city-induced secondary circulations that considerably affect the near-surface wind speed. Dry rural soil in particular is found to intensify the nocturnal low-level jet and significantly affect the thermal stability of nocturnal near-neutral urban surface layer by altering both thermal and mechanical generation of turbulence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The properties of clouds derived from measurements collected using a suite of remote sensors on board the Australian R/V Investigator during a 5-week voyage into the Southern Ocean during March and April 2016 are examined. Based on the findings presented in a companion paper (Part I), we focus our attention on a subset of marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds that form a substantial portion of the cloud-coverage fraction. We find that the MBL clouds that dominate the coverage fraction tend to occur in decoupled boundary layers near the base of marine inversions. The thermodynamic conditions under which these clouds are found are reminiscent of marine stratocumulus studied extensively in the subtropical eastern ocean basins except that here they are often supercooled with a rare presence of the ice phase, quite tenuous in terms of their physical properties, rarely drizzling, and tend to occur in migratory high pressure systems in cold-air advection. We develop a simple cloud property retrieval algorithm that uses as input the lidar-attenuated backscatter, the W-band radar reflectivity, and the 31-GHz brightness temperature. We find that the stratocumulus clouds examined have water paths in the 15-25 gm-2 range, effective radii near 8 µm, and number concentrations in the 20 cm-3 range in the Southern Ocean with optical depths in the range of 3-4. We speculate that addressing the high bias in absorbed shortwave radiation in climate models will require understanding the processes that form and maintain these marine stratocumulus clouds in southern mid- and high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lightning is a natural hazard that can lead to the ignition of wildfires, disruption and damage to power and telecommunication infrastructures, human and livestock injuries and fatalities, and disruption to airport activities. This paper examines the ability of six statistical and machine-learning classification techniques to distinguish between nonlightning and lightning days at the coarse spatial and temporal scales of current general circulation models and reanalyses. The classification techniques considered were 1) a combination of principal component analysis and logistic regression, 2) classification and regression trees, 3) random forests, 4) linear discriminant analysis, 5) quadratic discriminant analysis, and 6) logistic regression. Lightning-flash counts at six locations across Australia for 2004-13 were used, together with atmospheric variables from the ERA-Interim dataset. Tenfold cross validation was used to evaluate classification performance. It was found that logistic regression was superior to the other classifiers considered and that its prediction skill is much better than using climatological values. The sets of atmospheric variables included in the final logistic-regression models were primarily composed of spatial mean measures of instability and lifting potential, along with atmospheric water content. The memberships of these sets varied among climatic zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decadal prediction is a relatively new branch of climate science that bridges the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and multidecadal-to-century projections of climate change. This paper develops a three-step framework toward the potential application of decadal temperature predictions using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). In step 1, the predictions are evaluated and it is found that the temperature hindcasts show skill over some regions of the United States and Canada. In step 2, the predictions are manipulated using two methods: a deterministic-anomaly approach (like climate change projections) and a probabilistic tercile-based approach (like seasonal forecasts). In step 3, the predictions are translated by adding a delta (for the anomaly manipulation) and conducting a weighted resample (for the probabilistic manipulation), as well as using a new hybrid method. Using the 2010 initialized hindcast, the framework is demonstrated for predicting 2011-15 over two case-study watersheds [Ottawa (Canada) and Colorado]. For the Colorado watershed, there was a noticeable shift toward higher temperatures, and the delta, weighted resample, and hybrid translations all were better at capturing the observed temperatures than was an approach that used climatological values. For the Ottawa watershed, the observed temperatures over the period of prediction were only subtly different than the climatological values; therefore, the difference between the translation methods was less noticeable. The advantages and disadvantages of the manipulation and translation approaches are discussed, as well as how their use will depend on the user context. The authors emphasize that skill evaluations should be tailored to particular applications and identify additional steps that are needed before the decadal temperature predictions can be readily incorporated into applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inference about time series in weather data can be made in several ways. Current practice focuses on computing summary measures, such as mean and variance, or constructing a reference year from small subsets of data derived from multiple years. Some applications require the selection of an instance of observed data over a fixed time frame, typically a year or more, for modeling. In addition, many current methods do not include rainfall as a parameter of interest. This paper reviews and refines existing methods for determining a reference year by creating a metric that measures the (abstract) distance between observed patterns of rainfall. The reference year is then chosen from a group of potential reference years. This method is computationally efficient, easily explained, and robust against differences in the index of reporting, to include leap years. Application of the distance metric to data from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Norfolk, Virginia, shows that it appropriately identifies not only the years that are most typical for a location, but extreme years as well. Both are particularly useful in applications related to urban hydrology, which formed the basis for development of this method. Results also demonstrate that the proposed method is functionally different than existing methods. The distance metric represents an evolutionary step forward, overcomes some difficulties present from other approaches, and would be applicable to a number of cross-disciplinary applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposure to weather extremes, such as heatwaves, can cause discomfort, harm, or death in grazing cattle in pastures. While