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To guide the adjustment of the electricity policies of the 13th Five-year Plan and the present market-oriented reforms, this paper performs a scenario analysis of the CO 2 emissions from China's electric power industry. By using a logarithmic linear equation to explain the relationship between CO 2 emissions and their influence factors, a hybrid model to forecast the “natural” development of the explanatory variables, and emission-relative data from 2001 to 2013 to estimate the equation parameters, five scenarios are designed, and the CO 2 emissions of each scenario are forecasted for the period of 2016–2030. On the basis of the modeling results, the sensitivity and contribution of each variable are also measured. Empirical analysis draws the following conclusions. (1) The electric power industry of China cannot easily reach its CO 2 emission peak before 2030. This will impose considerable pressure on the Chinese government to realize its emission mitigation target. (2) Compared with the non-fossil energy share in electricity generation, the CO 2 emissions from China's electric power industry are more sensitive to the changes in total electricity consumption and thermal power generation efficiency. (3) The increase in total electricity consumption is the single most important contributor to CO 2 emission growth from the electric power industry of China. (4) To mitigate future CO 2 emissions from the electric power industry, the Chinese government should optimize the industrial export structure and enhance its awareness of the increase in household electricity consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, China is the largest carbon emitter with large increased annual carbon dioxide emissions and thus faces growing pressure to control carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The Chinese government announced the targets of reducing carbon intensity by 2020 and peaking absolute carbon dioxide emissions around 2030. Against such background, this paper adopts an approach, which combines production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) and index decomposition analysis (IDA). In the approach, this study adds two important pre-defined factors, i.e. GDP technical efficiency and GDP technology change. Furthermore, this study provides detailed information regarding the potential forces driving carbon dioxide emissions across provinces in China. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, economic activity is the dominant contributor to substantial increases in carbon dioxide emissions. GDP technology change and potential energy intensity change have considerable effects on carbon dioxide emissions in most provinces. Secondly, there are mixed results at provincial level, including several driving factors and the potential of carbon intensity improvements. In this regard, detailed information about provincial variations is quite important for policy makers in provincial governments. Finally, there are 9 provinces with large potential of carbon intensity improvements. Looking ahead, the local governments should adopt effective measures to promote “catching up”. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change which is induced from energy consumption and CO 2 emissions has got people's attention; hence, many strategies and ways are being adopted to mitigate CO 2 emissions. Energy substitution is crucial to the promotion of energy conservation and CO 2 emissions reduction. The purpose of this paper is to estimate both inter-factor and inter-fuel substitution in China's iron & steel industry during the period 1985–2011. Empirical results show several conclusions for China's iron & steel industry: (1) own-price elasticity of energy is negative, so increase in energy price will reduce energy input; (2) energy and capital, and energy and labor are substitutes, and the substitution in energy/capital is relatively stronger; (3) though coal, oil and electricity are also substitutes, the substitution effect is not so obvious because of pricing distortions in China. The driving forces of energy efficiency change are further discussed and the results show that technology progress is the key factor determining energy intensity. Therefore, market-oriented reforms in terms of energy prices, improvement in energy substitution (including inter-factor and inter-fuel substation) and promotion of energy saving technologies are important means for ensuring future energy conservation and CO 2 emissions reduction practices in China's iron & steel sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth of vehicle ownership in China has brought severe energy and environmental challenges. By referring to a wide range of existing studies and policy documents, this paper reviews the rationality, pathway choice, policy initiatives, barriers and opportunities of developing coal-derived alternative fuels in China, including methanol, Dimethyl Ether (DME) and Coal-to-Liquid (CTL). The review suggests that (a) the production of coal-derived alternative fuels faces the constraints of coal resource, water consumption and CO 2 emissions. China should develop coal-derived alternative fuels with full considerations of these constraints. (b) Coal can be utilized as vehicle fuel through multiple pathways, each pathway with significant trade-off among its energy, environmental and economical attributes. Some critical issues, such as the toxicity of methanol use, the life cycle Greenhouse Gas emissions from different pathways, are still not fully justified. Demonstration plays an essential role in justifying these issues and identifying the optimal technology