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A good risk warning model is an effective way to guarantee the stable operation of the carbon market and exert its emission reduction function. This paper takes the China's pilot carbon market as the research object and measures the carbon market risk by ARMA-GARCH-VaR. Then, influential factors are selected as non-market characteristics from the perspective of causality and incorporated into the risk warning model, and SMOTE and SMOTEENN are introduced to deal with the unbalanced samples. Results show that (1) The risk fluctuations of Beijing and Shenzhen carbon market are large, and the risk fluctuations of Guangdong carbon market are relatively smooth in the early period and larger in the recent period. (2) Air quality, average daily temperature, CSI 300, power coal, natural gas, European carbon market, exchange rate, and Baidu index are all important factors in the risk volatility of carbon market. (3) The Classification Decision Tree (CDT) has the best performance. CDT has the best performance in Guangdong carbon market, SMOTE-CDT has the best performance in Hubei carbon market, and SMOTEENN-CDT has the best performance in Shanghai carbon market, in which SMOTEENN-CDT has a 76% Recall. The non-equilibrium treatment improves the overall Recall, and the risk warning model after non-equilibrium treatment can avoid missing important risk points. This paper can provide a certain degree of reference for the improvement of carbon trading market and risk management. [Display omitted] • A carbon market warning model is constructed. • The average VaR of the carbon trading markets in Shenzhen and Beijing is larger. • CDT performs better in market risk warning. • The model improves 34.8% in the avoidance of risk compared with other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River Major Conservation (YRMC) Action has been strategically crafted to catalyze industrial evolution within the Yangtze River basin, aligning with China's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, particularly from the corporate perspective. Despite its significance, the potential impact of this initiative on corporate environmental performance (CEP) remains understudied. To address this gap, we utilize panel data from Chinese firms listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares (2012–2020) and employ the difference-in-differences (DID) method to investigate the causal relationship between the YRMC Action and the CEP. The main findings are threefold: (i) Firms located within a 100 km radius of the Yangtze River's main stream have exhibited an average increase of 0.1497 units in CEP due to the implementation of the YRMC Action, which are consistently validated across robustness tests; (ii) Mechanisms driving this enhancement include incentivizing firms to undertake green technological R&D programs, securing governmental green R&D subsidies, and credit incentives; and (iii) Heterogeneity analyses show that firms closer to the main stream of the Yangtze River, particularly those upstream and led by senior executives with awareness of green initiatives, have contributed to more pronounced improvements in CEP. This paper highlights policy implications for optimizing the incentive effects of the YRMC Action and strengthening the environmental regulatory governance to ensure enduring enhancements in CEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]