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In this paper, we formulate a population suppression model and a population replacement model with periodic impulsive releases of Nilaparvata lugens infected with wStri. The conditions for the stability of wild- $ N.\,lugens $ N. l u g e n s -eradication periodic solution of two systems are obtained by applying the Floquet theorem and comparison theorem. And the sufficient conditions for the persistence in the mean of wild $ N.\,lugens $ N. l u g e n s are also given. In addition, the sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the wild $ N.\,lugens $ N. l u g e n s in the subsystem without wLug are also obtained. Finally, we give numerical analysis which shows that increasing the release amount or decreasing the release period are beneficial for controlling the wild $ N.\,lugens $ N. l u g e n s , and the efficiency of population replacement strategy in controlling wild populations is higher than that of population suppression strategy under the same release conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An intraguild predator–prey model including prey refuge and hunting cooperation is investigated in this paper. First, for the corresponding ordinary differential equation model, the existence and stability of all equilibria are given, and the existence of Hopf bifurcation, direction and stability of bifurcating periodic solutions are investigated. Then, for partial differential equation model, the diffusion-driven Turing instability is obtained. What is more, the existence and non-existence of the non-constant positive steady state of the reaction–diffusion model are established by the Leray–Schauder degree theory and some priori estimates. Next, some numerical simulations are performed to support analytical results. The results showed that prey refuge can change the stability of model and even have a stabilizing effect on this model, meanwhile the hunting cooperation can make such model without diffusion unstable, but make such model with diffusion stable. Lastly, a brief conclusion is concluded in the last section. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the actual background of the susceptible population being directly patients after inhaling a certain amount of PM 2.5 is taken into account. The concentration response function of PM 2.5 is introduced, and the SISP respiratory disease model is proposed. Qualitative theoretical analysis proves that the existence, local stability and global stability of the equilibria are all related to the daily emission P 0 of PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 pathogenic threshold K. Based on the sensitivity factor analysis and time-varying sensitivity analysis of parameters on the number of patients, it is found that the conversion rate β and the inhalation rate η has the largest positive correlation. The cure rate γ of infected persons has the greatest negative correlation on the number of patients. The control strategy formulated by the analysis results of optimal control theory is as follows: The first step is to improve the clearance rate of PM 2.5 by reducing the PM 2.5 emissions and increasing the intensity of dust removal. Moreover, such removal work must be maintained for a long time. The second step is to improve the cure rate of patients by being treated in time. After that, people should be reminded to wear masks and go out less so as to reduce the conversion rate of susceptible people becoming patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 is a disease caused by infection with the virus 2019-nCoV, a single-stranded RNA virus. During the infection and transmission processes, the virus evolves and mutates rapidly, though the disease has been quickly controlled in Wuhan by 'Fangcang' hospitals. To model the virulence evolution, in this paper, we formulate a new age structured epidemic model. Under the tradeoff hypothesis, two special scenarios are used to study the virulence evolution by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. Results show that, before 'Fangcang' hospitals, two scenarios are both consistent with the data. After 'Fangcang' hospitals, Scenario I rather than Scenario II is consistent with the data. It is concluded that the transmission pattern of COVID-19 in Wuhan obey Scenario I rather than Scenario II. Theoretical analysis show that, in Scenario I, shortening the value of L (diagnosis period) can result in an enormous selective pressure on the evolution of 2019-nCoV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyse stability and Hopf bifurcation of the HIV-1 model with immune delay under the functional response of the Holling II type. The global stability analysis has been considered by Lyapunov–LaSalle theorem. And stability and the sufficient condition for the existence of Hopf Bifurcation of the infected equilibrium of the HIV-1 model with immune response are also studied. Some numerical simulations verify the above results. Finally, we propose a novel three dimension system to the future study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the dynamic behaviours of a hybrid stochastic population model with impulsive perturbations. The existence of the global positive solution is studied in this paper. Moreover, under some conditions on the noises and impulsive perturbations, the properties of the persistence and extinction, stochastic permanence, global attractivity and stability in distribution are presented. Our results illustrate that impulsive perturbations play a crucial role in these properties. The bounded impulse term will not affect these properties, however, when the impulse term is unbounded, some of the properties, such as the persistence and extinction may be changed significantly. As a part of this paper, a couple of examples and numerical simulations are provided to illustrate our results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a mathematical model describing tuberculosis transmission with fast and slow progression and age-dependent latency and infection is investigated. It is assumed in the model that infected individuals can develop tuberculosis by either of two pathogenic mechanisms: direct progression or endogenous reactivation. It is shown that the transmission dynamics of the disease is fully determined by the basic reproduction number. