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Aim Within the past few decades, seven of the 25 historically described populations of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps) in the Great Basin of arid western North America appear to have become extinct. In this paper, the prehistoric record for pikas in the Great Basin is used to place these losses in deeper historical context. Location The Great Basin, or area of internal drainage, of the western United States. Methods The location, elevation, and age of all reported prehistoric Great Basin specimens of American pikas were extracted from the literature. Elevations of extinct pika populations were arrayed through time, and latitudes and longitudes of those populations used to determine changing distances of those populations from the nearest extant populations. Results The average elevation of now-extinct Great Basin pika populations during the late Wisconsinan ( c. 40,000–10,000 radiocarbon years ago) and early Holocene ( c. 10,000–7500 years ago) was 1750 m. During the hot and dry middle Holocene ( c. 7500–4500 years ago), the average elevation of these populations rose 435 m, to 2168 m. All prehistorically known late Holocene ( c. 4500–200 years ago) populations in the Great Basin are from mountain ranges that currently support populations of this animal, but historic period losses have caused the average elevation of pika populations to rise an additional 152 m. The total elevational increase, from the late Wisconsinan and early Holocene to today, has been 783 m. As lower elevation pika populations were lost, their distribution increasingly came to resemble its modern form. During the late Wisconsinan, now-extinct pika populations were located an average of 170 km from the nearest extant population. By the late Holocene, this distance had declined to 30 km. Main conclusions Prehistoric alterations in the distribution of pika population in the Great Basin were driven by climate change and attendant impacts on vegetation. Today, Great Basin pikas contend with both climate change and anthropogenic impacts and thus may be on the brink of extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The assumedly anomalous occurrence of savannas and forest–savanna mosaics in the Gran Sabana – a neotropical region under a climate more suitable for tropical rain forests – has been attributed to a variety of historical, climatic, and anthropogenic factors. This paper describes a previously undocumented shift in vegetation and climate that occurred during the early Holocene, and evaluates its significance for the understanding of the origin of the Gran Sabana vegetation. Location A treeless savanna locality of the Gran Sabana (4°30′–6°45′ N and 60°34′–62°50′ W), in the Venezuelan Guayana of northern South America, at the headwaters of the Caroní river, one of the major tributaries of the Orinoco river. Methods Pollen and charcoal analysis of a previously dated peat section spanning from about the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary until the present. Results Mesothermic cloud forests dominated by Catostemma (Bombacaceae) occupied the site around the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary. During the early Holocene, a progressive but relatively rapid trend towards savanna vegetation occurred, and eventually the former cloud forests were replaced by a treeless savanna. Some time after the establishment of savannas, a marked increase in charcoal particles indicates the occurrence of the first local fires. Main conclusions The occurrence of cloud forests at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary contradicts the historical hypothesis according to which the Gran Sabana is a relict of the hypothetical widespread savannas that have been assumed to have dominated the region during the last glaciation. The first local fires recorded in the Holocene were on savanna vegetation, which is against the hypothesis of fire as the triggering factor for the establishment of these savannas. Climate change, in the form of global warming and a persistently drier climate, emerges as the most probable cause for the forest–savanna turnover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vegetation of subantarctic Campbell Island consists mainly of lowland Dracophyllum scrub and upland tussock grassland and tundra. Soon after the island was discovered in 1810, occupation by sealers and whalers led to localized burning and cutting of scrub. Further burning and cutting took place as a result of sheep farming between 1894 and 1931. Since the earliest photographs and vegetation descriptions of the island in the late nineteenth century, scrub cover has expanded markedly. Also, since the 1960s, the island has become warmer and drier. The aim of this paper is to quantify scrub changes as depicted in photo-sequences from the island, and to establish if the spread of scrub is a result of the cessation of anthropogenic activities or a response to global warming. Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°33.7′S, 169°09′E). Changes in scrub cover in the island were established through analysis of 33 photographic sequences in the island, the earliest photos dating back to 1888. Visual estimates were made of percentage woody cover in matching areas of repeat photographs, and of changes in scrub distribution with altitude and landscape type. Dracophyllum scrub was restricted at the time of the first photographs (1888) relative to its present extent, and earlier written observations suggest that there had been little change from the 1840s. Scrub cover has subsequently increased in most areas. Most of the spread occurred after the cessation of farming. Change has mostly consisted of a thickening and expansion of pre-existing scrub patches. There is no indication that the upper elevational limit of scrub has increased. Initial reduction of scrub was probably due to anthropogenic fire in the early nineteenth century, although it is possible that less favourable climates had