Low-carbon manufacturing is an emerging industrial trend and an important way to achieve sustainable development. As the country with the largest manufacturing scale and carbon dioxide emissions, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study China's low-carbon manufacturing issues. Based on the ternary analysis perspective of simmelian tie, this paper chooses to identify the influencing factors through the technology-organization-environment research framework, and derives the pathways of low-carbon manufacturing through the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method. The research results show that: (1) Under the low-carbon manufacturing goal, stable industrial chain structure and policy-sensitive are the formation reasons for the simmelian tie. (2) From the perspective of simmelian tie, low-carbon manufacturing will be influenced by the driving role of green technological advances, the supporting role of organizational strategies, and the regulatory role of the policy environment. (3) Manufacturing enterprises' low-carbon pathways are directly related to their industrial chain position. Compared with upstream enterprises, downstream enterprises have more diverse low-carbon manufacturing pathways. (4) Active governmental support can more effectively promote the realization of low-carbon manufacturing than environmental pressure. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]