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free steady state and an endemic steady state of the model is established. By using the persistence theory for infinite dimensional system, it is proved that the system is uniformly persistent when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and using LaSalle's invariance principle, it is verified that the global dynamics of the system is completely determined by the basic reproduction number. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider a continuous mathematically tractable model and its discrete analogue for the tumour growth. The model formulation is based on stoichiometric principles considering tumour-immune cell interactions in potassium (K+)-limited environment. Our both continuous and discrete models illustrate ‘cancer immunoediting’ as a dynamic process having all three phases namely elimination, equilibrium and escape. The stoichiometric principles introduced into the model allow us to study its dynamics with the variation in the total potassium in the surrounding of the tumour region. It is found that an increase in the total potassium may help the patient fight the disease for a longer period of time. This result seems to be in line with the protective role of the potassium against the risk of pancreatic cancer as has been reported by Braviet al. [Dietary intake of selected micronutrients and risk of pancreatic cancer: An Italian case-control study, Ann. Oncol. 22 (2011), pp. 202–206]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper studies a periodic and delayed predator–prey system with non-monotonic functional responses and stage structure. In the system, both the predator and prey are divided into immature individuals and mature individuals by two fixed ages. It is assumed that the immature predators cannot attack preys, and the case of the mature predators attacking the immature preys is also ignored. Based on Mawhin's coincidence degree, sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence of two positive periodic solutions of the system. An example is presented to illustrate the feasibility of the main results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider the global stability of the models which incorporate humoural immunity or cell-mediated immunity. We consider the effect of loss of a pathogen, which is called the absorption effect when it infects an uninfected cells. We construct Lyapunov functions for these models under some conditions of parameters, and prove the global stability of the interior equilibria. It is impossible to remove the condition of parameters for the model incorporating humoural immunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider a class of coupled cooperative reaction-diffusion systems, in which onepopulation (or subpopulation) diffuses while the other is sedentary. We use the shooting method to prove the existence of the bistable travelling wave, and then obtain its global attractivity with phase shift and uniqueness (up to translation) via the dynamical system approach. The results are applied to some specific examples of reaction-diffusion population models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microtubules (MTs) are protein filaments that provide structure to the cytoskeleton of cells and a platform for the movement of intracellular substances. The spatial organization of MTs is crucial for a cell's form and function. MTs interact with a class of proteins called motor proteins that can transport and position individual filaments, thus contributing to overall organization. In this paper, we study the mathematical properties of a coupled partial differential equation (PDE) model, introduced by Whiteet al.in 2015, that describes the motor-induced organization of MTs. The model consists of a nonlinear coupling of a hyperbolic PDE for bound motor proteins, a parabolic PDE for unbound motor proteins, and a transport equation for MT dynamics. We locally smooth the motor drift velocity in the equation for bound motor proteins. The mollification is not only critical for the analysis of the model, but also adds biological realism. We then use a Banach Fixed Point argument to show local existence and uniqueness of mild solutions. We highlight the applicability of the model by showing numerical simulations that are consistent within vitroexperiments. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

HIV can infect cells via virus-to-cell infection or cell-to-cell viral transmission. These two infection modes may occur in a synergistic way and facilitate viral spread within an infected individual. In this paper, we developed an HIV latent infection model including both modes of transmission and time delays between viral entry and integration or viral production. We analysed the model by defining the basic reproductive number, showing the existence, positivity and boundedness of the solution, and proving the local and global stability of the infection-free and infected steady states. Numerical simulations have been performed to illustrate the theoretical results and evaluate the effects of time delays and fractions of infection leading to latency on the virus dynamics. The estimates of the relative contributions to the HIV latent reservoir and the virus population from the two modes of transmission have also been provided. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