pathway. (c) The demonstration of methanol use as vehicle fuel faces several major barriers. To further promote the demonstration progress, an essential step is to adjust the excise tax rate for fuel methanol. Besides, the government should consider to establish a number of fuel methanol closed-operation regions in the coal-rich provinces. (d) Driven by the fluctuations in oil prices and policy incentives, the established and planned CTL capacities have been growing very fast. To protect CTL plants from the impacts of oil price fluctuations or carbon tax, the government can consider to provide appropriate subsidies to CTL plants when necessary. (e) The DME fuel and vehicle technologies are more likely to be developed as technology reserves rather than mainstream technologies. Regional demonstration projects should be maintained to improve infrastructure and vehicle technology maturity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, China is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. Moreover, the manufacturing industry is the largest contributor to China's CO 2 emissions. Therefore, investigating the main driving forces of CO 2 emissions in the manufacturing industry has great practical significance. Using panel data from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the driving forces of the industry's CO 2 emissions at the regional level. The results show that economic growth dictates the industry's CO 2 emissions, and its impact varies across regions. The influence of industrialization on CO 2 emission in the central region is stronger than in the eastern and western regions due to differences in industrial structure and the building industry. The impact of urbanization declines continuously from the western region to the central and eastern regions because of differences in human capital accumulation and private car ownership. Energy structure also produces a different effect in the three regions on account of differences in coal consumption. Furthermore, the role of energy efficiency in reducing CO 2 emissions in the three regions is markedly different owing to big differences in R&D funding and R&D personnel investments. Considering the significant regional differences, we propose policy recommendations to mitigate CO 2 emissions in the manufacturing industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Due to increasing energy scarcity and pressures from climate change, Chinese iron & steel (IS) companies have struggled to implement practices to reduce their energy consumption and CO2 emissions. However, it is not clear whether these practices can improve the environmental or economic performance of these companies. The determinants that drive or hinder the implementation of these practices are also not known. Therefore, this paper describes an empirical analysis of a total of 85 questionnaires of various IS companies across China. A regression analysis was applied in this paper to verify the relationship among CO2 reduction practices, determinants and performance as reported by the IS companies. The results show that although some CO2 reduction practices can result in significant environmental performance, their impacts on the improvement of economic performance are less clear. The paper discusses some implications regarding strategies for prompting CO2 reduction practices that have been considered during the discussion about the determinants that impact on the practices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The coal-fired power sector is the main source of CO 2 emissions in China. This paper proposes a carbon abatement cost estimate model based on computing the emissions gap between the Chinese national energy consumption standards of units (NECS) and the units' coal consumption for per unit electricity supply (CCES). By applying the proposed model, the abatement costs of four coal-fired power generation units (600 MW USC, 1000 MW USC, 265 MW IGCC, 600 MW SC CFB) with or without Carbon capture and storage (CCS) are estimated in six combined scenarios. The results show that (1) the units' total cost would increase more than one time after conducting CCS while the unit cost of carbon emissions abatement would decrease more than 64%; (2) the 1000 MW USC unit with CCS has the largest carbon reduction potential and the lowest unit abatement cost among all units in all scenarios; (3) 265 MW IGCC unit would have no carbon reduction potential after 25 service years, and its service years may be shortened; and (4) the 256 MW IGCC and 600 MW SC CFB is the most sensitive to the average annual decline rate of NECS but the four units of installed CCS are not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization results in a considerable economic disparity between urban and rural areas in developing countries, which has had a consequent significant impact on CO 2 emissions. To accommodate this directly, this paper presents a modified version of the Kaya Identity formula, U-Kaya, that includes a direct urbanization factor to determine the relationship between energy consumption intensity, population growth, urbanization rates, urban and rural GDP per capita and the volume of carbon emissions, for application in the dynamic forecasting of carbon emissions by Monte Carlo simulation. The method is demonstrated in forecasting China's likely carbon emissions in 2020 by three different modes of urbanization policy: the government-dominant mode, market-dominant mode and a hybrid government market-dominant mode. The results indicate that a higher urbanization rate, energy carbon emission coefficient and energy intensity will lead to increased carbon emissions. Finally, three policy implications