the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues sheep graziers alerts when there is an exposure risk to chill for livestock, there is no equivalent alert for heat stress for Australian cattle. Before any such alert system can be developed, a robust assessment and comparison of relevant cattle thermal stress indices is required. This study evaluates and compares the multiyear climatology of three cattle thermal heat stress indices across Australia in the warm season months (October–March). The same indices are then used to assess historical Australian heat events where cattle died from heat exposure. These events are based off official records and survey responses from northern Australian graziers. In the seven historical heat events studied, high relative humidity combined with low wind speeds, or high solar exposure combined with high surface temperatures, exacerbated the impact of heat stress on cattle. In the two historic events where multiple compounding weather factors combined (e.g., high humidity, low winds, and high solar exposure), the cattle mortality levels were significantly high. These events were characterized by rainy conditions followed by a rapid warming, meaning cattle were likely unable to acclimatize to such dramatic temperature changes. This study highlights the need for using more than one thermal stress index when verifying cattle heat stress events and, importantly, calls for further research on standardizing the risk classifications of these thermal indices for cattle in Australia's variable climate. Significance Statement: Cattle across Australia's northern tropical and semiarid regions often experience extreme hot and humid conditions in the summer months, which increases the risk of heat stress. This is the first study of its kind to evaluate observations of cattle heat stress across Australia using indices that describe the combined effects of solar exposure, wind speed, relative humidity, and surface temperatures. These cattle heat stress indices can be used to evaluate historical cattle mortality events in feedlots and in grazed pastures. This study lays the groundwork for the development of Australian-wide cattle heat stress forecast products on the 7-day to multiweek time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigated the translation speed and intensity change characteristics for landfalling North American tropical cyclones (TCs) from 1971 to 2020. We calculated three variables—intensity change, mean translation speed, and translation speed change—prior to each TC landfall and investigated the climatology of these variables for seven coastal segments. We found that lower-latitude segments generally had greater positive intensity changes prior to landfall, and higher-latitude segments had greater translation speeds. Longitude primarily influenced translation speed changes, with landfalling TCs along the Atlantic coast of the United States notably accelerating prior to landfall. Temporal trends in each of these variables were inconsistent geographically, but most segments showed an increase in positive intensity changes over time, demonstrating the increasing likelihood of intensifying TCs before landfall in recent years. We defined extreme intensification and extreme weakening as the 90th and 10th percentile of all landfalling TC intensity changes, respectively. We found that extreme intensification and weakening have been increasing and decreasing in frequency, respectively. Results from this study can be used in a variety of future applications, including in operational forecasting and model production, and provide a baseline for climate attribution studies investigating extreme intensity change events. Significance Statement: Landfalling tropical cyclones pose significant hazards to life and property in coastal regions across North America. This study develops a comprehensive climatology of intensity change and translation speed of tropical cyclones during the final 36 h prior to landfall. We found that incidences of extreme intensification and weakening of landfalling North American tropical cyclones have increased and decreased, respectively, since 1971. We also identify lower-latitude coastal segments tend to average faster translation speeds that higher-latitude segments, while segments on the east coast of the United States tended to average a greater acceleration. These results show the importance of looking at tropical cyclone characteristics regionally and provide a useful baseline to assess how tropical cyclone risk is changing in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of the affect of weather and climate on human activities requires the construction of impact models that are able to describe the complex links between weather and socioeconomic data. In practice, one of the biggest challenges is the lack of data, because it is generally difficult to obtain time series that are long enough. As a consequence, derived impact models predict well the historical record but are unable to perform well on real forecasts. To avoid this data-limitation problem, it is possible to train the impact model over a large spatial domain by 'pooling' data from multiple locations. This general impact model needs to be spatially corrected to take local conditions into account, however. This is particularly true, for example, in agriculture: it is not efficient to pool all of the spatial data into a single very general impact model, but it is also not efficient to develop one impact model for each spatial location. To solve these aggregation problems, mixed-effects (ME) models have been developed. They are based on the idea that each datum belongs to a particular group, and the ME model takes into account the particularities of each group. In this paper, ME models and, in particular, random-effects (RE) models are tested and are compared with more-traditional methods using a real-world application: the sales of salt for winter road deicing by public service vehicles. It is shown that the performance of RE models is higher than that of more-traditional regression models. The development of impact models should strongly benefit from the use of RE and ME models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Episodic dust events cause hazardous air quality along Utah's Wasatch Front and dust loading of the snowpack in the adjacent Wasatch Mountains. This paper presents a climatology of episodic dust events of the Wasatch Front and adjoining region that is based on surface weather observations from the Salt Lake City International Airport (KSLC), Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery, and additional meteorological datasets. Dust events at KSLC--defined as any day [mountain standard time (MST)] with at least one report of a dust storm, blowing dust, and/or dust in suspension with a visibility of 10 km or less--average 4.3 per water year (WY: October-September), with considerable interannual variability and a general decline in frequency during the 1930--2010 observational record. The distributions of monthly dust-event frequency and total dust flux are bimodal, with