HIV latency remains a major obstacle to viral elimination. The activation rate of latently infected cells may depend on the age of latent infection. In this paper, we develop a model of HIV infection including age-structured latently infected cells. We mathematically analyse the model and use numerical simulations with different activation functions to show that the model can explain the persistence of low-level viremia and the latent reservoir stability in patients on therapy. Sensitivity tests suggest that the model is robust to the changes of most parameters but is sensitive to the relative magnitude of the net generation rate and the long-term activation rate of latently infected cells. To reduce the sensitivity, we extend the model to include homeostatic proliferation of latently infected cells. The new model is robust in reproducing the long-term dynamics of the virus and latently infected cells observed in patients receiving prolonged combination therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time delays can affect the dynamics of HIV infection predicted by mathematical models. In this paper, we studied two mathematical models each with two time delays. In the first model with HIV latency, one delay is the time between viral entry into a cell and the establishment of HIV latency, and the other delay is the time between cell infection and viral production. We defined the basic reproductive number and showed the local and global stability of the steady states. Numerical simulations were performed to evaluate the influence of time delays on the dynamics. In the second model with HIV immune response, one delay is the time between cell infection and viral production, and the other delay is the time needed for the adaptive immune response to emerge to control viral replication. With two positive delays, we obtained the stability crossing curves for the model, which were shown to be a series of open-ended curves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A predator-prey discrete-time model with Holling-IV functional response and distributed delays is investigated in this paper. By using the comparison theorem of the difference equation and some analysis technique, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the permanence of the discrete predator-prey system. Two examples are given to illustrate the feasibility of the obtained result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The release of sterile insects is an environment friendly pest control method used in integrated pest management programmes. Difference or differential equations based on Knipling's model often provide satisfactory qualitative descriptions of pest populations subject to sterile release at relatively high densities with large mating encounter rates, but fail otherwise. In this paper, I derive and explore numerically deterministic population models that include sterile release together with scarce mating encounters in the particular case of species with long lifespan and multiple matings. The differential equations account separately the effects of mating failure due to sterile male release and the frequency of mating encounters. When insects spatial spread is incorporated through diffusion terms, computations reveal the possibility of steady pest persistence in finite size patches. In the presence of density dependence regulation, it is observed that sterile release might contribute to induce sudden suppression of the pest population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The region of St. Louis, Missouri, has displayed a high level of heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases, hospitalization, and vaccination coverage. We investigate how human mobility, vaccination, and time-varying transmission rates influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmission in five counties in the St. Louis area. A COVID-19 model with a system of ordinary differential equations was developed to illustrate the dynamics with a fully vaccinated class. Using the weekly number of vaccinations, cases, and hospitalization data from five counties in the greater St. Louis area in 2021, parameter estimation for the model was completed. The transmission coefficients for each county changed four times in that year to fit the model and the changing behaviour. We predicted the changes in disease spread under scenarios with increased vaccination coverage. SafeGraph local movement data were used to connect the forces of infection across various counties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To analyse and evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we establish an improved COVID-19 infectious disease dynamics model. We fit the epidemic data in the four time periods corresponding to the selected 614G, Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants and obtain the proportion of asymptomatic persons among the infected persons gradually increased and with the increase of the detection ratio, the cumulative number of cases has dropped significantly, but the decline in the proportion of asymptomatic infections is not obvious. Therefore, in view of the hidden transmission of asymptomatic infections, the cooperation between various epidemic prevention and control policies is required to effectively curb the spread of the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Periodical cicadas are known for their unusually long life cycle for insects and their prime periodicity of either 13 or 17 years. One of the explanations for the prime periodicity is that the prime periods are selected to prevent cicadas from resonating with predators with submultiple periods. This paper considers this hypothesis by investigating a population model for periodical predator and prey. The study shows that if the periods of the two periodical species are not coprime, then the predator cannot resist the invasion of the prey. On the other hand, if the periods are coprime, then the predator can resist the invasion of the prey. It is also shown that if the periods are not coprime, then the life-cycle resonance can induce a permanent system, in which no cohorts are missing in both populations. On the other hand, if the periods are coprime, then the system cannot be permanent. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Recently, we [E.M.C. D'Agata, G.F. Webb, M.A. Horn, R.C. Moellering Jr., and S. Ruan, Modelling the invasion of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus into the hospital setting, Clin. Infect. Dis. 48 (2009), pp. 274-284] proposed a deterministic mathematical model to characterize the factors contributing to the replacement of hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (HA-MRSA) with the community-acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) and to quantify the effectiveness of interventions aimed at limiting the spread of CA-MRSA in the hospital setting. Numerical simulations of the model strongly suggest that CA-MRSA will become the dominant MRSA strain in the hospital setting. In this companion paper, we provide steady-state analysis and more numerical simulations of the model. It is shown that when no colonized or infected patients enter the hospital, competitive exclusion of HA-MRSA by CA-MRSA will occur with increased severity of CA-MRSA infections resulting in longer hospitalizations and a larger in-hospital reservoir of CA-MRSA. Improving compliance with hand hygiene and decolonization of CA-MRSA carriers are effective control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we rigorously analyse an ordinary differential equation system that models fighting the HIV-1 virus with a genetically modified virus. We show that when the basic reproduction ratio R0<1, then the infection-free equilibrium E0 is globally asymptotically stable; when R0>1, E0 loses its stability and there is the single-infection equilibrium Es. If R0∈(1, 1+δ) where δ is a positive constant explicitly depending on system parameters, then the single-infection equilibrium Es that is globally asymptotically stable, while when R0>1+δ, Es becomes unstable and the double-infection equilibrium Ed comes into existence. When R0 is slightly larger than 1+δ, Ed is stable and it loses its stability via Hopf bifurcation when R0 is further increased in some ways. Through a numerical example and by applying a normal form theory, we demonstrate how to determine the bifurcation direction and stability, as well as the estimates of the amplitudes and the periods of the bifurcated periodic solutions. We also perform numerical simulations which agree with the theoretical results. The approaches we use here are a combination of analysis of characteristic equations, fluctuation lemma, Lyapunov function and normal form theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop two discrete models to study how supplemental releases affect the Wolbachia spreading dynamics in cage mosquito populations. The first model focuses on the case when only infected males are released at each generation. This release strategy has been proved to be capable of speeding up the Wolbachia persistence by suppressing the compatible matings between uninfected individuals. The second model targets the case when only infected females are released at each generation. For both models, detailed model formulation, enumeration of the positive equilibria and their stability analysis are provided. Theoretical results show that the two models can generate bistable dynamics when there are three positive equilibrium points, semi-stable dynamics for the case of two positive equilibrium points. And when the positive equilibrium point is unique, it is globally asymptotically stable. Some numerical simulations are offered to get helpful implications on the design of the release strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A deterministic model proposed in previous literatures to approximate the well-known Richards model is investigated. However, the model assumption of small initial value for infection size is released in the current manuscript. Taking the advantage of the closed form of solutions, we establish the epidemic characteristics of disease transmission: the outbreak size, the peak size and the turning point for the cumulative infected cases. It is shown that the usual disease outbreak threshold condition (the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity) fails to fully guarantee the existence of peaking time and turning point when the initial infection size is not relatively small. The epidemic characteristics not only depend on R0 but also on another index, the net reproduction number R*0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose two models inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic: a coupled disease-human behaviour (or disease-game theoretic), and a coupled disease-human behaviour-economic model, both of which account for the impact of social-distancing on disease control and economic growth. The models exhibit rich dynamical behaviour including multistable equilibria, a backward bifurcation, and sustained bounded periodic oscillations. Analyses of the first model suggests that the disease can be eliminated if everybody practices full social-distancing, but the most likely outcome is some level of disease coupled with some level of social-distancing. The same outcome is observed with the second model when the economy is weaker than the social norms to follow health directives. However, if the economy is stronger, it can support some level of social-distancing that can lead to disease elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The turnover rate