are identified, comprising the narrowing of the economic gap between urban and rural areas, adjustments to the energy structure and technical innovation, which will provide a valuable reference for developing countries in their efforts to reduce carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the social context of mitigating climate change and achieving carbon neutrality, the improvement of carbon emissions efficiency and the protection of biological carbon sequestration have emerged as hot topics recently due to their prospects in carbon dioxide emissions reductions. A large volume of studies has identified the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions efficiency. The contributions of our study lied in constructing a system to measure net carbon sink efficiency. Secondly, this study discussed the carbon neutrality performance of Chinese cities from three different aspects of carbon dioxide emissions, carbon sequestration of vegetation and net carbon sink efficiency. Thirdly, this paper identified the influencing factors of net carbon sink efficiency, and examined the direct and indirect effect of different factors. For this purpose, we evaluated the net carbon sink efficiency of 285 cities in China from 2012 to 2017 using a slacks-based measure model, and explored its spatial distribution characteristics, then employed a spatial Durbin model to explore the influencing factors of net carbon sink efficiency. Our main findings indicate that the net carbon sink efficiency steadily increased during the study period, whereas their spatial characteristics were "high at both ends and low in the middle" from the south to the north. There is a significant spatial autocorrelation in the net carbon sink efficiency of Chinese cities. Several kinds of measures can be applied to promote net carbon sink efficiency, such as increasing the proportion of tertiary industry, promoting economic growth, attracting foreign direct investment, increasing road area, promoting technological progress and strengthening environmental regulation. However, the increase of urban population may decrease efficiency. Nevertheless, an obvious spatial spillover effect exists in the net carbon sink efficiency of Chinese cities. The results can provide policy recommendations for the government to formulate differentiated carbon neutralization policies. [Display omitted] • The carbon sequestration is considered to calculate net carbon sink efficiency (NCSE). • The NCSE is used to discuss the carbon neutral performance of Chinese cities. • Chinese NCSE steadily increased and showed significant spatial autocorrelation. • Spatial Durbin model was adopted to study the influencing factors of NCSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2015 Paris climate change negotiations represents the most ambitious worldwide effort to date to combat climate change. As the largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, China pledges 60–65% cut in carbon intensity below 2005 levels by 2030. To accelerate China's climate efforts, China has also committed to cap its primary energy use at 4.8 billion tons of coal equivalent in 2020. This paper proposes an equitable and efficient scheme to disaggregate this national goal among provinces. A three-step disaggregation procedure is proposed which takes into account the initial allocation, national redistribution and inter-provincial adjustment. First, this study allocates the incremental energy quota, taking 2010 as the base year. Second, part of the energy quota is set aside by the central government for redistribution purposes, while an incremental energy quota index comprising equity and efficiency criteria is used for initial allocation among provinces. Finally, historical efforts and inter-provincial energy flows are considered for inter-provincial adjustment. This disaggregation scheme is flexible and can be easily extended to allocation and management of other resource and environmental targets. The empirical findings can assist decision-makers in identifying which provinces are likely to over-consume the energy quota relative to the proposed allocation and which provinces are likely to perform better in energy conservation. Moreover, the results show that the energy cap set for 2020 is unachievable without further action. Market-based instruments, such as an energy allowance trading market, are strongly recommended to achieve the energy use target in an equitable and cost-effective manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the surge in China's CO 2 emissions has caused serious environmental problem. According to the CO 2 reduction commitment in 12th Five-Year Plan, this paper classifies total CO 2 emissions in accordance with industry and analyses CO 2 emissions changing trend of residential consumption and the three major industries which include the primary, secondary and tertiary industry. Cointegration and Granger causality test are proposed to select different influencing factors of three major industries and residential consumption CO 2 emissions respectively as well as check the influencing factors with different leading lengths. Least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is applied to predict different types of carbon dioxide emissions. Case studies reveal that classification and prediction of CO 2 emissions can highly improve forecast accuracy. The effectiveness of LSSVM has been proved by the final simulation which shows that the proposed method outperforms logistic model, back propagation artificial neural network (BPNN) and GM (1, 1) model in the CO 2 emissions forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper specifies a nonlinear threshold