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Compared to cast-in-situ construction, prefabricated construction reduces the generation of construction waste; however, construction waste cannot be entirely eliminated through prefabrication and can be generated at each stage of its life cycle. This paper generates a system dynamics model, comprising two causal-loop diagrams and one stock-flow diagram, to simulate the effectiveness of policies on decarbonizing prefabricated concrete building waste. The model can predict the annual and total construction waste, along with the associated carbon emissions, under different policy scenarios in China by 2030. This paper focuses on prefabricated concrete buildings in China, with specific attention to the wastage of concrete, bricks, mortar, and metal. In single-factor scenario simulations, increasing landfilling fee is the most effective policy for waste decarbonization, potentially reducing carbon emissions by 31%. Increasing prefabrication rate and enhancing regulation degree at the design phase of prefabrication can directly reduce prefabricated building waste generation, subsequently resulting in an 18% and 7% carbon emissions reduction. Multi-factor scenario simulations demonstrate that the simultaneous application of all four policies is most effective, achieving a 44% reduction in carbon emissions. This research establishes a theoretical framework for prefabricated concrete building waste management and provides the Chinese government with practical insights on optimizing policies for waste decarbonization in the dynamic landscape of prefabrication. • This paper develops the prefabricated building waste generation and disposal systems. • The model predicts the construction waste and associated carbon emissions by 2030. • Raising landfill fee is an effective policy for decarbonizing construction waste by 31.06%. • Prefabrication rate reaching 100% can reduce 18.04% of carbon emissions from waste. • Applying all policies is most effective, achieving a 44.34% carbon emissions reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A good risk warning model is an effective way to guarantee the stable operation of the carbon market and exert its emission reduction function. This paper takes the China's pilot carbon market as the research object and measures the carbon market risk by ARMA-GARCH-VaR. Then, influential factors are selected as non-market characteristics from the perspective of causality and incorporated into the risk warning model, and SMOTE and SMOTEENN are introduced to deal with the unbalanced samples. Results show that (1) The risk fluctuations of Beijing and Shenzhen carbon market are large, and the risk fluctuations of Guangdong carbon market are relatively smooth in the early period and larger in the recent period. (2) Air quality, average daily temperature, CSI 300, power coal, natural gas, European carbon market, exchange rate, and Baidu index are all important factors in the risk volatility of carbon market. (3) The Classification Decision Tree (CDT) has the best performance. CDT has the best performance in Guangdong carbon market, SMOTE-CDT has the best performance in Hubei carbon market, and SMOTEENN-CDT has the best performance in Shanghai carbon market, in which SMOTEENN-CDT has a 76% Recall. The non-equilibrium treatment improves the overall Recall, and the risk warning model after non-equilibrium treatment can avoid missing important risk points. This paper can provide a certain degree of reference for the improvement of carbon trading market and risk management. [Display omitted] • A carbon market warning model is constructed. • The average VaR of the carbon trading markets in Shenzhen and Beijing is larger. • CDT performs better in market risk warning. • The model improves 34.8% in the avoidance of risk compared with other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the goal of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality" in China, it is significant to explore whether emission reduction commitments contribute to carbon risk premium. Therefore, based on a sample of Chinese listed companies that publicly disclosed questionnaires in the CDP from 2009 to 2021, this paper empirically examines the relationship between emission reduction commitments and carbon risk premium and their formation mechanism. The results show that emission reduction commitments can effectively hedge the carbon risk premium, which pass several robustness tests. Specifically, the more comprehensive and ambitious the commitment is, the greater the suppression of the carbon risk premium. The mechanism test shows that disclosing emission reduction commitment information can reduce carbon risk by improving investor confidence and attracting political resources. Differences in enterprise emission levels, regional environmental regulation intensity and green financial development result in different risk-hedging effects of emission reduction commitments. Moreover, the greater the substantial pressure from stakeholders, the greater the tendency for firms to set up emission reduction commitments. Finally, the heterogeneity analysis reveals that confidence level of commitments has a significant impact on risk premium. Specifically, enterprises with SBTi validation, higher CDP ratings and higher target completion are more helpful in curbing carbon risk premium. Our findings contribute to corporate commitment to climate change and complement the carbon risk premium hypothesis. [Display omitted] The possible highlights of this study are as follows. • With the help of forward-looking information on emission reduction commitments, we re-examine the conclusion of the carbon risk premium and find that emission reduction commitments can effectively hedge the risk premium, enriching and developing the carbon risk premium hypothesis • This paper brings commitment levels and carbon emission levels into a unified analytical framework to study the correspondence between emission reduction commitments made under pressure to reduce emissions and the carbon risk premium, providing micro evidence for solving the mystery of the carbon risk premium. • Measure emission reduction commitment indicators from various angles, making the data on emission reduction commitments more objective and scientific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because transport in the port hinterlands heavily depends on roads with negative externalities, much social interest has been in modal shifts (MSs) to rail and shipping with lower environmental impact. Currently, leading industry sectors to ambitiously embrace technological innovations to decarbonize—consequently, in line with these changes, the significance of MSs should change; however, no previous studies have comprehensively presented the overall CO 2 emissions and transport mode shares for future regional cargo transport. This paper presents a scenario analysis of CO 2 emission reductions in the Japanese domestic hinterland of international maritime container transport based on future scenarios of technological innovation and change in shipper behavior. The simulation results using the global logistics intermodal network simulation model showed that up to 87% CO 2 reduction is possible, and the primary driver for this is technological innovation. Moreover, the significance of MSs fluctuates depending on the advancement of technological innovation, suggesting that MSs hold a degree of import as a decarbonization measure during the transitional phase toward carbon neutrality (CN) as technological innovation advances. The results of this study, which fluctuated considerably by scenario and timing, have policy implications with respect to the path to be followed toward CN, including whether to promote MSs. • Scenario analysis of CO 2 emission reductions in Japanese maritime transportation. • Up to 87% CO 2 reduction