of producer biomass in aquatic ecosystems is generally faster than in terrestrial. That is, aquatic producer biomass grows, is consumed, and is replaced considerably faster than terrestrial. The WKL model describes the flow of phosphorus and carbon through a grazer–producer system, hence varying the model parameters allows for analysis of different ecosystems of this type. Here we explore the impacts of the intrinsic growth rate of the producer and the maximal ingestion rate of the grazer on these dynamics because these parameters determine turnover rate. Simulations show that for low intrinsic growth rate and maximal ingestion rate, the grazer goes extinct; for higher values of these parameters, coexistence occurs in oscillations. Sensitivity analysis reveals the relative importance of all parameters on asymptotic dynamics. Lastly, the impacts of changing these two parameters in the LKE model appears to be quantitatively similar to the impacts in the WKL model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we formulate and study a discrete equation model depicting the pattern of Wolbachia infection in a mosquito population. A domain in R + 2 is called a Wolbachia infection enhancing (or decaying) domain if in which the Wolbachia infection frequency of the next generation is always bigger (or smaller) than that of the current generation. We first give a complete analysis of the equivalent Wolbachia infection frequency curves. And then we clearly characterize the Wolbachia infection enhancing domain and decaying domain for all of the parameters, respectively. Finally, some numerical examples are also provided to illustrate our theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel strategy for controlling mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and Zika, involves releases of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes as Wolbachia cause early embryo death when an infected male mates with an uninfected female. In this work, we introduce a delay differential equation model with mating inhomogeneity to discuss mosquito population suppression based on Wolbachia. Our analyses show that the wild mosquitoes could be eliminated if either the adult mortality rate exceeds the threshold δ A ∗ or the release amount exceeds the threshold r ∗ uniformly. We also present the nonlinear dependence of δ A ∗ and r ∗ on the parameters, respectively, as well as the effect of pesticide spraying on wild mosquitoes. Our simulations suggest that the releasing should be started at least 5 weeks before the peak dengue season, taking into account both the release amount and the suppression speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An optimal switching control formalism combined with the stochastic dynamic programming is, for the first time, applied to modelling life cycle of migrating population dynamics with non-overlapping generations. The migration behaviour between habitats is efficiently described as impulsive switching based on stochastic differential equations, which is a new standpoint for modelling the biological phenomenon. The population dynamics is assumed to occur so that the reproductive success is maximized under an expectation. Finding the optimal migration strategy ultimately reduces to solving an optimality equation of the quasi-variational type. We show an effective linkage between our optimality equation and the basic reproduction number. Our model is applied to numerical computation of optimal migration strategy and basic reproduction number of an amphidromous fish Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis in Japan as a target species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose and study a mathematical model for malaria-HIV co-infection transmission and control, in which malaria treatment and insecticide-treated nets are incorporated. The existence of a backward bifurcation is established analytically, and the occurrence of such backward bifurcation is influenced by disease-induced mortality, insecticide-treated bed-net coverage and malaria treatment parameters. To further assess the impact of malaria treatment and insecticide-treated bed-net coverage, we formulate an optimal control problem with malaria treatment and insecticide-treated nets as control functions. Using reasonable parameter values, numerical simulations of the optimal control suggest the possibility of eliminating malaria and reducing HIV prevalence significantly, within a short time horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimal control methods are applied to a deterministic mathematical model to characterize the factors contributing to the replacement of hospital-acquired methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus(HA-MRSA) with community-acquired methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus(CA-MRSA), and quantify the effectiveness of three interventions aimed at limiting the spread of CA-MRSA in healthcare settings. Characterizations of the optimal control strategies are established, and numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of spatial arrangements on the spread and management strategies of a cholera epidemic is investigated. We consider the effect of human and pathogen movement on optimal vaccination strategies. A metapopulation model is used, incorporating a susceptible- infected-recovered system of differential equations coupled with an equation modelling the concentration of Vibrio cholerae in an aquatic reservoir. The model compared spatial arrangements and varying scenarios to draw conclusions on how to effectively manage outbreaks. The work is motivated by the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti. Results give guidance for vaccination strategies in response to an outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a highly contagious tick-borne disease that