also restricted its distribution. Failure of the scrub to regenerate significantly between 1840 and c. 1895 may also have been a consequence of generally cooler, wetter climates at this time. Rapid scrub expansion began between the end of farming and burning in 1931 and 1988 when the remaining feral sheep were removed. Sheep grazing in the absence of fire reduced competition, and encouraged regeneration and growth of woody scrub. Spread was probably assisted by a pronounced shift to warmer, drier climates in the second half of the twentieth century. Upper elevational limits of scrub have not increased, suggesting that factors other than summer temperature are controlling scrub line in this superoceanic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species interactions are predicted to become stronger toward low latitudes and elevations, and these predictions have been supported in large experiments measuring daily predation rates on early life‐stages. However, the overall strength and importance of predation depend on both the daily risk of being attacked and how long prey are exposed, and gradients in exposure time are rarely quantified. Here, we test whether time‐to‐germination, which determines seeds' exposure to post‐dispersal attack, is faster in high‐predation environments: low latitudes, low elevations, and warmer wetter climates. Location: Global data synthesis. Taxon: Angiosperms. Methods: We synthesized data on time‐to‐germination from 1410 plant species spanning 118° latitude. We divided data by study environment (lab, greenhouse, garden, nature), as we predicted different patterns depending on whether seeds experienced only intrinsic versus intrinsic + extrinsic germination cues. We tested how mean days‐to‐germination varied with geography (latitude, elevation) and climate (annual mean and seasonality of temperature and precipitation). We also explored whether patterns could be explained by seed size or phylogeny, which vary latitudinally. Results: Seeds germinated faster toward higher latitudes across study environments but slower toward higher elevations when experiencing intrinsic + extrinsic germination cues (in nature). Germination was faster in drier, more seasonal and—when tested in nature—warmer environments. Seed size explained some latitudinal variation in time‐to‐germination, whereas accounting for phylogeny did not improve predictions. Germination was slower in natural versus lab environments. Main Conclusions: We found little evidence that seeds have commonly evolved faster germination in high‐predation environments. While time‐to‐germination varied with geography and climate, patterns were inconsistent among predictors, and were weaker than those reported for daily seed predation rates. Detected gradients in time‐to‐germination would partially counter elevational gradients in daily seed predation rates but exacerbate latitudinal gradients in predation rates, such that tropical seeds likely experience much stronger lifetime predation risk than high‐latitude seeds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Altitudinal and latitudinal treeline ecotones have not consistently responded to climate warming in the direction and/or magnitude predicted by climate alone, suggesting that non‐climatic mechanisms (e.g. biotic interactions) also mediate treeline range dynamics. Through a collaborative research approach, we assessed environmental conditions associated with pre‐dispersal insect cone granivory and how this biotic interaction may govern the reproductive potential, and therefore range dynamics, of spruce‐dominated treelines across northern Canada. Location: In all, 10 boreal forest treelines, tundra and alpine, from Yukon to Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. Taxa: White spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), Black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.), Strobilomyia spp., Megastigmus spp. Methods: Treeline sites were assessed for presence and magnitude of pre‐dispersal seed granivory by insects along with viable seed availability. We quantified stand density metrics, organic layer depth and understorey vegetation composition at each location and, subsequently, incorporated those variables into generalized linear mixed models to establish predictors of granivory magnitude and viability of available seed. Results: Insect granivory was widespread across sites; however, site‐specific patterns of granivory were associated with increased moss cover and decreased shrub cover and stand density. While all black spruce‐dominated sites exhibited seed viability rates > 50%, the number of seeds produced per cone varied, suggesting that within‐site abiotic conditions and biotic interaction pressures limit successful colonization of novel environments in advance of seed dispersal. Main Conclusions: The modelled relationships between granivory, seed viability and environmental conditions represent an essential step towards generalizing how and when biotic interactions across subarctic treelines influence boreal tree range dynamics before seed dispersal. Connections between granivory magnitude and site‐level treeline characteristics (e.g. stand density, understorey vegetation) will provide a more comprehensive understanding of treeline range dynamics under continued climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Abundances of animals vary according to species‐specific habitat selection, but habitats are undergoing rapid change in response to anthropogenic alterations of land use and climate. The long‐term decline of snowfall is one of the most dramatic abiotic changes in boreal regions, with potential to alter species communities and shape future ecosystems. However, the effects of snow cover on habitat‐specific abundances remain unclear for many taxa. Here we explore whether long‐term declines in snow cover affect the abundances of overwintering birds. Taxon Fifty bird species. Location: Finland, Northern Europe. Methods: We used generalized linear mixed models to analyse