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Abstract: Aim: Despite several recent efforts to map plant traits and to identify their climatic drivers, there are still major gaps. Global trait patterns for major functional groups, in particular, the differences between woody and herbaceous plants, have yet to be identified. Here, we take advantage of big data efforts to compile plant species occurrence and trait data to analyse the spatial patterns of assemblage means and variances of key plant traits. We tested whether these patterns and their climatic drivers are similar for woody and herbaceous plants. Location: New World (North and South America). Methods: Using the largest currently available database of plant occurrences, we provide maps of 200 × 200 km grid‐cell trait means and variances for both woody and herbaceous species and identify environmental drivers related to these patterns. We focus on six plant traits: maximum plant height, specific leaf area, seed mass, wood density, leaf nitrogen concentration and leaf phosphorus concentration. Results: For woody assemblages, we found a strong climate signal for both means and variances of most of the studied traits, consistent with strong environmental filtering. In contrast, for herbaceous assemblages, spatial patterns of trait means and variances were more variable, the climate signal on trait means was often different and weaker. Main conclusion: Trait variations for woody versus herbaceous assemblages appear to reflect alternative strategies and differing environmental constraints. Given that most large‐scale trait studies are based on woody species, the strikingly different biogeographic patterns of herbaceous traits suggest that a more synthetic framework is needed that addresses how suites of traits within and across broad functional groups respond to climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic vegetation models provide process-based explanations of the dynamics and the distribution of plant ecosystems. They offer significant advantages over static, correlative modelling approaches, particularly for ecosystems that are outside their equilibrium due to global change or climate change. A persistent problem, however, is their parameterization. Parameters and processes of dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are traditionally determined independently of the model, while model outputs are compared to empirical data for validation and informal model comparison only. But field data for such independent estimates of parameters and processes are often difficult to obtain, and the desire to include better descriptions of processes such as biotic interactions, dispersal, phenotypic plasticity and evolution in future vegetation models aggravates limitations related to the current parameterization paradigm. In this paper, we discuss the use of Bayesian methods to bridge this gap. We explain how Bayesian methods allow direct estimates of parameters and processes, encoded in prior distributions, to be combined with inverse estimates, encoded in likelihood functions. The combination of direct and inverse estimation of parameters and processes allows a much wider range of vegetation data to be used simultaneously, including vegetation inventories, species traits, species distributions, remote sensing, eddy flux measurements and palaeorecords. The possible reduction of uncertainty regarding structure, parameters and predictions of DVMs may not only foster scientific progress, but will also increase the relevance of these models for policy advice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To assess at a broad scale the vulnerability of Mediterranean vegetation to alien plant invasion under different climatic and disturbance scenarios. Location We simulated the vegetation biogeography and dynamics on five of the main islands of the Mediterranean Basin: Mallorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Crete and Lesvos. Methods We used LPJ-GUESS, a generalized ecosystem model based on dynamic processes describing establishment, competition, mortality and ecosystem biogeochemistry. We simulated the vegetation distribution and dynamics using a set of plant functional types (PFTs) based on bioclimatic and physiological parameters, which included tree and shrub PFTs defined especially for the Mediterranean. Additionally, two invasive PFTs, an invasive tree type and an invasive herb type, were defined and used to estimate the vulnerability to invasion of a range of different ecosystems. The model was used to simulate climate changes and associated changes in atmospheric [CO2] to 2050 according to two Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate scenarios (A1Fi and B1) combined with mean disturbance intervals of 3 and 40 years. Results The simulations and scenarios showed that the effect of climate change alone is likely to be negligible in many of the simulated ecosystems, although not all. The simulated progression of an invasion was highly dependent on the initial ecosystem composition and local environmental conditions, with a particular contrast between drier and wetter parts of the Mediterranean, and between mountain and coastal areas. The rate of ecosystem disturbance was the main factor controlling susceptibility to invasion, strongly influencing vegetation development on the shorter time scale. Main conclusions Further invasion into Mediterranean island ecosystems is likely to be an increasing problem: our simulations predict that, in the longer term, almost all the ecosystems will be dominated by exotic plants irrespective of disturbance rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents reconstructions of the vegetation patterns in Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) in the mid-Holocene and at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Vegetation patterns were reconstructed from pollen data using an objective biomization scheme based on plant functional types. The biomization scheme was first tested using 535 modern pollen samples from 377 sites, and then applied unchanged to fossil pollen samples dating to 6000 ± 500 or 18,000 ± 1000 14C yr bp. 1. Tests using surface pollen sample sites showed that the biomization scheme is capable of reproducing the modern broad-scale patterns of vegetation distribution. The north–south gradient in temperature, reflected in transitions from cool evergreen needleleaf forest in the extreme south through temperate rain forest or wet sclerophyll forest (WSFW) and into tropical forests, is well reconstructed. The transitions from xerophytic through sclerophyll woodlands and open forests to closed-canopy forests, which reflect the gradient in plant available moisture from the continental interior towards the coast, are reconstructed with less geographical precision but nevertheless the broad-scale pattern emerges. 2. Differences between the modern and mid-Holocene vegetation patterns in mainland Australia are comparatively small and reflect changes in moisture availability rather than temperature. In south-eastern Australia some sites show a shift towards more moisture-stressed vegetation in the mid-Holocene with xerophytic woods/scrub and temperate sclerophyll woodland and shrubland at sites characterized today by WSFW or warm-temperate rain forest (WTRF). However, sites in the Snowy Mountains, on the Southern Tablelands and east of the Great Dividing Range have more moisture-demanding vegetation in the mid-Holocene than today. South-western Australia was slightly drier than today. The single site in north-western Australia also shows conditions drier than today in the mid-Holocene. Changes in the tropics are also comparatively small, but the presence of WTRF and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the mid-Holocene, in sites occupied today by cool-temperate rain forest, indicate warmer conditions. 3. Expansion of xerophytic vegetation in the south and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the north indicate drier conditions across mainland Australia at the LGM. None of these changes are informative about the degree of cooling. However the evidence from the tropics, showing lowering of the treeline and forest belts, indicates that conditions were between 1 and 9 °C (depending on elevation) colder. The encroachment of tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland into lowland evergreen broadleaf forest implies greater aridity. This study provides the first continental-scale reconstruction of mid-Holocene and LGM vegetation patterns from Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) using an objective biomization scheme. These data will provide a benchmark for evaluation of palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Use a regression model that relates climatic variables to the relative abundances of shrubs, C4 and C3 grasses to project the plant functional type composition of temperate grasslands and shrublands within North and South America in response to climate change. Location The temperate zone grassland and shrubland regions of North and South America. Methods We used a regression model to project changes in the relative abundances of shrubs, C4 and C3 grasses under three general circulation model (GFDL, GISS, UKMO) climate change scenarios. The three climate change scenarios were applied to a global data set of mean monthly temperatures and precipitation. The regression model, which incorporates mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation and seasonality of precipitation as input variables, was used to project plant functional type changes. Spatial patterns of change were analysed using a geographical information system. Results Relative abundance of C4 grasses were projected to increase >10% throughout most of the study region at the expense of C3 grasses. There were essentially no areas where C4 grasses decreased in abundance, and the areas with no change were largely the southern Great Plains and the Intermountain Basin and Range of North America. C3 grasses declined throughout with the exception of the north-western Great Plains of the US and Canada, and north central Argentina. Changes in shrub abundance were mixed with some increases in Patagonia and the desert regions of the south-western US; there were also some projected decreases, however, the locations varied across models. Main conclusions The projections made by our regression model were consistent with those of other more complex vegetation dynamics models. Changes in plant community composition in response to climate change may be substantial in certain areas and will probably lead to changes in water and... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThe objective biomization method developed by Prentice et al. (1996) for Europe was extended using modern pollen samples from Beringia and then applied to fossil pollen data to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns at 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp. The predicted modern distribution of tundra, taiga and cool conifer forests in Alaska and north-western Canada generally corresponds well to actual vegetation patterns, although sites in regions characterized today by a mosaic of forest and tundra vegetation tend to be preferentially assigned to tundra. Siberian larch forests are delimited less well, probably due to the extreme under-representation of Larix in pollen spectra. The biome distribution across Beringia at 6000 14C yr bp was broadly similar to today, with little change in the northern forest limit, except for a possible northward advance in the Mackenzie delta region. The western forest limit in Alaska was probably east of its modern position. At 18,000 14C yr bp the whole of Beringia was covered by tundra. However, the importance of the various plant functional types varied from site to site, supporting the idea that the vegetation cover was a mosaic of different tundra types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractBIOME 6000 is an international project to map vegetation globally at mid-Holocene (6000 14C yr bp) and last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr bp), with a view to evaluating coupled climate-biosphere model results. Primary palaeoecological data are assigned to biomes using an explicit algorithm based on plant functional types. This paper introduces the second Special Feature on BIOME 6000. Site-based global biome maps are shown with data from North America, Eurasia (except South and Southeast Asia) and Africa at both time periods. A map based on surface samples shows the method’s skill in reconstructing present-day biomes. Cold and dry conditions at LGM favoured extensive tundra and steppe. These biomes intergraded in northern Eurasia. Northern hemisphere forest biomes were displaced southward. Boreal evergreen forests (taiga) and temperate deciduous forests were fragmented, while European and East Asian steppes were greatly extended. Tropical moist forests (i.e. tropical rain forest and tropical seasonal forest) in Africa were reduced. In south-western North America, desert and steppe were replaced by open conifer woodland, opposite to the general arid trend but consistent with modelled southward displacement of the jet stream. The Arctic forest limit was shifted slighly north at 6000 14C yr bp in some sectors, but not in all. Northern temperate forest zones were generally shifted greater distances north. Warmer winters as well as summers in several regions are required to explain these shifts. Temperate deciduous forests in Europe were greatly extended, into the Mediterranean region as well as to the north. Steppe encroached on forest biomes in interior North America, but not in central Asia. Enhanced monsoons extended forest biomes in China inland and Sahelian vegetation into the Sahara while the African tropical rain forest was also reduced, consistent with a modelled northward shift of the ITCZ and a more seasonal climate in the equatorial zone. Palaeobiome maps show the outcome of separate, independent migrations of plant taxa in response to climate change. The average composition of biomes at LGM was often markedly different from today. Refugia for the temperate deciduous and tropical rain forest biomes may have existed offshore at LGM, but their characteristic taxa also persisted as components of other biomes. Examples include temperate deciduous trees that survived in cool mixed forest in eastern Europe, and tropical evergreen trees that survived in tropical seasonal forest in Africa. The sequence of biome shifts during a glacial-interglacial cycle may help account for some disjunct distributions of plant taxa. For example, the now-arid Saharan mountains may have linked Mediterranean and African tropical montane floras during enhanced monsoon regimes. Major changes in physical land-surface conditions, shown by the palaeobiome data, have implications for the global climate. The data can be used directly to evaluate the output of coupled atmosphere-biosphere models. The data could also be objectively generalized to yield realistic gridded land-surface maps, for use in sensitivity experiments with atmospheric models. Recent analyses of vegetation-climate feedbacks have focused on the hypothesized positive feedback effects of climate-induced vegetation changes in the Sahara/Sahel region and the Arctic during the mid-Holocene. However, a far wider spectrum of interactions potentially exists and could be investigated, using these data, both for 6000 14C yr bp and for the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractPollen and plant macrofossil data from northern Eurasia were used to reconstruct the vegetation of the last glacial maximum (LGM: 18,000 ± 2000 14C yr bp) using an objective quantitative method for interpreting pollen data in terms of the biomes they represent (Prentice et al., 1996). The results confirm previous qualitative vegetation reconstructions at the LGM but provide a more comprehensive analysis of the data. Tundra dominated a large area of northern Eurasia (north of 57°N) to the west, south and east of the Scandinavian ice sheet at the LGM. Steppe-like vegetation was reconstructed in the latitudinal band from western Ukraine, where temperate deciduous forests grow today, to western Siberia, where taiga and cold deciduous forests grow today. The reconstruction shows that steppe graded into tundra in Siberia, which is not the case today. Taiga grew on the northern coast of the Sea of Azov, about 1500 km south of its present limit in European Russia. In contrast, taiga was reconstructed only slightly south of its southern limit today in south-western Siberia. Broadleaved trees were confined to small refuges, e.g. on the eastern coast of the Black Sea, where cool mixed forest was reconstructed from the LGM data. Cool conifer forests in western Georgia were reconstructed as growing more than 1000 m lower than they grow today. The