possible using technological innovation. • Significance of modal shifts fluctuated with the degree of technological innovation. • Policy implications suggesting that the path toward carbon neutrality is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's climate and environmental problems remained prominent. Energy transition was the key to improve climate and pollution, and it was at a critical period. Previous studies mostly focused on the impact of climate policies on the reduction of air pollutants and the environmental health impacts of individual sector or pathway policies. Thus, focusing on the synergistic abatement of CO 2 and air pollutants and health effects of energy transition in carbon neutrality was significant for building beautiful and healthy China. LEAP-HEA model was constructed to project energy demand, CO 2 and air pollutants, and assess energy transition's environmental health effects from 2020 to 2060. LMDI model was adopted to decompose the abatement contribution. Synergistic assessment index was used to estimate the coordinated abatement effects. Cost-effectiveness of energy transition and regional heterogeneity of PM 2.5 toxicity were not considered. The results indicated: (1) energy demand would decrease and structure would be optimized significantly under deep energy transition scenario. (2) Deep energy transition could promote earlier realization of carbon neutrality. It would contribute significantly to CO 2 and air pollutants abatement with strong synergistic effects. (3) Energy transition would reduce health risks with large economic benefits. Recommendations were proposed based on the conclusions. The framework of LEAP-HEA model. [Display omitted] • The synergistic abatement and health effect of energy transition were explored. • The models of LEAP, LMDI, exposure-response and the data of 2020 were used. • Energy transition would have significant synergistic abatement and health effect. • The paper has significance for promoting carbon neutrality and healthy China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the urgency of the transition to renewable energy, this study examines the challenges and opportunities associated with the electrification of heavy-duty vehicles, particularly new energy construction dump trucks, in China. Through a combination of policy analysis and empirical research, it investigates drivers' purchase intentions towards these alternative energy vehicles in a designated study area. The findings reveal that while policies aimed at encouraging adoption are in place, drivers' purchase intentions remain low due to factors such as high costs, technical concerns, inadequate infrastructure, and satisfaction with existing trucks. Specifically, the study identifies key technical challenges, including battery performance and range limitations, and advocates for a shift in policy support towards product development to address these issues. Overall, the paper highlights the need for a comprehensive approach that combines policy incentives with technological advancements to promote the widespread adoption of new energy construction dump trucks in China and achieve sustainability and carbon neutrality goals in the transportation sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to probe collaborative environmental governance (CEG) in China's "1 + N" policy framework for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this paper applies the Actor-network theory (ANT) as an analytical framework to explore carbon reduction policy coordination. We then model ANT's relations with an evolutionary game theory (EGT) model to examine the evolutionarily stable strategies in CO 2 emission reduction by various actors including the central government, local governments, commercial banks, and polluting enterprises. Our objective is to examine policy coordination as the key enabler for governing success via an ANT-based mechanism design in China's institutional context. Combining the strength of ANT with a four-party EGT model, we investigate how to improve policy coordination to mobilize the actor-network for promoting CEG. Simulations are conducted to examine the effectiveness of policy coordination involving multiple policy instruments for controlling carbon emissions. The central government fulfills leadership in translating the interests of other actors and shaping the desired collaborative network. Without proper coordination, environmental policies may counteract each other. Government transfers and subsidies have direct impacts, but in the long run enhanced competitiveness and profitability of enterprises represent the intrinsic key to CEG success. From a methodology perspective, policy simulation in an EGT framework represents a novel addition to the research toolbox that expands ANT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan's per capita carbon emissions ranks first in Asia. Whether Taiwan's current "2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland" energy transition policy can achieve the goal of greenhouse gas reduction is an issue that needs to be studied urgently. On the basis of studying the status quo of energy supply and demand and carbon emissions in Taiwan, this paper first uses an econometric model to predict Taiwan's energy demand from 2021 to 2030, and then uses a Markov chain model to predict its energy structure changes and CO 2 emission trends under different scenarios, and evaluates the impact of its energy transition policies on carbon emission reduction goals. On this basis, by comparing the carbon trading markets on both sides of the Taiwan strait, the feasibility of and obstacles to the cross-strait cooperation in the carbon trading market are discussed in depth, and the opportunities for future cross-strait cooperation in the carbon trading market are proposed innovatively. The empirical results of this paper show that the carbon emissions in 2025 under the energy transition policy will be reduced by 59.8–61.1 million tons compared with those without planning constraints, but compared with the carbon reduction target (a reduction of 124.8–133 million tons), there is still a long way to go. The contribution potential of the annual carbon emission reduction target is only 45.9%–47.9%, and the contribution potential in 2030 is 57.2%–60.1%. The current "2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland" policy is not in line with Taiwan's current reality, and it is difficult to achieve the expected carbon reduction goal. In order to realize the energy transition in Taiwan in the future, it is necessary to make overall planning of energy policies, explore the cross-strait power cooperation model, and gradually try to build a cross-strait carbon trading market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sustained growth of global aviation emissions has highlighted the urgent need for using Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) to replace traditional aviation fuels to mitigate emissions. SAFs can potentially reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50%–90% compared to conventional jet fuels. This paper collected aviation emissions data from South American routes between 2019 and 2021, and the GWP100 method was used to convert CH 4 and N 2 O emissions into CO 2 equivalents. Additionally, emissions from the South American route between 2023 and 2070 were predicted, as well as the amount of subsidy required to promote the use of SAFs under four different scenarios. The result shows that adopting SAFs could reduce approximately 69.3 million to 113.53 million tons of CO 2 -equivalent emissions in South America by 2070. However, the South American aviation industry will likely embrace using SAFs only if the carbon trading price exceeds 0.273 times the difference between SAFs and jet fuel prices. • This study calculates the emission reduction effects under four scenarios. • The