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Buildings contribute to about 40% of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions and more than a third of energy consumption globally. Sustainable building standards and efficiency standards are two measures to reduce such emissions and energy consumption in buildings. While better standards improve the sustainability of new buildings, the impact of these actions depends on the ability to improve the existing building stock. Understanding the dynamics of adopting efficiency and sustainable building measures is essential for setting policy targets and mechanisms. This paper proposes a system dynamics model for assessing the energy savings potential from adopting sustainable building and energy efficiency measurements in buildings in systems with incomplete and uncertain information, using prospective scenarios. The model combines a dynamic diffusion model with an aggregate model for the building stock. The model is calibrated for estimating energy savings in the residential and commercial building stock of the four main metropolitan areas of Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, and Barranquilla. Simulation results show that the maximum energy savings potential is approximately 12% but could be below 8% if rebound effects are considered. Results show that energy savings are limited if there are no policies for existing old buildings. [Display omitted] • We developed a system dynamics model for adoption of sustainable buildings standards. • The model estimates the potential energy savings at the city level. • We used the model for testing different scenarios in four Colombian cities. • Current Colombian standards should be extended to consider an old-buildings policy. • Colombian policies require city-specific incentives and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The building sector is a significant source of GHG emissions and has great potential for emission reductions. The effectiveness of building energy codes on energy savings and emission mitigation is of a primary concern to policy makers, but uncertainty in cost and benefit in different regions complicates code selection and implementation. The impacts of a specific building energy standard vary depending on the heating system's thermal efficiency and the heating fuel's carbon intensity. This paper examines the GHG emissions due to space heating for new construction single-detached households in Canada under different building energy codes and enforcement scenarios. The two codes considered are the BC step code and Passive House criteria. Three scenarios are examined reflecting different levels of stringency of standards between 2020 and 2032. The results show both BC step code and passive house criteria can help mitigate the space heating GHG emissions. There is no significant difference between the BC step code and the passive house criteria from the perspective of GHG emission reduction in the province of British Columbia; however, when implemented nationwide, the passive house criteria is 12% more effective in abating space heating GHG emissions than the most stringent level (i.e. Step 5) of BC step code. • Passive House criteria are more effective in reducing the space heating GHG emissions than BC Step Code does in Canada. • BC Step Code and Passive House criteria can save space heating GHG emissions of new single-houses by 77% and 89%, respectively. • Building performance standards are less impactful in regions where fuel carbon intensity is low. • No notable difference is found between BC Step Code and Passive House criteria in GHG emission reduction per unit area in BC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]