citizen‐led monitoring data from 196 transects over a 32‐year period to assess whether abundances of birds have changed in built‐up areas, farmlands and forests, and whether these covary with warming temperatures and decreasing snow. We then explored if changes in abundance can be explained by body mass, migration strategy or feeding guilds of the species. Results: Over the study period, the abundance of overwintering birds increased. This increase was most pronounced in farmlands (69.6%), where abundances were positively associated with decreasing snow depth. On the other hand, while abundances in built‐up habitats (19.5%) decreased over the study period, they increased in periods of high snow depths. Finally, we found that the short‐distance migration strategy explains changes in bird abundances with snow. In farmlands, ground feeding birds and heavier birds also show a positive trends in abundance with decreasing snow depths. Main conclusions: Local snow conditions are driving habitat selection of birds in the winter; birds in farmlands were most responsive to a decrease in snow depth. Changing snow depths can affect bird movements across habitats in the winter, but also influence migratory patterns and range shifts of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical climates and the biodiversity associated with them have long interested natural historians. Alexander von Humboldt inspired a generation of scientists, such as Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, to observe and study tropical ecosystems. More recently, the mid-20th century saw Theodosius Dobzhansky and Daniel Janzen lay the foundations for studying adaptation to tropical climates. Now in the 21st century, we are beginning to realize the threats posed by current and future climate change to tropical populations which, despite relatively low levels of projected warming for low-latitude regions, face potentially significant detrimental impacts. Building on the insights of researchers in decades and centuries past, improved understanding of tropical ecology, evolution and biogeography will help us to conceive how future global change will impact on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The climate variability hypothesis (CVH) predicts that locations with reduced seasonal temperature variation select for species with narrower thermal ranges. Here we (a) test the CVH by assessing the effect of latitude and elevation on the thermal ranges of Andean vascular plant species and communities, and (b) assess tropical alpine plants vulnerability to warming based on their thermal traits. Location: High tropical Andes. Taxon: Vascular plants. Methods: Temperature data for 505 vascular plant species from alpine communities on 49 summits, were extracted from 29,627 georeferenced occurrences. Species thermal niche traits (TNTs) were estimated using bootstrapping for: minimum temperature, optimum (mean) temperature and breadth (maximum‐minimum). Plant community‐weighted scores were estimated using the TNTs of their constituent species. CVH was tested for species, biogeographical species groups and communities. Vulnerability to global warming was assessed for species, biogeographical species groups and communities. Results: Species restricted to the equator showed narrower thermal niche breadth than species whose ranges stretch far from the equator, however, no difference in niche breadth was found across summits' elevation. Biogeographical species groups distributed close to the equator and restricted to alpine regions showed narrower niche breadth than those with broader ranges. Community‐weighted scores of thermal niche breadth were positively related to distance from equator but not to elevation. Based on their TNTs, species restricted to equatorial latitudes and plant communities dominated by these species were identified as the most vulnerable to the projected 1.5°C warming, due to a potentially higher risk of losing thermal niche space. Main conclusions: Our study confirms that the CVH applies to high tropical Andean plant species and communities, where latitude has a strong effect on the thermal niche breadth. TNTs are identified as suitable indicators of species' vulnerability to warming and are suggested to be included in long‐term biodiversity monitoring in the Andes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: Reconstruct the long‐term ecosystem dynamics of the region across an elevational gradient as they relate to climate and local controls. In particular, we (1) describe the dominant conifers' history; (2) assess changes in vegetation composition and distribution; and (3) note periods of abrupt change versus stability as means of better understanding vegetation responses to environmental variability. Location: Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE; USA). Time period: 16.5 ka bp‐present. Major taxa studied: Juniperus, Picea, Abies, Pinus, Pseudotsuga. Methods: The vegetation reconstruction was developed from 15 pollen records. Results were interpreted based on modern pollen–vegetation relationships estimated from a suite of regression‐based approaches. Results: Calibrated pollen data suggest that late‐glacial vegetation, dominated by shrubs and Juniperus, lacks a modern counterpart in the area. Picea, Abies and Pinus expanded at 16 ka bp in association with postglacial warming and co‐occurred in mixed‐conifer parkland/forest after 12 ka bp. This association along with Pinus contorta forest, which was present after 9 ka bp, has persisted with little change at middle and high elevations to the present day. This stability contrasts with the dynamic history of plant communities at low elevations, where shifts between parkland, steppe and forest over the last 8,000 years were likely driven by variations in effective moisture and fire. Main conclusions: The postglacial vegetation history of the GYE highlights the dynamic nature of mountain ecosystems and informs on their vulnerability to future climate change: (1) most of the conifers have been