GWP100 method is used to convert non-CO 2 emissions into CO 2 equivalent emissions. • SAFs can reduce 69.3–113.53 million tons of CO 2 -equivalent emissions by 2070. • Using SAFs is profitable when carbon price exceeds 0.273 times SAFs-kerosene price gap. • Using SAFs earlier will increase subsidies by $3.65–4.56 billion every five years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital technologies are a key driver of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. However, as the physical foundation supporting digital technology, how digital infrastructure affects carbon emissions is unclear. Based on the panel data from 2008 to 2019, this paper examines the impact of the Broadband China Policy on carbon emissions by adopting a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) method. The empirical findings indicate that, first, digital infrastructure development plays a significant role in reducing carbon emissions in China. Second, the Broadband China Policy significantly reduces carbon emissions especially in China's low-carbon emission regions, high-level digitization regions, and non-resource-cursed regions. Third, the implementation of the Broadband China Policy facilitates carbon emissions reduction through the promotion of green technology progress, optimization of industrial structures, green transformation of residents' lifestyles, and electrification of energy mix. Finally, the Broadband China Policy has a positive spatial spillover effect on the carbon intensity in the surrounding regions of pilot cities, but it has no significant effect on the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions in the surrounding regions. The results provide important insights for digital infrastructure construction to achieve a win-win situation for economic development and emission reduction. • It explores the impact of Broadband China Policy on carbon emissions reduction. • Digital infrastructure development has positive impact on reducing carbon emissions. • The reduction effect is heterogeneous in regions with different characteristics. • Carbon emissions can be reduced at both industrial and individual levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significant carbon emissions generated by China's sludge treatment industry cannot be ignored. However, with only a few recent well-executed studies on carbon emission reduction in the sludge treatment field, the literature awaits a more comprehensive assessment and prediction whether the sludge treatment industry can achieve the dual-carbon target. This article aims to fill this gap, holistically examining the carbon emission reduction potential in the industry. Using the moving average method and IPCC method, the projected carbon emission value of sludge treatment in China from 2021 to 2030 indicates a total net carbon emission of 0.3 million tons by 2030. This suggests that the sludge treatment industry is on track to meet the carbon peak target, leaving surplus carbon quotas or credits available to assist other industries for carbon emissions reductions. The study also finds that only incineration and composting demonstrate the potential to be able to partially offset carbon emissions through resource utilization in certain stages or processes. Therefore, the current sludge treatment methods do not yield comprehensive emission reduction effects and cannot provide sufficient contribution to China's dual carbon goals. To address this issue, the paper explores a new scheme that focuses on improving the sludge treatment process. The scheme comparative analysis reveals that, even with all sludge treatment methods optimized, the total net carbon emissions of the industry could only be reduced to 0.058 million tons. This reduction falls short of significantly mitigating carbon emissions to achieve the carbon neutrality goal. Therefore, industries unable to achieve substantial net carbon reduction may need to explore alternative measures, such as carbon sinks, to ultimately attain carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and associated marginal costs (MC) in Japan when the government enhances the transition to battery electric passenger vehicles (BEVs) by implementing a rapid investment regime for charging stations and fossil-fueled vehicle bans. Important factors affecting BEV emissions are battery performance, battery production technology, electricity generation mix and battery minimum state of charge (SOC min). We find that in addition to a rapid investment regime, a fossil-fueled vehicles ban policy is necessary to significantly increase the uptake of BEVs and achieves the deepest reduction in life cycle GHG emissions. Under this policy, with carbon neutral electricity by 2050 and a low SOC min charging regime, life-cycle GHG emissions are reduced by 48% and the MC by 53% in 2060. A carbon neutral light transport fleet in 2050 will require carbon capture and storage to offset 24 million tonnes-CO 2 equivalent of emissions even if electricity is carbon neutral by 2050 and users adhere to a low SOC min charging regime. [Display omitted] • Enhanced infrastructure development has a little impact on the uptake of BEVs. • The more stringent vehicle ban reduces life cycle GHG emissions the most. • Battery charging regime is crucial to GHG emissions reduction and associated cost. • Improving battery and vehicle production is crucial to GHG emissions reduction. • Carbon neutral light vehicle transport by 2050 requires carbon capture and storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Towards the target of carbon neutrality, the need for deep decarbonization in iron and steel industry is increasingly recognized. Existing studies rarely mention the effects of collaboration with its source industries for carbon emission reduction in ISI. Furthermore, the fundamental laws of CO 2 emission reduction capacity with cost change of source substitutions for various steel production routes under market economics are unclear. To avoid the blind substitution of clean sources for meeting the urgent requirements for decarbonization in China's steel industry, which may result in increased carbon emissions and uneconomical carbon reduction from a lifecycle perspective. This paper integrates the production and utilization processes of source resources into the steel production process, establishes coupling models of carbon and value flows for four main types of steel production routes, and aims to quantitatively analyze the specific CO 2 emission reduction potential and costs. Three economic market development scenarios from 2021 to 2060 are set, and the marginal carbon prices of various source substitutions are determined. Subsequently, decarbonization pathways with the goal of minimizing production costs are developed. Finally. The future resource demand and the carbon emission reduction contributions of source industries collaborated are predicted. The results show that (1) about 81.7–89.9 % of CO 2 emissions could be reduced in the scenarios; (2) the demands of electric power and hydrogen energy will reach 54.48–511.90 BkWh and 7.47–10.31 Gt in 2060, respectively; and (3) collaboration with source industries could make 18.3–18.3% of CO 2 emission reduction contributions. All in all, this study could provide scientific support for the low-carbon transformation of China's steel industry. • Carbon and value flows of BF-BOF, Scrap-EAF, DRI-EAF, MOE-EAF routes are analyzed. • CO 2 emission reduction potential with marginal carbon price is determined. • Decarbonization paths during 2021–2060 for China's steel industry are developed. • Quantify the contribution of collaborative carbon reduction with source industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meeting energy needs and ensuring ecological sustainability are important tasks for policymakers. In particular, changing the energy mix used in daily electricity generation can have a major effect on ecological conditions, and this is a previously neglected research topic. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the influence of daily electricity generation from nuclear power and renewables on the achievement of carbon neutrality targets in the four largest nuclear power countries (i.e., the U.S., China, France, and Russia). The study applies the wavelet-transform coherence (WTC), quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR), and Granger causality in quantiles (GCQ) approaches for the period from January 2, 2019 to December 29, 2022. The outcomes present that electricity generation from nuclear energy reduces carbon (CO 2) emissions only in Russia, while hydropower generation does not contribute to CO 2 emission reduction in any country. Solar electricity generation decreases CO 2 emissions in different quantiles in the U.S. and Russia, while electricity generation from wind power reduces CO 2 emissions in the U.S. and France. The empirical outcomes also reveal that expanding solar, wind, and nuclear power in the energy mix can enhance the potential of the U.S., France, and Russia to achieve carbon neutrality and secure a sustainable future. However, China is using nuclear and renewables inefficiently regarding carbon neutrality. Therefore, the empirical evidence for China is highly controversial compared to former studies. [Display omitted] • The study examines renewable and nuclear electricity effect on carbon neutrality. • The study focuses on top four major nuclear power countries. • The study applies nonlinear approaches by using high-frequency (daily) data. • Renewable and nuclear electricity have time, frequency, & quantile-varying effect. • The best electricity source change according to each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission trading, a market-incentive environmental regulation, plays a critical role in leading China towards the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. To improve the national carbon emission trading in China, we analyze the effects of the policy in pilot provinces and pilot A-share listed firms from 2008 to 2016. Particularly, to explore the pilot policy's environmental and financial impacts, this paper applies a difference-in-difference method. After the robustness check, the results confirm the carbon emission trading pilot's significantly positive impact at both firm- and province-level regarding carbon emission reduction. Meanwhile, corporate innovation seems to partially mediate the relationship between the policy and corporate carbon emission reduction. Plus, the policy promotes firms' market-based financial performance but such impact on accounting-based financial performance is insignificant. Ultimately, the operational mechanism of the policy is proved to be effective. In this paper, industry- and firm-level carbon emissions databases are established via environmental extended input-output table, which fill the research gap of China's firm-level carbon emissions. To ensure the reliability of results, the list of covered firms is sorted out manually in accordance with the disclosed data of seven carbon trading markets. Our results are meaningful for avoid productivity reduction and mechanism re-design in the context of the national carbon emission trading launched in 2021. Specifically, encouraging firms to further improve their productivity and competitiveness by innovation could eventually achieve a win-win situation between economic performance and environmental merits in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the severe problems caused by global warming, controlling greenhouse-gas emissions has become an emerging topic around the world. This situation has led to the implementation of legislations, forcing companies to implement innovations and strategies to prevent and reduce carbon emissions. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of implementing these strategies and the estimation to fulfill Kyoto Protocol's 2020 target Emission Trading Schemes needs to be further analysed and discussed. This paper reviews the existing greenhouse-gas-emission legislations, as well as carbon offset programs worldwide. A detailed analysis on carbon emissions trends related to emissions penalties is shown for six major countries. The optimal penalty for emissions trading schemes is also analyzed and discussed in this paper. Future changes that could be made to the existing programs for enhancing their effectiveness are also suggested. It was found that carbon emissions decreased around 1.58% per year since Emission Trading Schemes implementation. Around 23.43% of CO 2 reduction can be reached after 10 years of Emission Trading Schemes implementation, compared to the trend when Emission Trading Schemes was not implemented. Despite Emission Trading Schemes implementation is extremely recent, based on the existing data a first estimation of the optimal penalty in achieving the maximum carbon reduction it was found around US$90.22 per tonne. However, as the implementation period of Emission Trading Schemes is still limited for most countries, it is necessary to explore similar analysis as future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting low-carbon development in the iron and steel industry (ISI) is essential for China to achieve the carbon neutrality targets. This paper separately adopts the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique and the Mean Impact Value (MIV) method to analyze the impact of driving factors on the CO 2 emissions of ISI in the historical and future dimensions. Furthermore, this paper establishes the extreme learning machine model optimized by the bat algorithm (BA-BP) to explore the carbon emission reduction pathways of ISI in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the low-speed, medium-speed and high-speed development scenarios considering the constraints of carbon neutrality targets. The results reveal that: (1) Production capacity and energy efficiency are important drivers of CO 2 emissions in ISI; (2) The emission reduction situation is not optimistic under the BAU scenario, and it is difficult to accomplish the carbon neutrality goals by 2060; (3) Under the most ideal emission reduction pathway (corresponding to the high-speed development scenario), ISI will reach its peak in 2022 with the peak value of 2143.42 MtCO 2. Compared to the peak year, the CO 2 emissions will be reduced by 654.69 MtCO 2 and 1558.61 MtCO 2 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Moreover, the achievement of short-term and long-term emission reduction targets depends on production capacity decline and technological progress, respectively. The optimal emission reduction pathway provides a reference for ISI to formulate periodic emission reduction targets. • The improved extreme learning machine is employed to predict the carbon emissions. • The emission reduction pathways are explored under the carbon neutrality target. • Controlling production capacity is a crucial reduction strategy. • The energy rebound effect is supposed to be weakened. • The application of advanced technologies will greatly promote emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The digital economy is of great significant for carbon emission reduction. To estimate the impact on carbon emissions of digital economy, this paper conducts nonlinear analysis with the combination of spatial DURBIN model (SDM) and panel threshold model (PTM). Moreover, this paper decomposes the carbon emissions reduction effect into direct part and spatial spillover part, further analyzes the action mechanism from the perspective of technology progress, energy use and industrial structure. The empirical results indicate that the digital economy and carbon emissions have inverted U-shaped relationship. Similarly, the spatial spillover effect of digital