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In this paper, the actual background of the susceptible population being directly patients after inhaling a certain amount of PM 2.5 is taken into account. The concentration response function of PM 2.5 is introduced, and the SISP respiratory disease model is proposed. Qualitative theoretical analysis proves that the existence, local stability and global stability of the equilibria are all related to the daily emission P 0 of PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 pathogenic threshold K. Based on the sensitivity factor analysis and time-varying sensitivity analysis of parameters on the number of patients, it is found that the conversion rate β and the inhalation rate η has the largest positive correlation. The cure rate γ of infected persons has the greatest negative correlation on the number of patients. The control strategy formulated by the analysis results of optimal control theory is as follows: The first step is to improve the clearance rate of PM 2.5 by reducing the PM 2.5 emissions and increasing the intensity of dust removal. Moreover, such removal work must be maintained for a long time. The second step is to improve the cure rate of patients by being treated in time. After that, people should be reminded to wear masks and go out less so as to reduce the conversion rate of susceptible people becoming patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the periodic and stable dynamics of an interactive wild and sterile mosquito population model with density-dependent survival probability. We find a release amount upper bound G ∗ , depending on the release waiting period T, such that the model has exactly two periodic solutions, with one stable and another unstable, provided that the release amount does not exceed G ∗ . A numerical example is also given to illustrate our results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a deterministic model characterizing the within-host infection of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in intrahepatic and extrahepatic tissues is presented. In addition, the model also includes the effect of the cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) immunity described by a linear activation rate by infected cells. Firstly, the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions of the model are established. Secondly, the basic reproduction number R 01 and immune reproduction number R 02 are calculated, respectively. Three equilibria, namely, infection-free, CTL immune response-free and infected equilibrium with CTL immune response are discussed in terms of these two thresholds. Thirdly, the stability of these three equilibria is investigated theoretically as well as numerically. The results show that when R 01 < 1 , the virus will be cleared out eventually and the CTL immune response will also disappear; when R 02 < 1 < R 01 , the virus persists within the host, but the CTL immune response disappears eventually; when R 02 > 1 , both of the virus and the CTL immune response persist within the host. Finally, a brief discussion will be given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scarlet fever is an acute respiratory infectious disease and the incidence rate is increasing from 2011 throughout the world. In this paper, the mathematical models are proposed, which incorporate both direct transmissions and indirect transmissions of scarlet fever. The threshold conditions for disease invasion are obtained in terms of the basic reproduction number. The peak value, final size and epidemic time in a seasonal prevalence are investigated numerically. Furthermore, the effects of seasonal fluctuations on disease outbreak are also studied on the basis of real data in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider a nonautonomous predator-prey system with Beddington-DeAngelis functional response and explore the global stability of boundary solution. Based on the dynamics of logistic equation, some new sufficient conditions on the global asymptotic stability of boundary solution are presented for general time-dependence case. Our main results indicate that (i) the long-term ineffective predation behaviour or high mortality of predator species will lead the predator species to extinction, even if the intraspecies competition of predator species is weak or no intraspecies competition; (ii) the long-term intense intraspecific competition may lead the predator species to extinction, even though the long-term accumulative predation benefit is higher than the death lose. When all parameters are periodic functions with common period, a necessary and sufficient condition on the global stability of boundary periodic solution is obtained. In addition, some numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the global stability of discrete-time viral infection models with humoural immunity. We consider both latently and actively infected cells. We study also a model with general production and clearance rates of all compartments as well as general incidence rate of infection. We use nonstandard finite difference method to discretize the continuous-time models. The positivity and boundedness of solutions of the discrete models are established. We establish by using Lyapunov method, the global stability of equilibria in terms of the basic reproduction number R 0 and the humoural immune response activation number R 1 . The results signify that the infection dies out if R 0 ≤ 1. Moreover, the infection persists with inactive immune response if R 1 ≤ 1 < R 0 and with active immune response if R 1 > 1. We illustrate our theoretical results by using numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the effects of Beddington-DeAngelis interference and squabbling, respectively, on the minimal rate of predator release required to drive a pest population to zero. A two-dimensional system of coupled ordinary differential equations is considered, augmented by an impulsive component depicting the periodic release of predators into the system. This