cointegration to analyze the nonlinear relationship between carbon intensity and economic growth in China. The tests and estimated results clearly confirm that fast-paced economic growth—that is the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than 9.053%—impede the reduction of carbon intensity because it weakens the negative effects of tertiary industry development and energy efficiency on carbon intensity while it also increases the positive effect of unclean energy mix on carbon intensity. In order to find a moderate range of economic growth rate that is both beneficial for industrial structuring and energy mix transformation, and at the same time, facilitate reduction in carbon intensity, Monte Carlo simulations are employed. The results show when the growth rate of GDP is between 7% and 8.4%, it can promote “structural bonus” of industrial structure and energy consumption structure on carbon intensity, and carbon intensity in 2020 would decline by about 40.60% compared to 2005 level. These conclusions mean it is necessary for China to carefully set its economic growth target through transformation and optimization of its economic structure and energy mix in order to continuously reduce carbon intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a subsystem input–output model to analyse the patterns behind the evolution of CO 2 emissions in energy-intensive industries. Two emissions accounting principles (the production accounting principle and the consumption accounting principle) are applied. The embodied CO 2 emissions are divided into the production-based CO 2 emissions associated with three components (internal component (IC), external component (EC) and demand level component (DLC)) in addition to the CO 2 emissions identified by the indirect component (INC) from a consumption perspective. A structural decomposition analysis is further conducted to decompose the emissions changes into 3 effects, which are the emissions intensity effect (ET), the technological effect (TT) and the demand effect (DT). The results show that the external component is primarily responsible for increased CO 2 emissions and the demand effect is the key factor in the decrease of CO 2 emissions. Moreover, sectors with a positive difference between production-based and consumption-based emissions are more sensitive than the others to the technological changes. Thus, different measures should be adopted by considering sectorial realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pollution emissions have become a matter of public concern in recent years. However, the vast majority of existing researches on PM 2.5 pollution are from the natural science perspective, and few studies have been conducted from an economic point of view. This paper adopts provincial panel data from 2001 to 2012 and panel data models to analyze the key driving forces of PM 2.5 emissions at the regional level in China. The results show that economic growth is a decisive factor of PM 2.5 emissions. The impacts of urbanization on PM 2.5 emissions vary across regions and decrease continuously from the central region to the western and eastern regions. The effects of private cars and coal consumption on PM 2.5 emissions in the eastern region are greater than that in the central and western regions because of significant differences in R&D investment, private car ownership and total coal consumption. Energy efficiency improvement has greater potential to mitigate PM 2.5 emissions in the central and western regions than that in the eastern region due to its low level of technology. Hence, in order to effectively reduce emissions, the Chinese government should consider all these factors as well as regional heterogeneity in developing appropriate mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a joint U.S.–China statement on climate change , the Chinese government declared to peak CO 2 emissions around 2030. This demonstrates the government's determination to deal with carbon emission and climate change. Although the food industry is not a carbon emission-intensive industry, its large scale makes the emission reduction in the industry very important. Based on the input–output structural decomposition method, this paper calculates the CO 2 emissions of China's food industry from 1991 to 2012, and decomposes the change in CO 2 emissions of the industry during 1992–1997, 1997–2002, 2002–2007 and 2007–2010 into four main effects: emission factor, energy structure, energy intensity, and total output (including four sub-effects: intermediate use, domestic final demand, import substitution and export extension). The results show that changes in CO 2 emissions in the food industry mainly depends on total output effect and energy intensity effect. Energy intensity effect is the most important factor reducing CO 2 emissions, as it reduced cumulative 213 million tons (Mt) CO 2 emissions of the industry. Among total output effect, the effects of intermediate use and domestic final demand are the two biggest contributors to carbon emissions. Finally, we provide some policy advices for constraining and reducing CO 2 emissions of China's food industry. The advices include increasing R&D investment and the substitution of energy with other input factors to decrease energy intensity, increasing the added value of the food industry, optimizing the energy structure with more clean and low-carbon energy, and maintaining the prices of raw materials of the food industry (i.e. agricultural products) with taxes or subsidies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the features of bauxite resources and fuels utilized in China's primary aluminum industry, which was