primary and secondary maxima in April and September, respectively. Dust reports are most common in the late afternoon and evening. An analysis of the 33 most recent (2001-10 WY) events at KSLC indicates that 11 were associated with airmass convection, 16 were associated with a cold front or baroclinic trough entering Utah from the west or northwest, 4 were associated with a stationary or slowly moving front or baroclinic trough west of Utah, and 2 were associated with other synoptic patterns. GOES imagery from these 33 events, as well as 61 additional events from the surrounding region, illustrates that emission sources are located primarily in low-elevation Late Pleistocene-Holocene alluvial environments in southern and western Utah and southern and western Nevada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In common with much of the western United States, the Pacific Northwest (defined in this paper as Washington and Oregon) has experienced an unusual number of droughts in the past decade. This paper describes three of these droughts in terms of the precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture anomalies, and discusses different drought impacts experienced in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). For the first drought, in 2001, low winter precipitation in the PNW produced very low streamflow that primarily affected farmers and hydropower generation. For the second, in 2003, low summer precipitation in Washington (WA), and low summer precipitation and a warm winter in Oregon (OR) primarily affected streamflow and forests. For the last, in 2005, a lack of snowpack due to warm temperatures during significant winter precipitation events in WA, and low winter precipitation in OR, had a variety of different agricultural and hydrologic impacts. Although the proximal causes of droughts are easily quantified, the ultimate causes are not as clear. Better precipitation observations in the PNW are required to provide timely monitoring of conditions leading to droughts to improve prediction in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The historical climate record and seasonal temperature and precipitation records provide useful datasets for making short-term drought predictions. A variety of methods have exploited these resources, but few have quantitatively measured uncertainties associated with predictions of drought index values commonly used in management plans. In this paper, stochastic approaches for estimating uncertainty are applied to drought index predictions. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal forecasts and resampling of nearest-neighbor residuals are incorporated to measure uncertainty in monthly forecasts of Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) in central South Carolina. Kuiper skill scores of PDSI indicate good forecast performance with up to 3-month lead time and improvements for 1-month-lead SPI forecasts. NOAA CPC climate outlook improved the forecast skill by as much as 40%, and the degree of improvement varies by season and forecast lead time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five years (2000–04) of spatially complete snow-free land surface albedo data have been produced using high-quality-flagged diffuse bihemispherical (white sky) and direct-beam directional hemispherical (black sky) land surface albedo data derived from observations taken by the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the NASA Terra satellite platform (MOD43B3, collection 4). In addition, a spatially complete snow-free aggregate albedo climatological product was generated. These spatially complete products were prepared using an ecosystem-dependent temporal interpolation technique that retrieves missing data within 3%–8% error. These datasets have already been integrated into research and operational projects that require snow-free land surface albedo. As such, this paper provides details regarding the spatial and temporal distribution of the filled versus the original MOD43B3 data. The paper also explores the intra- and interannual variation in the 5-yr data record and provides a qualitative comparison of zonal averages and annual cycles of the filled versus the original MOD43B3 data. The analyses emphasize the data’s inter- and intraannual variation and show that the filled data exhibit large- and small-scale phenological behavior that is qualitatively similar to that of the original MOD43B3. These analyses thereby serve to showcase the inherent spectral, spatial, and temporal variability in the MOD43B3 data as well as the ability of the fill technique to preserve these unique regional and pixel-level phenological characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the mean spatial features of the winds in the Mediterranean and Black Seas using the wind fields observed by the SeaWinds scatterometer. Five years (2000–04) of data have been analyzed on annual and seasonal basis, with particular attention paid to the meso- and local scales. The fields show the existence of structured regional wind systems—in particular, the mistral in the western Mediterranean and the etesians in the Levantine Basin, which are characterized, respectively, by high wind variability and moderate steadiness and by low wind variability and high steadiness. Estimated seasonal mean wind stress τ fields show that the values falling in the top range 0.15 < τ < 0.20 N m-2 affect a large portion of the Mediterranean Basin in winter, in the belt extending from the Gulf of Lion up to the Levantine Basin and the northern Black Sea. In the other seasons, only few regions experience such high values of τ. The analysis of the wind vorticity shows and quantifies the main cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations, and the study of the joint features of wind stress and vorticity has identified the strongest and most persisting local-scale wind circulations produced by the interaction between the wind flow and the orography. They occur at the lee side of Sardinia–Corse and Crete–Rhodos Islands and persist in all seasons, with some seasonal variation in strength and extent. The areas affected by the orographic disturbances are characterized by high values of wind stress and by a structure of vorticity showing alternating areas of cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations, whose strength is comparable to those of the regional-scale cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends the work of Dinku and Anagnostou overland rain retrieval algorithm for use with Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) observations. In Dinku and Anagnostou, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) rainfall estimates were used to calibrate TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrieval. Regional differences in PR-based TMI calibration were investigated by testing the algorithm over four geographic regions, consisting of Africa, northern South America (containing the Amazon basin), the continental United States, and south Asia. In this paper the performance of Dinku and Anagnostou's technique applied on