periodic release takes place independently of the detection of the pests in the field. We establish the existence of a pest-free solution driven by the periodic releases, and express the global stability conditions for this solution in terms of the minimal predator rate required to bring an outbreak of pests to nil. In particular, we show that with the interference effects, the minimal rate will only guarantee eradication if the releases are carried out frequently enough. When Beddington-DeAngelis behaviour is considered, an additional constraint for the existence itself of a successful release rate is that the pest growth rate should be less than the predation pressure, the latter explicitly formulated in terms of the predation function and the interference parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV can infect cells via virus-to-cell infection or cell-to-cell viral transmission. These two infection modes may occur in a synergistic way and facilitate viral spread within an infected individual. In this paper, we developed an HIV latent infection model including both modes of transmission and time delays between viral entry and integration or viral production. We analysed the model by defining the basic reproductive number, showing the existence, positivity and boundedness of the solution, and proving the local and global stability of the infection-free and infected steady states. Numerical simulations have been performed to illustrate the theoretical results and evaluate the effects of time delays and fractions of infection leading to latency on the virus dynamics. The estimates of the relative contributions to the HIV latent reservoir and the virus population from the two modes of transmission have also been provided. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Time delays can affect the dynamics of HIV infection predicted by mathematical models. In this paper, we studied two mathematical models each with two time delays. In the first model with HIV latency, one delay is the time between viral entry into a cell and the establishment of HIV latency, and the other delay is the time between cell infection and viral production. We defined the basic reproductive number and showed the local and global stability of the steady states. Numerical simulations were performed to evaluate the influence of time delays on the dynamics. In the second model with HIV immune response, one delay is the time between cell infection and viral production, and the other delay is the time needed for the adaptive immune response to emerge to control viral replication. With two positive delays, we obtained the stability crossing curves for the model, which were shown to be a series of open-ended curves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose and analyse a virus dynamics model with humoral immune response including latently infected cells. The incidence rate is given by Beddington–DeAngelis functional response. We have derived two threshold parameters, the basic infection reproduction numberand the humoral immune response activation numberwhich completely determined the basic and global properties of the virus dynamics model. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions and applying LaSalle's invariance principle we have proven that if, then the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS), if, then the chronic-infection equilibrium without humoral immune response is GAS, and if, then the chronic-infection equilibrium with humoral immune response is globally asymptotically stable. These results are further illustrated by numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, we consider spatial predator-prey models with diffusion and prey-taxis. We investigate necessary conditions for pattern formation using a variety of non-linear functional responses, linear and non-linear predator death terms, linear and non-linear prey-taxis sensitivities, and logistic growth or growth with an Allee effect for the prey. We identify combinations of the above non-linearities that lead to spatial pattern formation and we give numerical examples. It turns out that prey-taxis stabilizes the system and for large prey-taxis sensitivity we do not observe pattern formation. We also study and find necessary conditions for global stability for a type I functional response, logistic growth for the prey, non-linear predator death terms, and non-linear prey-taxis sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mathematical model is formulated for the transmission and spread of cholera in a heterogeneous host population that consists of several patches of homogeneous host populations sharing a common water source. The basic reproduction number ℛ0is derived and shown to determine whether or not cholera dies out. Explicit formulas are derived for target/type reproduction numbers that measure the control strategies required to eradicate cholera from all patches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel strategy for controlling mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and Zika, involves releases of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes as Wolbachia cause early embryo death when an infected male mates with an uninfected female. In this work, we introduce a delay differential equation model with mating inhomogeneity to discuss mosquito population suppression based on Wolbachia. Our analyses show that the wild mosquitoes could be eliminated if either the adult mortality rate exceeds the threshold δ A ∗ or the release amount exceeds the threshold r ∗ uniformly. We also present the nonlinear dependence of δ A ∗ and r ∗ on the parameters, respectively, as well as the effect of pesticide spraying on wild mosquitoes. Our simulations suggest that the releasing should be started at least 5 weeks before the peak dengue season, taking into account both the release amount and the suppression speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analysed a epidemiological model with varying populations of susceptible, carriers, infectious and recovered (SCIR) and a general non-linear incidence rate of the form f (S) [ g (C) + h (I) ]. We show that this model exhibits two positive equilibriums: the disease-free and disease equilibrium. We proved using the Lyapunov direct method that these two equilibriums are globally asymptotically stable under some sufficient conditions over the functions f, g, h. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) and Nagana in cattle, commonly called sleeping sickness, is caused by trypanosome protozoa transmitted by bites of infected tsetse flies. We present a deterministic model for the transmission of HAT caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense between human hosts, cattle hosts and tsetse flies. The model takes into account the growth of the tsetse fly, from its larval stage to the adult stage. Disease in the tsetse fly population is modeled by three compartments, and both the human and cattle populations are modeled by four compartments incorporating the two stages of HAT. We provide a rigorous derivation of the basic reproduction number R0. For R0 < 1, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, thus HAT dies out; whereas (assuming no return to susceptibility) for R0 > 1, HAT persists. Elasticity indices for R0 with respect to different parameters are calculated with baseline parameter values appropriate for HAT in West Africa; indicating parameters that are important for control strategies to bring R0 below 1. Numerical simulations with R0 > 1 show values for the infected populations at the endemic equilibrium, and indicate that with certain parameter values, HAT could not persist in the human population in the absence of cattle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine a mathematical model for the transmission of Streptococcus Pneumoniae amongst young children when the carriage transmission coefficient depends on the serotype. Carriage means pneumococcal colonization. There are two sequence types (STs) spreading in a population each of which can be expressed as one of two serotypes. We derive the differential equation model for the carriage spread and perform an equilibrium and global stability analysis on it. A key parameter is the effective reproduction number R e. For R e ≤ 1,  there is only the carriage-free equilibrium (CFE) and the carriage will die out whatever be the starting values. For R e > 1, unless the effective reproduction numbers of the two STs are equal, in addition to the CFE there are two carriage equilibria, one for each ST. If the ST with the largest effective reproduction number is initially present, then in the long-term the carriage will tend to the corresponding equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We analyse a selection-mutation size-structured model with n ecotypes competing for common resources. Uniform persistence and robust uniform persistence are established, when the selection-mutation matrix Γ is irreducible, i.e. individuals of one ecotype may contribute directly or indirectly to individuals of other ecotypes. Similar results are also presented for a particular reducible form of Γ. In the case of pure selection in which the offspring of one ecotype belong to the same ecotype, i.e. Γ=I, the identity matrix, we prove that the boundary equilibrium that describes competitive exclusion, with the fittest being the winner ecotype, is globally asymptotically stable. We show that small perturbations of the pure selection matrix lead to the existence of globally asymptotically stable interior equilibria. For the case when the selection-mutation matrix is reducible, we present and discuss the outcome of a series of numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a four-compartment tuberculosis model including exogenous reinfection. We derive sufficient conditions, in terms of the parameters of the system, which guarantee the occurrence of backward bifurcation. We also discuss the global stability of the endemic state by using a generalization of the Poincare-Bendixson criterion. An application is given for the case of Internally Displaced People's Camps in North Uganda. The study suggests how important it is to provide qualitative indications on the threshold value of the population density in the area occupied by the camps, in order to possibly eradicate the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lethargic crab disease (LCD) is an emergent infirmity that has decimated native populations of the mangrove land crab (Ucides cordatus, Decapoda: Ocypodidae) along the Brazilian coast. Several potential etiological agents have been linked with LCD, but only in 2005 was it proved that it is caused by an ascomycete fungus. This is the first attempt to develop a mathematical model to describe the epidemiological dynamics of LCD. The model presents four possible scenarios, namely, the trivial equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, and limit cycles arising from a Hopf bifurcation. The threshold values depend on the basic reproductive number of crabs and fungi, and on the infection rate. These scenarios depend on both the biological assumptions and the temporal evolution of the disease. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and illustrate the different temporal dynamics of the crab and fungus populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classical MacArthur Rosenzweig predator-prey system has a stable coexistence point or, if either the prey capacity is large or the predator mortality is low, a stable limit cycle. The question here is how the stability properties of the coexistence point change when the prey or the predator or both can go quiescent. It can be shown that a stable equilibrium stays stable, but an unstable equilibrium may become stable. The exact stability domain is determined. In general, increasing the duration of the quiescent phase of the prey or of the predator widens the stability window. Numerical studies show that limit cycles shrink when quiescent phases are introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]