present in the area for >12,000 years and survived climate change by adjusting their elevational ranges; (2) some plant associations have exhibited stability over millennia as a result of nonclimatic controls; and (3) present‐day forest cover is elevationally more compressed than at any time in history, probably due to the legacy of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aims: It has been assumed that montane species will undergo upslope shifts in response to climate warming and their range sizes are therefore predicted to decrease. However, this view has been challenged because a recent study (Elsen & Tingley, ) indicated that land surface area increases with increasing altitude in some mountains. To test this prediction, we used one of the world's biodiversity hotspots as a study system to examine overall patterns of plant distribution shift in response to climate warming. Location: The Hengduan Mountains and adjacent regions. Methods: Based on distribution data for 151 species at a resolution of 2.5 arc minutes, we employed ecological niche modelling to model their distributions under the climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum, Current (2017), and 2050 separately. We examined the distributional shifts of these species, especially with respect to altitude and range size, in response to two periods of stepwise climate warming. Results: All the montane plants sampled shifted upward during the two warming stages, but not only northward, some shifted westward or in other directions. In contrast with the expected consistent loss of range when shifting upward, 63.6% of the plants expanded their range size continuously since the LGM. Only 11.9% of the plants contracted their range size continuously from the LGM to 2050. Estimates of species richness in the regions studied changed greatly, but in an unbalanced manner, from the LGM to the Current and from the Current to 2050. Main conclusions: Numerous montane plants in the Hengduan Mountains are predicted to expand their range sizes as they shift upslope in response to climate warming. Our results highlight the possibility that more available land surface area due to the heterogeneous topography along altitudinal gradients and the adjacent large Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau sensu stricto can mediate the range loss of the montane plants under climate warming. These findings are crucial for estimating the future range sizes of plants and planning biodiversity protection for mountain ecosystems under the anticipated warming of the world's climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To describe the distribution of two congeneric species of cave-dwelling spiders under current climatic conditions and future warming scenarios, keeping into account their bioclimatic requirements, dispersal capacity and competition dynamics. Location Europe and North Africa. Methods We gathered detailed occurrence data for Meta menardi and M. bourneti (Araneae: Tetragnathidae) and modelled their distribution across their bioclimatic range. We evaluated the breadth of the bioclimatic niche of the two species and assessed the potential overlap between their multidimensional Hutchinsonian hypervolumes. We compared these results with their current distribution maps obtained by species distribution modelling (SDMs) keeping into account dispersal and competition dynamics, and we projected future trends of distribution according to different climatic scenarios. Results The overall size of the niche hypervolumes of the two species was very similar and highly overlapping. However, when accounting for competition in the model, the predicted ranges of the two species showed only minor areas of overlap. On the base of SDM analysis, we predicted a significant poleward shift in the distribution of both species, with the appearance of a new contact area especially in Central Europe, southern UK, France and northern Spain. Main conclusions Interspecific competition keeps the current ranges of the two European Meta species apart, although their fundamental bioclimatic niches are very similar. Rapid poleward shifts of the two species are likely due to the high dispersal capacity of the two spiders. The case of Meta spiders exemplifies rapid shift in range of distribution associated with global warming, which are unlikely to occur in the case of most cave-dwelling arthropods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Palaeoecological reconstructions document past vegetation change, with estimates of fast shifts in species distributions. The resulting rates of plant spread are often not matched by model simulations of climate-driven vegetation dynamics. Genetic surveys of extant plant populations document directions of the post-glacial spread of trees, challenging traditional interpretations. Our aim is to examine an updated continental pollen data set from Europe in the light of the new ideas about vegetation dynamics emerging from genetic research and vegetation modelling studies. Location Europe. Methods We use pollen data from the European Pollen Database ( EPD) to construct interpolated maps of pollen percentages documenting changes in the distribution and abundance of major plant genera and the grass family in Europe over the last 15,000 years. Results Our analyses confirm high rates of post-glacial spread with at least 1000 m year−1 for Corylus, Ulmus and Alnus and average rates of 400 m year−1 for Tilia, Quercus, Fagus and Carpinus. The late Holocene expansions of Picea and Fagus populations in many European regions cannot be explained by migrational lag. Both taxa shift their population centres towards the Atlantic coast suggesting that climate may have played a role in the timing of their expansions. The slowest rates of spread were reconstructed for Abies. Main conclusions The calculated rates of post-glacial plant spread are higher in Europe than those from North America, which may be due to more rapid shifts in climate mediated by the Gulf Stream and westerly winds. Late