few scattered sites with LGM data from the Tien-Shan Mountains and from northern Mongolia yielded biome reconstructions of steppe and taiga, which are the biomes growing there today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractA new compilation of pollen and packrat midden data from western North America provides a refined reconstruction of the composition and distribution of biomes in western North America for today and for 6000 and 18,000 radiocarbon years before present (14C yr bp). Modern biomes in western North America are adequately portrayed by pollen assemblages from lakes and bogs. Forest biomes in western North America share many taxa in their pollen spectra and it can be difficult to discriminate among these biomes. Plant macrofossils from packrat middens provide reliable identification of modern biomes from arid and semiarid regions, and this may also be true in similar environments in other parts of the world. However, a weighting factor for trees and shrubs must be used to reliably reconstruct modern biomes from plant macrofossils. A new biome, open conifer woodland, which includes eurythermic conifers and steppe plants, was defined to categorize much of the current and past vegetation of the semiarid interior of western North America. At 6000 14C yr bp, the forest biomes of the coastal Pacific North-west and the desert biomes of the South-west were in near-modern positions. Biomes in the interior Pacific North-west differed from those of today in that taiga prevailed in modern cool/cold mixed forests. Steppe was present in areas occupied today by open conifer woodland in the northern Great Basin, while in the central and southern Rocky Mountains forests grew where steppe grows today. During the mid-Holocene, cool conifer forests were expanded in the Rocky Mountains (relative to today) but contracted in the Sierra Nevada. These differences from the forests of today imply different climatic histories in these two regions between 6000 14C yr bp and today. At 18,000 14C yr bp, deserts were absent from the South-west and the coverage of open conifer woodland was greatly expanded relative to today. Steppe and tundra were present in much of the region now covered by forests in the Pacific North-west. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractPollen data from 18,000 14C yr bp were compiled in order to reconstruct biome distributions at the last glacial maximum in southern Europe and Africa. Biome reconstructions were made using the objective biomization method applied to pollen counts using a complete list of dryland taxa wherever possible. Consistent and major differences from present-day biomes are shown. Forest and xerophytic woods/scrub were replaced by steppe, both in the Mediterranean region and in southern Africa, except in south-western Cape Province where fynbos (xerophytic scrub) persisted. Sites in the tropical highlands, characterized today by evergreen forest, were dominated by steppe and/or xerophytic vegetation (cf. today’s Ericaceous belt and Afroalpine grassland) at the last glacial maximum. Available data from the tropical lowlands are sparse but suggest that the modern tropical rain forest was largely replaced by tropical seasonal forest while the modern seasonal or dry forests were encroached on by savanna or steppe. Montane forest elements descended to lower elevations than today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractA biomization method, which objectively assigns individual pollen assemblages to biomes (Prentice et al., 1996), was tested using modern pollen data from Japan and applied to fossil pollen data to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp Biomization started with the assignment of 135 pollen taxa to plant functional types (PFTs), and nine possible biomes were defined by specific combinations of PFTs. Biomes were correctly assigned to 54% of the 94 modern sites. Incorrect assignments occur near the altitudinal limits of individual biomes, where pollen transport from lower altitudes blurs the local pollen signals or continuous changes in species composition characterizes the range limits of biomes. As a result, the reconstructed changes in the altitudinal limits of biomes at 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp are likely to be conservative estimates of the actual changes. The biome distribution at 6000 14C yr bp was rather similar to today, suggesting that changes in the bioclimate of Japan have been small since the mid-Holocene. At 18,000 14C yr bp the Japanese lowlands were covered by taiga and cool mixed forests. The southward expansion of these forests and the absence of broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forests reflect a pronounced year-round cooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractPollen data have been used to construct biome maps for today, 6000 14C yr bp and 18,000 14C yr bp for Canada and the eastern United States. The inferred modern biome distributions agree well with independent reconstructions of North American vegetation prior to European settlement. Some discrepancies between the pollen data and the modern potential vegetation are caused by post-settlement clearing of the landscape and the consequent increase of herbaceous types in the recent pollen record. Biome distributions at 6000 14C yr bp reflected the warmer and drier conditions then prevalent in the continental interior, but the overall position of biomes was similar to that of today. The boreal treeline in North America was not significantly north of its present position, in contrast to the 100–200 km shift reported for Siberia. At the last glacial maximum (18,000 14C yr bp), steppe and tundra were prevalent in the Midwest and north-western Canada, and coniferous forests and woodlands grew in eastern North America. The open vegetation at 18,000 14C yr bp was probably due to drier conditions and/or lower concentrations of atmospheric CO2. The composition and physical structure of biomes is not constant over time. Mid-Holocene biomes were similar in structure to those of today, but shifts in the relative importance of individual plant functional types are large enough that the physical properties of biomes, such as albedo, canopy conductance and surface roughness, are likely to have varied even during the Holocene. Last glacial maximum biomes were structurally different from their modern counterparts. The biome maps therefore may obscure significant vegetational changes in space and time during the late Quaternary. The difference between the highest and next highest affinity scores for each sample measures how strongly affinity scores discriminate among biomes. For many biomes, the difference is not large, and affinity score ties are not uncommon, highlighting the importance of tie-break procedures when using the biomization method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractPollen data from China for 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp were compiled and used to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns, using complete taxon lists where possible and a biomization procedure that entailed the assignment of 645 pollen taxa to plant functional types. A set of 658 modern pollen samples spanning all biomes and regions provided a comprehensive test for this procedure and showed convincing agreement between reconstructed biomes and present natural vegetation types, both geographically and in terms of the elevation gradients in mountain regions of north-eastern and south-western China. The 6000 14C yr bp map confirms earlier studies in showing that the forest biomes in eastern China were systematically shifted northwards and extended westwards during the mid-Holocene. Tropical rain forest occurred on mainland China at sites characterized today by either tropical seasonal or broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest. Broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest occurred further north than today, and at higher elevation sites within the modern latitudinal range of this biome. The northern limit of temperate deciduous forest was shifted c. 800 km north relative to today. The 18,000 14C yr bp map shows that steppe and even desert vegetation extended to the modern coast of eastern China at the last glacial maximum, replacing today’s temperate deciduous forest. Tropical forests were excluded from China and broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest had retreated to tropical latitudes, while taiga extended southwards to c. 43°N. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThe objective biomization method developed by Prentice et al. (1996) for Europe was extended using modern pollen samples from Beringia and then applied to fossil pollen data to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns at 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp. The predicted modern distribution of tundra, taiga and cool conifer forests in Alaska and north-western Canada generally corresponds well to actual vegetation patterns, although sites in regions characterized today by a mosaic of forest and tundra vegetation tend to be preferentially assigned to tundra. Siberian larch forests are delimited less well, probably due to the extreme under-representation of Larix in pollen spectra. The biome distribution across Beringia at 6000 14C yr bp was broadly similar to today, with little change in the northern forest limit, except for a possible northward advance in the Mackenzie delta region. The western forest limit in Alaska was probably east of its modern position. At 18,000 14C yr bp the whole of Beringia was covered by tundra. However, the importance of the various plant functional types varied from site to site, supporting the idea that the vegetation cover was a mosaic of different tundra types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossil pollen data supplemented by tree macrofossil records were used to reconstruct the vegetation of the Former Soviet Union and Mongolia at 6000 years. Pollen spectra were assigned to biomes using the plant-functional-type method developed by Prentice et al. (1996). Surface pollen data and a modern vegetation map provided a test of the method. This is the first time such a broad-scale vegetation reconstruction for the greater part of northern Eurasia has been attempted with objective techniques. The new results confirm previous regional palaeoenvironmental studies of the mid-Holocene while providing a comprehensive synopsis and firmer conclusions. West of the Ural Mountains temperate deciduous forest extended both northward and southward from its modern range. The northern limits of cool mixed and cool conifer forests were also further north than present. Taiga was reduced in European Russia, but was extended into Yakutia where now there is cold deciduous forest. The northern limit of taiga was extended (as shown by increased Picea pollen percentages, and by tree macrofossil records north of the present-day forest limit) but tundra was still present in north-eastern Siberia. The boundary between forest and steppe in the continental interior did not shift substantially, and dry conditions similar to present existed in western Mongolia and north of the Aral Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]