SSM/I data over three of these regions (Africa, Amazon, and South Asia) is demonstrated. Two approaches are investigated for using PR rainfall products to calibrate the algorithm parameters. In the first approach, TMI channels are remapped to the spatial resolutions of the corresponding SSM/I channels; then, PR is used to calibrate the rain retrieval on the remapped TMI data. In the second approach, the PR-based TMI algorithm calibration is performed at a coarser (0.25°) resolution. To assess the quality of algorithm estimates with respect to PR, rainfall fields derived from Dinku and Anagnostou, applied to SSM/I observations (using parameters determined from both approaches), are compared with matched (within ±15 min of the satellites' overpass time difference) PR surface rain rates. Calibration data come from the wet seasons (January–March) of 2000 and 2001. To assess the quality of the estimates with respect to PR, data from a 5-month period (December–April) of 2002, 2003, and 2004 are used. In comparison with the latest version of the Goddard profiling (GPROF) algorithm rain estimates, the current algorithm shows significant improvements in terms of both bias and random error reduction. The paper also shows that rain estimation based on TMI observations is associated with lower error statistics in comparison with the corresponding SSM/I retrievals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior research evaluating snowfall conditions and temporal trends in the United States often acknowledges the role of various synoptic-scale weather systems in governing snowfall variability. While synoptic classifications have been performed in other regions of North America in applications to snowfall, there remains a need for enhanced understanding of the atmospheric mechanisms of snowfall in the central United States. Here we conduct a novel synoptic climatological investigation of the weather systems responsible for snowfall in the central United States from 1948 to 2021 focused on their identification and the quantification of associated snowfall totals and events. Ten unique synoptic weather types (SWTs) were identified, each resulting in distinct regions of enhanced snowfall across the study domain aligning with regions of sufficiently cold air temperatures and forcing mechanisms. While a substantial proportion of seasonal snowfall is attributed to SWTs associated with surface troughs and/or midlatitude cyclones, in portions of the southeastern and western study domain, as much as 70% of seasonal snowfall occurs during systems with high pressure centers as the domain's synoptic-scale forcing. Easterly flow, potentially resulting in topographic uplift from high pressure to east of the domain, was associated with between 15% and 25%of seasonal snowfall in Nebraska and South Dakota. On average, 64.8% of the SWT occurrences resulted in snowfall within the study region, ranging between 40.1%and 93.5%by SWT. Synoptic climatological investigations provide valuable insights into the unique weather systems that generate hydroclimatic variability. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: By evaluating the weather patterns that are responsible for snowfall in the central United States, key insights can be gained into how and why snowfall varies and potentially changes over space and time. Using an approach that categorizes weather patterns based on their similarities, here 10 unique snowfall-producing weather patterns are identified and analyzed from 1948 to 2021. Each pattern resulted in different snowfall amounts across the central United States, varying substantially spatially and within the calendar year. Approximately 65% of the time that these weather patterns occur, snowfall is observed in the region. The majority of snowfall-producing weather patterns are associated with low pressure systems, but in some regions up to 70% of snowfall is associated with instances of high pressure in which winds can cause upward motions associated with topography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term global gridded datasets of observed precipitation are essential for the analysis of the global water and energy cycle, its variability, and possible changes. Several institutions provide those datasets. In 2005 the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) published the so-called Variability Analysis of Surface Climate Observations (VASClimO) dataset. This dataset is especially designed for the investigation of temporal change and variability. To date, however, the GPCC has not published how this dataset has been produced. This paper aims to fill this gap. It provides detailed information on how stations are selected and how data are quality controlled and interpolated. The dataset is based only on station records covering at least 90% of the period 1951-2000. The time series of 9343 stations were used. However, these stations are distributed very inhomogeneously around the globe; 4094 of these stations are within Germany and France. The VASClimO dataset is interpolated from relative deviations of observed monthly precipitation, leading to considerably lower interpolation errors than direct interpolation or the interpolation of absolute deviations. The retransformation from interpolated relative deviations to precipitation is done with local long-term averages of precipitation interpolated from data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The VASClimO dataset has been interpolated with a method that is based on local station correlations (LSC) that is introduced here. It is compared with ordinary kriging and three versions of Shepard's method. LSC outperforms these methods, especially with respect to the spatial maxima of interpolation errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall monitoring products have been extended to provide spatially contiguous rainfall estimates across Africa. This has been achieved through a new, climatology-based calibration, which varies in both space and time. As a result, cumulative estimates of rainfall are now issued at the end of each 10-day period (dekad) at 4-km spatial resolution with pan-African coverage. The utility of the products for decision making is improved by the routine provision of validation reports, for which the 10-day (dekadal) TAMSAT rainfall estimates are compared with independent gauge observations. This paper describes the methodology by which the TAMSAT method has been applied to generate the pan-African rainfall monitoring products. It is demonstrated through comparison with gauge measurements that the method provides skillful estimates, although with a systematic dry bias. This study illustrates TAMSAT's value as a complementary method of estimating rainfall through examples of successful operational application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, statistical properties of rainfall are derived from 14 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data to optimize the use of flight hours for the upcoming High Altitude Ice Crystals (HAIC)/High Ice Water Content (HIWC) program. This program aims to