not adequately discussed in previous studies with the existing general CO 2 assessment approach. Targeted at this matter, this article develops a bottom-up calculation and scenario analysis model to estimate CO 2 emissions and reduction potentials for China's primary aluminum industry. In this model, the complex structures of feedstock, technology and electric power are completely considered. CO 2 emissions from alumina and aluminum production in the selected year are calculated using this model, and emissions associated with five distinct refining technologies and smelters in the six regional power grids are examined in detail. Results show that CO 2 emissions of primary aluminum production in China could decrease at various extents through implementing alternative countermeasures for ore quality changes and policies adjustment in the future. It's expected that wide adoption of SBSP and IBP as well as further elimination of LSSP and SPCP have a reduction potential of 6%, which is almost equivalent to the cutting effect of SBP domination. For smelting stage, the maximum reduction potential of 20% is projected for 2020, as the current international best available value of power consumption is achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has been viewed as an emission abatement option with great potential in China as coal has dominated China's energy consumption. China has already started to pay attention to CCS, as well as to the proposed the concept of ‘CCUS’ (which adds CO 2 Utilization into the chain of capture, transportation and storage). However, CCS is still in the early stages of its technological development, and the high cost, with several internal and external uncertainties make the role that CCS can play in China's future emission reduction unclear. From the perspective of general equilibrium analysis, this paper introduces CCS into a regional energy–economy–environment integrated assessment model, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of CCS's potential for future development and contribution to emission abatement in China. At climate policy level, the potential contribution of CCS in emission abatement has been evaluated against different future emission constraint scenarios in China. At technological level, the effects of endogenous learning and policy incentives on CCS have been investigated, and the substitution capacities of CCS and Non-hydro renewables to fossil energy have been discussed, as well as their technology penetration rates. Furthermore, the impact of CO 2 utilization on the development of CCS has also been discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presented a coupled decomposition analysis of CO 2 emissions due to energy consumption in China. The logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) approach was adopted to decompose the driving factors of CO 2 emissions in eight sub-periods over 1995 to 2011. Decomposition and heterogeneity analyses of CO 2 emission over multiple spatial series were also conducted for the 29 provinces in China. Twelve driving factors in view of four categories of effects were decomposed. The results indicated that (a) driving directions of the factors were highly consistent. All the factors exhibited consistently positive and negative effects both spatially and temporally. Among these factors, the average labor productivity ( ALP ) was the dominant positive driving factor and energy intensity of production sector ( EIP ) was the dominant negative driving factor, (b) over multiple temporal scales, China experienced the largest energy-related CO 2 emission growth in the sub-periods during 2001–2003 and 2003 to 2005. Additionally, the change in the CO 2 emissions from 1997 to 1999 was negative, unlike the other 7 sub-periods, and (c) over multiple spatial scales, contribution values of the factors in different provinces varied significantly, where in general the positive driving effects outweighed the negative inhibiting effects. In total, CO 2 emissions in eastern provinces increased to the largest degrees, followed by central and western ones. It is suggested that China should coordinate and balance the relationships between economic development and CO 2 emission reduction, further decrease energy intensity of many production sectors, gradually adjust the economic and energy structures, and formulate CO 2 emission reduction policies to accommodate regional disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the combustion of fossil fuel became the largest contributing factor of greenhouse gas emissions in China, the growth of energy consumption caused by urbanization has led to significant increase in carbon emissions. Applying both the carbon-emissions-coefficient and the sector-energy-consumption method, we predicted the energy consumption and carbon emissions, explored the characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in different urbanization stages, and analyzed the energy crisis in Shandong which is a typical province in China. The results indicate that in 2015 and 2020, the total primary energy consumption will be 1.57 times and 1.85 times higher than that of in 2009, and the carbon emissions are estimated to be 1.48 times and 1.67 times respectively. The urbanization has distinct positive effects on energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the influence is more obvious in the intermediate-stage than in the early-stage. From a policy perspective, this paper could provide valuable information for planners and decision makers to formulate feasible and practical polices with a view to optimize energy structure and mitigate carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is