Holocene anthropogenic land use practices in Europe had major effects on individual taxa, which in combination with climate change contributed to shifts in areas of abundance and dominance. The high rates of spread calculated from the European pollen data are consistent with rapid tracking of early Holocene climate change by common tree species, documenting that plants can spread fast tracing their climate space, regardless of their dispersal strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To assess the extent of the possible future conflict between skiing and biodiversity driven by climate change, human adaptation and species' distribution shifts. Location Italian Alps. Methods We assessed the extent of the possible future conflict between skiing and biodiversity by predicting locations likely to be suitable for both skiing and for high-elevation birds in the Italian Alps by modelling ski-piste and species presence in relation to climate, topography and habitat. Potential conflict was assessed by comparing the overlap of areas projected as suitable for skiing and those suitable for four high-elevation bird species under different scenarios of climate change for the year 2050. Results Areas suitable for both ski-pistes and birds were projected to contract towards upper elevations, which for birds resulted in an average decrease of 58-67% of suitable area. The degree of overlap between species and skiing was projected to increase, especially for the most valuable sites, that is, those hosting the most species, or the most threatened species. Main conclusions Given the alarming range contractions forecast for high-elevation species, and the potential impact of ski-pistes on those species, it is essential to safeguard high-mountain grasslands against negative effects of ski development. An effective conservation strategy at a landscape scale needs to consider prevention of ski-piste construction in sites of high conservation value. The approach developed here provides a means by which such a strategy could be formulated, and which could be potentially applied elsewhere to investigate the effect of human adaptation on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The American pika ( Ochotona princeps) appears to have experienced climate-mediated upslope range contraction in the Great Basin of North America, but this result has not yet been extended to other portions of the pika's range. Our goals were: first, to determine the environmental parameters that most influence current pika distribution within California; second, to infer whether these constraints explain extirpations that have occurred in California; third, to predict future extirpations; and fourth, to advance methods for assessing the degree to which pikas and other climate-sensitive mammals are threatened by climate change. Location Historical pika record locations in California, USA, spanning four degrees of latitude and longitude, from Mount Shasta to the southern Sierra Nevada. Methods We identified 67 precise historical pika record locations and surveyed them exhaustively, over multiple years, to determine whether pika populations persist at those sites. We used an information theoretic approach and logistic regression to model current pika occupancy as a function of 16 environmental variables, tested our best-performing model as a predictor of historical occupancy, and then used our model to predict future pika occupancy given anticipated climate change. Results Pikas no longer occurred at 10 of 67 (15%) historical sites in California. The best predictors of occupancy were average summer temperature and talus habitat area within a 1-km radius. A logistic model fitted to this relationship correctly predicted current occupancy at 94% of sites and correctly hindcasted past occupancy at 93% of sites, suggesting that the model has strong temporal transferability. Depending on the future climate scenario, our model projects that by 2070 pikas will be extirpated from 39% to 88% of these historical sites in California. Main conclusions Our simple species distribution model for pikas performs remarkably well for both current and historical periods. Pika distribution appears to be governed primarily by behavioural restrictions mediated by summer temperature and by the configuration of talus habitat available to pikas locally. Pikas, and other montane species in the western USA, may be subjected to above-average exposure to climate change because summer temperature is projected to rise more than annual temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We analyse the taxonomic status, phylogenetic relationships, distribution and age of a newly discovered ant taxon found in the mountaintops of the island of Mallorca (Spain). We also consider the potential impact of short-term climate change on the survival of this ant and make proposals on its conservation status, risks and management. Location Balearic Islands (Spain). Methods We used morphological, molecular and ecological evidence to assess the specific status of the potential new species. We gathered distribution data to conduct climate-based distribution modelling of present and future occupancy under several SRES emission scenarios. Results The existence of a new non-cryptic species of ant (Lasius balearicus Talavera, Espadaler & Vila, sp. nov.) is described from the island of Mallorca. Its distribution was found to be extremely restricted (Serra de Tramuntana) and elevationally constrained to island summits (between 800 and 1400 m a.s.l.). Molecular dating indicated that this species diverged about 1.51 million years ago from its nearest relatives, from which it can be distinguished based on several morphological traits. Ecological niche modelling shows a dramatic reduction of areas with suitable climatic conditions under the different scenarios studied. Main conclusions Lasius balearicus represents the first endemic ant to be described in the Balearic Islands, as well as the first endemic Lasius species in the Mediterranean