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Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area is a significant carbon emission center. The region's early achievement of peak carbon targets is critical to the nation's achievement of peak carbon targets. In this paper, it is proposed to use different orders of grey models to classify into three scenarios. Based on three scenarios, the grey multivariate convolutional model with new information priority accumulation is adopted to predict carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and select the scenario suitable for local development. The results show that: (1) The Beijing region has already achieved peak carbon, the Tianjin region may not reach its peak carbon target by 2030, and the Hebei region is expected to reach its peak carbon target by 2030. (2) The high rate of carbon emission reduction scenario will greatly improve the air quality of Beijing. The low-speed growth carbon emission scenario is more in line with the future development of Tianjin city. The low-rate carbon reduction scenario is more in line with the synergistic governance of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Hebei Province. (3) Beijing's population policy in the most recent years has been conducive to improving the local environment. Tianjin's medium-term population policy is more in line with the local area. Hebei's medium-term industrial structure reform is favorable to local development. • Grey correlation analysis is used to analyze the factors affected carbon emissions in a region. • The factors with high correlation are predicted by using grey prediction models of different orders. • The high rate of carbon emission reduction scenario will greatly improve the air quality of Beijing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing urbanization but growing resource scarcities, the securing provision of fundamental resources as food, energy and water (FEW) has become a unique challenge for urban sustainability. This is not only because of continuous demand of resource imports from different regions for urban areas, but also due to the complex interrelationships among FEW systems. In such context, exploring the interactions between FEW resources and economic activities when investigating FEW provisions to meet urban demand through trade is very essential to find effective policy intervention points and priority areas for actions. This paper investigates external binding FEW resource flows with internal certain interlinkages driven by final demand of Beijing city at different nodes along their supply chains, by combing structural path analysis and multi-regional input-output model of China 2010. The results show that the key source regions present overall neighborhood pattern that Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong near Beijing are the five leading contributors of tran-regional FEW provisions. The top 20 nexus paths are identified and the most important nexus pathways start with the other services in Beijing. Besides this, the critical supply chains appear divergent directions for FEW flows, driven by food, construction and agriculture industries respectively. Moreover, the key nodes mainly concentrate on less developed regions and energy-related sectors. For example, non-metal products manufacturing in Hebei, petroleum refining and coking in Heilongjiang, and coal mining and washing in Inner Mongolia have larger impacts on all of FEW flows across the supply chains. These results are very informative to targeting our efforts to address the urban FEW nexus issue both from the perspective of supply side and demand side. • Tele-coupling mechanism of urban FEW nexus is explored using MRIO and SPA methods. • Key source regions for urban FEW provisions present neighboring characteristics. • Service sector is the most important final consumption driver for top critical pathways. • Key nodes mainly concentrate on less developed regions and energy-related sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 1990 to 2017, the number of vehicles in China increased sharply from 5 million to 310 million, and vehicle emissions became one of the major sources of air pollution. Among the main sources of PM 2.5 in Beijing, the contributions from vehicle sources increased from 5.6% (2000) to 31.1% (2012) to 45% (2017). In 2010, the CO, hydrocarbon (HC), NO x , and particulate matter (PM) emissions of yellow-label vehicles (YLVs) accounted for 46.1%, 47.9%, 63.1% and 86.1% of the total emissions from on-road vehicles. In recent years, China has been implementing a YLV scrappage subsidy policy to control air pollution, and this policy has cost several hundred billion yuan nationwide. However, China has not evaluated the costs and benefits of the policy. Many people question whether the YLV scrappage subsidy policy is worthwhile, but all the stakeholders involved complicate the process of accurately evaluating the true value of the policy. In this study, we evaluated and compared the costs and benefits of the policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region based on 1.362 million YLVs from 2008 to 2015. Because of the implementation of the policy, the PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO x , CO and HC emissions in the BTH region decreased by 16.46, 18.12, 174.44, 669.11, and 91.64 kt, respectively, in 2008–2015. The results show that the policy played an important role in reducing pollutant emissions and improving environmental quality in the BTH region. The costs, benefits, and net benefits of the policy were 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan , respectively. The cost-benefit ratio in the BTH region was 1:2.49; at the city scale, Beijing ranked first (1:7.27), and the cost-benefit ratios of Tianjin and Hebei Province were 1:2.06 and 1:1.14, respectively. Of the 13 cities in the BTH region, Beijing had the highest net benefits, amounting to 16.43 billion yuan , while Handan City has the lowest net benefits, amounting to −0.58 billion yuan. The results may provide scientific support for the promotion of older vehicle and diesel vehicle scrappage subsidy policies, the development of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and effective environmental decision-making in China. • Based on net number of scrappage YLVs, net benefits of the policy are calculated. • This paper estimates costs and benefits of the policy based on 1.27 million YLVs. • The costs, benefits, and net benefits are 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan. • The results help China promote vehicle scrappage subsidy policy on a large scale. • The results promote the development of the cost-benefit analysis in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though renewable energy development has gained momentum in China, thermal power generation still accounts for approximately 70% of the county's total power generation serving as the major source of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in China. Facing the challenges of meeting 2030 peak target of CO 2 emission and realizing the coordinated development of thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this paper applies generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM) to decompose the dynamics in the relevant CO 2 emission. The effects of five factors including electricity demand, energy consumption, technology, energy efficiency and energy-mix are considered. The decomposition suggests that electricity demand is the primary factor driving the CO 2 emission up, whereas technology effect decreases CO 2 emission the most. Given the significant roles of technology, energy-mix and energy efficiency in CO 2 emissions reduction, seven scenarios are designed to identify the optimal coordinated development pathway for thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Through upgrading energy structure and/or enhancing energy efficiency, the thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can achieve coordinated development and realize the 2030 peak target under four scenarios. The detailed development pathways for CO 2 emissions and specific policy implications for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are provided to further govern CO 2 emissions and maintain sustainable development. • Proposed a five-factor Generalized Divisia Index Model (GDIM) for CO 2 emission analysis. • Analyzed the CO 2 from thermal power generation in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. • Electricity demand and technology contributed the most to the positive and negative changes of CO 2 , respectively. • Designed seven thermal generation development scenarios to study the CO 2 change until 2030. • The 2030 CO 2 peak target can be achieved under four scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-speed rail (HSR) is considered a safe, fast, comfortable and ecological mode of transportation, which has profoundly changed the way passengers travel. However, how green it is and how it affects county air quality remains to be investigated. Based on panel data of 51 counties in southern Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) from 2014 to 2018, Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Propensity-Score-Matching and Difference-in-Difference (PSM-DID) methods are used to study the impact of HSR on air quality in counties. FEM is used as the preliminary regression and PSM-DID model is used to avoid the endogenous problem and selection bias. Research shows that HSR has direct and indirect effects on air quality in counties. HSR directly affects it by changing the way of long-distance travel. Furthermore, HSR indirectly affects it by promoting the regional economy, which affects air quality through scale effects, innovation effects and structural effects caused by regional economy development. The results show that the operation of the HSR reduces the air quality index (AQI) by 11.2% and the concentrations of the three major pollutants index, including PM2.5 by 10.1%, PM10 by 14.8% and O 3 by 11%. We also find that HSR brings at least 4% more environmental benefits on the side closer to Beijing and Tianjin in southern Jing-Jin-Ji than the farther side. Among the two sides, the closer side has more government concern and economic activities. In addition, we conducted further robustness tests and concluded that HSR improves air quality in counties. This paper provides some policy implications for improving county environmental quality and planning of HSR stations. • The direct and indirect impacts of HSR on air quality are considered. • Two models are used to improve the robustness of empirical analysis results. • The results indicate that HSR has positive impacts on air quality of counties. • The impact of HSR on air quality in counties shows regional heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this paper is to build an objective and effective environmental performance evaluation model of air pollution control. Based on the severe air polluted region in China, that is Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this evaluation model consists of four parts, including economic benefits, public service, government management and development potential, and uses the balanced scorecard theory. The weights of the indexes are measured by comprehensive evaluation method, which combined entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). To test the applicability of the evaluation method to different stages, back propagation (BP) neural network is introduced to simulate air pollution control in the future. The results reveal that the environmental performance of air pollution control in Beijing had an upward trend during 2010–2016, and the trend would continue in the next five years. The environmental performance of Tianjin continuously increased, especially from 2014 to 2016. Tianjin has great potential of air pollution control in the future. The environmental performance of air pollution control in Hebei fluctuated from 2010 to 2016 and it dropped to the lowest level in 2015, which mainly due to the large increase in number of days with air quality levelⅡor above compared with 2014 and the nonsignificant growth in the amount of expenditure on atmospheric prevention and control, the amount of investment in the control of industrial pollution sources and the number of law enforcement personnel. Moreover, the environmental performance of air pollution control closely related with industrial structure, especially with the proportion of the tertiary industry. The upgrading of urban industrial structure and the coordinated development of green industry should be implemented to restructure the environmental transformation in air-polluted region. Image 1000 • The traditional Balanced Scorecard is revised and applied into the environmental performance evaluation. • The effective control of vehicle emission directly determines the air quality of Beijing. • A fundamental improvement in air quality in Hebei requires a large amount of environmental investment. • The environmental law enforcement is an important guarantee for air quality improvement of Tianjin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) in China is a key metropolitan area with high development imbalance and serious environment pollution spillovers. While foreign direct investment (FDI) only accounts for 5% of local GDP in this region, Beijing direct investment (BDI) to its two neighbors starts to play an important role in promoting integrated development and tackling regional environmental problems ever since 2014. In this paper, we construct a unique dataset on 157 county-level administrative units in the BTH area as a host of BDI, and test if BDI has resulted in a pollution haven effect or a pollution halo effect in the industrial sector. Results show that BDI has been conducive to reducing industrial pollution emissions in the host administrative units, a pollution halo effect and win-win situation for both Beijing and its neighbors. However, FDI is estimated to have a pollution haven effect for certain industrial pollutants or insignificant. Our results stand with several robustness checks, heterogeneity analysis and a further test on reverse causality, and point to a new avenue for regional environment improvement via environmental friendly and sustainable industrial relocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]