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CO 2 emissions are one of the major contributors to global warming. The variety of emission sources and the nature of CO 2 hinders estimating its concentration in real time and therefore to adopt flexible policies that contribute to its control and, ultimately, to reduce its effects. Spain is not exempted from this challenge and CO 2 emissions are published only at the end of the year and as an aggregated value for the whole country, without recognising the existing differences between the regions (the so-called, Autonomous Communities). The recent COVID-19 pandemic is a clear example of the need of accurate and fast estimation methods so that policies can be tailored to the current status and not to a past one. This paper provides a method to estimate monthly emissions of CO 2 for each AACC in Spain based on data that are published monthly by the relevant administrations. The paper discusses the approximations needed in the development of the method, predicts the drop in emissions due to the reduced industrial activity during the pandemic in Spain and provides the estimation of future emissions under three recovery scenarios after the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 crisis has had a major impact on electricity markets, affecting power plant input and output prices. In this paper Spanish electricity and natural gas prices and international carbon prices are used to calculate the variable margin of natural gas combined cycles (NGCC), i.e. the Clean Spark Spread (CSS). The stochastic behavior of the CSS is modeled using an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process because of its properties. The expected first semester 2020 CSS results based on the fitted model with daily 2016-2019 data, taking the end of 2019 as a starting point, are compared with the actual figures for the same period. In the first half of 2020 electricity and natural gas prices are significantly lower than expected at the end of 2019, but carbon allowance prices have decreased less in percentage terms. The monthly CSS values in the first half of 2020 are significantly lower than expected for March-May 2020, with the April value being -€4.15/WWh lower figure than the €7.16/MWh expected. This work calculates distributions of daily and monthly CSS values. • The Covid-19 crisis is having a strong effect on energy wholesale markets. • The Clean Spark Spread (CSS) is modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. • Daily and monthly price distributions of expected CSS values are calculated. • The CSS values are lower than expected for March–May 2020. • In April 2020 the mean of actual CSS prices was -€4.15 €/MWh compared to an expected value of €7.16/MWh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]