experiencing a stage of rapid urban development. The energy consumption and related carbon dioxide emissions of households continue to increase. This paper calculates direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households based on the input–output method in China from 1996 to 2012. The results reveal that there were more total carbon dioxide emissions from urban households than from rural households, far more indirect emissions from urban households than from rural households, slightly more direct emissions from urban households than from rural households, and differences in direct carbon dioxide emissions from various fuels and in indirect emissions from various sectors between urban and rural households. To examine the causal relationship between urbanization and the carbon dioxide emissions of households, cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied. A unidirectional causal relation was found running from urbanization to both direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions, and the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households would increase 2.9% and 1.1%, respectively, for every increase of one percent in urbanization. We discuss the reasons of why the development of urbanization will lead to more household direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions, and suggest certain policy implications for urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions based on the results of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China must tackle CO 2 emission from its power sector which contributes to 40% (11.8 Gt in 2019) of its total CO 2 emission. Previous studies have shown that China has enough subsurface CO 2 storage capacity (3,145 Gt) to store 200–300 years of CO 2 emission nationwide or 600–700 years of CO 2 emission from the power sector. This paper evaluates the economic benefits of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to decarbonize China's coal-fired power plants and conducts a techno-economic analysis of four scenarios to achieve carbon neutrality in China's power sector by 2050. A model of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for coal-fired power plants equipped with CCS (CP-CCS) is used for comparing the economic competitiveness of CP-CCS with those of nuclear (NP), hydro (HP), wind (WP) and solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants. Results show that the LCOE of CP-CCS with a CO 2 transportation distance of 100 km or less and coal price below 455 CNY/t (70.54 USD/t with the exchange rate set at 1 USD = 6.45 CNY) is less than those of NP, WP and solar PV especially for a high discount rate. The cost of coal and CO 2 transportation are the two greatest contributors to the LCOE of CP-CCS. In addition, LCOE is sensitive to operation time of the CP-CCS. Retrofitting an existing coal-fired power plant with CCS reduces the LCOE by 10–18% compared to a newly built CP-CCS. Furthermore, a scenario of gradual increase (average annual growth rate of 0.93%) in electricity generation by CP-CCS has a lower total cost than one where coal-fired power plants are aggressively replaced by wind and solar PV power plants. This is especially true if the coal price is low and CO 2 transportation distance is short. The result is savings of trillions of CNY in costs for the power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's economic growth has been progressively moving towards reducing carbon intensity. In parallel, Japan has long been regarded as the pioneer of energy efficiency worldwide. Why have these two economic giants had such different experiences of carbon intensity in the past decades? A closer examination in both countries may hold vital clues, which are still very unclear. This paper compares the patterns of carbon intensity between China and Japan, in which we propose a bilateral-country decomposition framework by combining production-theoretical decomposition analysis and index decomposition analysis. The decomposition highlights the effects of emission factor, energy structure, sectoral structure, substitution among labor-energy and capital-energy, and technological progress. The results show that the energy structure, sectoral structure, and capital-energy substitution are the main drivers behind that China is much higher carbon intensity than Japan, accounting for 26%, 25%, and 38%, respectively. Yet, these effects also narrowed the carbon intensity gap between China and Japan over the years. Furthermore, the labor-energy substitution effect has generally decreased the carbon intensity gap. The technological effect has a minor impact on the carbon intensity gap per year, while it plays a dominant role in enlarging the carbon intensity gap over time. • An improved approach is proposed to decompose driving forces of carbon intensity. • The approach is applied to carbon intensity gap between China and Japan. • Potential energy intensity of each sector is uncovered by input substitution. • Enabling policymakers in developing countries to reduce carbon intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transport is energy-intensive, and inevitably raises serious environmental concerns. This paper characterizes the Chinese transport service sector, which moves freight and passengers, using national official statistical data. A Streamlined life cycle assessment method is employed to address: (1) What proportions of carbon emissions generated at national level are due to road, air, water, rail and pipeline transport services and what key factors impact carbon emissions? (2) How may the process to dynamically quantify the carbon emission impact of the transport service sector be