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This paper investigates the causal effect of COVID-19 quarantine measures on the electricity consumption of different types of regulated customers. In particular, the average energy consumption of a group of customers in Chile is examined, exploiting the weekly variations in the application of the stages of the Step by Step Plan as a natural experiment. Step by Step Plan was the Chile COVID containment strategy, which involved implementing partial lockdowns based on the COVID incidence in the municipalities, and adjusted on a weekly basis. An econometric model is specified, and estimated using the technique Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference (DDD) to quantify the causal impact of these measures. After applying the model, it is found that the quarantine measures have had a negative effect on the trend weekly consumption of customers located in municipalities where some of the phases of the Plan have been applied. This effect is significantly different depending on each stage of the plan analysis, and statistically significant. It is also observed that, on average, the savings for a representative customer in the sample range from $ 8 to $ 6. 15 for some municipalities, and the sample costs range from $ 0. 02 to $ 0. 26 for others, depending on the municipality analyzed. The results can be expressed in a total of 2.95 tons less CO 2 emitted on a monthly basis. This shows a great impact in terms of sustainability and planning of energy demand and supply. • Quarantines by Covid 19 affected energy consumption, like a "Natural Experiment". • Using Panel Data of 400 thousand observations with geographic, temporal and Daylight Saving Time controls. • Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference method to quantify causal impact of quarantines on electric consumption. • Applying quarantines generated Energetic Savings from 8 cents to 6.15 dollars depending on client type. • An Event Study was designed to check the estimation results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regional impact of climate change on heating and cooling demand is important to consider when designing optimal long-term energy policies. Several studies have addressed this issue, but either at a very aggregated level or without optimizing the whole energy system. The aims of this paper are to fill this gap in a generic way and to assess the impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy demands for residential and commercial sectors at the regional and nodal levels in the context of Chile's energy transition. We propose a methodology based on high resolution climate simulations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. First, a statistical analysis is performed to estimate the long-term trends of so-called heating and cooling degree-days and their impact on final regional energy demands. Then, demand pathways in the energy transition are assessed using a multi-sectoral energy planning model. Numerical experiments using data from Chile show an overall positive economic impact of climate change (limited to heating and cooling demands) for the energy system, with a significant decrease in heating demand compared to a limited increase in cooling requirements. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, cost reductions reach 2.1% of the total discounted system cost on the 2020-2050 period mainly due to a significant decrease of gas consumption for heating. This research highlights the importance for policymakers to consider climate change in efficient energy policies. [Display omitted] • Climate change impact on heating/cooling is assessed for Chile's energy transition. • Significant heating demand decrease and low cooling demand increase are observed. • A global positive economic impact for the energy system is estimated. • For the RCP 8.5 scenario, cost reductions reach 2.1% of the total discounted system cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon taxes have been proposed as a major instrument to mitigate carbon emissions and promote an energy transition to low carbon sources. However, its adoption remains politically challenging, particularly amid rising inflation and energy prices. Despite the need for more aggressive action on carbon mitigation to reach the Paris Agreement goals, few countries in Latin America have adopted carbon taxes and the tax levels are relatively low. A key concern for these countries, is to adequately assess the tradeoffs between stricter emission goals and the potential negative economy wide as well as sectoral and distributive impacts. In this context, in this paper we first propose a step by step approach to enhance an existing dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Chile based on OECD's Green model. The contribution of this research is twofold. Firstly, emission factors are estimated and the development of the electricity sector is aligned with the expectations of decision makers. As a result, credible emission and energy sector development forecasts are generated by the model, that are in line with what policymakers expect to happen based on other bottom-up engineering models. Secondly, this baseline is then used in the CGE model to examine the use of a carbon tax to reach Chile's first Nationally Determined Contribution. The required tax level is determined together with CO2 emissions and the economywide, sectoral and distributive impacts. The results allow concluding about the applicability of carbon taxes and possible complementary measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implementing nationally determined contributions is more challenging for developing countries given potential economic consequences. Chile, a developing economy, is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. To do so, Chile announced multiple mitigation strategies such as phasing out coal by 2040, peaking emissions by 2025, and developing renewable energies. Fortunately, Chile holds a prominent renewable potential, standing out for solar, but it also has a significant challenge decarbonizing an economy that heavily relies on fossil fuels. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the first country-level disaggregated version of GCAM Latin America (GCAM-LA) was developed, where all South American countries are modeled as an independent energy-economy region. This model includes Chile as a separated region and incorporates interactions among the energy, water, agriculture and land use, economy, and climate systems. Second, different decarbonization strategies to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 were obtained, considering technology availability and high renewable energy potential. Results indicate that carbon neutrality is feasible when enforcing different combinations of the current Chilean mitigation strategies, even delaying coal phase-out by five years and failure of developing advanced solar technologies. If some policies are not fully implemented, such as delaying coal phase-out by five years or failure of developing advanced solar technologies, carbon neutrality can be achieved by incurring in a higher capital cost in the power sector. Moreover, decarbonization is mainly driven by high electrification levels in the final demand sector, reaching 53.7%–62.9% of the total consumption. However, such levels of electrification are reduced, particularly in the transport sector, when Chile relies on negative emissions from the land use and forestry sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implementing nationally determined contributions is more challenging for developing countries given potential economic consequences. Chile, a developing economy, is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. To do so, Chile announced multiple mitigation strategies such as phasing out coal by 2040, peaking emissions by 2025, and developing renewable energies. Fortunately, Chile holds a prominent renewable potential, standing out for solar, but it also has a significant challenge decarbonizing an economy that heavily relies on fossil fuels. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the first country-level disaggregated version of GCAM Latin America (GCAM-LA) was developed, where all South American countries are modeled as an independent energy-economy region. This model includes Chile as a separated region and incorporates interactions among the energy, water, agriculture and land use, economy, and climate systems. Second, different decarbonization strategies to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 were obtained, considering technology availability and high renewable energy potential. Results indicate that carbon neutrality is feasible when enforcing different combinations of the current Chilean mitigation strategies, even delaying coal phase-out by five years and failure of developing advanced solar technologies. If some policies are not fully implemented, such as delaying coal phase-out by five years or failure of developing advanced solar technologies, carbon neutrality can be achieved by incurring in a higher capital cost in the power sector. Moreover, decarbonization is mainly driven by high electrification levels in the final demand sector, reaching 53.7%–62.9% of the total consumption. However, such levels of electrification are reduced, particularly in the transport sector, when Chile relies on negative emissions from the land use and forestry sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an agent-based model of the technological adoption of solar panels, including potential adopters' characteristics and their interactions. This study analyzes the theoretical impact of seven social influence strategies on the adoption of solar panels by householders within a solar neighborhood in the Providencia district, Chile. In this case study, established adopters account for 0.9% of the population, opinion leaders for 1.3%, and individuals in the network for 97.8%. Considering the population's high-level ambition and tolerance of uncertainty, we found that householders are mainly characterized as optimizers (89.7%), followed by inquirers (7.6%), repeaters (2.3%), and imitators (0.3%) agents. Our agent-based simulation model evaluated the social influence strategies based on economic, environmental, and social benefits. The results show that social influence strategies lead to a 19.27% increase, on average, in the total number of adopters concerning the base case. Then, we performed a multi-objective analysis to select the best adoption strategy. These results show that selecting the most connected agents in the network is a robust strategy the decision-makers have environmental or financial concerns. However, if the decision-makers' primary interest is maximizing the diffusion scope of solar panel neighborhoods, random agent selection is the most advisable strategy, given its ease of implementation. [Display omitted] • Consumat approach and Campbell's paradigm were integrated into a simulation model. • The results from seven social influence strategies are compared. • Selective seeding and random seeding are found to be the most effective strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chile is currently engaged in an energy transition process to meet ambitious greenhouse gas reductions and improved air quality indices. In this paper, we apply a long-term energy planning model, with the objective of finding the set of technologies that meet strong reductions of CO 2 emissions and of local P M 2. 