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Osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) associated with bisphosphonate therapy is a rare but severe side effect in osteoporosis patients. Recently, the number of osteoporosis patients with ONJ has dramatically increased in Japan. This has contributed to an increase in the number of patients avoiding extractions. However, there has been no prospective study providing definitive incidence data for ONJ in Japanese patients. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the true as well as suspected incidence of ONJ. A total of 3229 subjects (1612 subjects in the minodronic acid group and 1617 subjects in the raloxifene group) in the Japanese Osteoporosis Intervention Trial protocol number 4 participated in this study. ONJ was diagnosed by experienced dentists. Suspected Stage 0 and 1 (bone exposure of the jaw) ONJ was assessed by a structured questionnaire at baseline and at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. No established ONJ cases were diagnosed during the study. The incidence of suspected Stage 0 and/or Stage 1 ONJ was 6.14 per 1000 patient-years in the minodronic acid group and 3.38 per 1000 patient-years in the raloxifene group [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.82 (0.84-3.93), P = 0.13]. Approximately 50-60% of bone exposures that appeared during the study had disappeared at the next observation. Although the subjects in this study may have developed a greater interest in the health of the oral cavity, the incidence of ONJ after minodronic acid treatment would be lower than the expected incident rate.