impacts many countries in parts of Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Outbreaks are episodic, but deadly. Due to the highly contagious nature of this disease, suspected cases are taken extremely serious, with very strong control measures implemented almost immediately. It is primarily those living on farms, livestock workers, and medical workers who are at risk. The virus responsible for CCHF is transmitted asymptomatically and transiently to livestock, and symptomatically to humans. The fatality rate in human cases can be very high. The number of methods and directions of viral transmission is large, including tick-to-tick, tick-to-livestock, tick-to-human, livestock-to-tick, livestock-to-human, and human-to-human. We model CCHF using a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations. This compartment model allows us to analyse threshold parameters and equilibria describing the magnitude and progression of cases of the disease in a hypothetical outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mathematical model is used to study the dynamics of ovine brucellosis when transmitted directly from infected individual, through contact with a contaminated environment or vertically through mother to child. The model developed by Aïnsebaet al.[A model for ovine brucellosis incorporating direct and indirect transmission, J. Biol. Dyn. 4 (2010), pp. 2–11. Available athttp://www.math.u-bordeaux1.fr/∼pmagal100p/papers/BBM-JBD09.pdf. Accessed 3 July 2012] was modified to include culling and then used to determine important parameters in the spread of human brucellosis using sensitivity analysis. An optimal control analysis was performed on the model to determine the best way to control such as a disease in the population. Three time-dependent controls to prevent exposure, cull the infected and reduce environmental transmission were used to set up to minimize infection at a minimum cost. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Birth-jump models are designed to describe population models for which growth and spatial spread cannot be decoupled. A birth-jump model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation. We present two different derivations of this equation, one based on a random walk approach and the other based on a two-compartmental reaction–diffusion model. In the case that the redistribution kernels are highly concentrated, we show that the integro-differential equation can be approximated by a reaction–diffusion equation, in which the proliferation rate contributes to both the diffusion term and the reaction term. We completely solve the corresponding critical domain size problem and the minimal wave speed problem. Birth-jump models can be applied in many areas in mathematical biology. We highlight an application of our results in the context of forest fire spread through spotting. We show that spotting increases the invasion speed of a forest fire front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Periodic environments may either enhance or suppress a population via resonant or attenuant cycles. We derive signature functions for predicting the responses of two competing populations to 2-periodic oscillations in six model parameters. Two of these parameters provide a non-trivial equilibrium and two provide the carrying capacities of each species in the absence of the other, but the remaining two are arbitrary and could be intrinsic growth rates. Each signature function is the sign of a weighted sum of the relative strengths of the oscillations of the perturbed parameters. Periodic environments are favourable for populations when the signature function is positive and are deleterious if the signature function is negative. We compute the signature functions of four classical, discrete-time two-species populations and determine regions in parameter space which are either favourable or detrimental to the populations. The six-parameter models include the Logistic, Ricker, Beverton–Holt, and Hassell models. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) infections have been linked to increased mortality and costs. A new model of a VRE-infested intensive care unit (ICU) is introduced. It incorporates critical features including the difference between colonization and infection, the role of special preventive care treatment cycles, fitness cost, and antibiotic use. Five patient stages are considered: susceptible, colonized with and without special preventive care, and infected with and without treatment. Parameter ranges are determined representing different ICUs and incorporated to numerically simulate the model. Basic reproductive number of the infection is derived and the impacts of the parameters are analysed. Strategies to minimize VRE infections and outbreak risk are explored with a focus on efficient and simultaneous control of critical parameters. In particular, threshold values of the level of special preventive care and ICU compliance rate are given to achieve desired goals under various constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We consider a model of competition between plasmid-bearing and plasmid-free organisms for two complementary nutrients in a chemostat. We assume that the plasmid-bearing organism produces an allelopathic agent at the cost of its reproductive abilities which is lethal to plasmid-free organism. Our analysis leads to different thresholds in terms of the model parameters acting as conditions under which the organisms associated with the system cannot thrive even in the absence of competition. Local stability of the system is obtained in the absence of one or both the organisms. Also, global stability of the system is obtained in the presence of both the organisms. Computer simulations have been carried out to illustrate various analytical results. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This work studies a mathematical model for the dynamics of Chagas disease, a parasitic disease that affects humans and domestic mammals throughout rural areas in Central and South America. It presents a modified version of the model found in Spagnuolo et al. [A model for Chagas disease with controlled spraying, J. Biol. Dyn. 5 (2011), pp. 299–317] with a delayed logistic growth term, which captures an overshoot, beyond the vector carrying capacity, in the total vector population when the blood meal supply is large. It studies the steady states of the system in the case of constant coefficients without spraying, and the analysis shows that for given-averaged parameters, the endemic equilibrium is stable and attracting. The numerical simulations of the model dynamics with time-dependent coefficients are shown when interruptions in the annual insecticide spraying cycles are taken into account. Simulations show that when there are spraying schedule interruptions, spraying may become ineffective when the blood meal supply is large. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We examine a mathematical model for the transmission of Streptococcus Pneumoniae amongst young children when the carriage transmission coefficient depends on the serotype. Carriage means pneumococcal colonization. There are two sequence types (STs) spreading in a population each of which can be expressed as one of two serotypes. We derive the differential equation model for the carriage spread and perform an equilibrium and global stability analysis on it. A key parameter is the effective reproduction number R e. For R e ≤ 1,  there is only the carriage-free equilibrium (CFE) and the carriage will die out whatever be the starting values. For R e > 1, unless the effective reproduction numbers of the two STs are equal, in addition to the CFE there are two carriage equilibria, one for each ST. If the ST with the largest effective reproduction number is initially present, then in the long-term the carriage will tend to the corresponding equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We analyse, from a mathematical point of view, the global stability of equilibria for models describing the interaction between infectious agents and humoral immunity. We consider the models that contain the variables of pathogens explicitly. The first model considers the situation where only a single strain exists. For the single strain model, the disease steady state is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive ratio is greater than one. The other models consider the situations where multiple strains exist. For the multi-strain models, the disease steady state is globally asymptotically stable. In the model that does not explicitly contain an immune variable, only one strain with the maximum basic reproductive ratio can survive at the steady state. However, in our models explicitly involving the immune system, multiple strains coexist at the steady state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health professionals are charged with the task of designing prevention programs for the effective control of biologically intricate infectious diseases at a population level. The effective vaccination of a population for pneumococcal diseases (infections caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae) remains a relevant question in the scientific community. It is complicated by heterogeneity in individuals' responses to exposure to the bacterium and their responses to vaccination. Due to these complexities, most modelling efforts in this area have been on the cellular/bacteria level. Here, we introduce an age-structured SEIS-type model of pneumococcal diseases and their vaccination. We discuss the use of this framework in predicting the impact of vaccine strategies, with pneumococcal diseases as an example. Using parameter values reasonable for a developed country, we discuss the effects of targeting the colonization and/or infection stages on the age profiles of morbidity in a population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lethargic crab disease (LCD) is an emergent infirmity that has decimated native populations of the mangrove land crab (Ucides cordatus, Decapoda: Ocypodidae) along the Brazilian coast. Several potential etiological agents have been linked with LCD, but only in 2005 was it proved that it is caused by an ascomycete fungus. This is the first attempt to develop a mathematical model to describe the epidemiological dynamics of LCD. The model presents four possible scenarios, namely, the trivial equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, and limit cycles arising from a Hopf bifurcation. The threshold values depend on the basic reproductive number of crabs and fungi, and on the infection rate. These scenarios depend on both the biological assumptions and the temporal evolution of the disease. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and illustrate the different temporal dynamics of the crab and fungus populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the evolution of resource utilization in a structured discrete-time metapopulation model with an infinite number of patches, prone to local catastrophes. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources available in different amounts in each patch. We analyse how the evolution of specialization in the utilization of the resources is affected by different ecological factors: migration, local growth, local catastrophes, forms of the trade-off and distribution of the resources in the patches. Our modelling approach offers a natural way to include more than two patch types into the models. This has not been usually possible in the previous spatially heterogeneous models focusing on the evolution of specialization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]