5 concentrations. For this purpose, we use the existing ETEM-Chile (Energy-Technology-Environment-Model) model which considers a simplified version of the Chilean electricity sector that we extend to the residential and commercial sectors and to local concentration considerations. We propose an original approach to integrate in the same framework local and global emission constraints. Results show that to meet the goal of zero emissions by 2050, electrification of end-use demands increases up to 49.2% with a strong growth of the CO 2 marginal cost. It should be noted that this electrification rate is much lower than government projections and those usually found in the literature, in certain geographic areas in southern Chile with a wide availability of firewood for residential heating. Regarding local P M 2. 5 concentrations, our analysis shows that even without a specific emission reduction target, acceptable P M 2. 5 concentrations are achieved by 2045, due to first the emergence of more efficient, cleaner and cost-effective end-use technologies, in particular, residential firewood heaters, and second the use of drier and therefore less contaminating firewood. Achieving acceptable air quality as early as 2030 is also possible but comes with a high marginal cost of P M 2. 5 concentration. Our results illustrate the need for implementing effective public policies to (i) regulate the firewood heating market to increase its production and improve its environmental quality and (ii) incentivize the installation of efficient firewood heaters in the residential sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the field of water management, desalination industry has faced various economic and environmental challenges. Renewable energies and the incorporation of operational strategies such as demand-side management have been able to contribute with the aim of facing them. Nonetheless, it is necessary to continue studying demand-side management for water supply systems emphasising it as a strategic tool to make operational decisions. This article presents a methodology based on a novel Mixed-Integer Linear Programming model in order to program the operation of a seawater reverse osmosis desalination plant with one pumping station for a desertic remote agricultural zone, in accordance with the principles of demand-side management. A photovoltaic solar plant connected to the grid is considered as a renewable energy source. The mathematical model aims to establish the optimal hourly operating load of the system that minimises the daily margin of purchased electricity costs minus sales income of generated electricity. The case study where the methodology is tested is an agricultural area in Northern Chile. The proposed methodology in this paper establishes the basis for future research and industrial applications, considering that it can be generalised to other geographical situations, as well as being modifiable to be adapted for more complex water supply systems and/or other renewable energy sources. • A novel optimisation model was developed to manage a water supply system operation. • The developed optimisation model is based on demand-side management principles. • Demand-side management enables more efficient use of renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question about how to choose the best recycling policy is particularly relevant in developing countries. On the one hand, many of these countries have no national waste management strategies, with recycling programs emerging as an independent initiative financed by municipalities, mostly in urban areas. On the other hand, the municipal budget tends to be linked to the wealth of their inhabitants. Consequently, an efficient municipal resources allocation policy to support recycling programs is especially crucial for the most vulnerable population, often located in rural areas. In this paper, we address the problem of optimal allocation of resources for the adoption of a recycling program by municipalities located in both urban and rural areas of a developing country, determining the best combination between two options: increasing and redistributing existing resources. Our research methods involve comprehensive data collection and mathematical modelling, adopting a logistic regression model proposed in the literature, formulating a non-linear optimisation model, and implementing a resolution method. In addition, recycling policies with equivalent results are described and analysed, discussing their political feasibility and economic efficiency. To illustrate our proposal, the case of Chilean municipalities is considered. Chile is a country from the Global South that belongs to the OECD and can be therefore compared to other documented cases. Although no official national data is available, we were able to collect figures by requesting information from every municipality in the country. The obtained results show an important lack of resources at the national level in MSWM, especially affecting rural areas. In this context, equivalent recycling policies with combined options could better favour rural municipalities. However, the average probability for the adoption of a recycling program by municipalities, although shows slight increases, is not enough for a substantial change towards a more sustainable waste management model. Our results illustrate the gap between urban and rural municipalities, the need to inject important funds into the system as a whole, and open the question of whether a more direct 'command and control' policy is required instead of just trusting the individual initiative of each municipality, even if more resources are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]