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China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. Hebei, as a major energy province in China, has more challenging carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. Based on the extended STIRPAT model, this paper evaluates the time to peak carbon and post-peak carbon trend changes in Hebei province under different scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Based on the support vector machine model with particle swarm optimization, this paper evaluates the carbon neutral pathways under different scenarios in Hebei province from 2020 to 2060 in terms of forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). The results show that a monotonically flat trend without inflection point, a single-inflection-point plateau-period trend and a multi-inflection-point inverted U-wave trend occur after carbon peaks. Hebei Province can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the policy scenario and the enhanced scenario, and the enhanced scenario is better. Comparing with existing studies, the innovation of this paper is to design different trends of changes after carbon peak, combining carbon absorption and carbon emission, and providing more diversified development paths for carbon neutral strategies through a more integrated perspective and multi-scenario comprehensive analysis. Therefore, In the future, Hebei Province should establish a platform for carbon emissions monitoring and carbon footprint assessment, and set up an early warning and assessment mechanism for carbon peaking, so as to prevent a rebound trend in carbon emissions after peaking. At the same time, it should introduce and develop carbon capture and conversion technologies and promote the low-carbon transformation of the industrial and energy sectors, thereby forcing the early realization of peak carbon. Pay attention to the role of forestry resources in carbon neutrality, increase carbon sink resources such as forests and wetlands, promote the development of CCUS, and enhance the implementation of the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper builds an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) multiple logistic regression model to analyze how socio-economic development impacts mainland China's coastal waters environment. China's coastal provinces have significantly different seawater quality at different stages of the seawater's EKC. Jiangsu and Hebei are still at the early stage of the seawater's EKC because of the large quantity of pollution-intensive industry, whereas the coastal provinces at the late stage of the seawater's EKC have presented obviously improved seawater quality based on adjustments in the industrial structure since 2001. Urbanization has a severe impact on the seawater quality of Shanghai and Zhejiang at the middle stage of the seawater's EKC. Furthermore, this paper proposes an overall strategy and several "tailored" strategies to address coastal waters environment improvement for current poorly targeted policies at different stages of the seawater's EKC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 1990 to 2017, the number of vehicles in China increased sharply from 5 million to 310 million, and vehicle emissions became one of the major sources of air pollution. Among the main sources of PM 2.5 in Beijing, the contributions from vehicle sources increased from 5.6% (2000) to 31.1% (2012) to 45% (2017). In 2010, the CO, hydrocarbon (HC), NO x , and particulate matter (PM) emissions of yellow-label vehicles (YLVs) accounted for 46.1%, 47.9%, 63.1% and 86.1% of the total emissions from on-road vehicles. In recent years, China has been implementing a YLV scrappage subsidy policy to control air pollution, and this policy has cost several hundred billion yuan nationwide. However, China has not evaluated the costs and benefits of the policy. Many people question whether the YLV scrappage subsidy policy is worthwhile, but all the stakeholders involved complicate the process of accurately evaluating the true value of the policy. In this study, we evaluated and compared the costs and benefits of the policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region based on 1.362 million YLVs from 2008 to 2015. Because of the implementation of the policy, the PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO x , CO and HC emissions in the BTH region decreased by 16.46, 18.12, 174.44, 669.11, and 91.64 kt, respectively, in 2008–2015. The results show that the policy played an important role in reducing pollutant emissions and improving environmental quality in the BTH region. The costs, benefits, and net benefits of the policy were 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan , respectively. The cost-benefit ratio in the BTH region was 1:2.49; at the city scale, Beijing ranked first (1:7.27), and the cost-benefit ratios of Tianjin and Hebei Province were 1:2.06 and 1:1.14, respectively. Of the 13 cities in the BTH region, Beijing had the highest net benefits, amounting to 16.43 billion yuan , while Handan City has the lowest net benefits, amounting to −0.58 billion yuan. The results may provide scientific support for the promotion of older vehicle and diesel vehicle scrappage subsidy policies, the development of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and effective environmental decision-making in China. • Based on net number of scrappage YLVs, net benefits of the policy are calculated. • This paper estimates costs and benefits of the policy based on 1.27 million YLVs. • The costs, benefits, and net benefits are 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan. • The results help China promote vehicle scrappage subsidy policy on a large scale. • The results promote the development of the cost-benefit analysis in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By means of the three-scale input-output analysis, this study, taking Hebei Province in China as a case work, analyzes the water use in the provincial district and compares that between regional and urban economies. To the best of our