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The present study explores net carbon-neutral road transport options in the EU27 in 2050 from a well-to-wheel (WtW) perspective. To this aim, three scenarios have been developed regarding the evolution of the road vehicle fleet composition in terms of the degree of electrification of powertrains, and technical measures such as vehicle efficiency improvements, transport flow, and transport volumes have been considered. The fleet scenarios are further combined with four scenarios deploying different mixes of alternative fuels in 2050, including electricity, e-fuels, liquid/gaseous advanced biofuels and remaining fossil fuel components. Two different electricity production pathways are considered, as well, one of them assuming fully renewable electricity production, and an alternative one including residual shares of nuclear and natural gas power plants plus carbon capture and storage. The Joint Research Centre's DIONE model was used for the scenario calculations. From a tank-to-wheel (TtW) perspective, each scenario reduces energy consumption, mainly due to powertrain electrification, with EU27 TtW road vehicle energy consumption in 2050 ranging from roughly 650 to 1650 TWh, which is 20%–53% of that of 2019. For the most strongly electrified fleet scenario with optimistic assumptions on measures to improve vehicle efficiency, transport flow and transport volumes and renewable electricity production, well-to-tank (WtT) energy consumption is around 110–160 TWh, depending on the fuel scenario. If a moderately electrified fleet is propelled with e-fuels, even when assuming fully renewable electricity and optimistic measures, the WtT energy consumption increases ten times or more, to 1300 TWh (2150 TWh with pessimistic measures). The results show that fleet electrification is the strongest lever for WtW transport energy consumption reduction among the options considered. Other efficiency measures contribute significantly to energy savings, but their benefit decreases with increasing fleet electrification. The production pathways of fuels make a substantial difference for WtW fleet energy requirement if the fleet is moderately electrified, in which case e-fuels require significant amounts of additional renewable electricity. Nevertheless, fuel production pathways become irrelevant from an energetic point of view under very ambitious electrification scenarios since fuel volumes become marginal. The economic feasibility and the societal acceptability of different pathways towards WtW carbon-neutrality of road transport is out of scope of this paper and requires further investigation. • The study examines well-to-wheel scenarios for 2050 carbon neutral road transport. • Electrification is the strongest driver in transport energy consumption reduction. • Vehicle efficiency and activity impacts decrease with fleet electrification. • With high fleet electrification fuel production barely impacts energy consumption. • E-fuels require particularly large amounts of additional renewable electricity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River Delta region is one of the key areas of energy transition for China's carbon neutrality. The pathways to carbon neutrality are diverse in the regional level due to the different conditions on the energy supply and demand side. How to construct comprehensive assessment index system and evaluate regional pathways to carbon neutrality is an urgent problem to be solved. To fill this gap, this paper evaluates the carbon neutrality pathways of supply-side and demand-side coordination in the Yangtze River Delta region using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform with five scenarios (64 sub-scenarios): Business as usual, energy intensity decrease, energy structure reform, power supply technology innovation and policies mix. The simulation results indicate that: (1) 22 of the 64 sub-scenarios can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. (2) In energy intensity decrease scenario, an annual 6% reduction in energy intensity could achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. (3) The policies mix scenario can lead to 21 sub-scenarios with pathways to achieve carbon neutrality when the average annual energy intensity decreases by 4% or more. Additionally, the end-use sectors electrification level should reach 64.19% at least by 2060. (4) There can be 14 sub-scenarios to achieve zero carbon emissions in the power plant sector, but annual energy intensity should be reduced by at least 4%. Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis, the article evaluated the 22 sub-scenarios with the index of regional pathways to carbon neutrality. The result shows that the mixed policies of energy intensity reduction, energy structure reformation and power technology innovation can promote the coordination of supply-side and demand-side. This study can provide reference for policymakers to formulate effective policies to realize carbon neutrality. • The coordination of energy supply and energy demand is assessed. • A model with five scenarios (64 sub-scenarios) is developed for carbon neutrality. • Energy intensity drops by 4% or more can lead to multiple carbon neutral pathways. • A comprehensive assessment index of regional carbon neutral pathways is developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]