islands. Distribution modelling predictions, the low intraspecific genetic diversity observed, and the geographical and elevational isolation of the populations indicated a low probability for the survival of the species in the short term, thus making it a potential model to study real-time climate-based biodiversity loss. As a consequence, we strongly recommend including L. balearicus in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species under the category 'Endangered'. This case illustrates that a fraction of biodiversity remains unexplored even within Europe, arguably the best-studied region of the planet, and that the available time-window for us to study and protect it may be in some instances notably narrow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change causes shifts in species distributions, or 'migrations'. Despite the centrality of species distributions to biodiversity conservation, the demonstrated large migration of tropical plant species in response to climate change in the past, and the expected sensitivity of species distributions to modern climate change, no study has tested for modern species migrations in tropical plants. Here we conduct a first test of the hypothesis that increasing temperatures are causing tropical trees to migrate to cooler areas. Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot, south-eastern Peru, South America. We use data from repeated (2003/04-2007/08) censuses of 14 1-ha forest inventory plots spanning an elevational gradient from 950 to 3400 m in Manu National Park in south-eastern Peru, to characterize changes in the elevational distributions of 38 Andean tree genera. We also analyse changes in the genus-level composition of the inventory plots through time. We show that most tropical Andean tree genera shifted their mean distributions upslope over the study period and that the mean rate of migration is approximately 2.5-3.5 vertical metres upslope per year. Consistent with upward migrations we also find increasing abundances of tree genera previously distributed at lower elevations in the majority of study plots. These findings are in accord with the a priori hypothesis of upward shifts in species ranges due to elevated temperatures, and are potentially the first documented evidence of present-day climate-driven migrations in a tropical plant community. The observed mean rate of change is less than predicted from the temperature increases for the region, possibly due to the influence of changes in moisture or non-climatic factors such as substrate, species interactions, lags in tree community response and/or dispersal limitations. Whatever the cause(s), continued slower-than-expected migration of tropical Andean trees would indicate a limited ability to respond to increased temperatures, which may lead to increased extinction risks with further climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To determine the effect and relative importance of geographic and local environmental factors on species richness and turnover of ant assemblages in floodplain forests across the Amazon basin. Location Twenty-six mature forest sites scattered along the entire extension of the Amazon River in Brazil. The study area encompassed nearly 18° of longitude and 3.5° of latitude. Methods Systematic collections of ants were performed at each site during the low-water season (i.e. when forests are not inundated) using three complementary sampling methods. We used variance partitioning techniques to assess the relative effects of the spatial (latitude and longitude) and environmental (rainfall, length of the dry season and flood height) variables on ant species richness and composition. Results There was a twofold variation in the number of species per site, which was largely explained by inter-site variations in rainfall seasonality and flooding intensity. In general, there were more species at sites located in the western part of the basin, where the dry season is less severe, or near the river estuary, where precipitation is also high and flooding is less intense. Ant community composition was also affected by environmental heterogeneity. For instance, some species only occurred at those sites less affected by the river’s seasonal flooding, whereas others were mostly associated with the drier or wetter regions of the basin. In addition, the turnover of species increased significantly as geographic distances increased. Nevertheless, the rate of change was small given that many species had a broad distribution across the study area. Main conclusions Ant distribution patterns along the floodplain forests of the Amazon appear to be controlled to a relatively large extent by the current gradient in flooding intensity and – most importantly – in precipitation. Altered rainfall regimes resulting from global warming and land-use change thus have the potential to influence these patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Evolutionary theory predicts that levels of genetic variation in island populations will be positively correlated with island area and negatively correlated with island isolation. These patterns have been empirically established for oceanic islands, but little is known about the determinants of variation on habitat islands. The goals of this study were twofold. Our first aim was to test whether published patterns of genetic variation in mammals occurring on montane habitat islands in the American Southwest conformed to expectations based on evolutionary theory. The second aim of this research was to develop simple heuristic models to predict changes in genetic variation that may occur in these populations as a result of reductions in available mountaintop habitat in response to global warming. Location Habitat islands of conifer forest on mountaintops in the American Southwest. Methods Relationships between island area and isolation with measures of allozyme variation in four species of small mammal, namely the least chipmunk ( Tamias minimus), Colorado chipmunk ( Tamias