knowledge, this paper pioneers providing a multi-scale perspective in a spectrum from global, national and regional scale, into regional water use allocation and water-saving policy making in Hebei province. The embodied water intensities for Hebei are revealed to be higher than that of the global average, but relatively approximate to that of the national average. The fact that water embodied in Hebei’s final demand is much lower than the direct water withdrawal is unveiled, with large amounts of foreign embodied water exports and domestic imports flowing through the primary and secondary industries. The network outlines detailed supply and demand chains of water resources in Hebei province from global, national, and regional scales, laying a solid foundation for reasonable allocation of water resources in regional economies in context of regional development and urban integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the relationship between landscape diversity and crop production using big data techniques. In the case study area of Hebei Province, China, there is a positive ecological effect of landscape diversity on crop production (coefficient of H (Shannon's index) and H 2 on crop production are 7.9665 and −2.2388 respectively), and a negative effect via operating cultivated land change (coefficient of H and H 2 on cultivated land change are −5.4253 and 1.5520 respectively). This negative effect is measured with big data techniques and is explained by variables such as the ratio of cultivated land and other basic local conditions. The net effect of landscape diversity on crop production is negative, all else the same, reflecting the strength of the impact through cultivated land change. Thus, it is important to adhere to a certain level of landscape diversity if crop production is to be sustained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Balancing socioeconomic development with water resources among cities is critical for the sustainable development of urban agglomerations. Despite this urgent need to analyse balanced development, a recognized method to measure and improve the balanced degree in urban agglomerations impacted by water resource constraints is still lacking. This study proposes a framework to evaluate the balanced development degree and simulate the impacts of interactions and management policies of economy-society-water on balanced development in urban agglomerations. This paper establishes a balanced development degree index using the coupling coordinated degree (CCD) model; constructs a system dynamic (SD) model to simulate economy-society-water interactions; and designs future scenarios to evaluate the impacts of industry, population, water, and comprehensive regulation policies on balanced development. The integrated framework that couples the above three methods was validated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China. The results showed that (a) industrial and population regulations slightly increase the level of balanced development by 0.0025 and 0.0024 in the BTH region but will increase water scarcity in Hebei; (b) improving water use efficiency is an effective way to relieve water stress; and (c) the balanced degree increases by 15% under comprehensive regulatory policies. Integrated water-economy-society management makes it possible to achieve co-development without increasing the water crisis in the BTH region. This study provides support for policy-makers and promotes sustainable development of the water-economy-society in urban agglomerations. [Display omitted] • A framework for balancing urban agglomerations under water constraints is developed. • An index of urban agglomerations balanced development is established. • Efficiency of the proposed approach is examined in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. • The water system is key to balanced development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the advantages of avoiding land-use competition, biomass from agricultural residues is a promising solution to alleviate the energy crisis and environmental problems. In the traditional biomass utilization management problem, few studies have considered that land and water are key resources for the sustainable development of biomass from a life cycle view. Concerning the complex food-water-energy nexus, this paper focuses on the synergetic management of crop planting structure and biomass utilization as a whole system. An integrated framework is proposed for the co-optimization of cropland distribution and biomass utilization pathway under multiple uncertainties. Base on interval programming and fuzzy set theory, a type-2 fuzzy interval linear programming model is developed to handle multiple uncertainties with various characteristics and provide the optimum strategies for decision makers with different risk preferences. The proposed framework is verified by a case study of Hebei Province, China. Moreover, the impacts of water shortage and the implementation of the carbon price on the optimized strategies, economic and environmental benefits are investigated to provide deeper management insights when facing complex external factors. The obtained results suggest that corn and wheat will still be the primary crops, and bioethanol production will gain priority in the biomass utilization pathways for economic purposes. Water resources availability will greatly affect the crop planting allocation as well as total benefits but barely influence the biomass utilization pathways. Furthermore, with the implementation of the carbon trade market, a higher carbon price will stimulate biomass pellets production to replace fossil fuel consumption and improve the economic benefits directly. • Synergetic management of crop planting and biomass utilization is proposed. • A novel hybrid inexact programming approach is developed to address uncertainties. • The impacts of water resources availability are analyzed from a nexus perspective. • The influences of carbon price on the biomass utilization pathway are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]