investigate the convective processes responsible for the generation of the high ice water content that has been recognized as a threat to civil aviation. The probability that convective cells are conducive to HIWC is also further investigated using three years of C-band polarimetric radar data. Further insights into the variability of convective rainfall and favorable conditions for HIWC are also gained using two different methods to characterize the large-scale atmospheric conditions around Darwin, Australia (the Madden-Julian oscillation and the Darwin atmospheric regimes), and the underlying surface type (oceanic vs continental). The main results from the climatology relevant to flight-plan decision making are (i) convective cells conducive to HIWC should be found close to Darwin, (ii) at least 90% of convective cells are conducive to HIWC at 10- and 12-km flight levels, (iii) multiple flights per day in favorable large-scale conditions will be needed so as to utilize the 150 project flight hours, (iv) the largest numbers of HIWC radar pixels are found around 0300 and 1500 local time, and (v) to fulfill the requirement to fly 90 h in oceanic convection and 60 h in or around continental convection, a minimum 'acceptable' size of the convective area has been derived and should serve as a guideline for flight-decision purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background error modeling plays a key role in a variational data assimilation system. The National Meteorological Center (NMC) method has been widely used in variational data assimilation systems to generate a forecast error ensemble from which the climatological background error covariance can be modeled. In this paper, the characteristics of the background error modeling via the NMC method are investigated for the variational data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Var) Model. The background error statistics are extracted from short-term 3-km-resolution forecasts in June, July, and August 2012 over a limited-area domain. It is found 1) that background error variances vary from month to month and also have a feature of diurnal variations in the low-level atmosphere and 2) that u- and υ-wind variances are underestimated and their autocorrelation length scales are overestimated when the default control variable option in WRF-Var is used. A new approach of control variable transform (CVT) is proposed to model the background error statistics based on the NMC method. The new approach is capable of extracting inhomogeneous and anisotropic climatological information from the forecast error ensemble obtained via the NMC method. Single observation assimilation experiments show that the proposed method not only has the merit of incorporating geographically dependent covariance information, but also is able to produce a multivariate analysis. The results from the data assimilaton and forecast study of a real convective case show that the use of the new CVT improves synoptic weather system and precipitation forecasts for up to 12 h. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme snow ablation can greatly impact regional hydrology, affecting streamflow, soil moisture, and groundwater supplies. Relatively little is known about the climatology of extreme ablation events in the eastern United States, and the causal atmospheric forcing mechanisms behind such events. Studying the Susquehanna River basin over a 50-yr period, here we evaluate the variability of extreme ablation and river discharge events in conjunction with a synoptic classification and global-scale teleconnection pattern analysis. Results indicate that an average of 4.2 extreme ablation events occurred within the basin per year, where some 88% of those events resulted in an increase in river discharge when evaluated at a 3-day lag. Both extreme ablation and extreme discharge events occurred most frequently during instances of southerly synoptic-scale flow, accounting for 35.7% and 35.8% of events, respectively. However, extreme ablation was also regularly observed during high pressure overhead and rain-on-snow synoptic weather types. The largest magnitude of snow ablation per extreme event occurred during occasions of rain-on-snow, where a basinwide, areal-weighted 5.7 cm of snow depth was lost, approximately 23% larger than the average extreme event. Interannually, southerly flow synoptic weather types were more frequent during winter seasons when the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations were positively phased. Approximately 30% of the variance in rain-on-snow weather type frequency was explained by the Pacific–North American pattern. Evaluating the pathway of physical forcing mechanisms from regional events up through global patterns allows for improved understanding of the processes resulting in extreme ablation and discharge across the Susquehanna basin. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to better understand how certain weather patterns are related to extreme snowmelt and streamflow events and what causes those weather patterns to vary with time. This is valuable information for informing hazard preparation and resource management within the basin. We found that weather patterns with southerly winds were the most frequent patterns responsible for extreme melt and streamflow, and those patterns occurred more often when the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations were in their "positive" configuration. Future work should consider the potential for these patterns, and related impacts, to change over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an improved edition of the climate division dataset for the conterminous United States (i.e., version 2). The first improvement is to the input data, which now include additional station networks, quality assurance reviews, and temperature bias adjustments. The second improvement is to the suite of climatic elements, which now includes both maximum and minimum temperatures. The third improvement is to the computational approach, which now employs climatologically aided interpolation to address topographic and network variability. Version 2 exhibits substantial differences from version 1 over the period 1895-2012. For example, divisional averages in version 2 tend to be cooler and wetter, particularly in mountainous areas of the western United States. Division-level trends in temperature and precipitation display greater spatial consistency in version 2. National-scale temperature trends in version 2 are comparable to those in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network whereas version 1 exhibits less warming as a result of historical changes in observing practices. Divisional errors in version 2 are likely less than 0.5°C for temperature and 20 mm for precipitation at the start of the record, falling rapidly thereafter. Overall, these results indicate that version 2 can supersede version 1 in both operational climate monitoring and applied climatic research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes and evaluates a satellite rainfall estimation technique