economy on carbon emissions is also inverted-U shape. The digital economy increases first and then reduces the carbon emissions. The robustness tests and endogenous analysis both support above conclusions. Compared with the indirect effect, the direct effect of digital economy on carbon emissions is significantly greater. Moreover, the long-term effect of digital economy on carbon emissions is greater than the short-term effect. The impact of digital economy on carbon emissions exists regional heterogeneity. Different from the eastern and central regions, the digital economy in western region promotes carbon emissions monotonically. The impact of digital economy on carbon emissions faces significant resource endowment thresholds, urban scale thresholds and innovative capability thresholds. The increase of energy use and non-green technology progress are the main paths to influence local carbon emissions in short term, while the green technology progress and industrial structure upgrade become dominant paths in long term. The active demonstration of industrial structure upgrade and technology spillovers drive the spillover effect of digital economy on carbon emissions in long term. This paper suggests that, the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutral needs to strengthen the digital economy and promote the regional cooperation in environmental governance. The green integration of digital economy and traditional industries is of great significant for carbon emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the goal of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality" in China, it is significant to explore whether green finance contributes to carbon emission reduction. Therefore, based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020, this paper empirically examines the impact of green finance on carbon emissions and its mechanism using the FE model, GMM model, DID, and the mediating effect model. Results find that green finance can significantly promote carbon emissions reduction, and this promotion remains still after robustness tests. The heterogeneity analysis shows that green finance's carbon emission reduction effect is more significant in developed and western regions. Moreover, the results of policy intervention effects confirm that green finance reform and innovation pilot zones (GFRIs) for carbon emission reduction are more pronounced than in other regions. Finally, the mediating effects reveal that industrial structure and green innovation are the core transmission channels through which green finance influences carbon emission reduction. These findings offer meaningful implications for formulating reasonable carbon emission reduction plans and determining the future development direction of green finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an energy-sharing market coupled with carbon emission trading to quantify peer-to-peer energy-sharing markets' economic and environmental influences. We establish a bi-level peer-to-peer energy sharing market considering the interaction between energy prosumers and the system operator. An interaction algorithm and generalized Nash game are thus applied in this work. With the simulation results, we find that the daily disutility of provincial systems is reduced by about 7 ¥ when time-of-use electricity rates are applied. This pricing strategy can encourage prosumers to participate in energy-sharing transactions. The subsidies of electricity rates, carbon prices, and renewable energy investments can improve the social welfare of the whole system. Considering the development of power generation technology and emission reduction targets, the change of optimization parameters in the next 30 years is analyzed in the example. It can be concluded that the total CO2 emission in 2050 will be reduced to almost half of that in 2020 in the energy-sharing markets. The subsidy of renewable energy generation and stricter CO2 emission constraints may accelerate the reduction of carbon emissions. [Display omitted] • It is the first time to assess the environmental effect of peer-to-peer energy trading with actual data. • We analyze the peer-to-peer energy trading impacts on the carbon emission amount in China. • We compare the market participants' revenue and CO2 emission considering the different scenarios. • We develop a bi-level coupled emission right trading market to verify whether total emission is reduced. • The development of technologies and various energy structures are considered quantitatively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategy have become China's national strategy. Given the significant regional differences in China, the Chinese government has proposed "one policy for one province" guiding principle for carbon emission reduction. This study takes Tianjin as a representative of "a province-level city with high degree of industrialization and prominent emerging industries", and Gansu Province a representative of "a province with a low degree of industrialization but the potential for green energy". Using the integrated modeling frameworkthis study conducts a comparative analysis of the hidden flows generated by inter-provincial inward and outward transfers and extracts a feasible model for carbon neutrality transformation. The study also focuses on carbon emission, GDP changes, carbon hidden flow change in trade and carbon emission reduction path. By comparing the results, this study identifies the mechanism of the industrial spillover effect and carbon emission spillover effect between the two regions. Then it concludes the "cross-regional transfer mode of high-carbon industries" of industrial carbon neutral transformation: more carbon emission allowances are allocated to developing regions represented by Gansu Province, implement regionally differentiated carbon emission reduction constraint policies, and achieve industrial spatial transfer through more inter-provincial transfer. The paper found that in implementing a regionally differentiated carbon emission reduction constraint policy (DE scenario), the transfer of high-carbon industries can achieve the "superposition effect" through inter-provincial transfer. Accordingly, three carbon policy mechanisms for cross-regional transfer of high-carbon industries are summarized. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has a high agricultural output and is a significant carbon emitter; thus, reducing carbon emissions in the agricultural sector is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. To address this, China implemented the National Agricultural Sustainable Development Experimental Demonstration Zone policy in 2018, in which reducing agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) is a subject of concern. We explore the impact of the policy on agricultural carbon emissions reduction (ACER) using the propensity score matching and differences-in-differences (PSM-DID) methods with a series of robustness tests based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020. The results indicate that: (1) the policy significantly reduces carbon emissions and impacts carbon emission sources, with the results passing the robustness tests. (2) According to the mechanism test, agricultural financial support mediates carbon emissions reduction, and the policy reduces these emissions by decreasing the intensity of fiscal support. (3) The heterogeneity analysis illustrates that the carbon emissions reduction effect is more evident in cities with a small urban-rural income gap and a high proportion of agricultural output value. Finally, we provide suggestions to reduce carbon emissions from the perspective of national and local governments. This paper is particularly relevant for achieving sustainable agriculture development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU sector) cover the 24% of global emissions, representing