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As major strategic development areas in China, the provinces around the Yangtze River are facing the pressure of large aggregate CO 2 emissions and high per capita CO 2 emissions. The study on the pathway of reducing CO 2 emissions and increasing carbon sequestration will help China better clarify the ways realize the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible. In this paper, the extended STIRPAT model and OLS regression were used to establish a prediction model to estimate the CO 2 emissions during 2010–2060 under different scenarios. Meanwhile, the InVEST model was used to estimate the carbon sequestration, and the comparison with the CO 2 emissions was analyzed. The results show that Qinghai and Yunnan have achieved the goal of carbon neutrality in 2010. Under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario and the baseline scenario, all provinces within the study area are anticipated to attain their emissions peak by 2030 or earlier, and the CO 2 emissions peak value of the whole study area is 3111 Mt and 3199 Mt, respectively. While under the high emissions scenario, only Chongqing and Qinghai will reach the emissions peak in 2030, and the whole study area will reach the emissions peak in 2040, with peak value of 3470 Mt. Under the three scenarios, the whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Only Sichuan and Hubei can achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 and 2060 under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario. All provinces and municipalities in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are facing huge pressure of emissions reduction. The research reveals that the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality should be achieved by developing clean energy, transforming industrial structure, increasing carbon sequestration and improving carbon emissions trading system. [Display omitted] • The CO 2 emissions showed a pattern of increase during 2010–2020. • The whole study area will achieve carbon peak by 2040 or earlier. • The whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. • The realization pathway of carbon peak and neutrality was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because transport in the port hinterlands heavily depends on roads with negative externalities, much social interest has been in modal shifts (MSs) to rail and shipping with lower environmental impact. Currently, leading industry sectors to ambitiously embrace technological innovations to decarbonize—consequently, in line with these changes, the significance of MSs should change; however, no previous studies have comprehensively presented the overall CO 2 emissions and transport mode shares for future regional cargo transport. This paper presents a scenario analysis of CO 2 emission reductions in the Japanese domestic hinterland of international maritime container transport based on future scenarios of technological innovation and change in shipper behavior. The simulation results using the global logistics intermodal network simulation model showed that up to 87% CO 2 reduction is possible, and the primary driver for this is technological innovation. Moreover, the significance of MSs fluctuates depending on the advancement of technological innovation, suggesting that MSs hold a degree of import as a decarbonization measure during the transitional phase toward carbon neutrality (CN) as technological innovation advances. The results of this study, which fluctuated considerably by scenario and timing, have policy implications with respect to the path to be followed toward CN, including whether to promote MSs. • Scenario analysis of CO 2 emission reductions in Japanese maritime transportation. • Up to 87% CO 2 reduction possible using technological innovation. • Significance of modal shifts fluctuated with the degree of technological innovation. • Policy implications suggesting that the path toward carbon neutrality is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's climate and environmental problems remained prominent. Energy transition was the key to improve climate and pollution, and it was at a critical period. Previous studies mostly focused on the impact of climate policies on the reduction of air pollutants and the environmental health impacts of individual sector or pathway policies. Thus, focusing on the synergistic abatement of CO 2 and air pollutants and health effects of energy transition in carbon neutrality was significant for building beautiful and healthy China. LEAP-HEA model was constructed to project energy demand, CO 2 and air pollutants, and assess energy transition's environmental health effects from 2020 to 2060. LMDI model was adopted to decompose the abatement contribution. Synergistic assessment index was used to estimate the coordinated abatement effects. Cost-effectiveness of energy transition and regional heterogeneity of PM 2.5 toxicity were not considered. The results indicated: (1) energy demand would decrease and structure would be optimized significantly under deep energy transition scenario. (2) Deep energy transition could promote earlier realization of carbon neutrality. It would contribute significantly to CO 2 and air pollutants abatement with strong synergistic effects. (3) Energy transition would reduce health risks with large economic benefits. Recommendations were proposed based on the conclusions. The framework of LEAP-HEA model. [Display omitted] • The synergistic abatement and health effect of energy transition were explored. • The models of LEAP, LMDI, exposure-response and the data of 2020 were used. • Energy transition would have significant synergistic abatement and health effect. • The paper has significance for promoting carbon neutrality and healthy China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]