that combines infrared and lightning information to estimate precipitation in deep convective systems. The algorithm is developed and tested using seven years (2002-08) of TRMM measurements over the southern United States during the warm season. Lightning information is coupled with a modified IR-based convective-stratiform technique (CST) and produces a lightning-enhanced CST (CSTL). Both the CST and CSTL are then applied to the training (2002-04) and independent (2005-08) datasets. In general, this study shows significant improvement over the IR rainfall estimates (rain area, intensity, and volume) by adding lightning information. The CST and CSTL display critical skill in estimating warm-season precipitation and the performance is very stable. The CST can generally identify the heavy (convective) and light rain regions, while CSTL further identifies convective areas that are missed by CST and removes convective cores that are incorrectly defined by CST. Specifically, the CSTL improves the convective cell detection by 5% and reduces the convective false alarm rate by more than 30%. Similarly, CSTL substantially improves the CST in the overall estimate of instantaneous rainfall rates. For example, when compared with passive microwave estimates, CSTL increases the correlation coefficient by 30%, reduces the bias by 50%, and reduces RMSE by 25%. Both CST and CSTL reproduce the rain area and volume fairly accurately over a region, although both techniques show some degree of overestimation relative to radar estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to improve the characterization of satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) and their errors to guide developments in the use of AMVs in numerical weather prediction. AMVs tend to exhibit considerable systematic and random errors that arise in the derivation or the interpretation of AMVs as single-level point observations of wind. One difficulty in the study of AMV errors is the scarcity of collocated observations of clouds and wind. This study uses instead a simulation framework: geostationary imagery for Meteosat-8 is generated from a high-resolution simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model, and AMVs are derived from sequences of these images. The forecast model provides the 'truth' with a sophisticated description of the atmosphere. The study considers infrared and water vapor AMVs from cloudy scenes. This is the first part of a two-part paper, and it introduces the framework and provides a first evaluation in terms of the brightness temperatures of the simulated images and the derived AMVs. The simulated AMVs show a considerable global bias in the height assignment (60-75 hPa) that is not observed in real AMVs. After removal of this bias, however, the statistics comparing the simulated AMVs with the true model wind show characteristics that are similar to statistics comparing real AMVs with short-range forecasts (speed bias and root-mean-square vector difference typically agree to within 1 m s−1). This result suggests that the error in the simulated AMVs is comparable to or larger than that in real AMVs. There is evidence for significant spatial, temporal, and vertical error correlations, with the scales for the spatial error correlations being consistent with estimates for real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the second part of a two-part paper whose main objective is to improve the characterization of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) and their errors to guide developments in the use of AMVs in numerical weather prediction (NWP). AMVs tend to exhibit considerable systematic and random errors. These errors can arise in the AMV derivation or the interpretation of AMVs as single-level point estimates of wind. An important difficulty in the study of AMV errors is the scarcity of collocated observations of clouds and wind. The study uses instead a simulation framework: geostationary imagery for Meteorological Satellite-8 ( Meteosat-8) is generated from a high-resolution simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model, and AMVs are derived from sequences of these simulated images. The NWP model provides the 'truth' with a sophisticated description of the atmosphere. This second part focuses on alternative interpretations of AMVs. The key results are 1) that interpreting the AMVs as vertical and horizontal averages of wind can give some benefits over the traditional single-level interpretation (improvements in RMSVD of 5% for high-level AMVs and 20% for low-level AMVs) and 2) that there is evidence that AMVs are more representative of either a wind average over the model cloud layer or wind at a representative level within the cloud layer than of wind at the model cloud top or cloud base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the capability of the Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR) model to accurately characterize the meteorological parameters and radiative transfer effects of the atmospheric boundary layer with surface observations or climatological values of temperature, pressure, and humidity ('climatology'). The LEEDR model is a fast-calculating, first-principles, worldwide surface-to-100-km, ultraviolet-to-radio-frequency (UV to RF) wavelength, atmospheric characterization package. In general, LEEDR defines the well-mixed atmospheric boundary layer with a worldwide, probabilistic surface climatology that is based on season and time of day and, then, computes the radiative transfer and propagation effects from the vertical profile of meteorological variables. The LEEDR user can also directly input surface observations. This research compares the LEEDR vertical profiles created from input surface observations or numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with the LEEDR climatological profile for the same time of day and season. The different profiles are compared with truth radiosonde data, and the differences from truth are found to be smaller for profiles created from surface observations and NWP than for those made from climatological data for the same season and time. In addition, this research validates LEEDR's elevated aerosol extinction profile vertical structure against observed lidar measurements and details the advantages of using NWP data for atmospheric profile development. The impacts of these differences are demonstrated with a potential tactical high-energy-laser engagement simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1981-2010 'U.S. Climate Normals' released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center include a suite of monthly, seasonal, and annual statistics that are based on precipitation, snowfall, and snow-depth measurements. This paper describes the procedures used to calculate the average totals, frequencies of occurrence, and percentiles that constitute these normals. All parameters were calculated from a single, state-of-the-art dataset of daily observations, taking care to produce normals that were as representative as possible of the full 1981-2010 period, even when the