the second hot spot in the contribution to climate change after the energy sector. Thus, the land sector plays a crucial role in the context of climate change, being both a contributor to the problem and part of its solution, particularly thanks to the capacity of soils and biomass to sequester atmospheric carbon. The challenge of this paper is to understand the extent to which sustainable land management can be a valuable solution for increasing the mitigation potential of the land sector, particularly at small-scale rural landscape level.The paper presents and tests a land-based approach to be applied at small-scale rural landscape level, aiming at reducing and offsetting GHG emissions from the livestock activities, one of the main sources of GHG emissions of the whole agricultural sector. The proposed land-based approach builds on an ensemble of methodologies, including Geographic Information System (GIS) elaboration, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and methodologies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that allow estimating livestock GHG emissions and the mitigation potential of sustainable land-use options applied in the same small-scale rural landscape.Results from a case study in Italy show that land-based mitigation options applied at small-scale rural landscape level can reduce and completely offset the GHG livestock emissions of the same area, leading to carbon neutral livestock systems. Thus, this study confirms that the land sector can strongly contribute to climate change mitigation if sustainable land-use options are applied. • Land-based mitigation options at small-scale landscape level can lead to carbon neutral livestock systems. • Land sector can strongly contribute to climate change mitigation if sustainable land-based options are applied. • Land-based mitigation options can be applied in the immediate proximity of the livestock GHG emissions source. • Land-based climate change mitigation contributes also to a wide range of ecological co-benefits at landscape level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sand and gravel aggregate (SGA) transportation accounts for over 30% of the freight volume in China, which is greater than that of any other cargo; low-carbon development can effectively promote the decarbonization of freight transportation. This study presents a four-step evaluation method to assess CO 2 emission reductions in freight transportation; the proposed method helps determine the relationship between the policy, CO 2 emission reductions, demand, and mode market share. Using Beijing as a case study, this paper estimates the potential of reducing CO 2 emissions from SGA transportation under various scenarios. The scenarios are set based on the avoid, shift, and improve strategies; the results of the Beijing case indicate that the CO 2 emission for SGA transportation is 920.86 kt, which is approximately 1% of the total CO 2 emissions in Beijing. The maximum reductions in CO 2 emissions that can be achieved using the avoid, shift, and improve strategies are 0.92 kt (0.1% of total), 560.52 kt (60.9% of total), and 78.59 kt (8.5% of total), respectively. The shift strategy is confirmed to be the most realistic and cost-effective approach for reducing CO 2 emissions from SGA transportation. In addition, the implementation of subsidy policies is discussed. Marginal abatement costs under the subsidy scenarios are higher than 224 CNY/t, which is higher than the price in the Chinese carbon trading market. • We evaluated CO 2 emission of aggregate transportation in Beijing at the OD level. • CO 2 emission reductions of the avoid, shift, and improve strategies were tested. • Shift strategy performed the best in reducing CO 2 emission. • Avoid and improve strategies can reduce CO 2 emission; but the effects were limited. • Subsidizing rail transport reduced more emission than subsidizing electric trucks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transportation in Jiangsu province has been developed rapidly. However, the development was accompanied with a large amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions. Combined with the coefficient in 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and China's calorific value, this article calculated the carbon emission coefficient of usual energy covered by Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook (JSY) in detail. Based on this, carbon emission of transportation in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2012 was easily estimated. And from the result which appears clearly that the construction of energy consumption was changed in 2011. According to China Electricity Power Yearbook (CEPY) and China Energy Statistical Yearbook (CESY), carbon emission caused by electricity power indirectly could be estimated. With the help of Tapio model, this paper conducted a research on decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emission of transportation in Jiangsu Province with consideration of electricity. The results show that the amount of carbon emission by electric power is significant, which makes no difference on the overall decoupling states with an obvious periodical characteristic of Weak Decoupling (Expansive Coupling)-Expansive Negative Decoupling-Weak Decoupling. Transportation has made great achievements on reducing pollution and carbon emission in Jiangsu Province since the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, and would be better on low-carbon development in potential. However, there is still a large step to realize low-carbon transportation in reality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions reduction has become a core task with the goal of "emission peak and carbon neutrality", in which green innovation plays an important role. This paper takes the fast-tracking green patent applications (FGPA) system in China as a quasi-natural experiment to empirically study the impact of green innovation incentive-based policies (GIIPs) on CO 2 emissions in Chinese cities by applying a continuous difference-in-difference approach. The results show that the CO 2 emissions of cities in the treatment group are significantly reduced by about 1.6% after the implementation of FGPA relative to that in the control group. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusion is still valid. Furthermore, the significant negative impact on CO 2 emissions is more reflected in cities located in eastern China, cities with lower financial pressure, and cities with more universities. Overall, this study fills up the gap in the empirical research on the impact of FGPA, and casts a new light on the significant environmental performance of GIIPs. The findings obtained through this study are conducive to strengthening and optimizing the implementation of FGPA, and offering policy-makers with a scientific basis of GIIPs to approach the task of reducing CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emission trading scheme (ETS) is considered as a tool to reduce emissions at a low cost, which can effectively promote the carbon peak and carbon neutrality. As the main participants in the carbon emission trading (CET) market, the behavior and strategies for governments and different types of enterprises affect the final emission reduction performance. Taking the national carbon market as an example, this paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model including governments and power generation enterprises with different emission reduction capacity to analyze the possible game situations in the development process of the CET market. The results show that with the development of the CET market, the governments and power generation enterprises will have different game results. In order to achieve the optimal stable equilibrium and maximize carbon emission reduction, governments should improve regulatory efficiency