streamlined? Specifically, activities related to transport services in China are formed including transport modes, freight volume and passenger turnover volume, travel distance, and other aspects related to life cycle. The emissions factors corresponding to transport modes are derived from commercial databases (China-specific case studies). The results show that carbon emissions from the transport service sector has rapidly grown over the past few decades, closely corresponding with increases in annual turnover. The total impact in 2012 was estimated to be 3184 million tons. The impact caused by moving freight is as much as 8 times greater than passengers'. Road sector emissions dominate transport emissions with light duty trucks accounting for more than 70% of the impact. The potential carbon abatement strategy in China might be less than expected, if their carbon intensity maintains on this level. To summarize, the obtained results constitute a necessary base in order to accomplish an adequate dimensioning of emissions in the transport service sector. This study can be considered as an opportunity for further research and evaluate the available options for a sustainable transportation system planning in China. In addition, the method development is also important for future quantifications of carbon emissions by other sectors in China and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Being the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world, China also possesses enormous regional disparities in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. Significant carbon emission flows from developed regions to undeveloped regions through inter-regional trade have been observed in China. In order to examine the determining factors of such virtual carbon flows, an index decomposition analysis was conducted to investigate emissions embodied in trades among eight regions, which were grouped with recourse to the latest available provincial I/O tables in China. This paper finds that trade balance and energy intensity are two most salient factors with regard to interregional carbon flows. In the largest outsourcing region, the northwest region of China, the two factors account for 35.6–59.1% of the total carbon surplus, respectively. Thus, China is experiencing more ‘efficiency losses’ than ‘efficiency gains’ resulting from carbon transfers. In order to switch to a future “efficiency gain” situation, policies and supports for technology innovation in and transfer to inland regions, as well as enhanced technology standards for expanded carbon intensive productions in less developed regions are suggested to complement the current policy of carbon intensity target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing energy and material consumption associated with global economic growth has resulted in the need for more severe efforts at mitigating global climate change. The iron and steel industry consumes 8% of energy and emits 7% of total CO 2 globally. China's iron and steel industry contributes to 15% of that country's total CO 2 emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to explore the possibility of net zero emissions in the iron and steel industry in China to meet China's goal of carbon neutrality before 2060. In the study presented in this paper, the MESSAGEix–China iron and steel model was developed by integrating the process-based technology of the sector into the IIASA's MESSAGEix framework to explore zero CO 2 emission pathways and their associated impacts on resources, energy, and water in China's iron and steel industry up to 2100. We found that there are multiple pathways to achieving zero CO 2 emissions in the Chinese iron and steel industry by the end of the 21st century. More specifically, in all the pathways developed in this study, CO 2 emissions decreased significantly between 2030 and 2060 due to the rapid application of 100% scrap-based Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs) and hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron (DRI)-EAFs steel-making technologies. However, by 2060, there will still be 70–360 Mt of CO 2 emissions from China's iron and steel industry; consequently, carbon sink or negative emission technologies are required to offset this and achieve the country's carbon neutrality goal. Furthermore, technologies for achieving zero emissions differ widely in terms of their impacts on the consumption of materials and energy. Compared to the electric (ELE) scenarios, 25–40% of extra iron ore is consumed in the current and new national policy (NPS) scenarios and the DRI scenarios, but 25–220% of scrap is required. At the same time, 20–150% more energy will be saved in the ELE scenarios than in the NPS and DRI scenarios. Finally, we recommend that policy makers design a cross-cutting strategy to achieve zero CO 2 emissions and enhance efforts for material recycling and the provision of clean energy and water. • There are multiple pathways to achieving net zero emissions in China's iron and steel industry. • Steel outputs are essential for reducing CO 2 emissions and conserving materials, energy, and water. • Hydrogen-based DRI and 100% scrap-EAFs technologies are key to achieving zero emissions. • CO 2 mitigation measures have limited impacts on water consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a low-cost, low-carbon, and clean renewable energy, hydropower is crucial to carbon emissions reduction and climate change mitigation. Compared with non-steady and highly volatile renewable energy, flexible hydropower can help secure the reliable operation of the grid. However, development cost increase, resettlement and environmental issues have recently