underlying data records were incomplete. In the resulting product, average precipitation totals are available at approximately 9300 stations across the United States and parts of the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean islands. Snowfall and snow-depth statistics are provided for approximately 5300 of those stations, as compared with several hundred stations in the 1971-2000 normals. The 1981-2010 statistics exhibit the familiar climatological patterns across the contiguous United States. When compared with the same calculations for 1971-2000, the later period is characterized by a smaller number of days with snow on the ground and less total annual snowfall across much of the contiguous United States; wetter conditions over much of the Great Plains, Midwest, and northern California; and drier conditions over much of the Southeast and Pacific Northwest. These differences are a reflection of the removal of the 1970s and the addition of the 2000s to the 30-yr-normals period as part of this latest revision of the normals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate data often suffer from artificial inhomogeneities, resulting from documented or undocumented events. For a time series to be used with confidence in climate analysis, it should only be characterized by variations intrinsic to the climate system. Many methods (e.g., direct or indirect) have been proposed according to the data characteristics (e.g., location, variable, or data completeness). This paper is focused on the abrupt-changes problem (when the properties of a time series change abruptly), when their timing is known, and suggests that a nonparametric regression framework provides an appealing way to correct for discontinuities in such a way as to recognize and allow for the existence of other structures such as seasonality and long-term smooth trends. The approach is illustrated by using reanalysis data for southern Africa, for which discontinuities are present because of the introduction of satellite technology in 1979. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a new gridded, daily 29-yr precipitation estimation dataset centered over Africa at 0.1° spatial resolution. Called the African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2), it is a revision of the first version of the ARC. Consistent with the operational Rainfall Estimation, version 2, algorithm (RFE2), ARC2 uses inputs from two sources: 1) 3-hourly geostationary infrared (IR) data centered over Africa from the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) and 2) quality-controlled Global Telecommunication System (GTS) gauge observations reporting 24-h rainfall accumulations over Africa. The main difference with ARC1 resides in the recalibration of all Meteosat First Generation (MFG) IR data (1983-2005). Results show that ARC2 is a major improvement over ARC1. It is consistent with other long-term datasets, such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), with correlation coefficients of 0.86 over a 27-yr period. However, a marginal summer dry bias that occurs over West and East Africa is examined. Daily validation with independent gauge data shows RMSEs of 11.3, 13.4, and 14, respectively, for ARC2, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42, version 6 (3B42v6), and the CPC morphing technique (CMORPH) for the West African summer season. The ARC2 RMSE is slightly higher for Ethiopia than those of CMORPH and 3B42v6. Both daily and monthly validations suggested that ARC2 underestimations may be attributed to the unavailability of daily GTS gauge reports in real time, and deficiencies in the satellite estimate associated with precipitation processes over coastal and orographic areas. However, ARC2 is expected to provide users with real-time monitoring of the daily evolution of precipitation, which is instrumental in improved decision making in famine early warning systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil temperature can exhibit considerable memory from weather and climate signals and is among the most important initial conditions in numerical weather and climate models. Consequently, a more accurate long-term land surface soil temperature dataset is needed to improve weather and climate simulation and prediction, and is also important for the simulation of agricultural crop yield and ecological processes. The North American Land Data Assimilation phase 2 (NLDAS-2) has generated 31 years (1979-2009) of simulated hourly soil temperature data with a spatial resolution of ⅛°. This dataset has not been comprehensively evaluated to date. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to assess Noah-simulated soil temperature for different soil depths and time scales. The authors used long-term (1979-2001) observed monthly mean soil temperatures from 137 cooperative stations over the United States to evaluate simulated soil temperature for three soil layers (0-10, 10-40, and 40-100 cm) for annual and monthly time scales. Short-term (1997-99) observed soil temperatures from 72 Oklahoma Mesonet stations were used to validate simulated soil temperatures for three soil layers and for daily and hourly time scales. The results showed that the Noah land surface model generally matches observed soil temperature well for different soil layers and time scales. At greater depths, the simulation skill (anomaly correlation) decreased for all time scales. The monthly mean diurnal cycle difference between simulated and observed soil temperature revealed large midnight biases in the cold season that are due to small downward longwave radiation and issues related to model parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a new computationally efficient and statistically robust sampling method for generating dynamically downscaled climatologies. It is based on a Monte Carlo method coupled with stratified sampling. A small yet representative set of 'case days' is selected with guidance from a large-scale reanalysis. When downscaled, the sample closely approximates the long-term meteorological record at a location, in terms of the probability density function. The method is demonstrated for the creation of wind maps to help determine the suitability of potential sites for wind energy farms. Turbine hub-height measurements at five U.S. and European tall tower sites are used as a proxy for regional climate model (RCM) downscaled winds to validate the technique. The tower-measured winds provide an independent test of the technique, since RCM-based downscaled winds exhibit an inherent dependence upon the large-scale reanalysis fields from which the case days are sampled; these same reanalysis fields would provide the boundary conditions to the RCM. The new sampling method is compared with the current approach widely used within the wind energy industry for creating wind resource maps, which is to randomly select 365 case days for downscaling, with each day in the calendar year being represented. The new method provides a more accurate and repeatable estimate of the long-term record of winds at each tower location. Additionally, the