and formulate appropriate incentive strategies for excess emission reduction and punishment strategies for insufficient emission reduction. In addition, the initial willingness will not affect the final strategy choice of the three parties. Reasonable free carbon quota ratio, lower technology emission reduction cost and higher carbon price can stimulate the enthusiasm of governments and enterprises to reduce emissions. The above results provide a reference for coordinating the relationships between governments and power generation enterprises with different emission reduction capacity in the construction of the CET market in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to deal with the increasing environmental challenges, the high carbon-emitting transport system keeps transitioning to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This paper addresses the calculation of carbon emission estimation and identifying carbon reduction driving factors for the hinterland-based container intermodal network. Firstly, an analysis of the carbon emissions composition of the hinterland-based container intermodal networks is conducted. Furthermore, a carbon emission estimation model for the hinterland-based container intermodal network is developed. Subsequently, taking the Shanghai port and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) hinterland as a case, we estimate the carbon emission of the hinterland-based container intermodal network under the Well-to-Wheel (WTW) and the Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) modes in the past ten years. Finally, the critical driving factors are identified by sensitivity analysis, and the variation of carbon emissions under different scenarios with carbon reduction policies are analyzed. The results indicate that the transportation structure and the fuel choices affect network emissions reductions significantly. In the current policy-based scenario, the WTW mode achieves the carbon peaking between 2030 and 2035, while the TTW mode peaks earlier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has proposed to achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060. It is important for China to clearly understand the carbon sink of ecosystems. Most current studies focus on accounting for the carbon sink or carbon emission in the past and ignore the contribution of ecosystems to carbon neutrality in the future. The work presented in this paper projects land use changes in 2030 and 2060 under the business as usual (BAS), rapid economic development (RED), and ecological land protection (ELP) scenarios based on Multiple Objective Programming and GeoSOS-FLUS and calculates the carbon budgets and contributions of ecosystems to carbon neutrality in Qinghai during 2000–2060. The key findings are that the contributions of the terrestrial ecosystem to carbon neutrality in Qinghai are 9.92% (BAS), 10.03% (ELP) and 7.56% (RED) in 2030, and 3.23% (BAS), 3.28% (ELP) and 2.91% (RED) in 2060. These results indicate that the Qinghai ecosystem has carbon sink potential and the reduction of carbon emissions by humans is the core challenge in achieving carbon neutrality. Therefore, some recommendations have been made: 1) optimizing the land use structure to enhance the ecosystem sink in Qinghai; 2) continuing to implement the policies of ecological protection in Qinghai; 3) reducing the anthropogenic carbon emissions is the key to achieving carbon neutrality in 2060. This study not only offers data support and related policy recommendations to realize carbon neutrality goals but also provides a feasible method for future ecosystem contribution assessments under the goal of carbon neutrality. • Current land use policies in Qinghai are partial to ecological land protection. • Terrestrial ecosystem contributions to carbon neutrality are decreasing. • Terrestrial ecosystem contributions are similar in 2060 under three scenarios. • Carbon emission reduction of social system is key to achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy system modeling is highly relevant to support policymakers in defining strategies to achieve the European Green Deal targets towards carbon neutrality in 2050. Therefore, marginal CO 2 abatement cost curves are widely used in climate policy to assess the relationship between total cost changes and CO 2 emission reductions. Various methods exist for deriving abatement cost curves, leading to different results and policy implications. Most model-based methods derive smooth curves that can be transformed into step-wise curves through decomposition analysis, lacking system interactions at high temporal, sectoral, and techno-economic resolution. This paper overcomes these limitations by presenting a linear optimization approach with an hourly resolution to derive step-wise marginal CO 2 abatement cost curves for the German sector-coupled power system in 2030. Next to methodological insights, results indicate that early adoption of vehicle-to-grid ensures faster photovoltaic rooftop integration by reducing CO 2 abatement costs. Further, vehicle-to-grid replaces storage systems and decreases electricity generation costs while having no impact on CO 2 abatement costs of ground-mounted photovoltaic and onshore wind. Additionally, results show a high level of techno-economical detail and the least-cost sequential order of an optimal technology portfolio, allowing policymakers to formulate appropriate measures to achieve decarbonization targets. • A linear optimization model derives step-wise marginal CO 2 abatement cost curves. • Results show interdependencies and substitution effects of decarbonization measures. • Hourly sector-coupling analysis is performed for the German energy system in 2030. • Early VtG adoption ensures PV rooftop integration by reducing CO 2 abatement costs. • VtG replaces storage and decreases short-term electricity generation costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon sequestration of blue carbon ecosystems worldwide is as high as 237.6 Tg C/a. China is one of the countries with the most resources of blue carbon, with carbon sequestration of 0.835 Tg C/a. To develop blue economy and facilitate the fulfillment of carbon neutrality, it is of great significance for China to build the blue carbon trading market (BCTM). This paper aimed to improve the participation probability of stakeholders to construct an effective BCTM through evolutionary game theory. First, we constructed a tripartite evolutionary game model including the governments, the suppliers of blue carbon (SBC) and the demanders of blue carbon (DBC), based on the corresponding cost and benefit in BCTM. To further reveal the factors affecting the cooperation of above parties, we analyzed the sensitivity of the stakeholders through five parameters, i.e., proportion of subsidies, unit carbon tax, blue carbon credits, unit price of blue carbon credits, and the cost of carbon emission reduction unit. To verify the game model, a case study of blue carbon credits of mangrove trading was performed. The main conclusions are as follows. In the initial stage of BCTM, the governments need to play a leading role in regulating and incentivizing motivation of the SBC and DBC. Subsidies and carbon taxes are conducive to promoting BCTM to develop into the middle stage. In the middle stage, price and quota of BC credits are two primary parameters to affect the evolutionary results of above three groups. Thus, it's necessary for the governments to adjust these parameters in time. When the trading scale and operation mode of BCTM approaching stable, the market will enter into the mature stage. Then, the governments can reduce subsidies to save fiscal expenditure and lessen the intervention, so as to gradually withdraw from the market. The above conclusions can provide a theoretical basis and reference for the construction of efficient BCTM and promote the integration of blue carbon into the carbon market in China. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under low-carbon circular economy, how the government and low-carbon closed-loop supply chain (LC-CLSC) members make decisions to achieve carbon neutrality and recycling of waste resources becomes a prominent part of the study. This paper studies the altruistic mode selection and coordination of the LC-CLSC under the compound subsidy of the government from a long-term dynamic perspective. The results show that the altruistic behavior of the manufacturer as the leading party can promote emission reduction and recycling activities, and increase the retailer's profit and total profit while avoiding damage to its profit when its altruistic intensity is maintained at a reasonable level. The altruistic behavior of the retailer as the subordinate party will inhibit emission reduction and recycling activities, and increase the manufacturer's profit by damaging its profit, therefore leading to a decline in the total profit. The emission reduction subsidy rate decreases as the mutual altruistic intensity increases. The recycling subsidy rate decreases as the manufacturer's altruistic intensity increases, but it will increase as the retailer's altruistic intensity increases. Compared with other altruistic modes, the leading party manufacturer's unilateral altruistic mode can achieve a higher level of emission reduction, recycling rate, total profit, consumer surplus and social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emissions trading system (ETS) is a cost-effective way towards achieving the carbon neutrality goal. Based on the gaps in the research on carbon allowance allocation vis-à-vis the carbon neutrality target, this study examines how to allocate carbon allowances equitably and effectively among Chinese provinces. Different from the previous research that mainly considers responsibility, ability, and potential of equity dimensions, this paper proposes a composite indicator allocation approach based on the equity of history, demand, contribution, and guarantee, and it also employs the entropy method and expert survey method to obtain the indicator weight values in different scenarios. Results show that the carbon allowances of some provinces, such as the forest-rich province of Yunnan, vary significantly in five scenarios, but little differences are observed for some provinces, such as the high historical emissions province of Shanxi. More provinces achieve data envelopment analysis efficiency in the preferred scenario. Compared with the objective scenario, the required emission reduction in the preferred gross domestic product (GDP) scenario is 231 million tonnes less, and the emission reduction cost is 190 billion yuan less. It is suggested that the Chinese government should adopt the allocation scheme in preference for the GDP scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With China's aspiration of building a healthy nation and increasing its average life expectancy, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to grow in the coming years. Considering the high energy consumption and emissions in the pharmaceutical industry, striving for sustainability will be essential to achieving the 2030 target of peaking CO 2 emissions and becoming carbon neutral by 2060. This paper quantifies the reduction potential for CO 2 emissions in the pharmaceutical industry to provide policymakers with some references when decomposing the reduction task. By constructing a non-radical metafrontier Malmquist CO 2 performance index (NMMCPI), we find that the NMMCPI in the pharmaceutical industry is improved from 2005 to 2016. The three main factors influencing the changes are technical efficiency, technological advancement and technological leadership. These three factors have contributed to the growth of NMMCPI in the eastern Chinese pharmaceutical industry; however, the technological leadership effect is lacking in central and western China. There is a huge CO 2 emissions reduction potential in the pharmaceutical industry, which can be compared to UK and Brazilian emissions in 2016. In light of this, we recommend some policy implications to reduce the CO 2 emissions of the pharmaceutical industry in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of high proportion renewable energy access and multi-energy synergy, low-carbon multi-energy virtual power plants (MEVPP) are gradually getting hot. This paper introduces the carbon trading mechanism into a MEVPP and constructs a novel dynamic robust optimization model considering the source-load multiple uncertainties. Firstly, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and spectral clustering method are applied to generate the source-side output scenarios, and then by the strength of the budget uncertainty set, the concept of uncertainty measurement is established to characterize the system's uncertainties. Secondly, a two-stage robust adjustable scheduling model is developed by integrating the carbon trading cost into the objective function, and the model derived from the decomposition is solved using the column and constraint generation algorithm and strong duality theory. Finally, the economics, robustness, and low-carbon performance of the model in addressing the MEVPP scheduling issues are examined by case studies. The proposed model is capable of getting the optimal cost under the worst-case scenario, dynamically balancing the economics and robustness of the scheduling strategy with adjustable uncertainty measurement, as well as contributing to guidance of energy saving and emission reduction in MEVPP. • Carbon trading mechanism is introduced to achieve low-carbon operation. • Uncertainties on the source-load sides are handled using uncertainty measurement. • Two-stage robust optimization model is proposed to schedule multi-energy devices. • Optimal cost for worst-case can be obtained by balancing economics and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of market-based climate policies represented by the emission trading system (ETS) is an important path for countries to participate in global climate governance and achieve the goals of carbon emission peaking and carbon neutrality. Whether the covered firms can improve financial performance through bearing responsibility for cutting emissions, a "win-win" of environmental and economic achievement, is an important way to evaluate the effectiveness of ETS. Based on the Chinese A-share listed firms in industrial sector during the period of 2010–2017, this paper employs PSM-DID method to investigate the impact of China's pilot ETS on financial performance of the covered firms. The results show that the covered firm's financial performance is improved by the implementation of pilot ETS, which can increase firm's ROA by 0.01 unit. Specifically, the pilot ETS can significantly improve the financial performance of non-state-owned firms, without affecting state-owned firms. Similarly, the financial performance improvement is more significant for firms in non-energy industries. Furthermore, the pilot ETS can motivate the covered firms to gain financial profit through cutting carbon emission as a mediation path, and the mediation effect size of carbon emission intensity is 0.001. Besides, firm's innovation ability weakens this mediation path, and the well-developed institutions in pilot area, proxied by high degree of marketization, only weaken the first part of the path, namely, carbon emission reduction led by ETS. • ETS achieves a win-win of carbon emission reduction and financial performance improvement. • The improvements by ETS are heterogeneous in ownership and industry. • Firm's carbon emission intensity plays a mediation role. • Firms can gain more benefit under the ETS regulation if the market monopoly is strong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]