hindered China's hydropower development. This paper first reviews the history and current status of hydropower development in China, integrates the economy-energy-environment system, the water-energy-food nexus, and socio-hydrology theory to analyze the complex influence mechanism of hydropower development, and identifies driving factors of hydropower development through a cost-benefit analysis. Then, the quantitative system dynamics (SD) model of hydropower development is constructed based on the interdisciplinary qualitative analysis. Combining incentive policies and technological progress, four scenarios are set. The multi-scenario prediction results and sensitivity analysis results of the SD model indicate that incentive policies can enhance the attractiveness of hydropower investment and significantly promote long-term stable hydropower development, while technological progress can improve the efficiency and carbon emissions reduction benefits of hydropower. Based on the comparative analysis of these results, specific policy recommendations for promoting sustainable development of green hydropower in China are proposed in terms of four aspects: the hydropower development concept, cooperation mechanism, policy mechanism, and technological progress. Image 1 • The influence mechanism of hydropower development is analyzed systematically. • Analytical frame integrates water, energy, economy, energy, environment, society. • System dynamics model is constructed based on an interdisciplinary analysis. • Multi-scenario results indicate different impacts of policy and technology. • Policy recommendations for sustainable hydropower development are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tackling the issue of Greenhouse Effect requires global action and a combined international effort from both developed and developing nations. Allocation of the total emissions reduction target among various entities is an issue of both theoretical importance and practical significance. Based on efficiency analysis, this paper proposes a methodology to develop an iterative procedure that can realize the disaggregation of emissions allowance. We use China as a typical case to illustrate our methodology, and disaggregate China's national reduction target of carbon dioxide emissions into targets applicable at the provincial level. Our results indicate that economically well-developed entities exhibit smaller percentages in carbon reductions. In contrast, less-developed entities should lower their carbon emissions by significant amounts, since their economic growth rates do not align with the huge amounts of ecological consumption. By implementing the proposed allocation scheme, the cross-performance of all involved entities will achieve the best state. The proposed method is readily applicable to general scenarios including nations, industries and enterprises. The results could support decision makers in developing an equitable and easy-to-operate allocation scheme of emissions allowance among various entities. The findings from the case study can be generalized to a global level that economic development and emissions status quos affect the scales of emissions reduction. • A new method is developed to decide how to equitably allocate emissions allowance. • The method is applicable to general scenarios like nations, industries and firms. • The allocation plan makes all participants achieve the best cross-performance state. • Economic development and emissions status quos affect emissions-reducing scales. • Findings of the case study in China support the hypotheses and can be generalized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has established national CO 2 peak emission targets and launched a series of low-carbon pilot programs to tackle climate change. Research on regional peak CO 2 emission targets and the establishment of mitigation roadmaps based on local characteristics is fundamental for achieving the national goals. This study analyzed the peak CO 2 emission targets by applying the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) and long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) models to data from Yunnan province, China. This study also simulated and measured the effectiveness of the CO 2 abatement potential by decomposing the peak CO 2 emissions for 14 subscenarios. The results showed that peak emissions will reach 200 Mt CO 2 e in Yunnan over a prolonged period from 2024 to 2028, and differences in the social-economic stages will result in different peak emissions from various sectors. Our research also found notable differences between different mitigation effects. Promoting hydro power, saving energy in the steel manufacturing and chemical sectors, employing highly efficient combustion engines in vehicles, developing public transport, and conserving urban residential energy should be considered as short-term primary actions. Clean-energy vehicles and saving energy in public buildings should be considered in the long term. Therefore, this study can provide a suitable reference to policymakers and stakeholders for identifying the most effective policy measures and actions for different sectors in low-carbon pilot planning programs. Image 1 •The regional peak CO 2 emission targets and mitigation roadmaps are established in the paper.. •A synthesized model to evaluate peak CO 2 emission and establish long-term mitigation roadmap is developed. •The effectiveness of the CO 2 abatement potential is measured by decomposing the peak CO 2 emissions for 14 subscenarios. •The implementation of high effective mitigation actions must be given the highest priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]