new method can closely approximate the accuracy of the current (365 day) industry approach using only a 180-day sample, which may render climate downscaling more tractable for those with limited computing resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The NOAA National Climatic Data Center maintains tables for temperature and precipitation extremes in each of the U.S. states. Many of these tables were several years out of date, however, and therefore did not include a number of recent record-setting meteorological observations. Furthermore, there was no formal process for ensuring the currency of the tables or evaluating observations that might tie or break a statewide climate record. This paper describes the evaluation and revision of the statewide climate-extremes tables for all-time maximum and minimum temperature, greatest 24-h precipitation and snowfall, and greatest snow depth (the five basic climate elements observed on a daily basis by the NOAA Cooperative Weather Network). The process resulted in the revision of 40% of the values listed in those tables and underscored both the necessity of manual quality-assurance methods and the importance of continued climate-monitoring and data-rescue activities to ensure that potential record values are not overlooked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work analyzes and classifies stratospheric airmass transport events (ST) detected at the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid (NCO-P; 27°57′N, 86°48′E, 5079 m MSL) Global Atmospheric Watch-World Meteorological Organization station from March 2006 to February 2008. For this purpose, in situ ozone (O3), meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure and relative humidity), and black carbon (BC) are analyzed. The paper describes the synoptic-scale meteorological scenarios that are able to favor the development of ST over the southern Himalaya, by analyzing the meteorological fields provided by the ECMWF model (geopotential height, wind speed, and potential vorticity), satellite Ozone Monitoring Instrument data (total column ozone), and three-dimensional back trajectories calculated with the Lagrangian Analysis Tool (LAGRANTO) model. The study, which represents the first 'continuous' classification of ST in the southern Himalaya, permitted classification of 94% of ST days within four synoptic-scale scenarios: stratospheric potential vorticity structures (PVS), subtropical jet stream (SJS), quasi-stationary ridges (QSR), and monsoon depressions (MD). SJS and PVS were the most frequent scenarios (48% and 30% of occurrences, respectively), QSR occurred for 12% of the ST days, and MD were detected only during the monsoon season (3%). SJS and PVS scenarios presented a peak frequency during the nonmonsoon seasons, when the jet stream and westerly disturbances influence atmospheric circulation over the southern Himalaya. During the identified ST, significant variations of O3 (+24%) and BC (−56%) were recorded relative to the averaged 2-yr mean values. On average, PVS and SJS were the most effective synoptic-scale scenarios in modifying the O3 and BC levels at NCO-P from postmonsoon to premonsoon seasons, and ST is one of the leading processes in defining the 'background' BC variability at NCO-P. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes the Collection-6 refinements in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) operational cloud-top properties algorithm. The focus is on calibration improvements and on cloud macrophysical properties including cloud-top pressure-temperature-height and cloud thermodynamic phase. The cloud phase is based solely on infrared band measurements. In addition, new parameters will be provided in Collection 6, including cloud-top height and a flag for clouds near the tropopause. The cloud parameters are improved primarily through 1) improved knowledge of the spectral response functions for the MODIS 15- μm carbon dioxide bands gleaned from comparison of coincident MODIS and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance measurements and 2) continual comparison of global MODIS and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations ( CALIPSO) instantaneous cloud products throughout the course of algorithm refinement. Whereas the cloud-top macrophysical parameters were provided through Collection 5 solely at 5-km spatial resolution, these parameters will be available additionally at 1-km spatial resolution in Collection 6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many regions of the world, the extremes of winter cold are a major determinant of the geographic distribution of perennial plant species and of their successful cultivation. In the United States, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Plant Hardiness Zone Map (PHZM) is the primary reference for defining geospatial patterns of extreme winter cold for the horticulture and nursery industries, home gardeners, agrometeorologists, and plant scientists. This paper describes the approaches followed for updating the USDA PHZM, the last version of which was published in 1990. The new PHZM depicts 1976-2005 mean annual extreme minimum temperature, in 2.8°C (5°F) half zones, for the conterminous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. Station data were interpolated to a grid with the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climate-mapping system. PRISM accounts for the effects of elevation, terrain-induced airmass blockage, coastal effects, temperature inversions, and cold-air pooling on extreme minimum temperature patterns. Climatologically aided interpolation was applied, based on the 1971-2000 mean minimum temperature of the coldest month as the predictor grid. Evaluation of a standard-deviation map and two 15-yr maps (1976-90 and 1991-2005 averaging periods) revealed substantial vertical and horizontal gradients in trend and variability, especially in complex terrain. The new PHZM is generally warmer by one 2.8°C (5°F) half zone than the previous PHZM throughout much of the United States, as a result of a more recent averaging period. Nonetheless, a more sophisticated interpolation technique, greater physiographic detail, and more comprehensive station data were the main causes of zonal changes in complex terrain, especially in the western United States. The updated PHZM can be accessed online (). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections that was developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process and that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well versed in risk management, helped to preselect the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and is consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 GCMs and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-yr average future time slices relative to a 30-yr model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. On the basis of these methods, the current 1-in-10-year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme-event frequency are highly uncertain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]