quadrivittatus), red squirrel ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), and Mexican woodrat ( Neotoma mexicana), were determined using correlation and regression techniques. Significant relationships between island area and genetic variation were used to develop three distinct statistical models with which to predict changes in genetic variation following reduction in insular habitat area arising from global warming. Results Patterns of genetic variation in each species conformed to evolutionary predictions. In general, island area was the most important determinant of heterozygosity, while island isolation was the most important determinant of polymorphism and allelic diversity. The heuristic models predicted widespread reductions in genetic variation, the extent of which depended on the population and model considered. Main conclusions The results support a generalized pattern of genetic variation for any species with an insular distribution, with reduced variation in smaller, more isolated populations. We predict widespread reductions in genetic variation in isolated populations of montane small mammals in the American Southwest as a result of global warming. We conclude that climate-induced reductions in the various dimensions of genetic variation may increase the probability of population extinction in both the short and long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We explore the relationship between current European distributions of amphibian and reptile species and observed climate, and project species potential distributions into the future. Potential impacts of climate warming are assessed by quantifying the magnitude and direction of modelled distributional shifts for every species. In particular we ask, first, what proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to lose and gain suitable climate space in the future? Secondly, do species projections vary according to taxonomic, spatial or environmental properties? And thirdly, what climate factors might be driving projections of loss or gain in suitable environments for species? Location Europe. Methods Distributions of species are modelled with four species—climate envelope techniques (artificial neural networks, generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and classification tree analyses) and distributions are projected into the future using five climate-change scenarios for 2050. Future projections are made considering two extreme assumptions: species have unlimited dispersal ability and species have no dispersal ability. A novel hybrid approach for combining ensembles of forecasts is then used to group linearly covarying projections into clusters with reduced inter-model variability. Results We show that a great proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to expand distributions if dispersal is unlimited. This is because warming in the cooler northern ranges of species creates new opportunities for colonization. If species are unable to disperse, then most species are projected to lose range. Loss of suitable climate space for species is projected to occur mainly in the south-west of Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, whilst species in the south-east are projected to gain suitable climate. This is because dry conditions in the south-west are projected to increase, approaching the levels found in North Africa, where few amphibian species are able to persist. Main conclusions The impact of increasing temperatures on amphibian and reptile species may be less deleterious than previously postulated; indeed, climate cooling would be more deleterious for the persistence of amphibian and reptile species than warming. The ability of species to cope with climate warming may, however, be offset by projected decreases in the availability of water. This should be particularly true for amphibians. Limited dispersal ability may further increase the vulnerability of amphibians and reptiles to changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the pervasive and well-documented effects of global warming on species’ ranges in terrestrial taxa and systems, the effect of sea surface warming has been poorly studied in marine systems. Here we analyse changes in the southern endpoints of distribution of rocky intertidal species (gastropods and chitons) along the Chilean coast, and trends in sea surface temperature (SST), using data collected during the last half-century.South-eastern Pacific coast, between 18°20′ S and 42°35′ S.Past southern endpoints of distribution were obtained for 10 intertidal species from museum collections and literature reviews. Current endpoints are based on field sampling conducted between 1998 and 2000. Changes in the position of southern endpoints were analysed individually for each species, as well as for the entire assemblage of species included in the analysis. SST records encompassing 51–57 years were obtained from five coastal stations located between 18° and 36° S.Most species (eight of 10) did not show expansion of their southern endpoint. The proportion of species expanding, contracting or maintaining their southern limit did not differ from chance expectation. On average, species showed small (1° latitude), non-significant contractions, with low rates of decadal change (0.18° latitude per 10 years). This pattern can be explained by changes in SST, which showed a weak warming trend (and at some sites even cooling) along the Chilean coast during the last 57 years. Our results show that different regional warming trends occur, and suggest that generalizations about poleward shifts in species ranges cannot be made. However, our results support the hypothesis that temperature is a major determinant of species range dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Aim The development of accurate models predicting species range shifts in response to climate change requires studies on the population biology of species whose distributional limits are in the process of shifting. We examine the population biology of an example system using the recent northward range expansion of the marine neogastropod Kelletia kelletii (Forbes, 1852). Location This is a marine coastal shelf neogastropod species whose range extends from Isla Asuncion (Baja California, Mexico) to Monterey (CA, USA). Research sites spanned the extent of the range. Methods We examine abundance distributions and size frequency distributions of K. kelletii for evidence of factors determining historic and contemporary distributional patterns. Population studies were supplemented by historic and contemporary hydrographic data, including seawater temperature data from California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI ) and National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), and seawater circulation data. Results The structure of recently established populations varied dramatically from that of historic populations. Markedly low densities and irregular size frequency distributions characterized recently established populations and suggested only occasionally successful recruitment. The point of transition between historic and recently established populations also corresponded to the location of a gradient in seawater temperature and the confluence of two major oceanic currents. The accumulated data suggest that temperature and/or barriers to dispersal could have set both contemporary patterns in population structure as well as the former northern range limit. Main conclusions Early life stages play a critical role in determining distributional patterns of K. kelletii . Dispersal barriers and temperature limitation are two plausible mechanisms that could determine both contemporary and historic distributional patterns. Future studies on this species should attempt... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Greenhouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 -doubled climatic forcing. Location Global. Methods Migration distances were calculated between grid cells of future biome type x and nearest same-biome-type cells in the current climate. In `base-case' calculations, we assumed that 2 × CO2 climate forcing would occur in 100 years, we used ten biome types and we measured migration distances as straight-line distances ignoring water barriers and human development. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated different time periods of 2 × CO2 climate forcing, more narrowly defined biomes and barriers because of water bodies and human development. Results In the base-case calculations, average migration rates varied significantly according to the GVM used (BIOME3 vs. MAPSS), the age of the GCM (older- vs. newer-generation GCMs), and whether or not GCMs included sulphate cooling or CO2 fertilization effects. However, high migration rates (≥ 1000 m year-1 ) were relatively common in all models, consisting on average of 17% grid cells for BIOME3 and 21% for MAPSS. Migration rates were much higher in boreal and temperate biomes than in tropical biomes. Doubling of the time period of 2 × CO2 forcing reduced these areas of high migration rates to c . 12% of grid cells for both BIOME3 and MAPSS. However, to obtain migration rates in the Boreal biome that were similar in magnitude to those observed for spruce when it followed the retreating North American Glacier, a radical increase in the period of warming was required, from 100 to >1000 years. A reduction in biome area by an order of magnitude increased migration rates by one to three orders of magnitude,... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractAimThe aim of this research was to investigate the potential of the South Florida Cypress Wetlands as a carbon-accumulating system. LocationThis ecosystem is part of the Big Cypress Natural Preserve, located in the south-west part of Florida (USA) between the Mangrove Swamps that border the Gulf of Mexico and the Everglades. MethodsThis investigation was carried out by constructing networks of carbon exchange between the living and nonliving components that comprise this ecosystem. By means of these networks potential for carbon accumulation has been assessed by identifying and quantifying pathways for the transfer of carbon, assessing the efficiency between trophic levels, and evaluating the importance of material cycling. These analyses are commonly referred to as network analysis. ResultsResults obtained show that dependency on detritus by higher trophic levels is rather low and so is the trophic efficiency. Yet, less than 10% of the carbon that flows through the system is recycled and the magnitude of internal ascendency reaches only 40% of the total system ascendency. Main conclusionsAll these results support the hypothesis that the South Florida Cypress Wetlands are predominately flow-through in nature and that carbon accumulation in this environment is noticeable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In spite of decades of intense research directed toward understanding the climates and ecology of the Great Basin (western United States) during the past 10,000 years, the responses of mammals to the extreme aridity of the Middle Holocene (c. 8000–5000 years ago) in this region have been poorly understood. Using a well-dated small mammal sequence from Homestead Cave, north-central Utah, I show that the Middle Holocene small mammal faunas of this area underwent a decrease in species richness and evenness, driven largely by a series of local extinctions and near-extinctions coupled with a dramatic increase in the abundance of taxa well-adapted to xeric conditions. At the end of this period, some taxa that require relatively mesic habitats began to increase in abundance immediately, others did not rebound in abundance until several thousand years later, while still others have not returned at all. This suite of responses has been difficult to detect because climatic change at the beginning of the Middle Holocene was so much more substantial than that which occurred toward its end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]